LTA's NBA Plays

[NotJoshRay]

Just a gut feeling here that he won't play. Heats rolling without him for one and two, that sprain looked awful. No reason to not give him extra rest for it. He's got alot of other injury issues going on too which makes me think they're going to buy as much time as possible.

But even so, if Wade plays I expect them to have alot of energy and have a huge scoring game themselves.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/21/2012

Play #1

Spurs/Rockets over (192) 1x (Locked)

This is purely a value bet as these two offensively efficient teams should not be set at 192. I have this game set at 198.5 and I just can't pass this up, despite the fatigue spot for the old Spurs. I don't have time for a full writeup now as the lines are moving, so I will give you my full thoughts on this one later. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[joco]

liking heat/76ers over 193.5...both teams can put up alot of points on the board. any thoughts on the total lta?

[Love The Action]

Just a gut feeling here that he won't play. Heats rolling without him for one and two, that sprain looked awful. No reason to not give him extra rest for it. He's got alot of other injury issues going on too which makes me think they're going to buy as much time as possible.

But even so, if Wade plays I expect them to have alot of energy and have a huge scoring game themselves.

The question is where the line settles. I missed out on 193 and I would like to see that number again....

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/21/2012

Play #1

Spurs/Rockets over (192) 1x (Locked)

This is purely a value bet as these two offensively efficient teams should not be set at 192. I have this game set at 198.5 and I just can't pass this up, despite the fatigue spot for the old Spurs. I don't have time for a full writeup now as the lines are moving, so I will give you my full thoughts on this one later. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Sixers/Heat over (193) 1x (Locked)

This play is all about PACE. Both teams are top 10 in PACE and I expect a game that is all about running. Just like in Play #1, there are fatigue concerns with Philly playing in a pretty bad fatigue spot, but I'm hoping they have enough in those legs to hit their shots at a 45% clip. As long as we see both teams shoot 45%, this one should end in the high 90's. This game opened at 195, which is a full 5-6 points more than the total for this matchup in last season's playoffs -- and that's with Wade being questionable. I find that interesting. I don't have time for a full writeup as I'm watching the lines, but I will try to circle back later. I have this game set at 196 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Knicks in a classic NBA spot for a win....I just don't if I can make an investment in such a heartless team.

[CheeseHead]

Knicks in a classic NBA spot for a win....I just don't if I can make an investment in such a heartless team.

I was thinking the same thing...not sure if I can pull the trigger or not. Then I would just feel like an idiot if the Nuggets won the game like they "should".

[Love The Action]

+7 are a lot of points for Twolves, who are the new "hot" team that the public is starting to love (Love?).

Not a good spot for them tonight though. Interesting matchup.....

[Love The Action]

I was thinking the same thing...not sure if I can pull the trigger or not. Then I would just feel like an idiot if the Nuggets won the game like they "should".

I would also say Detroit is in a similar spot tonight against a tired Portland team. I am so angry for not backing the Grizzlies last night last night against the Pistons, but I generally do not bet two points off the open on a side. Long term -ev.....

[CheeseHead]

+7 are a lot of points for Twolves, who are the new "hot" team that the public is starting to love (Love?). Not a good spot for them tonight though. Interesting matchup.....

I kind of like Twolves +7 but you're right about it not being the best of spots to put money on them. They really cost me last night since I put in a live bet on the Clippers to win

What do you think of the Mavs tonight? New Orleans sort of has to be demoralized at this point don't they? Mavs seem to play pretty well on the road..

[Love The Action]

Mornin' LTA, looking forward to today's plays. I encountered the book "Conquering Risk" that you have recommended online so thought I'd pass the link on to your thread followers.....I started reading it last night, great stuff.
It is not complete, as it is a preview, but it is pretty comprehensive and offers some great insight.

http://books.google.com.do/books?id=qzf619W_LUsC&pg=PA29&lpg=PA29&dq=chasing+steam+betting&source=bl&ots=EIdeGZxCa-&sig=yXniADyy7jMnsFeJoKqnd3gY5HE&hl=es-419&sa=X&ei=LbMaT8G6NYfyggfulajuCw&ved=0CBwQ6AEwADgK#v=onepage&q=chasing%20steam%20betting&f=false

Great book....I highly recommend it

You can get it off Amazon for like $20 or less, including delivery....

[migz]

LTA, what do you think of DAL/NO ou 175?

[svenodds]

Great book....I highly recommend it You can get it off Amazon for like $20 or less, including delivery....

253 points in the SBR store

[Donkeys2012]

ESPN bottomline just showed WADE as out.

[chief42]

[Love The Action]

ESPN bottomline just showed WADE as out.

Thanks....I'm assuming he is out. However, he remains officially listed as questionable.

I prefer he not play. His defense will only make it harder on Holliday and the rest of Philly's back court and with the bad ankle, the Heat could be less inclined to run. On the other hand, he can hit some shots and would probably not play more than 20 minutes. I like the over whether he plays or not, but I don't think he will play tonight and that is my preference.

[Love The Action]

What do you think of the Mavs tonight? New Orleans sort of has to be demoralized at this point don't they? Mavs seem to play pretty well on the road..

I think that line is unplayable at -6, but a number like Mavs -4 might be more palatable. The Hornets are more prideful than you give them credit hard. I have not seen them give up. Check their losses, they rarely get blown out. Most of their games are competitive. GL

[Love The Action]

LTA, what do you think of DAL/NO ou 175?

I don't see an edge at that number. I believe the books are right on the money in that 174-176 range. GL

[Love The Action]

[TheBigOne]

Any thoughts on Cleveland/Atlanta Under? The last 5 between these two has gone under and they're both on b2b's.

