LTA's NBA Plays

[apurvaas]

See my post above. I am still confident in the over despite the line movement. It's at 195.5, so only 1 point less. If it keeps dropping to the 194.5 range, then I would worry.

I think it's due to the possibility that Pop takes it easy on the starter's minutes tonight. However, as I mentioned above, that's not necessarily a bad thing.

I'm sticking with the under NO MATTER WHAT. I never hedge where there is a possibility of a polish middle.

If I can lose games where I beat the closer by 5 points, I can win games that I lose to the closer by 1 point.

you sticking with under?

[Love The Action]

Damn....just missed the line movement on Memphis from -4.5 to -5. I had finally decided to pay the -120 for the -4 and it jumped. I do lean to Memphis but not at -5. Let's keep an eye on that one....

[inn_keeper]

D-Rose confirmed OUT by Cavaliers beat writer with the Cleveland Plain Dealer via Twitter.

[Speedy88]

What is with the RLM on the Bucks/Knicks game? Trap for Knicks backers?

[joco]

twolves/clippers line jumped up a point to 191.5 also...sh!t b moooovin

[Love The Action]

you sticking with under?

Fixed it....you know what I mean

[Love The Action]

D-Rose confirmed OUT by Cavaliers beat writer with the Cleveland Plain Dealer via Twitter.

Good work...thanks!

[SlickRick1382]

See my post above. I am still confident in the over despite the line movement. It's at 195.5, so only 1 point less. If it keeps dropping to the 194.5 range, then I would worry. I think it's due to the possibility that Pop takes it easy on the starter's minutes tonight. However, as I mentioned above, that's not necessarily a bad thing. I'm sticking with the over NO MATTER WHAT. I never hedge where there is a possibility of a polish middle. If I can lose games where I beat the closer by 5 points, I can win games that I lose to the closer by 1 point.

You know I never go against you bud but I personally like the Under. Kings are atrocious on the road and are an undisciplined team. I see them losing by the 11 point spread and the under hitting. Hope I'm wrong since you have a greater following than I do and don't like to see you guys lose. Best of luck

Side Note:
Kings on the road:

Dec 27 @ Portland Trail Blazers 8.5 197 Lost 79 - 101 Loss / Under
Jan 3 @ Memphis Grizzlies 6 190 Lost 96 - 113 Loss / Over
Jan 4 @ Denver Nuggets 11.5 209 Lost 83 - 110 Loss / Under
Jan 10 @ Philadelphia 76ers 9.5 197 Lost 85 - 112 Loss / Under
Jan 11 @ Toronto Raptors 5.5 190 Won 98 - 91 Win / Under
Jan 13 @ Houston Rockets 8.5 200 Lost 89 - 103 Loss / Under
Jan 14 @ Dallas Mavericks 12.5 195 Lost 60 - 99 Loss / Under
Jan 16 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 7.5 198 Lost 86 - 99 Loss / Under

[Love The Action]

twolves/clippers line jumped up a point to 191.5 also...sh!t b moooovin

Does that mean Chris Paul is playing or unrelated. I am seeing that he is still doubtful. Anyone have an update on CP3?

[apurvaas]

Does that mean Chris Paul is playing or unrelated. I am seeing that he is still doubtful. Anyone have an update on CP3?

nothing out yet! still doubtful!

[WalkingLuckCharm]

good luck for your bets today LTA.

[Love The Action]

You know I never go against you bud but I personally like the Under. Kings are atrocious on the road and are an undisciplined team. I see them losing by the 11 point spread and the under hitting. Hope I'm wrong since you have a greater following than I do and don't like to see you guys lose. Best of luck

Side Note:
Kings on the road:

Dec 27 @ Portland Trail Blazers 8.5 197 Lost 79 - 101 Loss / Under
Jan 3 @ Memphis Grizzlies 6 190 Lost 96 - 113 Loss / Over
Jan 4 @ Denver Nuggets 11.5 209 Lost 83 - 110 Loss / Under
Jan 10 @ Philadelphia 76ers 9.5 197 Lost 85 - 112 Loss / Under
Jan 11 @ Toronto Raptors 5.5 190 Won 98 - 91 Win / Under
Jan 13 @ Houston Rockets 8.5 200 Lost 89 - 103 Loss / Under
Jan 14 @ Dallas Mavericks 12.5 195 Lost 60 - 99 Loss / Under
Jan 16 @ Minnesota Timberwolves 7.5 198 Lost 86 - 99 Loss / Under

Yep...everyone loves the under. We shall see. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

I have a question for ya.....From your experience which sports have the sharpest money wagered on them? It stands to reason that some sports, and some teams, have more public support, hence when the line moves on the Cowboys it has a good deal of public money involved. I am curious in particular about College Basketball, would you consider it to have a high % of sharp money as John Q. has NBA/NHL/NFL to bet on as well as other factors. I have been tracking College hoops this season and it has been remarkable thus far the winning % as it relates to the direction that the line moved. Thanks man, always appreciate your insight.

