LTA's NBA Plays

**YouHave2outs** · 01-16-12, 06:51 PM

big win streak starting

**absolutkaos** · 01-16-12, 07:43 PM

thanks for the early plays LTA...

any plays or leans on the late games?

**pokerwhiz90** · 01-16-12, 08:03 PM

nice hits today! didn't wake up in time for play 1, but cashed in on the 2nd

**Love The Action** · 01-16-12, 09:00 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/16/2012

Play #1

Cavaliers ML (+110) 1x (Locked)

Busy at work...no writeup but I think this is a good spot for the cavs despite charlottes revenge angle. The cavs are on 2 days rest, while the cats are playing their 3rd in 4 nights. Cavs are on a final game of a roadtrip and beat up on charlotte in the last game which is generally a fade spot. However, the cavs dominate charlotte in OEFF, DEFF, ORB%, DRB% and OTOV%. Cleveland needs to win every game and this game means a lot to end the road trip. Plus, after chewing out his players, jordan came out in the papers admitting the cats have no chance for the playoffs. That cant help moral. I like the cavs to win today. Good luck.

Play #2

Trail Blazers/Hornets under (182) 1x (Locked)

I think the blazers play down to the slow pace of the hornets today. Portland does not play well on the road and the hornets know they can't outrun or outgun the blazers. In addition, the hornets should dominate on the offensive glass thereby extending possessions throughout the game with the hornets ranking #2 in ORB% & #3 ib DRB% to portland's #16 & #14 rankings. The refs are unpredictable with salvatore, brown and williams, but the hornets are not adept at drawing fouls anyway. I have this game set at 180, giving us a full fg of value and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Mavericks/Lakers under (183) 1x (Locked)

All day, whenever this number got up to 183 it eventually dropped below that number not too far after. Therefore, when I saw it go back up to 183 about 10 minutes ago, I jumped on it. In this game, I think the Lakers will be ultra-motivated to seek revenge for last year's playoff loss. I think that motivation will show itself on the defensive side with Bynum dominating the paint and the Lakers team defense dominating on the perimeter where the Lakers rank 7th in opponent 3 pt %. All in all, both teams are playing great defense right now ranked in the top 7 in DEFF and are playing at a slower PACE ranked middle of the road. The key to this game will be on the boards where the Lakers are top 3 in ORB% and Dallas is #1 in DRB%. Consequently, I think we see a very intense game where each team is fighting for points and playing a slow half court game. This total at 183 range is the lowest we have seen from this matchup in years and last year it was set from 188-190. I think the low total is telling and Vegas expects a low scoring game tonight. The refs are Crawford, Kirkland and Lewis, with Kirkland and Lewis having great under histories with these teams and all three guys having a tendency for unders in low total games. I have this game set at 180.5 giving us almost a full 3 points in value and based on the foregoing I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**jas19illini** · 01-16-12, 09:07 PM

Hmm, my book has the OVER juiced. 183 (-115). Think ill wait a little bit to see if i can get 183.5.

**Love The Action** · 01-16-12, 09:12 PM

Originally posted by jas19illini

Hmm, my book has the OVER juiced. 183 (-115). Think ill wait a little bit to see if i can get 183.5.

Pinny juicing the under at -108, which is like -118 at any other book. Good luck.

**mikea33** · 01-16-12, 09:16 PM

based on the foregoing...i am tailing LTA for 1x

**jas19illini** · 01-16-12, 09:18 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Pinny juicing the under at -108, which is like -118 at any other book. Good luck.

Hmm, interesting. Im refreshing every 30 sec on my book lol. I might just cave and take the 183.

**jas19illini** · 01-16-12, 09:21 PM

Woohoo. It just hit 183.5. Grabbed it immediately. BOL tonight fellas.

**kl06ty** · 01-16-12, 09:23 PM

Missed the first two plays, but I know you will hit 3/3 today. MLK day baby! BOL!!!

**Love The Action** · 01-16-12, 09:25 PM

Originally posted by jas19illini

Woohoo. It just hit 183.5. Grabbed it immediately. BOL tonight fellas.

Nice....what book?

**hawley** · 01-16-12, 09:26 PM

good start to the day LTA

good luck on the late play

**Love The Action** · 01-16-12, 09:31 PM

Originally posted by hawley

good start to the day LTA

good luck on the late play

Thanks buddy, good luck to you as well.

**jas19illini** · 01-16-12, 09:47 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Nice....what book?

Oddsmaker

**brucethebear** · 01-16-12, 10:04 PM

Missed the early plays, but well played sir.

