LTA's NBA Plays

[nbafanatic2012]

Hey Lta any thoughts on gsw and pacer totals.....I was really leaning towards the over....line moved from 189 to 193

[Love The Action]

on it, any more plays?

We shall see

[yoman456]

Do you really think they stand a chance against the Knicks right now? Just because a team needs to win to "save" its season doesn't mean it's gonna go bonkers on you lol

[Love The Action]

Hey Lta any thoughts on gsw and pacer totals.....I was really leaning towards the over....line moved from 189 to 193

To the extent there was any value, that has been eroded by the four point move. I would generally recommend against betting into numbers after the steam has hit, especially with two offensively inconsistent and at times awful teams. GL

[apurvaas]

just got in time! TY

[Love The Action]

Do you really think they stand a chance against the Knicks right now? Just because a team needs to win to "save" its season doesn't mean it's gonna go bonkers on you lol

Was that the only reason I provided? No.

Reading is a skill.

The Knicks are not markedly better than the Bucks when you look at the numbers. The Bucks actually have better or similar offensive numbers in OEFF, eFG%, TOV%, TS% and FT/FGA, and even though the Knicks have played better defense up till now, I am not ready to crown them a better defensive team.

What makes you think the Knicks are a great team? The Knicks are playing very poorly. Personally, I am counting on this being a close game either way. I'm not saying the Bucks win, but I do not expect them to lose by more than 4 points.

[CHAZ]

"Stephen Jackson has been suspended by Scott Skiles one game for missing the bus to shootaround and will not play on Friday."

Incase, you didn't see already. Hopefully maybe the line will make it back up to +6

[pokerwhiz90]

if the bucks won straight up, nobody would be surprised - eastern central division is very strong this year

[yoman456]

Why was my post deleted?

[Love The Action]

"Stephen Jackson has been suspended by Scott Skiles one game for missing the bus to shootaround and will not play on Friday."

Incase, you didn't see already. Hopefully maybe the line will make it back up to +6

I didn't see that. Thank you. Perhaps that will actually be better for the Bucks if Jackson is becoming a negative distraction. Many times, you will see a team play harder to show the negative influence that they can win without him. I think this will provide for a better offensive flow centered around the inside game of Bogut and the outside game of Jennings.

Thanks for letting me know about this change though Chaz, when was that announced?

[yoman456]

truth be told. +6 could be a great pick. I'm just saying it could be risky, bc every once in a while Melo and the Knicks actually make shots and then it's over

[CHAZ]

Stephen Jackson has been suspended by Scott Skiles one game for missing the bus to shootaround and will not play on Friday.
Skiles and Jackson had downplayed their controversy on Thursday, but Jackson won't play on Friday. The frustrating season for Jackson and his owners continues, as he's averaging just 13.7 points, 3.6 rebounds and 1.5 steals on a career-low 36.8 percent shooting. Shaun Livingston will draw the start at shooting guard in his place. Jan 20 - 11:23 AM

Source: CF Gardner on Twitter
http://www.rotoworld.com/player/nba/503/stephen-jackson


Whats funny is the line went to 5 now after it was announced

[dlunc3]

Edit

[Love The Action]

truth be told. +6 could be a great pick. I'm just saying it could be risky, bc every once in a while Melo and the Knicks actually make shots and then it's over

Fair enough. However, I am betting this on value. The teams are very similar on paper according to the advanced stats and I think the motivational angles should also see the Bucks play hard.

Last season in March of 2010, the Knicks were favored by 7 points in NY and the Bucks won. Now, despite how bad the Bucks have played, especially on the road, they opened up 1 point less and have been bet down to the +5 range. That tells me that both the books and value bettors see something in the Bucks tonight.

Every wager is fraught with risk, all we can do is try to make those plays which give us the biggest edge possible. If something happens and the line moves past +6, I may buy out. However, if this one closes at Bucks +5.5 or less, I think the Bucks are the right play.

GL on whatever you choose.

