Pomeroy Plays

[Brian891]

Whats your reasoning behind troy? They will have to be hot from 3 point range to have any chance. Shot lights out and still couldnt beat miami oh.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck

[EaglesPhan36]

NC State laying an egg. As I said earlier this week, I think we're able to decipher now a little better which plays that fall into this criteria have better shots than others. I'll keep posting the ones that fall into the formula and then it's player's choice on which ones to take. I think at this point if you tailor the picks towards the ones you like best rather than blindly playing them all, you're probably going to feel better about your picks every day. I certainly am not playing every pick in this formula because some I just flat out disagree with. Maybe when you guys check-in here - the ones who are playing this formula - give your opinions on the picks too. Should help everyone! Good luck!

[EaglesPhan36]

Wow! Helluva push on NC State and win for many who may have taken the line in the afternoon at 15 or so.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Memphis really screwed the pooch in the 2nd half, but FAU fights back for an OT cover. Miracle covers tonight for 2-1.

[mlb]

Well Memphis really screwed the pooch in the 2nd half, but FAU fights back for an OT cover. Miracle covers tonight for 2-1.

profit is profit even if one game is frustrating

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 61-53-2 [+5.30 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 1-0 [+1.00 units]

12.17.10

Arizona State -4.5 [KP -7]

[DuncHen22]

Really tough break on that ASU game.

I still believe in KP but I've started tracking a new system using his numbers. I'm following plays on favorites under a 10pt spread, where KP has their advantage as 2 or greater than the line. So I'm weeding out large spreads and dogs. Large spreads seem to be unpredictable. I'm not sure if weeding out dogs is necessary but it seems like favs cover more often.

Since 12/11 this system is 4-1 (ASU tonight has been the only loss so far). If you add dogs into the system, it's 8-4.

I'm not trying to take over your thread or anything here, I just thought I'd share it for your thoughts and considerations.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 61-54-2 [+4.25 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 1-0 [+1.00 units]

No probs Dunc, keep tracking that for a couple weeks and see if it holds up. If it does, might be something to consider switching to as conference play takes over in January.

12.18.10

UCF +2 [KP -1]
Tulane +12 [KP +9]
Florida +1 [KP -2]
Baylor -7 [KP -12]
Detroit +2 [KP -1]
George Washington +6.5 [KP +4]
LSU +5 [KP +2]
Iowa -3.5 [KP -7]
New Mexico State +3 [KP -1]
Florida State -6 [KP -10]
Syracuse -15 [KP -18]
Nebraska -18.5 [KP -22]
N.Colorado -1.5 [KP -4]
Creighton -18 [KP -21]
W.Kentucky +7.5 [KP +4]

REVERSE PLAYS
Illinois-Chicago +17

Good luck today. Huge number of games fell into the formula. I think we'll find out a lot about what direction this formula is taking after today!

[JR007]

good luck

[EaglesPhan36]

Could be all downhill from here, but the Reverse Play wins as an outright dog, UCF also wins as an outright dog and Tulane covers to start.

[Aussiecapper101]

GL

[EaglesPhan36]

Watching Baylor and I think the same thing I thought about them last year, I don't know how they score points. Their offense seems very disjointed to me with too many isolation type bad decisions from players. They do run stuff, but it doesn't seem like they run it enough. I think they'd be a better team if they ran more.

[EaglesPhan36]

9-5 with FSU to go. A lot of the dogs cashed as outright winners today + the reverse play hit. Very solid day.

[Aussiecapper101]

good stuff I missed alot of them though

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 71-59-2 [+9.00 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 2-0 [+2.00 units]

One of the better days for this. Not sure if I will be available to get Sunday's picks up, but will try.

[Dwell]

Buen trabajo!

[DuncHen22]

Good to see you back on track, Eagles! If you're interested in checking on my tracking thread, here it is.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.19.10

FAU -6.5 [KP -9]
Clemson -26 [KP -30]

Montana State & Washington State also fit into the formula, but since I do these later on Sundays like today ... the lines on both of those have moved so much from the opening lines that I don't think they should be included because of all the movement. But here they as of right now if you want to see how they turn out.

Montana State -2 [KP -5] Montana State opened at +1.5
Washington State -7.5 [KP -10] Washington State opened at -9.5

[DuncHen22]

I never saw an MSU line of +1.5. I saw -1.5, which means it's only moved 0.5. If you saw +1.5 I'm guessing it was a bad line.

[EaglesPhan36]

I may have misread that one, in either case it was good not to play it!

Regular KenPom Plays: 71-61-2 [+6.90 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 2-0 [+2.00 units]

I'll try to get today's plays if the books release any lines any time soon.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.20.10

REVERSE PLAYS
Elon +36.5

[zanman822]

Eagles I assume thats the only play for tonight?

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah that was the only one that fit. The line has moved in more in favor of a "reverse" at 34.5. KenPom has the game as a 43 point differential.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 71-61-2 [+6.90 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 3-0 [+3.00 units]

Another cover on a reverse play.

[EaglesPhan36]

12.21.10

Kent State -13 [KP -16]
Cincinnati -7.5 [KP -10]
North Carolina -21 [KP -25]
UNLV +4 [KP +1]
New Mexico State -9.5 [KP -12]
Vanderbilt -12.5 [KP -16]
Miami -6.5 [KP -9]
Austin Peay -2.5 [KP -5]
BYU -12.5 [KP -16]
UCLA -16 [KP -21]
St.Francis +9 [KP +6]

[rpdiddy]

Nevermind

[EaglesPhan36]

Just FYI, I may or may not be able to post these plays for the remainder of the week due to holiday travel plans. Will try to do tomorrow's if possible before I hit the road because there is a full slate of games. Thursday & Friday for sure I will not be posting. Shouldn't be a huge deal through the weekend as the slate of games is very light due to Christmas.

Hope you guys have a safe holiday! See ya back after a nice little break. Get that cash!

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

hey good luck buddy!

[EaglesPhan36]

Added one play that was added into the lines this afternoon - St.Francis.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 77-64-4 [+9.75 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 3-0 [+3.00 units]

6-3-2, not bad at all.

[Aussiecapper101]

Tailed u on ucla -15.5 and won by the hook! Good stuff keep it up! Ps your original line was 16 and that guy missed both free throws at the end so your were unlucky if u pushed on that one

[madmiek]

Good job

[EaglesPhan36]

12.27.10

Missouri -24.5 [KP -30]
Pittsburgh -7 [KP -10]
Ohio State -36 [KP -41]

Back to the grind!

[Brian891]

How do u feel about UAB EP? DO u think they win? Love getting ur input.