I think there's sharp money in every market. I don't think the amount of sharp money varies. Sharp syndicates have advanced algorhythms and inside information for every market. They are always searching for soft lines wherever they might be, because they have the time and capital investment to do so.

I think what you are really referring to is betting volume. That is what varies. Generally, NFL is by far the biggest volume generator for the books, then probably NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, MLB, NHL and so on and so forth. Therefore, you are going to find sharp money in every market, but there might not be as much betting volume to counteract that sharp money. Consequently, you might see more drastic line moves.

Take the WNBA for example where the betting volume is low. When a RAS or another syndicate hits the line, you know it because there is going to be a significant move. When the sharps hit the NFL market, you might see a .5 move and it won't be as pronounced because there is much more volume.

I would be interested in seeing your sample size of what you say is high winning percentage in NCAAB by steam chasing. You're not the first one to think of that as a viable profit stream. However, unless you can bet into slow moving lines -- like you can do through your local -- you won't win steam chasing because you will invariably get a worse number than the "sharpies."

[Andrewsurf]

Any leans on the Boston/Phoenix game? I had a low blood sugar moment earlier today and locked in the under of 185.5 thinking it was Chicago/Cleveland...

Whoops.... wondering if I should let it ride or try to eat the juice.

Normally wouldn't ask because I know any game you don't post on is probably a stay away for good reason.

[Redscot]

I think there's sharp money in every market. I don't think the amount of sharp money varies. Sharp syndicates have advanced algorhythms and inside information for every market. They are always searching for soft lines wherever they might be, because they have the time and capital investment to do so.

I think what you are really referring to is betting volume. That is what varies. Generally, NFL is by far the biggest volume generator for the books, then probably NCAAF, NBA, NCAAB, MLB, NHL and so on and so forth. Therefore, you are going to find sharp money in every market, but there might not be as much betting volume to counteract that sharp money. Consequently, you might see more drastic line moves.

Take the WNBA for example where the betting volume is low. When a RAS or another syndicate hits the line, you know it because there is going to be a significant move. When the sharps hit the NFL market, you might see a .5 move and it won't be as pronounced because there is much more volume.

I would be interested in seeing your sample size of what you say is high winning percentage in NCAAB by steam chasing. You're not the first one to think of that as a viable profit stream. However, unless you can bet into slow moving lines -- like you can do through your local -- you won't win steam chasing because you will invariably get a worse number than the "sharpies."

Thanks bro. The sample size is puny, it just got me thinking about the "Volume" that you refer to. Not a betting strategy for me, but wanted to kick the tires and see how people who are more in the know (you) evaluate line movement in different markets. As you touched on, the "sharps" will have a greater influence on line movement in the markets that generate lesser volume.

[edmskid]

LTA - just wanted to say I'm enjoying the thread. Been lurking here a few weeks, and I wanted to give you more pts above, but seemed to only let me give 2 :-). Anyway, thanks a lot for all your hard work, and especially for sharing it with us. I've had bad luck/no success with NBA, but I'm hoping that changes soon - a lot of it thanks to you. I'm not tailing mind you, never a good idea to dismiss your gut, but I love the depth of analysis and the mix of intuition you put in there. So, thanks!

PS. Laying a small *1 on Phx ML - can't see the Celts transition game having the same pop and finish without Rondo, and Phx, although schizo, is looking better by the game. What do you think?

[Love The Action]

Any leans on the Boston/Phoenix game? I had a low blood sugar moment earlier today and locked in the under of 185.5 thinking it was Chicago/Cleveland...

Whoops.... wondering if I should let it ride or try to eat the juice.

Normally wouldn't ask because I know any game you don't post on is probably a stay away for good reason.

Gun to my head, I would take over but no play for me. Good luck dude.

BTW, if you wanted to hedge out, you can take the over at 185 so if the game ends at 185 you could actually win with only the juice at risk. But you should do what YOU think is best.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

I'm on the suns spread, only because I think there is a chance Nash will be able to control the pace of the whole game with rondo out. If he can control it I believe he can keep it close.

[Andrewsurf]

Gun to my head, I would take over but no play for me. Good luck dude.

BTW, if you wanted to hedge out, you can take the over at 185 so if the game ends at 185 you could actually win with only the juice at risk. But you should do what YOU think is best.

Thanks for the advice, I also was leaning over but I'm in this game. I hedged with the over since its down to 183 at my book, rootin for the middle! (never hit one, hopefully dumb luck will prevail tonight)

BOL on all the other picks, lets do this thing!

