LTA's NBA Plays

**Love The Action** · 01-18-12, 10:40 AM

Is chris paul playing tonight?

**No coincidences** · 01-18-12, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Still need to work on that one a bit. GL

**TC Woods** · 01-18-12, 10:55 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Is chris paul playing tonight?

Not sure but I think this is a pretty good source for stuff other than being on the right twitter....the last update on Chris Paul was last night but you may want to keep your eye on this site..

Fantasy Sports

http://rotoworld.com/player/nba/1115/chris-paul/1

Find all the latest Rotoworld fantasy sports news, live coverage, videos, highlights, stats, predictions, and results right here on NBC Sports.

**TC Woods** · 01-18-12, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Added 1x to Play #1 for total of 2.5x. Correct units denoted above.

The ref assignments are favorable to the over with Rush, Palmer and Richardson wearing the whistle tonight. All three average over 40 fouls per game in games they have officiated throughout their career and generally end up with more overs than unders. I like almost everything about this play, so I am stepping out and rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

I was able to get some at "200" and now <5 minutes later my book has it at 201.5

**BubbleTeaJelly** · 01-18-12, 11:05 AM

haha wow pinny just shot up to 203 you are the man brother

**Love The Action** · 01-18-12, 11:07 AM

Originally posted by TC Woods

Not sure but I think this is a pretty good source for stuff other than being on the right twitter....the last update on Chris Paul was last night but you may want to keep your eye on this site..

http://rotoworld.com/player/nba/1115/chris-paul/1

Thanks...i also use rotoworld. Looking for some new sites. Good luck tc

**therocket** · 01-18-12, 11:15 AM

5dimes shot up from 200 to 202.5 in the last hour. Thanks LTA.

**CHAZ** · 01-18-12, 11:18 AM

LTA what do you do about getting a bad line? You're definitely one of the better guys here that catches the good lines but no one can predict the right move all the time. Any suggestions or thoughts?

Started a discussion here

SBR Forum - Sports Betting Talk - Sportsbook Review Forum

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1521927-getting-bad-number.html#post13309359

Sports betting and handicapping forum: discuss picks, odds, and predictions for upcoming games and results on latest bets.

**Cup Bound** · 01-18-12, 11:37 AM

Also locked this at 200 about an hour ago and my book is at 202 now. Thanks for the detailed write up. I know you don't tend to go out on the ledge with multiple units, so this was an easy play for me. GL

**apurvaas** · 01-18-12, 11:38 AM

Port/ ATL over 183.5? any take on that?

**bmansell33** · 01-18-12, 11:51 AM

Lta I like the over on denver as well kinda scary philly hasn't allowed over 100pts to any team in last 9 games

**apurvaas** · 01-18-12, 11:53 AM

Line to 204.5

amazing call LTA

**TC Woods** · 01-18-12, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by apurvaas

Line to 204.5

amazing call LTA

**BigBurk** · 01-18-12, 11:59 AM

I liked the under since this morning when it was at 200. So immidiately grabbed it when it hit the 202.5

**apurvaas** · 01-18-12, 12:04 PM

Originally posted by apurvaas

Line to 204.5

amazing call LTA

its at 202.5 (saw wrong line )

**apurvaas** · 01-18-12, 12:11 PM

Now at 203 ( too much movement ) makes me nervous

**wguan2** · 01-18-12, 12:16 PM

what do you guys think about this ny/phx line going from 195 opener to 204 where it sits right now? phx is a completely different team on the road and after shooting at such a high percentage and still losing last night, i just dont see them repeating such a high percentage. ny is 5th in pace but phx is actually 21st in pace. ny is 22nd in oeff and phx is 11 in oeff. in my opinion this ends up in a 99-90 type of game. i think phx ends up shooting poorly here. lta talks a lot about defense being the liability after a b2b but i think after phx shot so well last night and this is a road trip b2b, their offense suffers sharply as well.