**wguan2** · 01-16-12, 10:28 PM

BOL LTA. I'm looking at some second half prediction models. What are your thoughts on these?

**Love The Action** · 01-16-12, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by wguan2

BOL LTA. I'm looking at some second half prediction models. What are your thoughts on these?

No opinion really. I think you should look into whatever interests you and whatever will provide you with the biggest edge. There's a lot you can do with possession based 2h models that don't require a lot of complexities.

**moguler** · 01-16-12, 11:17 PM

Only 33 in the first quarter. Looking good so far.
Btw, thanks for the early picks, LTA. Hope the last one will hit too.

**Love The Action** · 01-16-12, 11:23 PM

Wow, Charlotte is in a horrible fatigue spot tomorrow

**JuniorAnalyst** · 01-16-12, 11:24 PM

bet 365 has the live total set at 165 right now. Almost 3 Touchdown lower

looking good

**JuniorAnalyst** · 01-16-12, 11:26 PM

yea will be 5th game in 6 days

**killersweet** · 01-16-12, 11:37 PM

Great Calls today LTA

**doogtonmai** · 01-16-12, 11:45 PM

Advanced: Lakers O 90 2nd half... (overtime security) chance to win double if you middle or lose the juice.

**Love The Action** · 01-16-12, 11:54 PM

Originally posted by JuniorAnalyst

yea will be 5th game in 6 days

Plus 7 games in their last nine days. In that same span, Orlando will have played 4 games.

The question is whether you can keep Howard motivated in a game like that on b2b for them (even though before that they were off for two days so not really a bad fatigue spot). It's a shame that Howard is not giving it his all right now.

That's why I really admire Derrick Rose. He would never allow himself or any player on his team to play at less than a 100% level. He is a leader by example first and foremost and has developed that killer instinct that will lead to a championship one day.

I never make comparisons to MJ because he was truly one of a kind. However, Derrick Rose is a special kid that has the same type of commitment to excellence and killer instinct as Michael.

If Howard were really committed to winning as opposed to getting traded, Orlando could be a real threat in the East because of what Howard can provide in the middle. Ofcourse, Orlando is a tough team to back because if they rely on the perimeter an awful lot and if they go cold, they get in trouble.

**CheeseHead** · 01-16-12, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Wow, Charlotte is in a horrible fatigue spot tomorrow

Orlando -12 looks good at first glance...but they'll be on a B2B as well and there's always that possibility that they'll be looking ahead to the Spurs they play the very next night. Thinking that could give Charlotte a chance for a backdoor cover. Maybe under 192.5 is the play here. Also not sure what Charlotte's TT line will be but the under there could be decent as well. Thoughts?

**Love The Action** · 01-17-12, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by CheeseHead

Orlando -12 looks good at first glance...but they'll be on a B2B as well and there's always that possibility that they'll be looking ahead to the Spurs they play the very next night. Thinking that could give Charlotte a chance for a backdoor cover. Maybe under 192.5 is the play here. Also not sure what Charlotte's TT line will be but the under there could be decent as well. Thoughts?

Orlando or no play. Even though they are on a b2b, they had two days off before these last two games. That is generally considered a pretty big nullifier in fatigue analysis.

I don't play TT's and I would need to know what the number is to comment.

No lean on the total right now. Neither team will be interested in playing defense in this game. Orland is naturally better with Howard, but Charlotte has no presence in the front court. If Howard wants to, he could have his biggest game of the year outside of the hack-a-Howard game.

**NYSportsGuy210** · 01-17-12, 12:24 AM

Charlotte has trouble scoring against Orlando. Usually score ranges anywhere from mid 70's to mid 80's.

**pokerwhiz90** · 01-17-12, 12:26 AM

wow, what a day

**kl06ty** · 01-17-12, 12:58 AM

You could add another quarter in the Lakers game and they could possibly still not beat the under (knock on wood)

**Love The Action** · 01-17-12, 01:04 AM

Nice...D.Fisher

**JuniorAnalyst** · 01-17-12, 01:04 AM

looks like overtimes on its way....hope we dont get butf*cked

**pokerwhiz90** · 01-17-12, 01:10 AM

fish

**CheeseHead** · 01-17-12, 01:13 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Nice...D.Fisher

The guy is clutch. Before that shot happened all I was thinking was...where is Robert Horry when you need him? Forgot about Fisher..

**SUPREME** · 01-17-12, 01:14 AM

That was the most atrocious shooting I've seen in a while. Nice hit LTA.

**hawley** · 01-17-12, 01:16 AM

Sick day LTA, very nice work