Pomeroy Plays

[cobeez]

Will be playing a few of these today.

[Thunder Gulch]

Good stuff here

[sonnybaby]

bol to u

[EaglesPhan36]

11.22.10
1. ST.PETER'S +11.5 [KENPOM +7] ALABAMA
2. OKLAHOMA +15 [KENPOM +12] KENTUCKY
3. DUQUESNE -3 [KENPOM -6] BOWLING GREEN
4. MISSISSIPPI STATE -7 [KENPOM -12] DETROIT
5. VIRGINIA +12.5 [KENPOM +8] WASHINGTON

Finished with the other lines posted now. Not going to say pick either of those over another because that's your choice, but these will give you a couple more options.

XAVIER +3 [KENPOM -1] OLD DOMINION
BELMONT -14.5 [KENPOM -17] MARIST

EDIT: Swapping in Belmont over Oklahoma as the OU line has come down to 13.5 now and falls OUT of the plays. Xavier in for Virginia as I think it fits better into the realm of possibilities.

[usainbolt]

Thanks Eagles - I wish you the same success as your tennis picks. Good Luck
Quick question - I know you are still in early stages of testing this, but do you think we could tease the spreads on these teams and have any or lil success. thanks. Fly Eagles Fly

[EaglesPhan36]

Based on early returns, it looks like the ones that fall into the 2.5-4 point differential have played out to be the most solid picks, so perhaps teasing the ones that fall into that criteria on a given day to test that theory out?

[eatdust11]

Interesting trends here.. I'm on Duquesne and Belmont

[JFCvsRXB]

Agree 100 percent on the Virgina call. Tony Bennett has a history against Washington as the former coach of Washington St, and has always kept their games close and low scoring. I really think Virginia will keep this one close.

If Washington covers this, watch out for the Huskies.

[usainbolt]

Great start with St. Pete winning SU!

[Brock Landers]

St Peter's cashed. EaglesPhan, this Pomeroy angle is no bullshit!

[JR007]

Good luck with this

[EaglesPhan36]

We'll see. Small sample size so far, but you've got to like three consecutive winning days and of the three picks that missed, only one was really far off from the outcome and it was one that I think was a red flag for most people [Auburn] any how.

[teecee]

princeton seems as though they would fit into your criteria. just don't like princeton today, i guess. is that a safe assumption?

[teecee]

i see now that the opening line for the princeton game was exactly what pom has prescribed (+3), and has now moved to +5.5.

[CrimsonQueen]

Fair word of warning; I basically followed this strategy last year for a while... and after it lost 13 straight games... I finally stopped. 13 straight. About half way through the year. Be careful!!

[EaglesPhan36]

As with any "system" there are going to be highs and lows. That's why I hope anyone trying this out will be wise and run all their picks for the same unit size.

[THE PROFIT]

I have never followed this on spreads, but solid on totals after first of the year

[JR007]

Pomeroy usually posts his predictions on totals after about 25 games in

[dogman]

I think we should come up with a number difference in his line and the offshore lines and then keep a record to see how faring. I am thinking a difference of 3-5 points or maybe 2.5-4.5 to be a play. After that we have to decide when they should be played, should we wait close to gametime or earlier in the day because of line movements. Any ideas?

[dogman]

JUst curious does anyone know what the thrill score means on his site?

[JR007]

I was wrong...if you go to pomeroy /click stats/ click on a particular team....it will give you the "projected score"

[EaglesPhan36]

St.Peter's & Belmont both cash, so a good start. Looks like getting off the OU one may work out as they are down by 14. We'll see.

[JR007]

for what its worth the guy in forum I told you about had under Bowling Green.....he took the stats fg% ft%etc

[EaglesPhan36]

Everything is cashing so far, including the OU one that I took off the table. I've pretty much upped the starting point now to at least a 2.5 point differential to start with to consider a pick and have put the cutoff at 5.5 where anything over a 5.5 point differential has not worked very well so far.

[dogman]

So let's use a 2.5-5.5 for a play. The only thing now is when to play the games that qualify. Lines for tomorrow are up on some games, should they be played now if they qualify or would it be better to wait closer to gametime. For ex., Oaklahoma was a play based on the opener but today moved out of the point range to qualify.

It may come down to getting the best number. If one took Oak.at +15 even though it was a no play by the closer, getting +15 would be a number that would qualify for a play.

[EaglesPhan36]

I look at the lines in the morning at my book. From what I have seen so far, I think it's better to get the lines early and not worry about line movement.

[EaglesPhan36]

Mississippi State blew a double digit lead in the 2nd half and I think misses a FT at the end, blows the cover winning by 6. Still like that even the losses here are pretty much spot on with some variables making the difference.

[EaglesPhan36]

11.22.10: [3-2 ats]

The two extra picks that I subbed out were OU & Virginia. OU covered. UVA playing in a bit. Regardless, another winning day.

[Balco10]

Why do you like UV over UW?????

[usainbolt]

Looks good so far. Thanks EP for taking time to post these picks.
got some teasers hit appreciate it

[EaglesPhan36]

Why do you like UV over UW?????

This has nothing to do with what I like. It's simply following a formula based on the Pomeroy Rankings. Visit kenpom.com to learn a bunch of stuff about hoops! Lots of great stats and angles to help your formulate your own plays. I am simply posting the games that fall into the formula where his predictions are 2.5 points or better from the actual line. For Virginia, they are +12.5 ... KenPom predicted score has them only losing by 8 which falls into the formula.

[Jive]

JUst curious does anyone know what the thrill score means on his site?

Here is Ken's explanation:

FanMatch was developed by trained engineers with Ph.D.’s in psychology who understand the 23 natural factors that enhance a fan’s viewing experience. The staff at FanMatch is constantly looking for games over the next three days that you will enjoy. It evaluates each of these 23 factors independently for every game on the upcoming schedule, and combined with the personal information and cookies stored on your computer, determines just how likely you are to enjoy an evening with each one. Once a match is selected for you, FanMatch engineers then contact the coaches and game officials scheduled to work the selected game to ensure that the action is maximized for your entertainment. This means no more wasted evenings spent with a lower-tier SEC contest! You can’t lose with FanMatch!!


Actually, the games are rated for competitiveness and level of play with a lean towards higher-scoring games without using any cookies. Because that’s what I like to see, and basically, everybody likes what I like. And I don’t tell you what network each game is on or what time it’s played at. You have to do a little work to figure out how to see the game. But once you do, you’re almost guaranteed* to enjoy your viewing experience!



*Chance of pleasurable hoops experience (CPHE) given by the percentage to the right of the game. No, I will not tell you what the formula for CPHE is. [Note: As of 11/11/10, CPHE has been re-branded as ThrillScoreTM.]

[usainbolt]

11/23 early watchlist based on tonight's line


HOUSTON -9 [KENPOM -13] vs UL Lafayette
UTEP -12.5 [KENPOM -15] vs New Mexico State
PROVIDENCE -5 [KENPON -8] vs Lasalle
ST. JOSEPH'S +8 [KENPON +5] vs Fairfield
CANISIUS -4.5 [KENPON -8] vs Buffalo
SAINT LOUIS -10 [KENPON -14] vs Tennessee State

hopefully EP's list will have some of these. thanks

[JR007]

got to be careful of line moves......Bowling green went from 134 to 137 last nite...under lost

[VicVega91]

Thank you for all of the work!!