[yoman456]

I like the way you analyze picks! We all have our own opinions and that's how betting sites work...we're not gonna win all the time. You win some, you lose some! Very good chance that I would lose by putting money on the knicks so I'm staying away from it

good luck dude

[pacocn]

Lta, let it be noted that Mike Dunleavy will also play for
the bucks tonight, evidently without going into great detail
his testicles have been reattached.

[Bbobbi]

nice move just dropped to +5 at 5dimes

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/20/2012

Play #1

Bucks (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Because the Bucks are struggling on the road, I do not want to get "hooked" and will pay the -120. While it is not a profitable long term strategy to pay -120 on a daily basis, if you pick your spots it can definitely be +ev. I have paid -120 about 5 times so far this season winning 3 of those games, losing one and pushing on the other. Therefore, that push itself has saved me 1x on the season and I am not adverse to paying -120 under the right circumstances moving forward. In this game, we have two teams that are remarkably similar both quantitatively and qualitatively and I believe the books are overvaluing the Knicks in this particular matchup. If you look at OEFF, eFG%, TOV%, TS% and FT/FGA, you will see the Bucks actually have the advantage or these teams are ranked within mere percentage points of each other. While the Knicks do have the advantage defensively in most of those same advanced defensive categories (and how crazy is that?!?), that advantage is not to such an extent that the Bucks should be giving anything more than 4 points in this game. Both teams are rested, but the Bucks are coming in off 2 days of rest, while the Knicks only had one day and Carmelo Anthony was unable to practice because of familial reasons. That could be a distraction, but even if it's not, I think the two days will have helped the Bucks much more than the one day helped the Knicks. Make no mistake, the Bucks are struggling and have yet to win a road game. In addition, there could be a feud between Skiles and Jackson because of Skiles' benching of Jackson for the 2h in their last loss. However, both parties say that they have resolved the matter and it is no longer an issue. I think this could actually be good for the Bucks and provide some extra motivation for Jackson. Plus, I like Skiles as a coach much more than D'Antoni and I think Skiles will have used these last two days to fire up his troops for a NY assault mission, especially on defense where they have struggled. With the Knicks playing horrible offense, much of which can be attributed to Anthony's holding the ball and one-on-one style, I think this presents the perfect game for the Bucks to get back to that hard-nosed defense they have been playing for years under Skiles. This is especially true if you consider Anthony's missed practice -- that will not help the efficiency of the Knicks offense. Both teams are desperate for a win and I expect the Bucks to come out highly motivated. This game opened up at +6 or +6.5 depending where you look, but took immediate Bucks money driving down the price to the +5 to +5.5 range despite 70% of all wagers coming in on the Knicks. That is promising line movement in favor of Milwaukee and I agree in this case. I have this game set at +4, giving us a full FG of variance between my number and the current number if you factor in the half-point purchase. If you don't want to pay the -120, I would personally still play Milwaukee at +5 or better as I expect a highly motivated Bucks team tonight against a Knicks team that is not much better. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bucks for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/Spurs over (196.5) 1x (Locked)

As soon as Pinny moved to -110 at 197, my local that follows Pinny/5D lines dropped to 196.5. Once I saw this game under the key number of 197, I had to jump on it. The Spurs play lights-out offensively when at home and neither team is playing at a high defensive level. In addition, with the Spurs playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, I think their defense will be especially lagging. When fatigued, it's natural for a basketball player to exert what little energy they have on the offensive side of the ball because that comes naturally as opposed to defense which is all about effort. The Spurs are ranked 4th in OEFF and eFG%, while ranked 6th in TS%. Even though the Kings' offense is nowhere near as efficient, they play at the 7th fasted PACE and excel at drawing fouls with a FT/FGA ranking of 7th and offensive rebounds with a ORB% of .308 ranking 2nd in the league. Because Sacramento is rested, I expect them to push the pace against this tired SA team and force them to adjust. Both defense are struggling ranking in the bottom 11 of DEFF, OeFG% and OTS%. After two games playing against much better defenses in Miami and Orlando, I think we see the Spurs light it up tonight against the Kings who really don't like to put too much effort into the defensive end. The refs are Malloy, Adams and Forte. All three favor the over slightly with a per game crew average of at least 40 fouls, or are relatively neutral. If you look at the line movement around 11:58 AM at Pinny, you will see a very brief dip down to 196 and then almost immediately back up as though someone dropped some money on under to get it under the key number of 197 and then jumped back over the top on the over driving it back up to that key number. I have this game set at 200 and we're getting over 3 points of "value" here. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[pokerwhiz90]

got it - we're on an upswing!

