LTA's NBA Plays

[migz]

Good luck LTA!!

[Donnie Brasco]

I have a totally ridiculous sounding question for u LTA. If i get the worst # on a total, in the opposite direction of the move, is that the same as getting the best # the other way? Same for fave and dog?

[Luv2Play2]

yes

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/5/2012

Play #1

Lakers/Trail Blazers under (190) 1x (Locked)

I think the whole world loves the over in this game, but we know better. The Lakers approach these types of big matchup games with a half-court defensive-minded strategy because they know they cannot run and gun with people anymore. In their last game, they shot over 50% which was the first break-out performance of the season for Kobe. I expect a regression today going against Portland's 6th rated defense in DEFF. Even though Portland is playing a very fast PACE this season, currently ranked in the top 5 of the league, I think both teams will be happy to settle into a half-court defensive mindset and slow this one down. Both teams are coming in off of 1 days rest and will have their defensive legs under them. The Lakers are not playing great offensive basketball, but with Bynum clogging up the lane, they are playing superb defensive basketball which has kept them in all of their games. The refs are Mccutchon, Tiven and Fitzgerald. Tiven and Fitzgerald are younger refs without a ton of data, but Tiven does seem to lean over. Still, McCutchon is a reliable under guy and the crew chief so I am not overly concerned about tonight's refs. Last season, we had two early season games set in the low 190's and the two late season games set between 184 and 186. The early games went over and the late season games stayed under. In this case, Pinny opened at 191.5 and was quickly hit with under money driving down the number to the 190-189.5 range despite 75% of all wagers coming in on the under. Plus, this game had a nice amount of volume overnight getting over 2,000 wagers so I think this line movement is reliable RLM. I am taking a little bit of risk that over money knocks this one back up to the 191 range where I want it, but I am willing to take that risk because I don't think it happens. I think 190 will end up beating a closing number that ends around 188. I have this game set at 187 and we're getting 3 points of value. I think we see a slower pace from Portland tonight and both teams playing solid defenses. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Tonights card is final at the sole play above. We got a great number that is +ev so no need to add any plays that are not as strong. Im heading home from work now. Good luck tonight gentlemen.

[SlickRick1382]

LTA

Question

Lebron and Wade are both out for the game against the Hawks. Books have +-4 with the hawks giving yet on the Team Totals it has O/U 94.5 for Miami and O/U 93 for the Hawks

Thoughts?

Why shouldn't I pound the Under on the Heat without both James and Wade? or the Over on the Hawks or why would the totals not get adjusted?

[absolutkaos]

Tonights card is final at the sole play above. We got a great number that is +ev so no need to add any plays that are not as strong. Im heading home from work now. Good luck tonight gentlemen.

Thanks LTA. GL tonight.

[Donnie Brasco]

Thought u

[Donnie Brasco]

Sorry wrong forum with that last post

[Love The Action]

LTA

Question

Lebron and Wade are both out for the game against the Hawks. Books have +-4 with the hawks giving yet on the Team Totals it has O/U 94.5 for Miami and O/U 93 for the Hawks

Thoughts?

Why shouldn't I pound the Under on the Heat without both James and Wade? or the Over on the Hawks or why would the totals not get adjusted?

Sorry, I was on the road...

[Love The Action]

Man, as soon as it 184, I knew I should have shot for the middle. Damn...58 points in the 1st quarter.

[Love The Action]

Hopefully, the old "high scoring first quarter = game under" theory proves true tonight...

[No coincidences]

Hopefully, the old "high scoring first quarter = game under" theory proves true tonight...

[Love The Action]

Can't believe both teams shot 50% tonight....tough one to lose. Jamal Crawford just killed us...the bum.

Regardless, if you understand this business at all, you would know this was actually one of my best plays of the season. Anytime you bet an under at 190 and it closes at 184, that is an incredibly profitable wager over a large sample size. If you want to be rich, beat the closing number by 6 points consistently is the way to do it.

[GChild]

Good thing we didn't bet the bucks!

[BigBurk]

Tough luck on missing the under indeed.. Speaking for myself though I'm glad I made the call to skip op the total and play the spread.

You are completely right though with your comment about beating the closer with 6pts.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/5/2012 Recap

0 - 1 = -1.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

20 - 15 = +4.85x

We put this Lakers/Trail Blazers game in our rear view mirror and move on. Big NBA card for Friday. Can the Blazers shoot over 50% again....hmmm....

