Pomeroy Plays

[No coincidences]

I don't understand the SD State-UNLV line, or KenPom's score analysis.

I've seen both of these teams play; SDS is superior in every way IMHO.

[Bcatswin]

Like UNLV to along with Cincinnati...

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 122-102-8 [+14.90 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-3 [+0.85 units]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.13.11

Richmond -10 [KP -14]
Buffalo +2.5 [KP -1]
Purdue -3 [KP -8]
Loyola-Chicago +2 [KP -1]
W.Kentucky -4.5 [KP -7]
Mississippi -12 [KP -15]
Santa Clara -6.5 [KP -9]
Washington -7.5 [KP -11]
Elon +7.5 [KP +4]

[jackmyhoggoff]

Northern Colo. ?

[HedgeHog]

Northern Colo. ?

-13.5 to win by 16 is a borderline play. Early line was -14 which is why I think it wasn't included.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yes, that is correct. I'm trying to weed out the borderline plays where the opening lines are BELOW the 2.5 point differential, but then move into the criteria with the line movement.

[HoulihansTX]

I like to play the games were the line moves against the formula. So if Team X is favored by -5, and the formula has them winning by 8. But the line moves down to -4, I really like the play.

Keep an eye out on this.

Purdue
Buffalo
and Washington fit this criteria.

[ukbsktbll]

Picking picks that I like off this system are proving profitable

[HoulihansTX]

I would stay away from Santa Clara. They suck, the reason they are favored is b/c San Diego very poor team.

[zephyr]

Hey Eagles. I've been watching this thread. It's useful. Thanks.

[ufcmma36]

bol bro

[BigDofBA]

The system likes Loyola-Chicago and I already took WISC-GB.

hmmmm....I wonder if I should get out of this bet. Does anyone else like Wisc-GB in this one?

[HedgeHog]

Passing on Loy-Chi myself as they are cold of late. Ratings haven't caught up to their collapse IMO.

[ricohhh]

bol lets cash some tickets

[HedgeHog]

Purdue( by 8) has dropped to- 2.5 ( I bet at -3), which puts it at the upper end of the spectrum. If the line drops another 1/2, the other side becomes the play.

[HoulihansTX]

I took Purdue on the ML. Let's remember Minny is the samre team that was in a dog fight with the lowly Hooiers. Purdue or nothing.

[EaglesPhan36]

One of those days. Some people might have scored with Buffalo & Loyola depending where you got the price though. For our tracking purposes, shitty losses.

Regular KenPom Plays: 124-109-8 [+9.55 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-3 [+0.85 units]

[yisman]

didn't bet washington but had them in a contest. Put a streak of 5 on them and all they needed to do was win!

truth is I didn't bet any college today, although Minnesota seemed like it was in a favorable situation, and that would've been my bet had I done anything.

[craigpb]

Not a good day for the favs today.

[EaglesPhan36]

No plays for Friday, January 14th.

[EaglesPhan36]

One did fit after they posted the lines for two small games tonight.

1.14.11

Mercer +2.5 [KP -1]

[ROYAJA8]

Bet fairfield its a winner.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 124-110-8 [+8.50 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-3 [+0.85 units]

1.15.11

Connecticut -9 [KP -12]
Loyola-Chicago +3.5 [KP +1]
N.Illinois -11 [KP -15]
Central Florida +2 [KP -2]
Oregon _4.5 [KP +2]
Drexel -7.5 [KP -11]
Virginia Tech -19.5 [KP -22]
North Texas -5 [KP -8]
San Francisco -4.5 [KP -7]
St.Mary's -18.5 [KP -23]
Furman -11 [KP -14]
Morehead State -7.5 [KP -10]
Northern Arizona -16.5 [KP -20]

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 131-116-8 [+9.20 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-3 [+0.85 units]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.16.11

Notre Dame +2.5 [KP -1]
Valparaiso +2 [KP -1]
Miami (OH) +1 [KP -2]
Purdue +2 [KP -1]
Iowa +10.5 [KP +8]
North Carolina -5.5 [KP -9]
Iona -21 [KP -24]

[HedgeHog]

I'm liking some of these dogs today. GL.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 134-120-8 [+8.00 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-3 [+0.85 units]

[EaglesPhan36]

1.17.11

Idaho +4.5 [KP +1]

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 135-120-8 [+9.00 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-3 [+0.85 units]

1.18.11

Nebraska -4 [KP -7]
Kentucky -4 [KP -7]
BYU -20.5 [KP -24]

[Chandler]

very interesting experiment. Keep it up!

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 136-122-8 [+7.90 units]
Reverse KenPom Plays: 4-3 [+0.85 units]

Noticing both Kentucky and BYU are regular misses when they fit into this criteria. Something to consider for the future.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.19.11

Ohio PK [KP -3]
Ball State -3.5 [KP -8]
St.Joseph's +2 [KP -1]
Duquesne -6 [KP -10]
Richmond -13.5 [KP -16]
Tulsa -2 [KP -6]
Vanderbilt -10.5 [KP -14]
Long Beach State -6 [KP -9]

REVERSE PLAYS
NC STATE +10
OKLAHOMA STATE -4.5

These reverse plays are fringe plays at a six point differential, so keep that in mind. A few lines were omitted today because of movement from the opening line.

[HoulihansTX]

Richmond has not5 faired well, when posted. Maybe overrated.

I like Duquense// and Ohio.

[EaglesPhan36]

Maybe not over rated, but maybe over valued as a favorite by bookies. The line tonight seems pretty hard to like, but it depends which GW shows up. The one that beat Oregon State and St.Joe's on the road of the one that lost to UAB by 35 on the road? Also have to consider Richmond beat Purdue this season, but also just got dropped by Rhode Island at home.