Pomeroy Plays

HoulihansTX · 01-07-11, 02:33 PM

Taking the over in that matchup.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-07-11, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by tonislug

how does this game fit the criteria, kp says 16 vs line 14. Thought the differential had to be 6 or better???

2.5-5.5. Anything more than six would be a reverse play where you would take the team + the points. Not a Pomeroy Play, but the only game I am playing is Cleveland State + the points. Vikings are very under the radar I think.

DaOutlaw1x · 01-07-11, 08:42 PM

I went with you on Cleveland State , they must be having a terrible night

EaglesPhan36 · 01-08-11, 12:29 AM

Regular KenPom Plays: 106-88-7 [+13.60 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-1 [+2.95 units]

Going to try to start posting Saturdays plays on Friday night. Lines should be closer to the opener and hopefully stay true to the formula. Plus this is far easier for me to get done than trying to wake up in time to do this on a Saturday morning. You may want to monitor carefully some of the 2.5 point plays as they could be a little iffy since there probably is some line movement that happens overnight that normally might be already factored in when I used to post on Saturday mornings. Anything at 3 or more should be fine as far as not being effected by doing these on Friday night. Highlighted the 2.5 point ones for ease of viewing.

1.8.11

Pittsburgh -8 [KP -12]
Utah State -7 [KP -11]
Harvard -10 [KP -13]
Boston College -5.5 [KP -9]
Kentucky -5.5 [KP -10]
Ball State -3.5 [KP -6]
UCF -8 [KP -13]
Vanderbilt -5.5 [KP -9]
LSU +2 [KP -2]
James Madison -6 [KP -10]
UALR -8 [KP -12]
St.Mary's 14.5 [KP -18]
Loyola MT -12.5 [KP -15]
UNLV -14.5 [KP -19]
UNC-Greensboro +3.5 [KP +1]
Elon -1.5 [KP -4]

REVERSE PLAY
Oregon State +20

HoulihansTX · 01-08-11, 04:50 PM

Whats the late play?

beefcake · 01-08-11, 04:59 PM

Good stuff EP as usual..Appreciate all the work..

EaglesPhan36 · 01-09-11, 12:54 AM

1.9.11

Ohio State -15.5 [KP -19]
Louisville -7.5 [KP -10]
Butler -22.5 [KP -28]
Indiana State +1.5 [KP -2]
Bradley +12 [KP +9]
Maryland +15.5 [KP +13]
Siena -8.5 [KP -11]

jimmyg2727 · 01-09-11, 11:45 AM

Thanks

HoulihansTX · 01-09-11, 11:49 AM

Dont bet against Duke at home. unless you are getting 20 or more points.

jimmyg2727 · 01-09-11, 11:52 AM

I like Bradley!!

EaglesPhan36 · 01-09-11, 01:35 PM

Regular KenPom Plays: 114-95-8 [+14.25 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-2 [+1.90 units]

EaglesPhan36 · 01-09-11, 09:33 PM

These short dogs have been pretty solid as outright winners when they fit into the formula. Might be something to keep an eye on. If Maryland doesn't fade, should be a winning day.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-09-11, 10:15 PM

Regular KenPom Plays: 118-98-8 [+15.10 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-2 [+1.90 units]

4-3 on Sunday.

bigkrezca32 · 01-09-11, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Dont bet against Duke at home. unless you are getting 20 or more points.

Why? What good team has lost by 20 at duke? Then again they haven't played too many
good teams this year.

I was on MD +14 1/2 as soon as that I saw that line. Duke without Irving simply is not 15 pts better than MD, even at home, and that was shown today...

Thank god for today....was a disastrous 2-12 in bets yesterday (mostly CBB). Luckily today made up for that and a bit more with big plays on the Ravens and Packers as well as MD and Northwestern...

HoulihansTX · 01-10-11, 12:42 AM

Its still scary to bet against Duke at home.

But congrats on your win.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-10-11, 09:10 AM

1.10.11

Austin Peay -10.5 [KP -14]

HoulihansTX · 01-10-11, 10:08 AM

All over it.

teecee · 01-10-11, 12:55 PM

i played the only 3 that lost. lol.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-11-11, 09:12 AM

Regular KenPom Plays: 118-99-8 [+14.05 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-2 [+1.90 units]

1.11.11

Wisconsin +3.5 [KP +1]
Kentucky -25.5 [KP -29]
BYU -12.5 [KP -16]

Just pointing out from my own recollection, BYU has been pretty awful at covering when listed in this formula. Not that they can't or won't here, just saying that is one of the teams that has stuck out when they wind up on the list.

BookiesBernanke · 01-11-11, 10:15 AM

BYU and Utah are bitter rivals so no matter what both teams play as hard as they can - Utah sucks this year and BYU is looking very good but this rivalry is VERY bitter and so they both usually play above their ability

Balco10 · 01-11-11, 11:03 AM

Originally posted by BookiesBernanke

BYU and Utah are bitter rivals so no matter what both teams play as hard as they can - Utah sucks this year and BYU is looking very good but this rivalry is VERY bitter and so they both usually play above their ability

Good point BB!

yisman · 01-11-11, 06:15 PM

Shouldn't Kentucky be a play?

EaglesPhan36 · 01-11-11, 10:25 PM

Regular KenPom Plays: 120-100-8 [+15.00 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-2 [+1.90 units]

2-1 narrow miss on Kentucky.

peterpan19 · 01-12-11, 03:43 AM

wasnt BC and Texas a play too ?

HedgeHog · 01-12-11, 08:28 AM

Kentucky closed at -24 at The Greek and Bookmaker, possible push for late players. Personally I pass on lines that high. Enjoy this thread and appreciate the work put into it.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-11, 09:43 AM

1.12.11

Ball State -6 [KP -9]
Duke -8.5 [KP -12]
UNLV +4.5 [KP +2]
Pittsburgh +3 [KP -1]

REVERSE PLAY
Wake Forest +12

There are plays that slip into the 2.5 area that I am leaving out due to line movement off the opening number. I am trying to streamline this formula in that manner & have been slowly doing so, so you will find some plays at your book that fit into the formula that are not listed. I think keeping these borderline plays out - hopefully will keep the win % higher.

DaOutlaw1x · 01-12-11, 10:08 AM

I agree eagle BOL today and thanks for your hard work

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-11, 10:11 AM

Should also add that I am keeping the reverse plays [those that are 6 points or more differential] as a test through January. If they show to be less than 50% ... I'll quit posting those.

HedgeHog · 01-12-11, 10:14 AM

There's a 3.5 point advantage on Pitt +2.5 to win by 1. I'm playing this one along with the other listed picks. TY again for all you do.

HoulihansTX · 01-12-11, 10:19 AM

I like to play the games were the line moves against the formula.

So if Team X is favored by -5, and the formula has them winning by 8. But the line moves down to -4, I really like the play.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-11, 10:21 AM

Thanks for pointing that one out, guess my eyes were crossed on that. Pitt +3 is a play now.

HoulihansTX · 01-12-11, 10:23 AM

Is not Nebraska +11.5 a play? Formula has them losing by 5.

EaglesPhan36 · 01-12-11, 10:28 AM

I kept that one out due to line movement/confusion. At +11.5, it's a 6.5 difference and would technically be a reverse play on Missouri, but it opened at +10 which would have put it on Nebraska. To me that was way too confusing to figure out who you should be on, so I just kept the confusion out.

HoulihansTX · 01-12-11, 10:31 AM

Ok the Duke line is really low, so I would be on the look out for INJ's.

Thanks for your efforts.

jjgolf · 01-12-11, 12:44 PM

i notice that ball st always lately fall imto there system