[Bic]

Sorry mate, I missed your play, when I saw the line hit 185 I thought about your post and went the over. Get Em tomorrow

[alamo]

Can't believe both teams shot 50% tonight....tough one to lose. Jamal Crawford just killed us...the bum. Regardless, if you understand this business at all, you would know this was actually one of my best plays of the season. Anytime you bet an under at 190 and it closes at 184, that is an incredibly profitable wager over a large sample size. If you want to be rich, beat the closing number by 6 points consistently is the way to do it.

Without a doubt the right pick LT

Lakers were horrendous tonight especially from downtown (0/11). The Blazers just had one of those lights out nights. As a matter of interest (Its late now but could be discussed tomorrow folks) what are peoples thoughts on when a line moves by more than 5+pts. Do you guys ever consider maybe going back the other way as the books have possibly over adjusted. Anyone got stats on how often these hit ?

I kept away from the total myself and played the Fakers which was bad. I got lucky earlier with a play on the Kings with their miraculous comeback so wont complain.

On with the grind tomorrow that is the NBA.

[brucethebear]

Tough luck on missing the under indeed.. Speaking for myself though I'm glad I made the call to skip op the total and play the spread.

+1.

When it fell to what LTA had it capped at, it was instantly a no play.

[EvilBettor]

Without a doubt the right pick LT

Lakers were horrendous tonight especially from downtown (0/11). The Blazers just had one of those lights out nights. As a matter of interest (Its late now but could be discussed tomorrow folks) what are peoples thoughts on when a line moves by more than 5+pts. Do you guys ever consider maybe going back the other way as the books have possibly over adjusted. Anyone got stats on how often these hit ?

I kept away from the total myself and played the Fakers which was bad. I got lucky earlier with a play on the Kings with their miraculous comeback so wont complain.

On with the grind tomorrow that is the NBA.

I originally bought the over 190 with 0.5u. Then, I felt like I made a stupid move buying at the open/high, while it dropped 5 points to 185. I debated buying again or just letting it ride. I decided to buy down another 1u (over 184) as a security blanket feeling that it will still go over. Both hit for me. I would have been happy with my over 184 only. So far, buying when it goes too far (steam) has been successful, but maybe I've just been lucky.

[MrXYZ]

İ teased the over 176.5 at crap odds for this game, thought it was a no brainer at that number & it went my way this time. Had İ gotten the under at LTA's opener & on the right side of such a line move would've had every expectation of cashing. it.Sorry about the tough beat & good luck with Friday's plays.

[Love The Action]

I'm glad some of you guys made some money last night....my turn tonight

[Trivial]

I'm glad some of you guys made some money last night....my turn tonight

Indeed. I am down on the year with NBA as I missed your good nights. :-)

Onto better times tinight.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, do you like the Over in OKC tonight ? I think this might be a good value at 205.

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA, do you like the Over in OKC tonight ? I think this might be a good value at 205.

I don't see any value at that number. A few days ago, Houston and the Clippers opened up at 201.5 and closed at 206. This game is opened at 205.5. The books clearly made an adjustment. I have this game set at 206, so I really don't see the value here. Good luck if you play it though

[Love The Action]

what are peoples thoughts on when a line moves by more than 5+pts. Do you guys ever consider maybe going back the other way as the books have possibly over adjusted. Anyone got stats on how often these hit ?
.

Sure Alamo, pros do this every day. This is actually the best way to make money in sports investing. Arbitrage or arbing is where you simply shoot for the middles or ML line moves where you have no risk and ensured profit.

For example, a baseball ML opens at -110/+120 and you know the dog is going to get hit hard. You bet the dog early and when the dogs price drops to even money, then you bet the favorite. In such a case, you are ensured 20 cents profit no matter what.

The problem with arbing is that you need to have the BR to make max wagers and you need to have about 20 books to be through in order to ensure yourself the ability to get the best number.

I thought long and hard about putting a 0.50x on the over at 184 last night. However, I generally just stick with my original wager because I don't like going against my original instincts. That is usually a regretful result when I do. In addition, all of the early and late money was on the under so there was no line movement to support a middle play. However, when you have a six point line move like that, you definitely need to consider a shot at a middle.

Good luck.

[B1AZE]

Sure Alamo, pros do this every day. This is actually the best way to make money in sports investing. Arbitrage or arbing is where you simply shoot for the middles or ML line moves where you have no risk and ensured profit.

For example, a baseball ML opens at -110/+120 and you know the dog is going to get hit hard. You bet the dog early and when the dogs price drops to even money, then you bet the favorite. In such a case, you are ensured 20 cents profit no matter what.

