LTA's NBA Plays

[Donkeys2012]

Denver needs to start putting the damn ball in the hoop.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

they cant. sixers playing some d

[WalkingLuckCharm]

just need some nice 3s

[Love The Action]

any twitter feeds that you can recommend following?

thx. GL tonight.

http://twitter.com/davidgonos/#/nba-beat-writers

http://twitter.com/#!/Evanescent88/nba-beat-writers

Those are good compilation twitter feed and I also check various other individual writers daily.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/18/2012

Play #1

Nuggets/Sixers over (199) 1.5x and over (199.5) 1x (Locked)

I am not sure why the books are setting this matchup so low and that makes me a little leery. I have this game set at 205.5, over 5 points more than the opener and over 6 points of variance between the number I got and my model. Pinny is currently at 200 but juicing the under at -110 (which is like -120 at other books) and 5D is sitting at 199.5. When my local opened up at 199, I did not hesitate and I might add more after the ref assignments are released for only my second multi-unit play of the year (we cashed our sole 2x play on the first day of the season on the Bulls). I think the books are keeping this one in the 200 range because both teams play solid defense. However, Denver just played last night and is on a b2b, while Philly has not played the caliber of Denver's offense except in their opening game loss to Portland. Consequently, I think this one turns into an offensive, fast-paced game as opposed to a defensive struggle. If you look at the advanced stats, these are two of the deepest and most efficient offenses in the NBA today. Both teams go 8 deep or more in quality players that can put the ball in the hoop. In addition, both offenses generally play at a faster pace than their opponents with Denver ranking 1st and Philly 8th in PACE. With Denver and Philly ranked top 5 in OEFF, EFG% and TS%, against one tired defense and another that might be a bit overrated, and I think the over is the right play here. Denver is on a b2b, but had a day off before the two game stretch started and Philly had the day off yesterday. However, Philly's SOS which determines strenght of schedule is rated at -4.02, which is the second easiest schedule in the NBA to date. That means that Philly's dominating defensive numbers have been produced against weak offensive teams like Toronto, Detroit and NO. Consequently, I think the fast paced and highly efficient offense of Denver can put up some points against this Philly defense. However, I don't think you can point to the weak SOS as a reason for Philly's offense to be overrated because putting the ball in the hoop is not an easy thing to do, yet the also do it very efficiently. With the depth of both teams, we shouldn't see a marked dropoff in production when the reserves come in at the start of the second quarter or end of the 3rd and I expect a fast-paced game with consistent scoring throughout by both teams. In the past four matchups between these teams, none has been set lower than 207. I think the books are going lower today because of the defensive numbers of Philly. However, because I think those numbers are a bit fraudulent based on the weak SOS, I just can't set this game that low. Because I have this game set at 205.5, I am going to step out a bit and roll with the over for 2.5x. The ref assignments are favorable to the over, so I may add even more. Good luck.

Play #2

Mavericks (-3) 1x (Locked)

I should have taken this at -2.5 and bought the hook, but I thought Paul would play and I could maybe get this at a PK or even better if the Clipper money came in big. There's really not too much value here at this number as I also have Dallas set at -3. However, this is a huge fatigue spot for LA and without CP3, I'm not sure we will see the Clipper's best. I think they play much harder than yesterday and most starters only played 30 minutes, however, Dallas has been resting in LA stewing over that horrible offensive performance against the Lakers and I think they come out motivated in this high profile matchup. The offensive stats favor the Clippers, but without Paul those stats are not as strong. Where Dallas really dominates over the Clippers is on defense where Dallas is far superior in DEFF, DRB%, OEFG and most other defensive related stats. I am concerned about Nowitzki, but superstars tend to have good games when they are sick. Nevertheless, I am going to follow the line moves on this and might hedge out if there is something I don't like, especially if I think it's Nowitzki related. Because of how bad the Clippers played yesterday, there is a strong possibility of maximum, if not tired, effort tonight. Even though I think Del Negro is one of the worst coaches in the league, it sounded from some interviews like he was challenging his players to step up tonight. We shall see. I really like fading the Clippers in this fatigue spot, especially with Dallas being highly rested, but laying 3 points on the road in this game with some really good players on the Clippers is excessive. Therefore, if Dirk is not playing or if I don't like the line movement, I might hedge. For now, I am rolling with Dallas for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Both Denver and Philly hitting at 43% and we're only 4 points off a cashing pace. Let's hope we see some 60 point quarters in this 2h. Otherwise, this could be a nailbiter.

