LTA's NBA Plays

[Speedy88]

Chaching!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/6/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +1.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

23 - 16 = +6.75x

Consistency is key....onto tomorrow.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/7/2012

Play #1

Nuggets/Spurs over (198) 1x (Locked)

Although Denver is playing great defense currently ranked in the top 3 of DEFF, they also play the fastest PACE in the league. While SA doesn't run all that often, I think they will tomorrow and I also think they shoot very well at home. Although they hit over 40% from 3pt land against Dallas in their last game, they shot around 32% for the game. That's not very good and I expect better from a tired Denver defense on the 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in four days. However, Denver is young and they can handle this grind so I think they continue to keep up a fast pace, but maybe slack a little on the defensive end. I know Manu is out for the Spurs, but I'm a big Gary Neal guy and I think he is a very solid offensive player and one of the better shooters in the game right now. Between him, Parker, Jefferson, Duncan, Blair, Splitter, etc., I think we see 99 - 102 points. On the other end, there is no reason that Denver can't put up points in the same range. Last season, these teams played four times and each game was set over 209. This total opened on Pinny at 195.5 and was immediately hit with the over up to 199 and is currently getting juiced on the under. I have this game set at 202, giving us a full four points of value. At the close, I expect this number to be around 200 so I am jumping on it now regardless of refs. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[alamo]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/6/2012 Recap 3 - 1 = +1.9x NBA 2011-2012 Season 23 - 16 = +6.75x Consistency is key....onto tomorrow.

You are really nailing these games. A little luck on the Bulls game but man have you been due a break after what seemed like endless bad beats in the NCAAF \ NFL. No doubt you will continue to beat these lines as in my opinion its your niche sport. As always, thanks for your time on here.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, nice work as always What do you think about the Under in the Clippers Game ? Do you think the Spurs will win this game ? I lean Spurs - 4.

[YouHave2outs]

fade the freaking spurs for God's sake. please don't bet them tomorrow

[brucethebear]

Taken bulls -4.5. Atlanta on a b2b2b with overtime in both - bulls cruising.
This has already hit -5 at 5dimes.

Also on the Nuggs over with you LTA

[Bic]

The under in Indiana jumped out at me, thoughts?

[BigBurk]

Taken bulls -4.5. Atlanta on a b2b2b with overtime in both - bulls cruising. This has already hit -5 at 5dimes. Also on the Nuggs over with you LTA

-5½ right now.

[BigBurk]

The under in Indiana jumped out at me, thoughts?

Wanna share why?

My gut says this one will go over with both coming on b2b and Charlotte on away games having had totals all above 216?!

[BigBurk]

The under in Golden State seems to have more value imo.

[Redscot]

Phew....by the skin of our teeth.

Was never in doubt . Glad I bought off my Portland over 192 1/2 too, there's a case where I would have beat the closer by 4 points and come up on the wrong end. Keep up the great work my man.

[pokerwhiz90]

nice keep it up and i love the bulls

[Trivial]

Glad I bought into the Wiz for +5 for the 2nd half. I missed the +6 for the game.

[absolutkaos]

Glad I bought into the Wiz for +5 for the 2nd half. I missed the +6 for the game.

did exactly the same thing...

[m3junkie]

tailing you, lta. bol!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/7/2012

Play #1

Nuggets/Spurs over (198) 1x (Locked)

Although Denver is playing great defense currently ranked in the top 3 of DEFF, they also play the fastest PACE in the league. While SA doesn't run all that often, I think they will tomorrow and I also think they shoot very well at home. Although they hit over 40% from 3pt land against Dallas in their last game, they shot around 32% for the game. That's not very good and I expect better from a tired Denver defense on the 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in four days. However, Denver is young and they can handle this grind so I think they continue to keep up a fast pace, but maybe slack a little on the defensive end. I know Manu is out for the Spurs, but I'm a big Gary Neal guy and I think he is a very solid offensive player and one of the better shooters in the game right now. Between him, Parker, Jefferson, Duncan, Blair, Splitter, etc., I think we see 99 - 102 points. On the other end, there is no reason that Denver can't put up points in the same range. Last season, these teams played four times and each game was set over 209. This total opened on Pinny at 195.5 and was immediately hit with the over up to 199 and is currently getting juiced on the under. I have this game set at 202, giving us a full four points of value. At the close, I expect this number to be around 200 so I am jumping on it now regardless of refs. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Card is final at the sole play above. I'm hanging with my little man today and missed too much line value, so I'm passing on the rest of the card. Going to take the rest of the day off and hang with my baby boy. Good luck to everyone today and hopefully we can end the day 1-0.

