LTA's NBA Plays

[burchfield]

Grrrrr.....

[Redscot]

Told ya.....UNDER 92.5 total points for Charlotte was a steal today.

Good call. I would love to see you open your own thread. You pop up in most of the successful threads and seem to do pretty well. Would be a lot easier to track you if you kept it all in one place .

BOL

[alamo]

My book had this Denver\Milwaukee 2h at 91.0 for the second half despite a 107pt first half. That scares me.

[dlunc3]

denver 3 points the first 6 minutes of this half... just not our night... utah coming out strong though

[alamo]

Good call. I would love to see you open your own thread. You pop up in most of the successful threads and seem to do pretty well. Would be a lot easier to track you if you kept it all in one place . BOL

Yes, amazing how he seems to nail these predictions and then come in and tell you all about it after the event. I've seen him make numerous losing calls in threads but strangely enough he never comes back in to talk about those

[Donkeys2012]

I agree. He also likes to whine about refs fixing games even when his bet is winning. But doesnt suprise me based on his avatar.

[dlunc3]

nuggs keeping their respect last 6 minutes of the 3rd... good stuff, now lets finish this off

[CheeseHead]

Orlando -12 looks good at first glance...but they'll be on a B2B as well and there's always that possibility that they'll be looking ahead to the Spurs they play the very next night. Thinking that could give Charlotte a chance for a backdoor cover. Maybe under 192.5 is the play here. Also not sure what Charlotte's TT line will be but the under there could be decent as well. Thoughts?

Talked about it...did I actually play it? Nah, why would I?

Bad first quarter is what killed the -11, close but no cigar. Get the next one!

[alamo]

I fear another all too familiar low scoring 4th qtr in the Bucks game. They are getting blown out of the gym and look like their about to pull the scrubbers.

[alamo]

...And as i type Brandon Jennings nails 2 from down town. That could give em life going into the last 5mins

[Andrewsurf]

phew that was close

[WalkingLuckCharm]

good hit on the over

[dlunc3]

cash it

[alamo]

Just about!

[SoxSide Irish]

Galinari!!!!!!!

[dlunc3]

way to finish strong

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/17/2012 Recap

2 - 2 = -0.3x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

39 - 31 = +6.75x

That Bulls game was never close, but was still a good play getting it at 184.5, considering it closed at 180.5. The Magic game was a disappointment. I really thought the fatigue spot would have had more of an impact on Charlotte. However, I think the look-ahead spot for the Magic was the winning angle in this game. Live and learn and onto Wednesday.

[ChicagoCover]

Like the thread, GL

[CheeseHead]

What you think of Minnesota -8? I'm not sure how you don't fade Detroit...on a B2B road game..Minnesota should be fresh and should be able to put a good game together at home. Just a lean for me right now of course but would like to see your thoughts on this LTA.

[Pluthero]

I really thought the fatigue spot would have had more of an impact on Charlotte. However, I think the look-ahead spot for the Magic was the winning angle in this game. Live and learn and onto Wednesday.

It was a good call on the Magic; it just looks like the fatigue factor didn't set in for Charlotte until the second quarter. Keep up the good work LTA, I think those plays hit more often than not.

[Love The Action]

What you think of Minnesota -8? I'm not sure how you don't fade Detroit...on a B2B road game..Minnesota should be fresh and should be able to put a good game together at home. Just a lean for me right now of course but would like to see your thoughts on this LTA.

I think Minny is the play or no play, but I still have to work on this game some more. I can't quite come to terms with the fact that Minny is favored by 8 over anyone though. One could argue that Minny is overvalued in this spot considering the last time they played at the end of last season Minny was a four point dog at Detroit. If you adjust for home court, Minny would -2. That means, the books are adding 6 points in luxury tax to take Minny here and that's a lot. Anything over 7 in this game might be risky. Plus, I expect Minny to be a huge public fave today -- as just about everyone will against Detroit for the rest of the year. Not that I care about backing a big public play, but I like to be on the other side if possible. I will work on this one some more and see where the line goes. GL in whatever you choose.

