LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/21/2012 Recap

2 - 0 = +2x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

44 - 35 = +8.95x

We move onto Sunday and look to keep the momentum rolling. Good luck.

[pokerwhiz90]

NICE! you saved my abysmal day in college ball!

[PolishSensation]

Thanks LTA! Appreciate all the hard work.

[TC Woods]

Tomorrow is a light day in the NBA so I better come up with some NFL bets...

Where are you leaning?

[doogtonmai]

Great work, LTA! Your picks are outstanding overall...

[apurvaas]

Thanks lta

[k310]

Thanks LTA! You ROCK!

[SlickRick1382]

Bball on paper by Dean Oliver. Just bought ot on Amazon a week ago for about $15. Check again, I suggest buying it.

Just ordered it now. Turns out the high priced book I had seen was

<table><tbody><tr><td class="c1 txtleft" valign="top"> </td> <td class="c2 txtleft txtnormal" valign="top"> Fixed Odds Sports Betting: Statistical Forecasting and Risk Management - Joseph Buchdahl; Paperback


Only 4 left in stock--order soon.

Shipped from: any_book
Delete · Move to cart
</td> <td class="c3 txtright txtnormal" valign="top"> $169.20
</td></tr></tbody></table>

But after some more research I found it for $58 new.

[Love The Action]

sharp sports betting
weighing the odds
conquering risk
basketball on paper

Weighing the Odds, Sharp Sports Betting and Conquering Risk are for overall math and market knowledge needed to invest in sports.

Basketball on Paper, The Hidden Game of Football and Moneyball are about advanced stats in basketball, football and baseball respectively. I highly recommend them if you want to learn about what quantitative factors are most important in predicting future success in those particular sports.

[Love The Action]

Really want to go big on a game I am eyeing today, but I just don't think the number is worth it right now.

[burchfield]

Thanks for the good day LTA

[migz]

Really want to go big on a game I am eyeing today, but I just don't think the number is worth it right now.

What play?

[Elad]

You're doing a great job, keep winning

You remind me Sweetjhons55 (anyone know what happened to him)

Good luck today,your fans are waiting for you

[NYSportsGuy210]

Lakers-Pacers team total at 180 right now, I know Los Angeles has been struggling a bit offensively last three to four games, however both teams can play a fast pace and the OVER should be a consideration here today, no?

Also Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, Heat defense plays lock down and should collapse all over a sub par Bucks offense in Miami.

Liking the UNDER on Bucks Team Total Points at 93.

Thoughts LTA?

[LOL]

What play?

Probably LA over...

[Donnie Brasco]

You're doing a great job, keep winning

You remind me Sweetjhons55 (anyone know what happened to him)

Good luck today,your fans are waiting for you

Sj55 is a douche. Went tout and is getting killed right now in ncaa bb. Not sure about nba. Still a douche.

[burchfield]

I on the Lakers Over. Just hope LTA dont go against them. NY you do pretty good too

[Elad]

Probably LA over...

Probably LA under..

The line only gonna jump up so if LTA want to take the over he would have done it before..


Or mybe he want take over in NJN ..


G why we guess his bets much easier to wait

[Elad]

Sj55 is a douche. Went tout and is getting killed right now in ncaa bb. Not sure about nba. Still a douche.

wow now I saw his site,he takes money on barely 60% success,not nice,after last year he gets greedy.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/22/2012

Play #1

Pacers/Lakers under (181) 1.5x (Locked)

Natural market fluctuation will probably see this one go up and down a bit from this 181 range, however, that's the number I was waiting for so that's the number I will play. I am leaving for the day pretty soon and won't have time to watch the lines for a better number. I've already seen some people think this is a number that "should easily go over." However, I think the books are setting this number so low for a reason. This matchup in style of play was made for the under. With both teams coming off a day of rest, defense and half-court offense should be paramount. If you look at the advanced numbers, this shapes up perfectly for the under as both teams are in the bottom 1/3 of the league in OEFF and EFG%, but are in the top 6 of those same defensive categories with the Pacers and Lakers ranking 4th and 6th in OEFF and 3rd and 4th in EFG%. Plus, both teams are equally adept at shutting down the inside game ranking 5th and 6th in defending the paint. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of Offensive Three Point Rate, so I don't expect them to be knocking down a ton of shots from outside. While the Lakers struggle with the pick and roll, I am not enthralled with Indy's pick and roll game. With the Pacers ranked 19th in PACE with the Laker's 22nd ranking in that same category, I expect both teams to settle into a nice, slow pace that is predicted on the half-court game on both ends of the court. The refs are Mauer, Roe and Boland. Mauer is rather dependable under ref in the past, if not this season, and the other guys have a slight under lean throughout their career. I suppose the Lakers could break out of their scoring slump being at home and that is my one fear for this game. However, these teams' play great individual and team defense and I think the slow pace will be key. This game opened up at 178 at Pinny, which was the lowest opening total either team has seen all year according to my records. This is a classic game where the majority of bets see these two team names and think offense, instead of looking at the style of play they are currently employing. Based on the quantitative factors, I don't see anything that screams to the over in this matchup and both teams' recent offensive play has been lacking. Upon the 178 opening, Pinny took immediate under money driving the price to -118, before the Sunday morning crowd started hitting the over. The first wave saw the total go up to 180.5, before it took a big hit on the under driving it all the way back down to 179 and then all the way back up somewhat gradually. When Pinny first went to 180.5, one of my locals posted 181 and I jumped on it. Although I risk that we might see 181.5 or 182 later today or tonight, 181 was the number I pinpointed on this play and I won't be able to monitor the lines today. I will trust my instincts that we won't see it go up much more beyond that 181 point and think we see this one close at 179 or lower. I have this game set at 177 giving us over 3 points of value in this play at the current number. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