[LeoMessi]

Hello LTA I'm new to this forum and I wanted to thank you for your work. I'm learning a lot through reading your posts. About tonight card, is it final?

[Love The Action]

No play on Memphis....I just couldn't pull the trigger at -5 and I wasn't about to pay -130. I do think that is a strong play though. I wish I would have been able to mode/cap that game sooner.

[aussieH]

LTA what impact on the game total do you think it has when a star player withdraws from the game. I know it depends on the player but say D Rose for the Bulls. Does this reduce the Bulls chance of scoring or easier to score for the opposition. Lines generally move down when the player withdraws I have noticed.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/20/2012

Play #1

Bucks (+6)(-120) 1x (Locked)

Because the Bucks are struggling on the road, I do not want to get "hooked" and will pay the -120. While it is not a profitable long term strategy to pay -120 on a daily basis, if you pick your spots it can definitely be +ev. I have paid -120 about 5 times so far this season winning 3 of those games, losing one and pushing on the other. Therefore, that push itself has saved me 1x on the season and I am not adverse to paying -120 under the right circumstances moving forward. In this game, we have two teams that are remarkably similar both quantitatively and qualitatively and I believe the books are overvaluing the Knicks in this particular matchup. If you look at OEFF, eFG%, TOV%, TS% and FT/FGA, you will see the Bucks actually have the advantage or these teams are ranked within mere percentage points of each other. While the Knicks do have the advantage defensively in most of those same advanced defensive categories (and how crazy is that?!?), that advantage is not to such an extent that the Bucks should be giving anything more than 4 points in this game. Both teams are rested, but the Bucks are coming in off 2 days of rest, while the Knicks only had one day and Carmelo Anthony was unable to practice because of familial reasons. That could be a distraction, but even if it's not, I think the two days will have helped the Bucks much more than the one day helped the Knicks. Make no mistake, the Bucks are struggling and have yet to win a road game. In addition, there could be a feud between Skiles and Jackson because of Skiles' benching of Jackson for the 2h in their last loss. However, both parties say that they have resolved the matter and it is no longer an issue. I think this could actually be good for the Bucks and provide some extra motivation for Jackson. Plus, I like Skiles as a coach much more than D'Antoni and I think Skiles will have used these last two days to fire up his troops for a NY assault mission, especially on defense where they have struggled. With the Knicks playing horrible offense, much of which can be attributed to Anthony's holding the ball and one-on-one style, I think this presents the perfect game for the Bucks to get back to that hard-nosed defense they have been playing for years under Skiles. This is especially true if you consider Anthony's missed practice -- that will not help the efficiency of the Knicks offense. Both teams are desperate for a win and I expect the Bucks to come out highly motivated. This game opened up at +6 or +6.5 depending where you look, but took immediate Bucks money driving down the price to the +5 to +5.5 range despite 70% of all wagers coming in on the Knicks. That is promising line movement in favor of Milwaukee and I agree in this case. I have this game set at +4, giving us a full FG of variance between my number and the current number if you factor in the half-point purchase. If you don't want to pay the -120, I would personally still play Milwaukee at +5 or better as I expect a highly motivated Bucks team tonight against a Knicks team that is not much better. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Bucks for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/Spurs over (196.5) 1x (Locked)

As soon as Pinny moved to -110 at 197, my local that follows Pinny/5D lines dropped to 196.5. Once I saw this game under the key number of 197, I had to jump on it. The Spurs play lights-out offensively when at home and neither team is playing at a high defensive level. In addition, with the Spurs playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, I think their defense will be especially lagging. When fatigued, it's natural for a basketball player to exert what little energy they have on the offensive side of the ball because that comes naturally as opposed to defense which is all about effort. The Spurs are ranked 4th in OEFF and eFG%, while ranked 6th in TS%. Even though the Kings' offense is nowhere near as efficient, they play at the 7th fasted PACE and excel at drawing fouls with a FT/FGA ranking of 7th and offensive rebounds with a ORB% of .308 ranking 2nd in the league. Because Sacramento is rested, I expect them to push the pace against this tired SA team and force them to adjust. Both defense are struggling ranking in the bottom 11 of DEFF, OeFG% and OTS%. After two games playing against much better defenses in Miami and Orlando, I think we see the Spurs light it up tonight against the Kings who really don't like to put too much effort into the defensive end. The refs are Malloy, Adams and Forte. All three favor the over slightly with a per game crew average of at least 40 fouls, or are relatively neutral. If you look at the line movement around 11:58 AM at Pinny, you will see a very brief dip down to 196 and then almost immediately back up as though someone dropped some money on under to get it under the key number of 197 and then jumped back over the top on the over driving it back up to that key number. I have this game set at 200 and we're getting over 3 points of "value" here. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bulls/Cavaliers under (186.5) 1x (Locked)