**Redscot** · 01-18-12, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

As opposed to him spending cash on "proven" talent like Cameron, Drew, Lackey, etc.?

**Dmil** · 01-18-12, 12:22 PM

Originally posted by apurvaas

Now at 203 ( too much movement ) makes me nervous

My book 204.5 caught it at 200.5

**wguan2** · 01-18-12, 12:24 PM

Originally posted by wguan2

what do you guys think about this ny/phx line going from 195 opener to 204 where it sits right now? phx is a completely different team on the road and after shooting at such a high percentage and still losing last night, i just dont see them repeating such a high percentage. ny is 5th in pace but phx is actually 21st in pace. ny is 22nd in oeff and phx is 11 in oeff. in my opinion this ends up in a 99-90 type of game. i think phx ends up shooting poorly here. lta talks a lot about defense being the liability after a b2b but i think after phx shot so well last night and this is a road trip b2b, their offense suffers sharply as well.

this line and the denver line is so volatile right now. in 8 minutes, the ny/phx line got bet down from 204 to 201...

**Redscot** · 01-18-12, 12:26 PM

Originally posted by pacocn

red, any news on starlin castro?

Sup pacocn

. Nothing of relevance regarding Castro down here, same info as is being reported in the States....he has cooperated fully with the investigation and they maintain that the allegation is baseless. Time will tell.........

**NB-Ace** · 01-18-12, 12:41 PM

I locked this OVER in at 198.5 for $600 a few hours ago.. and just now I locked this UNDER in at 205.5 for another $450

Hopin' for a sweet middle

Thanks for the nice read.

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/18/2012

Play #1

Nuggets/Sixers over (199) 1.5x (Locked)

I am not sure why the books are setting this matchup so low and that makes me a little leery. I have this game set at 205.5, over 5 points more than the opener and over 6 points of variance between the number I got and my model. Pinny is currently at 200 but juicing the under at -110 (which is like -120 at other books) and 5D is sitting at 199.5. When my local opened up at 199, I did not hesitate and I might add more after the ref assignments are released for only my second multi-unit play of the year (we cashed our sole 2x play on the first day of the season on the Bulls). I think the books are keeping this one in the 200 range because both teams play solid defense. However, Denver just played last night and is on a b2b, while Philly has not played the caliber of Denver's offense except in their opening game loss to Portland. Consequently, I think this one turns into an offensive, fast-paced game as opposed to a defensive struggle. If you look at the advanced stats, these are two of the deepest and most efficient offenses in the NBA today. Both teams go 8 deep or more in quality players that can put the ball in the hoop. In addition, both offenses generally play at a faster pace than their opponents with Denver ranking 1st and Philly 8th in PACE. With Denver and Philly ranked top 5 in OEFF, EFG% and TS%, against one tired defense and another that might be a bit overrated, and I think the over is the right play here. Denver is on a b2b, but had a day off before the two game stretch started and Philly had the day off yesterday. However, Philly's SOS which determines strenght of schedule is rated at -4.02, which is the second easiest schedule in the NBA to date. That means that Philly's dominating defensive numbers have been produced against weak offensive teams like Toronto, Detroit and NO. Consequently, I think the fast paced and highly efficient offense of Denver can put up some points against this Philly defense. However, I don't think you can point to the weak SOS as a reason for Philly's offense to be overrated because putting the ball in the hoop is not an easy thing to do, yet the also do it very efficiently. With the depth of both teams, we shouldn't see a marked dropoff in production when the reserves come in at the start of the second quarter or end of the 3rd and I expect a fast-paced game with consistent scoring throughout by both teams. In the past four matchups between these teams, none has been set lower than 207. I think the books are going lower today because of the defensive numbers of Philly. However, because I think those numbers are a bit fraudulent based on the weak SOS, I just can't set this game that low. Because I have this game set at 205.5, I am going to step out a bit and roll with the over for 1.5x right now. If the ref assignments are favorable to the over, I will make this a 2x play as long as I can get 200 or less. Good luck.