[Elad]

Yes Yes Yes...

I knew from the beginning that's what you gonna pick...

From the second I saw the line, straight I leaned on the under...

Good luck LTA! this one is big!

[Love The Action]

Lakers-Pacers team total at 180 right now, I know Los Angeles has been struggling a bit offensively last three to four games, however both teams can play a fast pace and the OVER should be a consideration here today, no?

Also Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat, Heat defense plays lock down and should collapse all over a sub par Bucks offense in Miami.

Liking the UNDER on Bucks Team Total Points at 93.

Thoughts LTA?

Indy ranks 19th in PACE and the Lakers rank 22nd. Both teams like to settle into a half-court game on both ends of the court, so as long as they don't both shoot in the 50% range this one should stay under the posted total. I would take this one as low as 179.5. Whenever you get a game involving the Lakers under 180, you need to look twice. Even though it's dead wrong, the "public" still sees a showtime Lakers team that used to score 100 a game a few years ago with Kobe and Gasol. Last season started the shift to a more half court game that is predicated on defense. As soon as Brown took over, he has made that defense even better. However, the Lakers currently lack the scoring threats outside of Kobe, Gasol and Bynum. If you put one or both of the big guys in foul trouble, then it becomes a Kobe iso type game plan. He might score 40, but the team will be under 90. Indy is not a running team, despite what you may think. Indy ranks 17th in fast-break points and 26th in fast-break efficiency (Lakers rank 26th and 16th respectively). Neither team is looking to run in general and especially not in this game where both teams "style" will be heavily dependent on the half-court game.

[Donnie Brasco]

wow now I saw his site,he takes money on barely 60% success,not nice,after last year he gets greedy.

Dont mind him taking money, an 60% is phenomenal. He just always bashed touts and next thing you know........also heard he was getting killed in ncaa then kinda left suscribers hanging to focus on nba.

[Love The Action]

Keep an eye on the Wizards/Celts under today with Rondo out. I wouldn't play it now at 181, because Washington is poor defensively, but I think a Wizards +8 and under 185 teaser would be a fun ACTION wager. Early Sunday games are always a good spot to check out the under first and the Celtics are not a good team right now. Losing Rondo hurts them more than any other player. Washington is playing well at home right now. I don't see the Wiz losing this one by more than 5 and I don't expect a fast pace either since Rondo is usually the guy pushing the pace for the Celts.

[SUPREME]

Am I the only one who thinks bobcats may be getting too many points against the nets? Both teams on a back to back and bobcats fairing well against decent teams even when losing. I'm considering a 5pt action teaser between wiz and cats. Any thoughts? Thanks in advance..

[absolutkaos]

tons of movement on the Raps/Lob City line...183 to 186 in the past 15 mins

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, what do you think are the most important key numbers in NBA Totals ? In sides I think it should be the 2 and the 7, am I right ?

[Kivo35]

Indy ranks 19th in PACE and the Lakers rank 22nd. Both teams like to settle into a half-court game on both ends of the court, so as long as they don't both shoot in the 50% range this one should stay under the posted total. I would take this one as low as 179.5. Whenever you get a game involving the Lakers under 180, you need to look twice. Even though it's dead wrong, the "public" still sees a showtime Lakers team that used to score 100 a game a few years ago with Kobe and Gasol. Last season started the shift to a more half court game that is predicated on defense. As soon as Brown took over, he has made that defense even better. However, the Lakers currently lack the scoring threats outside of Kobe, Gasol and Bynum. If you put one or both of the big guys in foul trouble, then it becomes a Kobe iso type game plan. He might score 40, but the team will be under 90. Indy is not a running team, despite what you may think. Indy ranks 17th in fast-break points and 26th in fast-break efficiency (Lakers rank 26th and 16th respectively). Neither team is looking to run in general and especially not in this game where both teams "style" will be heavily dependent on the half-court game.