I'm jumping on this number now before Rose is confirmed out, which I am pretty sure will happen. Even if he plays, I like the under here. The majority of all bets on the over in this game, but I just don't see it regardless of the Rose injury. If Rose plays, he won't be 100%. Personally, I don't think Paxson, Forman and Thibs will risk him for a nondescript road game in Cleveland. This is especially true after how well Watson and the "bench mob" played against Phoenix. In this game, I don't see them shooting 54% overall or 50% from beyond the arc. Although Cleveland is not the best defensive team, they are improving and Byron Scott is the type of coach that emphasizes defense. Currently, they are a middle of the road defensive team but show promises. They work hard and crash the boards as evidenced by a ORB% and DRB% both ranked 6th in the league. That tells me these guys are motivated and are playing hard. They will need a top effort tonight against an even better rebounding team in the Bulls ranked 1st in ORB% and 5th in DRB%. The Bulls are one of the best defensive teams in the league and with 2 days off, I expect their top defensive effort tonight. This is especially true as Thibs has had 2 days to game-plan for Irving, who he gave great praise to when he said he is a "phenomenal" player. Thibs has only said that about Rose in the past and I know he has a high opinion of Irving. Consequently, I am very confident that he has a devised a defensive scheme to stop a rather potent Cavs offense. I have been backing the Cavs with success on both the over and side this season and this will be the first time I play a Cavs under. However, I think this is a great spot as both teams will be hyped and I just don't see the Bulls fringe players shooting out of this world two games in a row. I am a bit concerned about the pace of the game because the Cavs like to run and the Bulls will run when Watson is at the point. However, I think we see the game slow down considerably in the 2h and especially in the 4th quarter. The refs are not the best with Stafford, Blair and Palmer, but I don't think it matters tonight. Both defenses are top 6 in the league in OFT/FGA, so they don't give up a lot of fouls. I have this game set at 184 with Rose, so whatever adjustment you would make for his absence will provide for more value on the under. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Lakers (+4) 1x (Locked)

I've hemmed and hawed over this one all day, but when I saw the steam start to hit and drop it to +3.5, I jumped on it and will take a shot on the Lakers despite the fatigue spot. Because they are playing b2b, but had 2 days of rest before, I think they should be as fresh as the Magic who are on a 3 in 4 stretch and played OT a day ago. The loss of Hedo will hurt the Magic as he has been playing great and I'm not sure what Richardson will bring to the table. With all the trade talk and losses, the Lakers have to motivated in this one and the big three of Kobe, Bynum and Gasol are better than what the Magic can offer. The stats show that the Lakers have a significant advantage in defense and I don't think the Magic will be in sync offensively because of the injury situation. I think this should be a last minute type game where the last team with the ball wins. I have the Lakers at +3, so I probably should have jumped at +4.5 early but I will run with the +4. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Lakers for 1x. Good luck.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

bulls under is gone . with you on LA

[Love The Action]

Wow, the shooting percentage for both the Bulls and Cavs are off the charts over the last 6 minutes of this 1st quarter. If they keep this up, we are screwed, but I don't think they can do it. We need a couple 40 point quarters though.

[Love The Action]

bulls under is gone . with you on LA

It's the 1st quarter

Come on....you gotta get used to these scoring swings when playing totals. You can have a 60 point 1st quarter, two quarters at 45 and then a 30 point 4th quarter and the under cashes. You just never know in the NBA so if you are going to get all riled up in the 1st quarter you will never make it through a season. Just let the game play out.

[WalkingLuckCharm]

hmm hard to come back from a 60 point quarter but I guess we have all seen worse~

[Love The Action]

Might have one more play in the late game. Anyone have confirmation on CP3?

[Love The Action]

hmm hard to come back from a 60 point quarter but I guess we have all seen worse~

What about last Sunday when we had a 60 point quarter between the Spurs and Suns and still lost the over by 3 points? You just never know....

[jas19illini]

Man, apparently the Bulls dont know how to play defense without D Rose. It seems like theyve been completely offensively-minded since he went out.

[jas19illini]

Might have one more play in the late game. Anyone have confirmation on CP3?

I got a tweet saying he is likely out. But thats as much as ive seen recently.

[absolutkaos]

Rotoworld is saying "CP3 is unlikely to play Friday"

[WalkingLuckCharm]

What about last Sunday when we had a 60 point quarter between the Spurs and Suns and still lost the over by 3 points? You just never know....

Yeah right you are.

[wguan2]

did anyone catch the second half total lines for portland/toronto and atlanta/philly?

[Love The Action]

No play on Memphis....I just couldn't pull the trigger at -5 and I wasn't about to pay -130. I do think that is a strong play though. I wish I would have been able to mode/cap that game sooner.