[Love The Action]

got it - we're on an upswing!

Slowly but surely

[true blue 26]

would you bet the over if it was at 197.5 or rather wait a little and see whats going to happen?

[CHAZ]

Play #2

Kings/Spurs over (196.5) 1x (Locked)

As soon as Pinny moved to -110 at 197, my local that follows Pinny/5D lines dropped to 196.5. Once I saw this game under the key number of 197, I had to jump on it. The Spurs play lights-out offensively when at home and neither team is playing at a high defensive level. In addition, with the Spurs playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, I think their defense will be especially lagging. When fatigued, it's natural for a basketball player to exert what little energy they have on the offensive side of the ball because that comes naturally as opposed to defense which is all about effort. The Spurs are ranked 4th in OEFF and eFG%, while ranked 6th in TS%. Even though the Kings' offense is nowhere near as efficient, they play at the 7th fasted PACE and excel at drawing fouls with a FT/FGA ranking of 7th and offensive rebounds with a ORB% of .308 ranking 2nd in the league. Because Sacramento is rested, I expect them to push the pace against this tired SA team and force them to adjust. Both defense are struggling ranking in the bottom 11 of DEFF, OeFG% and OTS%. After two games playing against much better defenses in Miami and Orlando, I think we see the Spurs light it up tonight against the Kings who really don't like to put too much effort into the defensive end. The refs are Malloy, Adams and Forte. All three favor the over slightly with a per game crew average of at least 40 fouls, or are relatively neutral. If you look at the line movement around 11:58 AM at Pinny, you will see a very brief dip down to 196 and then almost immediately back up as though someone dropped some money on under to get it under the key number of 197 and then jumped back over the top on the over driving it back up to that key number. I have this game set at 200 and we're getting over 3 points of "value" here. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Damn LTA, I was really liking the UNDER.

Goodluck to you tonight

[Trivial]

Line dor Spurs is down to 196. Good time to get the over in.

[YouHave2outs]

Line dor Spurs is down to 196. Good time to get the over in.

u196 is juiced at -113 on pinny, could drop even more.

[kl06ty]

Sacramento really blows on the road...really iffy on the 2nd play...probably a no play for me...BOL

[Calvani]

Spurs/Kings line moving down

Down to 195.5(-105) on 5d

[PREMOSIX]

i like under sac/sa

[Love The Action]

i like under sac/sa

Damn LTA, I was really liking the UNDER.

Goodluck to you tonight

Then you guys should play the under. I'm rolling with the over. Good luck to you as well.

[Love The Action]

Down to 195.5(-105) on 5d

Yep. I should have waited. With that said, however, I'm hanging with my baby son today and haven't been able to keep the eye on the lines -- only during nap time LOL. My goal was getting this play under the key number of 197 and I accomplished that. Let's see what happens with the closer. Either way, I am rolling with the over.

[apurvaas]

Yep. I should have waited. With that said, however, I'm hanging with my baby son today and haven't been able to keep the eye on the lines -- only during nap time LOL. My goal was getting this play under the key number of 197 and I accomplished that. Let's see what happens with the closer. Either way, I am rolling with the over.

