Pomeroy Plays

[Ralphie1412]

Maybe not over rated, but maybe over valued as a favorite by bookies. The line tonight seems pretty hard to like, but it depends which GW shows up. The one that beat Oregon State and St.Joe's on the road of the one that lost to UAB by 35 on the road? Also have to consider Richmond beat Purdue this season, but also just got dropped by Rhode Island at home.

Aaaaaand this is the type of shit that keeps me up at night. I love college sports but they are still kids and you never know which team will show up unless its the top 5 teams. Appalachian St. lost to Eastern Tennessee and Texas San Marcos and then ROLLED Davidson on the road. uhhh what?

[EaglesPhan36]

Think the Reverse Plays experiment will officially retire now. These seem hit or miss and nothing extraordinary.

[HoulihansTX]

Richmond has not5 faired well, when posted. Maybe overrated. I like Duquense// and Ohio.

We will from this point on, ignore all Richmond plays. They are vastly overrated.

[EaglesPhan36]

Ball State conversely I think is unbeaten when they fall on the list. Some rough days lately. Said we'd need to watch once conference play began to see if this formula would hold up. Going to track specifically the record over the next 10 days which will be listed underneath the season total. If the downward trend continues, could be time to bail on this criteria and use this information for next year as in playing this formula UNTIL conference play begins. We shall see.

Regular KenPom Plays: 138-128-8 [+3.30 units]

1.20.11

Wright State -7.5 [KP -10]
New Mexico State +2 [KP -1]
UNC-Greensboro -7.5 [KP -11]
Rider -17.5 [KP -21]
Northern Arizona -7.5 [KP -10]
Northern Colorado -10 [KP -14]

[HoulihansTX]

Rider definately

[zephyr]

I'd be careful with the New Mexico State play. Young Nevada team seems to be getting it together a little bit in conference play. At home tonight, returning to Reno to cheers and with some confidence after a good win at Boise State, I'm thinking this could be a good spot for the Wolf Pack, against a New Mexico State team that has been only so-so on the road.

[xelance]

im on the wright state pick for sure. It is now at -7

[Jive]

Good luck tonight everyone.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.21.11

Iona -15 [KP -19]

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 139-133-8 [-0.95 units]
10 Day Tracker: 1-5

I think this weekend is going to tell whether this experiment needs to be shut down or not. If this winds up under .500 this weekend, I am going to stop with these plays as conference play will have apparently have negated the edge we saw with this formula in non-conference play.

[lilchal215]

well find outt

[EaglesPhan36]

It's probably safe to say this formula should not be used when conference play starts. Just looked. In the past two weeks from Jan.7-Jan.21: 33-45-1.

[HoulihansTX]

tough sledding for sure

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 139-134-8 [-2.00 units]
10 Day Tracker: 1-6

This is pretty much a do or die day for this formula. .500 or under and I think this officially closes the Pomeroy Plays as the conference season has killed this edge.

1.22.11

George Mason +1 [KP -4]
Connecticut -6.5 [KP -9]
Duquesne -15 [KP -18]
Yale -6.5 [KP -9]
Drexel -9 [KP -13]
Buffalo +2 [KP -1]
Air Force -6.5 [KP -9]
Loyola Chicago -10 [KP -13]
Pittsburgh -16.5 [KP -20]
Georgia -10 [KP -14]
Washington -18.5 [KP -24]
Louisville -5 [KP -9]
Alabama -10.5 [KP -13]
Kentucky -7.5 [KP -10]
Ball State -10 [KP -13]
St.Joseph's +2 [KP -2]
UTEP -5 [KP -8]
Nevada -9.5 [KP -12]
Charleston -13.5 [KP -17]
Furman -11.5 [KP -14]
Elon -14 [KP -18]
Austin Peay -14.5 [KP -17]

[BrewMaster]

Thanks bro I still have faith in it!

[EaglesPhan36]

12-8-2 and three losses were by half points. I'm gonna rest on Sunday.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 151-142-10 [+1.60 units]
10 Day Tracker: 13-14-1

Gonna keep tracking this through the end of the month to see if Saturday was a solid day or just a brief blip back in the right direction.

1.24.11

VCU -10.5 [KP -13]
George Mason -7 [KP -10]
Ball State -2.5 [KP -6]

[HoulihansTX]

Thanks bro I still have faith in it!

I'm surviving on straight will power.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks for the points by the way. Ball State has been very good in this formula. Other two I think are suspect, but I think one of them will hit.

[LLXC]

Somebody did mention earlier in this thread that once conference started, it went down hill?

[ricohhh]

thank for these. bol.

[WIZARDOFBEANTOWN]

good luck tonight ep

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 152-144-10 [+0.50 units]
10 Day Tracker: 14-16-1

1.25.11

Richmond +1 [KP -2]
Kansas -7.5 [KP -11]

A couple lines again not included here even though they fit into the formula now because of their movement off the opening line.

[zanman822]

Eagles, Not disagreeing with the plays but isnt Colorado pretty good on thier home court?

[EaglesPhan36]

Yep. They haven't lost yet. Definitely not one I really like, but it falls into the formula.

[AbeFroman]

Hey Eagles,

Been tracking along with ya for the better portion of the season, thanks for your hardwork!

However, as you've been suspecting lately, I think conference play has killed KenPom from being a successful moneymaker. I have tracked games that you have not post just out of curiosity, and it is under .500 even adding those games in.

Threw some points your way.. Thanks again!

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks for the info on your tracking Abe. I'm going to keep this going through this week and see where the record over the ten day period winds up. One thing I have noticed is that road favorites that fit into the formula seem to not cover fairly routinely now. Might be worth noting to play the underdogs in those match-ups if that trend holds.

[Brian891]

Lets go jayhawks!

[yisman]

UConn was +5 and kenpom said +2.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 153-145-10 [+0.45 units]
10 Day Tracker: 15-17-1

1.26.11

Villanova -6 [KP -9]
Wichita State -5.5 [KP -8]
East Carolina +2 [KP -1]
St.Joseph's +3.5 [KP +1]
Xavier -13 [KP -16]
Duquesne -14.5 [KP -19]
Texas -4.5 [KP -9]
UCF +5 [KP +2]
Iowa State -11 [KP -16]
Charleston -17 [KP -21]

I highlighted the road favorites. Going to track how many of them fail to cover because this might be a new twist to this formula that will be profitable down the stretch - to take the home dog. Kansas did not cover last night.

[grzftbl]

I haven't tracked either but it seems to me "massey ratings" projections are closer to Pomeroy.

Just my opinion, could be wrong--NOT BASHING-- as I look @ both.

Enjoy and GL.

[HoulihansTX]

UCF been playing like shit lately, but I like them today.

[EaglesPhan36]

Regular KenPom Plays: 156-151-10 [-2.95 units]
10 Day Tracker: 18-23-1

Looking very poor. The road favorites who fell into the formula were 3-2 last night. Just going to list the lines that fall into the formula here and follow this road favorites aspect to see if it holds true that they cover less than 50%. Otherwise, this formula should be dropped when conference play starts - for sure.

[EaglesPhan36]

1.27.11

Cleveland State -10 [KP -13]
Idaho -1 [KP -4]
Arizona -8 [KP -11]
UC-Irvine -6.5 [KP -10]
San Francisco +4 [KP +1]
St.Mary's +3 [KP -3]
Portland State +2 [KP -1]

St.Mary's is just outside the formula at the current line, but opened at +2.5, so I included it. Bolded teams are the road favorites.

[zephyr]

RLM on that Idaho game. It's a very tempting line, but I say be careful with it.