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the start and pace to this 4th is awful... 21points in 3 minutesComment -
dont worry it will even itself out dlunc3Comment -
heat finally playing smart and slowing it up with the leadComment -
Whoa...that was close at the end there.Comment -
edit: wooooo, great call LTA! That was extremely scary at the end, very nice cash!!!
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Boooooom
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way to go LTA!
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anything for the late game?Comment -
Respect to Lebron, He told Chalmers to not shoot it and take the shot clock violation. That scum bag Gasol then hits a shot with a second on the clock. Hate that shit but at least he missed.Comment -
congrats sir LTA
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nic work LTAComment -
Pass. I was planning on taking Utah in this Mavs fade spot. However, with Dallas losing yesterday, they have all the motivation in the world. I'm sure Dirk is feeling better and the Mavs will fight hard in this one even with the altitude. On the other hand, it is a tough spot for Dallas here and Utah has been playing great team basketball on both ends. Corbin isn't the best, but he's learning and getting better. If I had to play it, I would roll with Utah and buy the hook at -2.5. Best I can get now is -3, so I am going to pass. Good luck on whatever you choose.Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/19/2012 Recap
1 - 0 = +1x
NBA 2011-2012 Season
41 - 32 = +9.15x
Big card for Friday....time to get to work. Maybe we can find some value to lock in tonight.
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Keep the streak going.Comment -
good job LTA.. I wish I saw your post but I missed it when the game went under too fast...so i went for the lowest possible score and bought the O175.5 in live betting, congrats...you are on a rollComment -
over 93 2nd half....wish me luck
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You have to ask yourself when the line gets posts "who's interested in this line?". How about the Under and Jazz backers. The lines adjust accordingly. I think the 2nd half stays Under because the backers will be afraid of taking the over and get caught in the middle. Same concept to take the Mavericks in the 2nd too. However, good luck either way. I'm on a Mavericks +4.5 and the Under 93.5 parlay cover bet since I'm big on the Jazz ML. Good Luck!Comment -
OT save meComment -
LTA. I envy your discipline in laying off the game tonight because of .5 pts. I wish I had that disciplineComment -
Yeah, I lost 7 units with the juice on that last shot. I had Jazz ML (2U) +150 Live Betting. I was proud I waited to bet this one till midway through the first. I also put U 184.5 (1U), which I thought had no chance going into the 2nd. I put a cover bet parlay (3U to win 5U) 2nd half U Mavericks +4.5. I lost big on this one...
Still find it amazing how close Vegas can get to the line...hmm. I usually win most of these combinations, but variance set in on this one. I was getting 3 to 1 (-200 or +400) with 5 seconds left in the game. Oh well...still up big for the year.
Last edited by doogtonmai; 01-20-12, 01:28 AM.Comment -
That was almost my 6th loss on an over in the last week in which i needed 80 points or less in the 2nd half and lost. I would have blown a gasket if this game hadnt gone over.Comment -
If you don't know what you're doing, I agree. I saved two units not betting the Jazz ML in the beginning of the game giving me leverage to make these types of risks. I only lost a couple of units more than if I bet it st8. I cannot even remember the last time I got middled like this. I'll take those odds any day.
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Only thing I never understood was how the Mavericks were always wide open under the rim...and how they rather cover Kidd than Terry...I mean Kidd! Id let the guy shoot all day and take my chancesComment -
Another day another dollar, solid work my man.
Lost my prop bet last night, such is life.
I have a question for ya.....From your experience which sports have the sharpest money wagered on them? It stands to reason that some sports, and some teams, have more public support, hence when the line moves on the Cowboys it has a good deal of public money involved. I am curious in particular about College Basketball, would you consider it to have a high % of sharp money as John Q. has NBA/NHL/NFL to bet on as well as other factors. I have been tracking College hoops this season and it has been remarkable thus far the winning % as it relates to the direction that the line moved. Thanks man, always appreciate your insight.
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NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/20/2012
Play #1
Bucks (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)
Because the Bucks are struggling on the road, I do not want to get "hooked" and will pay the -120. While it is not a profitable long term strategy to pay -120 on a daily basis, if you pick your spots it can definitely be +ev. I have paid -120 about 5 times so far this season winning 3 of those games, losing one and pushing on the other. Therefore, that push itself has saved me 1x on the season and I am not adverse to paying -120 under the right circumstances moving forward. In this game, we have two teams that are remarkably similar both quantitatively and qualitatively and I believe the books are overvaluing the Knicks in this particular matchup. If you look at OEFF, eFG%, TOV%, TS% and FT/FGA, you will see the Bucks actually have the advantage or these teams are ranked within mere percentage points of each other. While the Knicks do have the advantage defensively in most of those same advanced defensive categories (and how crazy is that?!?), that advantage is not to such an extent that the Bucks should be giving anything more than 4 points in this game. Both teams are rested, but the Bucks are coming in off 2 days of rest, while the Knicks only had one day and Carmelo Anthony was unable to practice because of familial reasons. That could be a distraction, but even if it's not, I think the two days will have helped the Bucks much more than the one day helped the Knicks. Make no mistake, the Bucks are struggling and have yet to win a road game. In addition, there could be a feud between Skiles and Jackson because of Skiles' benching of Jackson for the 2h in their last loss. However, both parties say that they have resolved the matter and it is no longer an issue. I think this could actually be good for the Bucks and provide some extra motivation for Jackson. Plus, I like Skiles as a coach much more than D'Antoni and I think Skiles will have used these last two days to fire up his troops for a NY assault mission, especially on defense where they have struggled. With the Knicks playing horrible offense, much of which can be attributed to Anthony's holding the ball and one-on-one style, I think this presents the perfect game for the Bucks to get back to that hard-nosed defense they have been playing for years under Skiles. This is especially true if you consider Anthony's missed practice -- that will not help the efficiency of the Knicks offense. Both teams are desperate for a win and I expect the Bucks to come out highly motivated. This game opened up at +6 or +6.5 depending where you look, but took immediate Bucks money driving down the price to the +5 to +5.5 range despite 70% of all wagers coming in on the Knicks. That is promising line movement in favor of Milwaukee and I agree in this case. I have this game set at +4, giving us a full FG of variance between my number and the current number if you factor in the half-point purchase. If you don't want to pay the -120, I would personally still play Milwaukee at +5 or better as I expect a highly motivated Bucks team tonight against a Knicks team that is not much better. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bucks for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
I'm really surprised the Bucks struggle with consistency so much with Skiles at the helm.
Then again, I think that's more of a sad commentary on today's NBA player than anything else. Skiles is probably better suited for the college game.Comment -
on it, any more plays?Comment -
LTA, great value. Line down to +5.Comment -
I think long term you might be right. Skiles would be a great college coach. Too bad Izzo is at MSU or he could go back home.
This is a huge test for the Bucks. If they don't win this game or play hard with a cover, I think Skiles may have lost the team and he could be in danger. One of the reasons I am taking the Bucks is based on their need to win to avoid their season from unraveling. This is a make-or-break it game for them, because the schedule does not let up after this.
GL NC
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