LTA's NBA Plays

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 06:15 PM

Originally posted by bmansell33

Like this nyg pack game more % of bets on nyg but pack still favored?

No. The amount of wagers has absolutely no affect on who is a favorite or an underdog. It can, however, affect which way the line moves.

**bmansell33** · 01-15-12, 06:17 PM

Thanks for clarifying

**bmansell33** · 01-15-12, 06:57 PM

Like this nyg pack game more % of bets on nyg but pack still favored?

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 07:12 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/15/11

Play #1

Suns/Spurs over (196) 1x (Locked)

There are some concerns with this game, but I'm going to take a shot in this spot with two veteran teams. First the concerns, which revolve around a slow pace and really unfavorable ref assignments. Neither team is playing at a fast pace this season with both averaging around 91 possession per game. That's not a fast pace, especially for the Suns who are typically in the top 10 of the league in PACE during the Nash era. However, both Nash and Hill are playing today and it always helps to have those two veterans in the lineup. In addition, Gentry keeps talking about how the Suns need to get back to a faster pace and actually praised his team in the loss to the Nets by talking up their offensive tempo. The reason both Gentry and Nash have stated for their slower pace this season has been their lack of defending against the offensive boards. When you can't rebound on defense, you can't play uptempo. However, I'm not particularly worried about that in this game because the Spurs are not a great offensive rebounding team, ranking 16th overall in ORB%. If the Suns can get in a good rhythm early, I think they push the pace like the days of old, especially since they are playing one of their biggest rivals and especially when neither team is playing defense right now. Although both teams rank in the top 11 in OEFF with the Spurs ranked 3rd in the league and the Suns 11th, both teams are playing poorly on the defensive end where SA is 17th and the Suns 23rd in DEFF. In addition, both offenses are ranked top 10 in EFG% and TS%, but in the bottom 1/3 of the league in those defensive categories. Consequently, I think this game poses a great opportunity to fade the public who is pounding the under at a 30/70 clip in favor of a lower scoring game. The fact that neither offense is very good at drawing fouls does not help us, however, that point is mooted a bit by the fact that the ref assignments generally favor the under here with Callahan and Jones both being solid "under" leaning refs. Therefore, there weren't going to be too many fouls regardless. We do have Richardson who does tend to call some fouls, however, in general the refs do not favor this play. Nevertheless, I think this over is all about shooting percentages and I think both offenses shoot well because neither defense is playing great basketball right now, they are both coming off a day of rest and Nash and Hill are both playing which tells me that the Suns are going to give maximum effort. In recent interviews, Gentry stated that he didn't think either would play until 100% or until they were in a playoff type game. I think the Suns are approaching this as a big game against a historic opponent they love to run and gun against as evidenced by their last 10 games going well over 196 points. In fact, last season, this same matchup was set at 207, 209 and 212 twice, with 3 overs and 1 under that still hit 209 points as a final score. I think the books have overadjusted a little bit too much dueto this bad Suns team, thereby giving us some value on the over. I should also point at that when this game opened at Pinny, it immediately took over money getting the line all the way up to 199, where it slowly dropped down to the 196/196.5 range from the public money supporting the under. Therefore, I think the sharp money waiting for the open was buying the over, unless they were forcing the number up for a buyback which I don't think is the case. I have this game set at 200 even and if both teams can get into a shooting rhythm, this one should sail over the posted total in the 200's. If we don't see both teams shoot well, it could be a struggle because the refs will not be giving us any help. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 08:15 PM

Really leaning toward the Jazz/Nuggets over since the Jazz are playing at such a fast pace recently, but I will have to pass. I can't take this over 206 and I'm not paying -120 for that number. Really, I probably shouldn't take it over the number of 205. I have this one set at 208.

**Donnie Brasco** · 01-15-12, 08:16 PM

Thats what i was saying earlier, this thing steamed from 203 to 206.5-207 really early today.

**Redscot** · 01-15-12, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Really leaning toward the Jazz/Nuggets over since the Jazz are playing at such a fast pace recently, but I will have to pass. I can't take this over 206 and I'm not paying -120 for that number. Really, I probably shouldn't take it over the number of 205. I have this one set at 208.

Makes me feel very good bro, nabbed a stale 204 earlier in the day...Hoping for the best...have G.S. over 185 atm sweatin' that one out.....

**bmansell33** · 01-15-12, 08:21 PM

Like this nyg pack game more % of bets on nyg but pack still favored?