[Love The Action]

It was a good call on the Magic; it just looks like the fatigue factor didn't set in for Charlotte until the second quarter. Keep up the good work LTA, I think those plays hit more often than not.

Thanks

[Redscot]

GL today LTA .




P.S. Rumors down here that the Cubs are the front runners for the Cuban kid (Cespedes) I mentioned in the baseball thread. Don't know if I buy Epstein spending that kinda cash on an unproven (MLB baseball) talent. OK, back to Hoops .

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/18/2012

Play #1

Nuggets/Sixers over (199) 1.5x (Locked)

I am not sure why the books are setting this matchup so low and that makes me a little leery. I have this game set at 205.5, over 5 points more than the opener and over 6 points of variance between the number I got and my model. Pinny is currently at 200 but juicing the under at -110 (which is like -120 at other books) and 5D is sitting at 199.5. When my local opened up at 199, I did not hesitate and I might add more after the ref assignments are released for only my second multi-unit play of the year (we cashed our sole 2x play on the first day of the season on the Bulls). I think the books are keeping this one in the 200 range because both teams play solid defense. However, Denver just played last night and is on a b2b, while Philly has not played the caliber of Denver's offense except in their opening game loss to Portland. Consequently, I think this one turns into an offensive, fast-paced game as opposed to a defensive struggle. If you look at the advanced stats, these are two of the deepest and most efficient offenses in the NBA today. Both teams go 8 deep or more in quality players that can put the ball in the hoop. In addition, both offenses generally play at a faster pace than their opponents with Denver ranking 1st and Philly 8th in PACE. With Denver and Philly ranked top 5 in OEFF, EFG% and TS%, against one tired defense and another that might be a bit overrated, and I think the over is the right play here. Denver is on a b2b, but had a day off before the two game stretch started and Philly had the day off yesterday. However, Philly's SOS which determines strenght of schedule is rated at -4.02, which is the second easiest schedule in the NBA to date. That means that Philly's dominating defensive numbers have been produced against weak offensive teams like Toronto, Detroit and NO. Consequently, I think the fast paced and highly efficient offense of Denver can put up some points against this Philly defense. However, I don't think you can point to the weak SOS as a reason for Philly's offense to be overrated because putting the ball in the hoop is not an easy thing to do, yet the also do it very efficiently. With the depth of both teams, we shouldn't see a marked dropoff in production when the reserves come in at the start of the second quarter or end of the 3rd and I expect a fast-paced game with consistent scoring throughout by both teams. In the past four matchups between these teams, none has been set lower than 207. I think the books are going lower today because of the defensive numbers of Philly. However, because I think those numbers are a bit fraudulent based on the weak SOS, I just can't set this game that low. Because I have this game set at 205.5, I am going to step out a bit and roll with the over for 1.5x right now. If the ref assignments are favorable to the over, I will make this a 2x play as long as I can get 200 or less. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

GL today LTA .




P.S. Rumors down here that the Cubs are the front runners for the Cuban kid (Cespedes) I mentioned in the baseball thread. Don't know if I buy Epstein spending that kinda cash on an unproven (MLB baseball) talent. OK, back to Hoops .

Thanks buddy, I heard about that. Very interesting. We can talk MLB in here as we prepare for the season.
It might interest some of the guys that don't know as much about baseball.

What is your scouting report on this kid and how old is he (for real, not the fake age they tend to use in Cuba)?

[apurvaas]

I like Pho/NY over 197...

tailed Nug/sixers at 199.5

Thanks

[Love The Action]

I like Pho/NY over 197...

tailed Nug/sixers at 199.5

Thanks

I lean over with Phoe/NY, but I'm just not sure you can trust either offense right now. Phoenix does not have consistent scoring without Nash and Gortat on the court and the Knics are a mess right now. Good luck, I hope you cash that over.

[apurvaas]

I lean over with Phoe/NY, but I'm just not sure you can trust either offense right now. Phoenix does not have consistent scoring without Nash and Gortat on the court and the Knics are a mess right now. Good luck, I hope you cash that over.