**TC Woods** · 01-18-12, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by NB-Ace

I locked this OVER in at 198.5 for $600 a few hours ago.. and just now I locked this UNDER in at 205.5 for another $450

Hopin' for a sweet middle

Thanks for the nice read.

Ballsy...

**r1kkie** · 01-18-12, 01:01 PM

Originally posted by NB-Ace

I locked this OVER in at 198.5 for $600 a few hours ago.. and just now I locked this UNDER in at 205.5 for another $450

Hopin' for a sweet middle

Thanks for the nice read.

Best of luck to you! HOpe it cash!

**NB-Ace** · 01-18-12, 01:12 PM

Originally posted by TC Woods

Ballsy...

Originally posted by r1kkie

Best of luck to you! HOpe it cash!

^

thanks guys. And the initial bet was "ballsy", but I trust LTA when he steps out like that.. and the line movement since certainly backs him up.

..as far as the second bet, not much courage required there, it's just a no-brainer hedge with potential to double my winnings

**riffraff24** · 01-18-12, 03:23 PM

I still can't find any info on CP3's status tonight. I will let you know if I hear anything on local radio

**H1Cypher** · 01-18-12, 03:31 PM

I could be wrong. But game time decision usually means game time no? You can watch the pregame half hour before the game, they usually let you know if the player is playing.

**mbs4** · 01-18-12, 03:53 PM

Does anybody know the difference between the pace stat on espn and basketball-reference? Thanks.

**jas19illini** · 01-18-12, 04:10 PM

Originally posted by mbs4

Does anybody know the difference between the pace stat on espn and basketball-reference? Thanks.

Different sites have different formulas. Email their help staff and ask what formula they use.

I have teamrankings.com's formula if you want it.

**Love The Action** · 01-18-12, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by H1Cypher

I could be wrong. But game time decision usually means game time no? You can watch the pregame half hour before the game, they usually let you know if the player is playing.

No. Generally that information will be leaked well before game time and if you have a reliable source you can beat the line movement. If you wait for the pregame show, you will get stuck with a bad or unplayable number.

Getting fast, up to the minute and reliable injury information is critical in this day and age of sports investing.

**SlickRick1382** · 01-18-12, 04:23 PM

Originally posted by jas19illini

Different sites have different formulas. Email their help staff and ask what formula they use. I have teamrankings.com's formula if you want it.

I'll take it. What's the teamrankings formula?

**SlickRick1382** · 01-18-12, 04:24 PM

Damn, had a busy day visiting clients and wasn't' able to get on SBR at all today. The line on the 76ers and Nuggets is already at 203.5. Guess it's a no play for me. Hope everyone else cashes.

**basenock** · 01-18-12, 04:26 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

No. Generally that information will be leaked well before game time and if you have a reliable source you can beat the line movement. If you wait for the pregame show, you will get stuck with a bad or unplayable number.

Getting fast, up to the minute and reliable injury information is critical in this day and age of sports investing.

Sports Investing.. i like

**H1Cypher** · 01-18-12, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

No. Generally that information will be leaked well before game time and if you have a reliable source you can beat the line movement. If you wait for the pregame show, you will get stuck with a bad or unplayable number.

Getting fast, up to the minute and reliable injury information is critical in this day and age of sports investing.

And yet none of us have one.

**Donnie Brasco** · 01-18-12, 04:52 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

No. Generally that information will be leaked well before game time and if you have a reliable source you can beat the line movement. If you wait for the pregame show, you will get stuck with a bad or unplayable number.

Getting fast, up to the minute and reliable injury information is critical in this day and age of sports investing.

Excellent point which leads me to a question i would love to get ur thoughts on. If i had missed the line move on ur over play today, or any other play for that matter, wouldnt taking the worst number on the opposite side be the same play. In essence couldnt u negate the headache of trying to predict the line move by simply waiting for the move and fading the movement at its peak. Is that the same play?