**Redscot** · 01-15-12, 08:23 PM

Originally posted by bmansell33

Like this nyg pack game more % of bets on nyg but pack still favored?

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 08:24 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Makes me feel very good bro, nabbed a stale 204 earlier in the day...Hoping for the best...have G.S. over 185 atm sweatin' that one out.....

Good luck!

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/15/11

Play #1

Suns/Spurs over (196) 1x (Locked)

There are some concerns with this game, but I'm going to take a shot in this spot with two veteran teams. First the concerns, which revolve around a slow pace and really unfavorable ref assignments. Neither team is playing at a fast pace this season with both averaging around 91 possession per game. That's not a fast pace, especially for the Suns who are typically in the top 10 of the league in PACE during the Nash era. However, both Nash and Hill are playing today and it always helps to have those two veterans in the lineup. In addition, Gentry keeps talking about how the Suns need to get back to a faster pace and actually praised his team in the loss to the Nets by talking up their offensive tempo. The reason both Gentry and Nash have stated for their slower pace this season has been their lack of defending against the offensive boards. When you can't rebound on defense, you can't play uptempo. However, I'm not particularly worried about that in this game because the Spurs are not a great offensive rebounding team, ranking 16th overall in ORB%. If the Suns can get in a good rhythm early, I think they push the pace like the days of old, especially since they are playing one of their biggest rivals and especially when neither team is playing defense right now. Although both teams rank in the top 11 in OEFF with the Spurs ranked 3rd in the league and the Suns 11th, both teams are playing poorly on the defensive end where SA is 17th and the Suns 23rd in DEFF. In addition, both offenses are ranked top 10 in EFG% and TS%, but in the bottom 1/3 of the league in those defensive categories. Consequently, I think this game poses a great opportunity to fade the public who is pounding the under at a 30/70 clip in favor of a lower scoring game. The fact that neither offense is very good at drawing fouls does not help us, however, that point is mooted a bit by the fact that the ref assignments generally favor the under here with Callahan and Jones both being solid "under" leaning refs. Therefore, there weren't going to be too many fouls regardless. We do have Richardson who does tend to call some fouls, however, in general the refs do not favor this play. Nevertheless, I think this over is all about shooting percentages and I think both offenses shoot well because neither defense is playing great basketball right now, they are both coming off a day of rest and Nash and Hill are both playing which tells me that the Suns are going to give maximum effort. In recent interviews, Gentry stated that he didn't think either would play until 100% or until they were in a playoff type game. I think the Suns are approaching this as a big game against a historic opponent they love to run and gun against as evidenced by their last 10 games going well over 196 points. In fact, last season, this same matchup was set at 207, 209 and 212 twice, with 3 overs and 1 under that still hit 209 points as a final score. I think the books have overadjusted a little bit too much dueto this bad Suns team, thereby giving us some value on the over. I should also point at that when this game opened at Pinny, it immediately took over money getting the line all the way up to 199, where it slowly dropped down to the 196/196.5 range from the public money supporting the under. Therefore, I think the sharp money waiting for the open was buying the over, unless they were forcing the number up for a buyback which I don't think is the case. I have this game set at 200 even and if both teams can get into a shooting rhythm, this one should sail over the posted total in the 200's. If we don't see both teams shoot well, it could be a struggle because the refs will not be giving us any help. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck

Really pleased with the play as it closed at Pinny 197.5(-108), giving us 1.5 points of value against the closer. The pace is great to start the game, but both teams are shooting like crap to star the game. Let's hope they keep up the pace and start shooting a little better.

**Overbettor** · 01-15-12, 09:28 PM

I missed your first play but did take over 205 in denver earlier. I dont post much but do follow all of your threads with overall success. Thanks and good luck to all

**adamo1018** · 01-15-12, 09:36 PM

Good call so far man. I was going to jump on this one with but just chose the nuggets/jazz under 207 instead. Hopefully we both cash tonight!

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 10:11 PM

Great pace for the game so far, but Phoenix can't hit a broad side of a barrel. Nevertheless, we have 98 points at half despite the Suns shooting 35%. All we need is for this same pace to continue and for the Suns to get their FG% above 41% and we should be ok. This one is going to be close.

**pokerwhiz90** · 01-15-12, 10:16 PM

looking good! hoping for an overtime!

**alamo** · 01-15-12, 10:23 PM

My concern here is that the Suns are so far behind that they throw the towel in a few mins into the 4th and bring in the scubbers.

**bmansell33** · 01-15-12, 11:24 PM

Like this nyg pack game more % of bets on nyg but pack still favored?