In addition:

Lakers' shot clock usage breakdown:

0-10 sec %34
11-15 sec %26
16-20 sec %25
21+ %15

Pacers' :

0-10 sec %34
11-15 sec %28
16-20 sec %24
21+ %14

To give you a better idea, here is the #1 team's (Denver) shot clock usage breakdown:

0-10 sec %41
11-15 sec %26
16-20 sec %20
21+ %13

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/22/2012

Play #1
Pacers/Lakers under (181) 1.5x and under (181.5) 0.50x for total of 2x (Locked)

Natural market fluctuation will probably see this one go up and down a bit from this 181 range, however, that's the number I was waiting for so that's the number I will play. I am leaving for the day pretty soon and won't have time to watch the lines for a better number. I've already seen some people think this is a number that "should easily go over." However, I think the books are setting this number so low for a reason. This matchup in style of play was made for the under. With both teams coming off a day of rest, defense and half-court offense should be paramount. If you look at the advanced numbers, this shapes up perfectly for the under as both teams are in the bottom 1/3 of the league in OEFF and EFG%, but are in the top 6 of those same defensive categories with the Pacers and Lakers ranking 4th and 6th in OEFF and 3rd and 4th in EFG%. Plus, both teams are equally adept at shutting down the inside game ranking 5th and 6th in defending the paint. Both teams are in the bottom 10 of Offensive Three Point Rate, so I don't expect them to be knocking down a ton of shots from outside. While the Lakers struggle with the pick and roll, I am not enthralled with Indy's pick and roll game. With the Pacers ranked 19th in PACE with the Laker's 22nd ranking in that same category, I expect both teams to settle into a nice, slow pace that is predicted on the half-court game on both ends of the court. The refs are Mauer, Roe and Boland. Mauer is rather dependable under ref in the past, if not this season, and the other guys have a slight under lean throughout their career. I suppose the Lakers could break out of their scoring slump being at home and that is my one fear for this game. However, these teams' play great individual and team defense and I think the slow pace will be key. This game opened up at 178 at Pinny, which was the lowest opening total either team has seen all year according to my records. This is a classic game where the majority of bets see these two team names and think offense, instead of looking at the style of play they are currently employing. Based on the quantitative factors, I don't see anything that screams to the over in this matchup and both teams' recent offensive play has been lacking. Upon the 178 opening, Pinny took immediate under money driving the price to -118, before the Sunday morning crowd started hitting the over. The first wave saw the total go up to 180.5, before it took a big hit on the under driving it all the way back down to 179 and then all the way back up somewhat gradually. When Pinny first went to 180.5, one of my locals posted 181 and I jumped on it. Although I risk that we might see 181.5 or 182 later today or tonight, 181 was the number I pinpointed on this play and I won't be able to monitor the lines today. I will trust my instincts that we won't see it go up much more beyond that 181 point and think we see this one close at 179 or lower. I have this game set at 177 giving us over 3 points of value in this play at the current number. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1.5x. Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above.

Legends is hanging an off market number of 181.5, so I'm taking advantage. There are over 70% of all bets on the over but pinny seems a bit reluctant to go above 180. Hmmm....regardless, im rolling with the under for 2x. Im out for the day. Card is final. Good luck.

[r1kkie]

Added 0.50x to Play #1 for total of 2x. Correct units denoted above.

Legends is hanging an off market number of 181.5, so I'm taking advantage. There are over 70% of all bets on the over but pinny seems a bit reluctant to go above 180. Hmmm....regardless, im rolling with the under for 2x. Im out for the day. Card is final. Good luck.

Did you type wrong when you quoted? You say your on 2x on the under but above your on 1.5x on under at 181 and 0,5x on over on 181.5.

[Donnie Brasco]

Did you type wrong when you quoted? You say your on 2x on the under but above your on 1.5x on under at 181 and 0,5x on over on 181.5.

He on the under, never said over.

[YouHave2outs]

He on the under, never said over.

lol read ltas last post. the bolded part where it says 'and over (181.5) 0.50x'. but yeah im sure he meant under.

[GChild]

Let's get this!!!

[Love The Action]

lol read ltas last post. the bolded part where it says 'and over (181.5) 0.50x'. but yeah im sure he meant under.

Did you type wrong when you quoted? You say your on 2x on the under but above your on 1.5x on under at 181 and 0,5x on over on 181.5.

Fixed lol...

I'm rolling under....1.5x under (181) & 0.50x under (181.5).

Good luck gentlemen!

[Love The Action]

In addition:

Lakers' shot clock usage breakdown:

0-10 sec %34
11-15 sec %26
16-20 sec %25
21+ %15

Pacers' :

0-10 sec %34
11-15 sec %28
16-20 sec %24
21+ %14

To give you a better idea, here is the #1 team's (Denver) shot clock usage breakdown:

0-10 sec %41
11-15 sec %26
16-20 sec %20
21+ %13

100% correct. Drain that clock