Its my 1st NBA season and been following you and DAD.. you guys rock

Have 1.5u on DEN over 199.5 and 0.5u on Pho/NY over 197

[Love The Action]

Its my 1st NBA season and been following you and DAD.. you guys rock

Have 1.5u on DEN over 199.5 and 0.5u on Pho/NY over 197

Good luck buddy.

[giveuptheghost]

don't know what those coins (thumbs up) are for,
but I appreciate you sharing your thoughts on Philly - Denver game

good luck, mate

[No coincidences]

GL today LTA .




P.S. Rumors down here that the Cubs are the front runners for the Cuban kid (Cespedes) I mentioned in the baseball thread. Don't know if I buy Epstein spending that kinda cash on an unproven (MLB baseball) talent. OK, back to Hoops .

As opposed to him spending cash on "proven" talent like Cameron, Drew, Lackey, etc.?

[pacocn]

red, any news on starlin castro?

[No coincidences]

I like the IND/SAC over tonight LTA. Any thoughts on that one?

I'll hang up and listen.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/18/2012

Play #1

Nuggets/Sixers over (199) 1.5x and over (199.5) 1x (Locked)

I am not sure why the books are setting this matchup so low and that makes me a little leery. I have this game set at 205.5, over 5 points more than the opener and over 6 points of variance between the number I got and my model. Pinny is currently at 200 but juicing the under at -110 (which is like -120 at other books) and 5D is sitting at 199.5. When my local opened up at 199, I did not hesitate and I might add more after the ref assignments are released for only my second multi-unit play of the year (we cashed our sole 2x play on the first day of the season on the Bulls). I think the books are keeping this one in the 200 range because both teams play solid defense. However, Denver just played last night and is on a b2b, while Philly has not played the caliber of Denver's offense except in their opening game loss to Portland. Consequently, I think this one turns into an offensive, fast-paced game as opposed to a defensive struggle. If you look at the advanced stats, these are two of the deepest and most efficient offenses in the NBA today. Both teams go 8 deep or more in quality players that can put the ball in the hoop. In addition, both offenses generally play at a faster pace than their opponents with Denver ranking 1st and Philly 8th in PACE. With Denver and Philly ranked top 5 in OEFF, EFG% and TS%, against one tired defense and another that might be a bit overrated, and I think the over is the right play here. Denver is on a b2b, but had a day off before the two game stretch started and Philly had the day off yesterday. However, Philly's SOS which determines strenght of schedule is rated at -4.02, which is the second easiest schedule in the NBA to date. That means that Philly's dominating defensive numbers have been produced against weak offensive teams like Toronto, Detroit and NO. Consequently, I think the fast paced and highly efficient offense of Denver can put up some points against this Philly defense. However, I don't think you can point to the weak SOS as a reason for Philly's offense to be overrated because putting the ball in the hoop is not an easy thing to do, yet the also do it very efficiently. With the depth of both teams, we shouldn't see a marked dropoff in production when the reserves come in at the start of the second quarter or end of the 3rd and I expect a fast-paced game with consistent scoring throughout by both teams. In the past four matchups between these teams, none has been set lower than 207. I think the books are going lower today because of the defensive numbers of Philly. However, because I think those numbers are a bit fraudulent based on the weak SOS, I just can't set this game that low. Because I have this game set at 205.5, I am going to step out a bit and roll with the over for 2.5x. The ref assignments are favorable to the over, so I may add even more. Good luck.

Added 1x to Play #1 for total of 2.5x. Correct units denoted above.

The ref assignments are favorable to the over with Rush, Palmer and Richardson wearing the whistle tonight. All three average over 40 fouls per game in games they have officiated throughout their career and generally end up with more overs than unders. I like almost everything about this play, so I am stepping out and rolling with the over for 2.5x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I like the IND/SAC over tonight LTA. Any thoughts on that one?

I'll hang up and listen.

Still need to work on that one a bit. GL