**joco** · 01-15-12, 11:28 PM

WOW. lost the total and i had phoenix +10

**pokerwhiz90** · 01-15-12, 11:28 PM

that ending was pretty lame, suns missed every shot in teh last 4 minutes except one dunk

**kl06ty** · 01-15-12, 11:30 PM

**** the Suns! What a ******* joke their team is! No ******* energy or pride at all. They pretty much quit in the last 4 minutes

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 11:31 PM

Missed another one by 3 fuking points after it was on a 201 pace with 4 minutes left. Just unreal....when it rains it pours

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 11:32 PM

Originally posted by bmansell33

Like this nyg pack game more % of bets on nyg but pack still favored?

Why do you keep posting this?

**PolishSensation** · 01-15-12, 11:35 PM

I put another unit on 194.5 over (Live Bet).

I got killed this weekend.

**Love The Action** · 01-15-12, 11:36 PM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/15/2012 Recap

0 -1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

34 - 29 = +3.95x

Can't even describe how sick that loss was in the Suns/Spurs game. Just a brutal beat. Very disgusted over that play. Beat the closer by 1.5 points and it was on a 201 pace with 4 minutes left when both teams decided to miss almost every shot they took. Very frustrating.

**mikey207** · 01-15-12, 11:39 PM

Bad beat, the Over was the correct play.

**bmansell33** · 01-15-12, 11:40 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Why do you keep posting this?

Fml i dont know my ipad keeps posting it randomly

**doogtonmai** · 01-15-12, 11:41 PM

Originally posted by PolishSensation

I put another unit on 194.5 over (Live Bet).

I got killed this weekend.

I waited to place the 1 unit wager on the over at 194 4th quarter getting some value and lost too.

**Overbettor** · 01-15-12, 11:42 PM

I lost 5x on the over in denver/utah by 3 and they missed 19 shots from the charity stripe. Just an awful day. We'll get em tomorrow

**kl06ty** · 01-15-12, 11:46 PM

Note to self: When it looks too good to be true, its a ******* trap (Phoenix Suns ugh!)

**brucethebear** · 01-16-12, 01:02 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Can't even describe how sick that loss was in the Suns/Spurs game. Just a brutal beat. Very disgusted over that play. Beat the closer by 1.5 points and it was on a 201 pace with 4 minutes left when both teams decided to miss almost every shot they took. Very frustrating.

Bad luck mate. I cannot beleive how many bad beats you have copped in the last few days.

**pokerwhiz90** · 01-16-12, 01:05 AM

its all about the long term, can wait till a couple weeks when we start ripping up bigger units

**TC Woods** · 01-16-12, 01:35 AM

Today was one of those days.... lucky days.

First off, I placed a bet on Utah and the U205. No real investigation other than Utah had played the night before and would have "tired legs". After placing the wager I watched it move to 207 and just knew I'd screwed up...

Secondly, after seeing LTA post his suggestion tonight, I went to my book to follow... unfortunately I screwed up and instead of taking the over, I selected the under....

Bottom line is that I won 4 units today.

**brucethebear** · 01-16-12, 06:45 AM

Originally posted by TC Woods

Today was one of those days.... lucky days.

First off, I placed a bet on Utah and the U205. No real investigation other than Utah had played the night before and would have "tired legs". After placing the wager I watched it move to 207 and just knew I'd screwed up...

Secondly, after seeing LTA post his suggestion tonight, I went to my book to follow... unfortunately I screwed up and instead of taking the over, I selected the under....

Bottom line is that I won 4 units today.

I wish I was that unlucky

**Trivial** · 01-16-12, 06:58 AM

Originally posted by bmansell33

Fml i dont know my ipad keeps posting it randomly

Close every tab in your web browser (Safari). Have nothing open.

Everyime you refresh this forum, you will repost otherwise. Been there.

**Redscot** · 01-16-12, 07:03 AM

Originally posted by TC Woods

Today was one of those days.... lucky days.

First off, I placed a bet on Utah and the U205. No real investigation other than Utah had played the night before and would have "tired legs". After placing the wager I watched it move to 207 and just knew I'd screwed up...

Secondly, after seeing LTA post his suggestion tonight, I went to my book to follow... unfortunately I screwed up and instead of taking the over, I selected the under....

Bottom line is that I won 4 units today.

"I'd Rather be lucky than good"
Lefty Gomez.

Glad you made some money, but that's some dangerous wagering my friend.