Pomeroy Plays

[EaglesPhan36]

Alright, my own picks have been well .. atrocious, but I have been keeping track of the Pomeroy Rankings already. For anyone not familiar, check 'em out you.

https://www.kenpom.com

Guy basically factors in all the important things in the game, including tempo, efficiency and several other things. Certainly there is a small sample size so far, but I've noticed a few things that I want to track with this thread instead of making my own stupid plays. Here's what I have noticed:

When his scoreline predicts the FAVORITE will win by more than 2-2.5 points more than the actual line, taking the FAVORITE is advisable.

When his scoreline predicts the UNDERDOG to lose by 2-2.5 points less than the line, taking the UNDERDOG is advisable.

This certainly will not work in all games, but I am going to try to pick out the ones that have the biggest margins of difference to track and see how it goes. Will start with some of the night games tonight.

Totals so far, it is too early to tell what his predictions will do. Do what you will with this info. Hopefully it helps make some profits somehow. What I will include below is the actual line and in parenthesis, the KenPom prediction.

11.19.10

1. KENTUCKY -5.5 [KENPOM -8]
2. PENN STATE -9 [KENPOM -12]

[EaglesPhan36]

11.19.10: [2-0 ats]

[Jive]

Couldn't live without KenPom. After he has player stats integrated next month, that site is a godsend.

[agharah1]

Indeed, just be careful since he uses preseason stats this early.

[EaglesPhan36]

Interesting day today as he has three dogs as straight up winners today and a very large point margin disparity for Auburn. Will list the opponent too to help add to the ease of following this thread hopefully. Going to try to keep these plays at five at the most on the busiest days like today. That means I may skip over a couple that fall into the categories for use, but they are ones that don't appear as strong.

11.20.10

1. SIENA +4.5 [KENPOM -1] NORTHEASTERN
2. RIDER +2.5 [KENPOM -1] TCU
3. UCSB -10.5 [KENPOM -13] FRESNO STATE
4. AUBURN -3.5 [KENPOM -10] CAMPBELL
5. DAYTON +7 [KENPOM +4] MISSISSIPPI

[hankcream]

Are you using his stats for totals yet? Later in the year it's very helpful. Good luck

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeah I am going to wait until at least December to start looking heavily at totals.

[SargeantHooker]

Thanks for starting this thread E.P. I'll continue to check it daily.

[sonnybaby]

siena was to easy

[JR007]

I am familiar with Kenpom...but sharps hit both Northeastern and the over in this game

[EaglesPhan36]

Well then sharps got murdered on Siena. Good start to the day. Took the points myself, but Siena is crushing Northeastern.

[EaglesPhan36]

Rider also going to cash as a straight up win. Nice start. I think the Auburn one is the most interesting to me because they have been very poor.

[gamble]

i was looking at auburns loss to samford, samford had 2 guys shoot a combined 13-17 from 3, samford made 18 total 3's in the game, could just be a case of ridiculous shooting for that loss

[HoulihansTX]

Thanks for posting.

[agharah1]

Kenpom predicted Butler would win by 9 today, 4 points less than the spread. They won by 33.

[EaglesPhan36]

I didn't think that Auburn one was going to pan out, but followed the "rules" anyway to see how this experiment works.

[EaglesPhan36]

Dayton also going to cash as an outright winner. 3-1 ATS going into the nightcap. Another profitable day!

[EaglesPhan36]

11.20.10: [4-1 ats]

[EaglesPhan36]

From what I have seen the first days of tracking this, the ones where we see larger point disparities [SIX or more] have not worked out so well - like Auburn yesterday. Siena worked at 5.5, so I'd like to see how these big differentials pan out before suggesting following them blindly. Some make sense, the Auburn one did not. The ones below I was a little iffy on, but I do think ECU covers against a very bad team. But let's track those too so that I don't automatically discount them in the future ...

ECU -10 [-16]
PORTLAND STATE -4.5 [-12]
CAL POLY +6.5 [+1]

Will have the picks that fit the criteria best for today in a moment. Updated with a couple more big point margins here to track today.

[zanman822]

Nice work eagles keep it up.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.21.10

1. Virginia tech -16.5 [kenpom-20] unc-greensboro
2. Creighton +6 [kenpom +2] iowa state
3. Austin peay +6 [kenpom +3] southern illinois
4. Bradley +1.5 [KENPOM -4] TCU
5. Xavier +1.5 [kenpom -1] seton hall

Updated as the George Mason line just moved. Bradley in, Mason out.

[TxBulldog]

11.21.10 1. Virginia tech -16.5 [kenpom-20] unc-greensboro 2. Creighton +6 [kenpom +2] iowa state 3. Austin peay +6 [kenpom +3] southern illinois 4. Bradley +1.5 [KENPOM -4] TCU 5. Xavier +1.5 [kenpom -1] seton hall Updated as the George Mason line just moved. Bradley in, Mason out.

Absolutely agree with this system on AP and Xav. Hate Creighton and Bradley and have no opinion on VT.
We shall see....very interesting thread.

[EaglesPhan36]

Once again the big point disparity leads to a loss as ECU wins by 8, did not cover the spread. Will continue to follow these 6 pt. or more differentials.

[EaglesPhan36]

Va.Tech cashes the first one, winning by 20+

[EaglesPhan36]

Austin Peay misses the cover by one point.
Creighton cashes.

[Squirrel]

Good luck with this EP, i'm also look at Pomeroy plays but using a couple of different filters to see what happens

[EaglesPhan36]

Bradley loses by six, they were up 62-60 with about 2:00 left and got outscored 14-6. Need Xavier to pull a winning night.

[Dwell]

Intriguing idea...I think it would also be interesting to find situations to fade a large disparity between kenpom and the line. Basic premise: this team should win by X points, the line is this many points, the line doesn't make sense, something's up.

[matthewsg]

Really like KenPom's stuff. Don't always have time to sort through it all, so thanks for taking the time to do so and post.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.21.10: [3-2 ats]

Will get today's stuff posted hopefully in the next hour or so.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.22.10

1. ST.PETER'S +11.5 [KENPOM +7] ALABAMA
2. OKLAHOMA +15 [KENPOM +12] KENTUCKY
3. DUQUESNE -3 [KENPOM -6] BOWLING GREEN
4. MISSISSIPPI STATE -7 [KENPOM -12] DETROIT
5. VIRGINIA +12.5 [KENPOM +8] WASHINGTON

There are some games that lines have not been put out for yet, but the above ones definitely fall into line with what we're trying to go along with on these KenPom plays. Still working out the kinks on where to draw the line on the point differential. We had a 5.5 work out with Siena and one of the ones to track yesterday on Portland State was big at 7.5 and they covered ... for now, I'm going to keep it around 5-5.5 and anything bigger, keep off the table.

[justwinthisone]

i will be very interested to see how the st peters game ends. they dont look good at all on paper

[Barnes01]

so in blue is who u are taking or the team in bold black

[EaglesPhan36]

Blue team is the one to take, black is just listing who they are playing. Started doing that for people who want to know that info and/or do their own research to back-up making a play on these or go away from making a play.

The OU & Virginia ones are the two I will be eager to see how they turn out because on paper, I don't necessarily agree with them.

[zanman822]

You got some great games there Eagles all look good but may take Washington in the first half only.