[Love The Action]

ESPN bottomline just showed WADE as out.

Yep....confirmed.

[Love The Action]

Any thoughts on Cleveland/Atlanta Under? The last 5 between these two has gone under and they're both on b2b's.

Follow your gut....haven't gotten to that game yet. GL

[Dmil]

Knicks in a classic NBA spot for a win....I just don't if I can make an investment in such a heartless team.

Come on LTA, it will be the same as last night. The Knicks are horrible and Amar'e looks shot. The ex Knicks on Denver want this game bad.

[wguan2]

lta what is this classic nba spot that knicks are in? i'm really intrigued by this game

[LeagueCapper]

lta what is this classic nba spot that knicks are in? i'm really intrigued by this game

Knicks are horrible as favorites but always get up for a game when there the underdog. Denver struggles against NY always as well. Denver came back from a 10+ point deficit last night to win the game exuberating a lot of energy.

NEW YORK is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK: 28-16 ATS as underdog

[LOL]

No way that NYK are gonna win this. Cmon they have been playing the worst basketball ever... even Washington is goign to win by 20 against them... lol

[SlickRick1382]

Great book....I highly recommend it You can get it off Amazon for like $20 or less, including delivery....

They are super cheap on Amazon.

I just got Sharp Sports Betting, Weighing the Odds and Conquering Risk from Amazon for $57.37 including tax and free delivery.

[aussieH]

Spurs v rockets game is at 191.5


Lta if you have the game at 198, would you not consider that to be a 2 unit play

[wguan2]

Knicks are horrible as favorites but always get up for a game when there the underdog. Denver struggles against NY always as well. Denver came back from a 10+ point deficit last night to win the game exuberating a lot of energy. NEW YORK is 4-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons NEW YORK: 28-16 ATS as underdog

the last two stats you had, i'm not really too sure they matter that much. i really don't think the nuggets wasted a lot of energy last night at all. if anything, last night was a look ahead game. the nuggets are an incredibly deep team so none of the players play that many minutes to begin with. i think ty was the most at 38, danilo at 35. they won last night because of al harrington. the other players actually didn't play all that well. without harrington, i think they lose that game and we'd all be talking about how that was a look ahead game for the players who got traded for melo. i think they get up for this game and melo does as well. melo will probably score 35+ but i think the edge goes to denver's bench versus ny's bench

[Love The Action]

Spurs v rockets game is at 191.5


Lta if you have the game at 198, would you not consider that to be a 2 unit play

No. The 198.5 is purely a quantitative calculation based on the stats. In this case, there are some fatigue factors that could hurt this play which are difficult to quantify. Just like yesterday's Spurs over, I expect there to be 95-100 points at halftime. The question is whether they can keep that up in the 2h. Yesterday, the Kings let up on the pace and both teams went cold as ice. In this case, Houston has more reliable scoring options both inside and out, so I think they have a better chance of keeping SA's offensive interest requiring that they keep the big guns playing.

In the NBA, you can't just look base your play on statistical analysis alone. That is the first part, but you have to weight other "motivations" as well. I would not play this over for more than 1x.

[aussieH]

Thanks for the response.

[Love The Action]

No way that NYK are gonna win this. Cmon they have been playing the worst basketball ever... even Washington is goign to win by 20 against them... lol

Come on LTA, it will be the same as last night. The Knicks are horrible and Amar'e looks shot. The ex Knicks on Denver want this game bad.

the last two stats you had, i'm not really too sure they matter that much. i really don't think the nuggets wasted a lot of energy last night at all. if anything, last night was a look ahead game. the nuggets are an incredibly deep team so none of the players play that many minutes to begin with. i think ty was the most at 38, danilo at 35. they won last night because of al harrington. the other players actually didn't play all that well. without harrington, i think they lose that game and we'd all be talking about how that was a look ahead game for the players who got traded for melo. i think they get up for this game and melo does as well. melo will probably score 35+ but i think the edge goes to denver's bench versus ny's bench

I never said the Knicks were the better team. In fact, I stated quite the opposite. Nevertheless, "the better team" does not always win in the NBA. We see upsets like this every night of the week, so you should never assume any NBA team can't lose, especially in a fatigue spot like this.

For those that like to read lines -- which I think people put WAY too much emphasis on -- this sets up as a classic "trap" game for Denver. The books opened this game a PK, when they could have opened this at -2 and probably received the same amount of Denver money. The books are really "enticing" you into putting your money on Denver here, because they know this is not a good spot for them. You have Denver playing a b2b and 4th game in 5 nights, which is an extreme fatigue spot that they have failed in all year. Out of Denver's 5 losses this season, 4 of them have come in fatigue spots of either b2b or 3 in 4 nights. Consequently, despite all their depth, they have not played as well as some might think in these fatigue spots.

Both teams will be motivated with a lot of bad blood on both sides. However, Denver is on the road in this horrible fatigue spot and NY is almost in a must-win situation. These are classic upset spots in the NBA that happen every night of the week, so if you don't think the Knicks can with this game outright you have not watched enough basketball.

With all of that said, I have made no decision on whether to make a play in this game. The Knicks are wholly unreliable. I will probably watch where the money comes in and go from there. Nevertheless, I would not put the house on Denver tonight.

[pokerwhiz90]

littlerock epic melt down - what is this, first st. johns, almost uncw and now lr

[pokerwhiz90]

oops wrong thread

[Love The Action]

oops wrong thread

I assume your NCAAB play is not going well.... here's a little luck for ya .