like the over

also parlayed both of your lines, if you win both, i will win 2x plus parlay :P

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/20/2012

Play #1

Bucks (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Because the Bucks are struggling on the road, I do not want to get "hooked" and will pay the -120. While it is not a profitable long term strategy to pay -120 on a daily basis, if you pick your spots it can definitely be +ev. I have paid -120 about 5 times so far this season winning 3 of those games, losing one and pushing on the other. Therefore, that push itself has saved me 1x on the season and I am not adverse to paying -120 under the right circumstances moving forward. In this game, we have two teams that are remarkably similar both quantitatively and qualitatively and I believe the books are overvaluing the Knicks in this particular matchup. If you look at OEFF, eFG%, TOV%, TS% and FT/FGA, you will see the Bucks actually have the advantage or these teams are ranked within mere percentage points of each other. While the Knicks do have the advantage defensively in most of those same advanced defensive categories (and how crazy is that?!?), that advantage is not to such an extent that the Bucks should be giving anything more than 4 points in this game. Both teams are rested, but the Bucks are coming in off 2 days of rest, while the Knicks only had one day and Carmelo Anthony was unable to practice because of familial reasons. That could be a distraction, but even if it's not, I think the two days will have helped the Bucks much more than the one day helped the Knicks. Make no mistake, the Bucks are struggling and have yet to win a road game. In addition, there could be a feud between Skiles and Jackson because of Skiles' benching of Jackson for the 2h in their last loss. However, both parties say that they have resolved the matter and it is no longer an issue. I think this could actually be good for the Bucks and provide some extra motivation for Jackson. Plus, I like Skiles as a coach much more than D'Antoni and I think Skiles will have used these last two days to fire up his troops for a NY assault mission, especially on defense where they have struggled. With the Knicks playing horrible offense, much of which can be attributed to Anthony's holding the ball and one-on-one style, I think this presents the perfect game for the Bucks to get back to that hard-nosed defense they have been playing for years under Skiles. This is especially true if you consider Anthony's missed practice -- that will not help the efficiency of the Knicks offense. Both teams are desperate for a win and I expect the Bucks to come out highly motivated. This game opened up at +6 or +6.5 depending where you look, but took immediate Bucks money driving down the price to the +5 to +5.5 range despite 70% of all wagers coming in on the Knicks. That is promising line movement in favor of Milwaukee and I agree in this case. I have this game set at +4, giving us a full FG of variance between my number and the current number if you factor in the half-point purchase. If you don't want to pay the -120, I would personally still play Milwaukee at +5 or better as I expect a highly motivated Bucks team tonight against a Knicks team that is not much better. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bucks for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/Spurs over (196.5) 1x (Locked)