The problem with arbing is that you need to have the BR to make max wagers and you need to have about 20 books to be through in order to ensure yourself the ability to get the best number.

I thought long and hard about putting a 0.50x on the over at 184 last night. However, I generally just stick with my original wager because I don't like going against my original instincts. That is usually a regretful result when I do. In addition, all of the early and late money was on the under so there was no line movement to support a middle play. However, when you have a six point line move like that, you definitely need to consider a shot at a middle.

Good luck.

Posted the Under myself and usually I would pull the trigger on the Over 184 after the total moving 7 points in a couple of hours. However, i thought i was right and the line movement supported it so i stuck with it. I also agree 100% about going against your gut/instinct. In fact, everytime i think "man that's a coin flip, i dont know" and then see someone i respect on it and then decide to pull the trigger.....it usually doesnt end well for me.

Great thread LTA!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/6/2012

Play #1

Cavaliers/Timberwolves over (198) 1x (Locked)

This one started to move, so I'm jumping it now. I should have locked it in last night but wanted to see the ref assignments first. Even though those assignments are not favorable, I still like this over play. Callahan and Mott are two of the better "under" leaning refs last season. However, before last season, they generally leaned slightly to the over. Therefore, I will take a shot and depend more on the players in this one than the expectation of a huge number of fouls. Bottom line is that both teams shot well below their average in FG%, 3pt% and FT% in their last game. The Cavs shot under 30% and the Wolves right at 40%. I expect much better shooting today and especially from the 3pt line where these two teams are top 10 in the league. Both offenses are also top 11 in OEFF, which tells me that we can expect some efficient offensive basketball today. I expect this to be a showcase for two young point guards in Rubio and Irving, both of whom had rough games in their last outting. The Wolves are still running quite a bit this year with a PACE in the top 10 and I think they set a fast pace at home tonight. As we know from the Charlotte game, the Cavs are willing to run when invited and I expect they will follow suit tonight. We also have the Pinny stopper on our side today as they have been juicing 197 at -128 all night. That is significant. I have this game set at 201, giving us a full 3 points in value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[NOREGRETS]

I am in. Just grabbed it at 199.

[Love The Action]

I am in. Just grabbed it at 199.

That's a solid number...I would play this game at that number. GL

[danller]

Any opinions on Thunder tonight?

[NOREGRETS]

I am in. Just grabbed it at 199.

$hit just dropped to 198. I put a little more on it. Fingers crossed. Let's hit this $hit!!

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, thanks for your pick. Took the O198 at -105. Do you have a lean in the Jazz game ?

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/6/2012

Play #1

Cavaliers/Timberwolves over (198) 1x (Locked)

This one started to move, so I'm jumping it now. I should have locked it in last night but wanted to see the ref assignments first. Even though those assignments are not favorable, I still like this over play. Callahan and Mott are two of the better "under" leaning refs last season. However, before last season, they generally leaned slightly to the over. Therefore, I will take a shot and depend more on the players in this one than the expectation of a huge number of fouls. Bottom line is that both teams shot well below their average in FG%, 3pt% and FT% in their last game. The Cavs shot under 30% and the Wolves right at 40%. I expect much better shooting today and especially from the 3pt line where these two teams are top 10 in the league. Both offenses are also top 11 in OEFF, which tells me that we can expect some efficient offensive basketball today. I expect this to be a showcase for two young point guards in Rubio and Irving, both of whom had rough games in their last outting. The Wolves are still running quite a bit this year with a PACE in the top 10 and I think they set a fast pace at home tonight. As we know from the Charlotte game, the Cavs are willing to run when invited and I expect they will follow suit tonight. We also have the Pinny stopper on our side today as they have been juicing 197 at -128 all night. That is significant. I have this game set at 201, giving us a full 3 points in value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Bulls/Magic under (182) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup, but we have two teams that play a slow PACE ranked in the bottom 10 and great defense ranked top 8 in DEFF. Both teams are efficient on offense, but Rose is banged up and I think both teams will be content to play a half court game. The refs are Mauer, Goble and Richardson. Not the best crew for an under, but not the worst either. I have this game set at 179, so we are getting 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

Play #2

Bulls/Magic under (182) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup, but we have two teams that play a slow PACE ranked in the bottom 10 and great defense ranked top 8 in DEFF. Both teams are efficient on offense, but Rose is banged up and I think both teams will be content to play a half court game. The refs are Mauer, Goble and Richardson. Not the best crew for an under, but not the worst either. I have this game set at 179, so we are getting 3 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Really like this play if I were taking totals right now.