[mikey207]

LTA, I apologize if you've answered this already, but do you mind telling me what book(s) you use? Thanks.

[doogtonmai]

The 2nd half line is not large enough for me comfortably to hedge. I believe the line is 50/50 from the regulation line. I'm going to lay off of it, but for those missing the initial 199 posted by LTA, this is the time to take the over. Good Luck!

[alamo]

Both Denver and Philly hitting at 43% and we're only 4 points off a cashing pace. Let's hope we see some 60 point quarters in this 2h. Otherwise, this could be a nailbiter.

Were hanging in there LTA. Refs only gave the home town boys 2 freebies from the line in the first half. Hopefully they will help us out 2h and we see lots of good shooting from down town. GL to you and everyone on this...

[Donkeys2012]

Terrible 3rd quarter start.

[alamo]

Both teams just gone into penalty with 5min 30s left in third. Lets see loads of from here on in !

[WalkingLuckCharm]

need some points to close out the quarter!

[H1Cypher]

Damn......i should have locked up the mavs this morning. I thought cp3 would play thereby giving us a great number on the mavs. Now I have a decision to make...

You thought? I'm condescending? I thought I needed to do my homework? Didn't you have good sources.... what happened to that?

Sounds like I said you didn't know whether Chris Paul wold play. You said I'm condescending... sure enough you're hunches were wrong. So what do you have to say now? looks like I was right to tell you to 'slow your jets' don't take everything so literal

good luck to you also

[Dmil]

On pace end of 3rd 78-72

[TC Woods]

You thought? I'm condescending? I thought I needed to do my homework? Didn't you have good sources.... what happened to that?

Sounds like I said you didn't know whether Chris Paul wold play. You said I'm condescending... sure enough you're hunches were wrong. So what do you have to say now? looks like I was right to tell you to 'slow your jets' don't take everything so literal

good luck to you also

Quit "thinking" about doing your homework and get it finished or you'll never get out of the third grade!!!!!

I'm "thinking" YOU need to get off of your mom's ~puter or at the least move to a different thread.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

might have to hope for overtime. game will be slow for 4th

[Donkeys2012]

Philly is terrible. 40% shooting at home rested against a pitiful denver defense.

[dlunc3]

ughhh... was right on pace after the 3rd... until the scored 2 points in the first 3 minutes of the 4th

[Love The Action]

You thought? I'm condescending? I thought I needed to do my homework? Didn't you have good sources.... what happened to that?

Sounds like I said you didn't know whether Chris Paul wold play. You said I'm condescending... sure enough you're hunches were wrong. So what do you have to say now? looks like I was right to tell you to 'slow your jets' don't take everything so literal

good luck to you also

It's all about giving yourself as much of an edge as possible. No one got the early info tonight, but maybe next night we will. The whole point was that there is more to look at than the pre-game show. That was the whole point.

I'm done on this now. It's really no big deal and no hard feelings on this end. I'm much more worried about my play right now. Good luck buddy.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

hope for OT!

[Donkeys2012]

OT looks like the only hope now. Cant believe this shitty shooting in the 4th

[Love The Action]

Come on OT...one time please.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

just keep it a close game. a couple of clutch 3s and foul time

[Love The Action]

Yeah, but I'm worried it's too close of a score and they won't hurry the pace. Oh man, I really need this one.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

yeah need a big 3 somewhere

[RAVENSFAN]

Tough break. We needed the foul there

[WalkingLuckCharm]

oh man we need something good to happen

[Donkeys2012]

We need a foul. Damn starts to quarters tonight killed us.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

ooft this game looks finished

[RAVENSFAN]

Hope!!!

[WalkingLuckCharm]

CHOKE IGGY PLS CHOKE!!!

[WalkingLuckCharm]

come on give LTA SOME LUCK!!!

[Dmil]

96-96 4 sec left

[RAVENSFAN]

O man here we gooooooooooooo

[Love The Action]

OMG please just one time.