As soon as Pinny moved to -110 at 197, my local that follows Pinny/5D lines dropped to 196.5. Once I saw this game under the key number of 197, I had to jump on it. The Spurs play lights-out offensively when at home and neither team is playing at a high defensive level. In addition, with the Spurs playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, I think their defense will be especially lagging. When fatigued, it's natural for a basketball player to exert what little energy they have on the offensive side of the ball because that comes naturally as opposed to defense which is all about effort. The Spurs are ranked 4th in OEFF and eFG%, while ranked 6th in TS%. Even though the Kings' offense is nowhere near as efficient, they play at the 7th fasted PACE and excel at drawing fouls with a FT/FGA ranking of 7th and offensive rebounds with a ORB% of .308 ranking 2nd in the league. Because Sacramento is rested, I expect them to push the pace against this tired SA team and force them to adjust. Both defense are struggling ranking in the bottom 11 of DEFF, OeFG% and OTS%. After two games playing against much better defenses in Miami and Orlando, I think we see the Spurs light it up tonight against the Kings who really don't like to put too much effort into the defensive end. The refs are Malloy, Adams and Forte. All three favor the over slightly with a per game crew average of at least 40 fouls, or are relatively neutral. If you look at the line movement around 11:58 AM at Pinny, you will see a very brief dip down to 196 and then almost immediately back up as though someone dropped some money on under to get it under the key number of 197 and then jumped back over the top on the over driving it back up to that key number. I have this game set at 200 and we're getting over 3 points of "value" here. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bulls/Cavaliers under (186.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm jumping on this number now before Rose is confirmed out, which I am pretty sure will happen. Even if he plays, I like the under here. The majority of all bets on the over in this game, but I just don't see it regardless of the Rose injury. If Rose plays, he won't be 100%. Personally, I don't think Paxson, Forman and Thibs will risk him for a nondescript road game in Cleveland. This is especially true after how well Watson and the "bench mob" played against Phoenix. In this game, I don't see them shooting 54% overall or 50% from beyond the arc. Although Cleveland is not the best defensive team, they are improving and Byron Scott is the type of coach that emphasizes defense. Currently, they are a middle of the road defensive team but show promises. They work hard and crash the boards as evidenced by a ORB% and DRB% both ranked 6th in the league. That tells me these guys are motivated and are playing hard. They will need a top effort tonight against an even better rebounding team in the Bulls ranked 1st in ORB% and 5th in DRB%. The Bulls are one of the best defensive teams in the league and with 2 days off, I expect their top defensive effort tonight. This is especially true as Thibs has had 2 days to game-plan for Irving, who he gave great praise to when he said he is a "phenomenal" player. Thibs has only said that about Rose in the past and I know he has a high opinion of Irving. Consequently, I am very confident that he has a devised a defensive scheme to stop a rather potent Cavs offense. I have been backing the Cavs with success on both the over and side this season and this will be the first time I play a Cavs under. However, I think this is a great spot as both teams will be hyped and I just don't see the Bulls fringe players shooting out of this world two games in a row. I am a bit concerned about the pace of the game because the Cavs like to run and the Bulls will run when Watson is at the point. However, I think we see the game slow down considerably in the 2h and especially in the 4th quarter. The refs are not the best with Stafford, Blair and Palmer, but I don't think it matters tonight. Both defenses are top 6 in the league in OFT/FGA, so they don't give up a lot of fouls. I have this game set at 184 with Rose, so whatever adjustment you would make for his absence will provide for more value on the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[wguan2]

LTA what are your thoughts on the line movement in SA/Sac o/u?

edit: sorry didnt see you original post. i had a really good feeling about this over but the line movements scaring me off. i'm considering hedging

[Love The Action]

Spurs over certainly looks dead in the water from a line movement perspective...steadily declining. I thought the Spurs had a day off tomorrow, but they are playing Houston on the 21st instead of the 22nd like that I thought. I think the market expects Popovich to rest Parker, Duncan and co. as much possible tonight.

While that does damper my optimism ever so slightly, I like the depth of the Spurs bench and think guys like Blair, Neal, Splitter, Bonner, Green, Leonard and Anderson can score some points against lowly Sacramento. Likewise, I think Sactown can score on the Spurs reserves. Additionally, one positive about resting some of the older guys -- if that's what Pop wants to do, we don't know for sure -- is that playing reserves usually means that you get 100% effort because these types of guys need to prove themselves. You generally late scores when the game is over where starters might run out the clock because the reserves want to pad their stats.

This game is going to be about pace. If Sacramento can force a fast pace in this game, the Spurs will forget about defense and just start firing away from outside and then hit it down low with Blair and Splitter. If they can hit at a decent percentage from outside and Sacramento can push the pace, this game should go over.

We shall see. Definitely not a great play long term when you are losing 1 point to the current number, but I've lost plays this season where I beat the closer by 5 points so who knows. Maybe we'll catch a bit of luck....

[Love The Action]

LTA what are your thoughts on the line movement in SA/Sac o/u?

edit: sorry didnt see you original post. i had a really good feeling about this over but the line movements scaring me off. i'm considering hedging

See my post above. I am still confident in the over despite the line movement. It's at 195.5, so only 1 point less. If it keeps dropping to the 194.5 range, then I would worry.

I think it's due to the possibility that Pop takes it easy on the starter's minutes tonight. However, as I mentioned above, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

I'm sticking with the over NO MATTER WHAT. I never hedge where there is a possibility of a polish middle.

If I can lose games where I beat the closer by 5 points, I can win games that I lose to the closer by 1 point.

[wguan2]

Thanks for the response. BOL tonight