[Dexter]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/6/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +1.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

23 - 16 = +6.75x

Consistency is key....onto tomorrow.

great start bro....i smell a monster 50x season coming for you.

[fecgp40]

Card is final at the sole play above. I'm hanging with my little man today and missed too much line value, so I'm passing on the rest of the card. Going to take the rest of the day off and hang with my baby boy. Good luck to everyone today and hopefully we can end the day 1-0.

Enjoy the day with your son LTA. Thanks for all the plays. Good night last night. Great pull through on the Bulls/Magic game.

[pacocn]

Lta, have fun with your little man today, i will be hangin
with my little girl tomorrow, the one in the pic.

[Trivial]

Card is final at the sole play above. I'm hanging with my little man today and missed too much line value, so I'm passing on the rest of the card. Going to take the rest of the day off and hang with my baby boy. Good luck to everyone today and hopefully we can end the day 1-0.

Now that is a winning play my man. You don't need luck for that. Hope it was a great day.

[pacocn]

Lta, can you make it look more difficult?

[Dave88]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/7/2012

Play #1

Nuggets/Spurs over (198) 1x (Locked)

Although Denver is playing great defense currently ranked in the top 3 of DEFF, they also play the fastest PACE in the league. While SA doesn't run all that often, I think they will tomorrow and I also think they shoot very well at home. Although they hit over 40% from 3pt land against Dallas in their last game, they shot around 32% for the game. That's not very good and I expect better from a tired Denver defense on the 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in four days. However, Denver is young and they can handle this grind so I think they continue to keep up a fast pace, but maybe slack a little on the defensive end. I know Manu is out for the Spurs, but I'm a big Gary Neal guy and I think he is a very solid offensive player and one of the better shooters in the game right now. Between him, Parker, Jefferson, Duncan, Blair, Splitter, etc., I think we see 99 - 102 points. On the other end, there is no reason that Denver can't put up points in the same range. Last season, these teams played four times and each game was set over 209. This total opened on Pinny at 195.5 and was immediately hit with the over up to 199 and is currently getting juiced on the under. I have this game set at 202, giving us a full four points of value. At the close, I expect this number to be around 200 so I am jumping on it now regardless of refs. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Nice call LTA, no sweatin out this one, it might reach 250!

cheers.

[jackdean33]

Good Job LT, i tailed you on that one unfortunately lost out on backing Chicago -4.5 but won back on Miami -7.5 and OKC ML.

[GChild]

Easy win big guy boooooooom

[horseface2721]

Great picks LTA. Solid.

[Goat Milk]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/7/2012

Play #1

Nuggets/Spurs over (198) 1x (Locked)

Although Denver is playing great defense currently ranked in the top 3 of DEFF, they also play the fastest PACE in the league. While SA doesn't run all that often, I think they will tomorrow and I also think they shoot very well at home. Although they hit over 40% from 3pt land against Dallas in their last game, they shot around 32% for the game. That's not very good and I expect better from a tired Denver defense on the 2nd of a b2b and 3rd game in four days. However, Denver is young and they can handle this grind so I think they continue to keep up a fast pace, but maybe slack a little on the defensive end. I know Manu is out for the Spurs, but I'm a big Gary Neal guy and I think he is a very solid offensive player and one of the better shooters in the game right now. Between him, Parker, Jefferson, Duncan, Blair, Splitter, etc., I think we see 99 - 102 points. On the other end, there is no reason that Denver can't put up points in the same range. Last season, these teams played four times and each game was set over 209. This total opened on Pinny at 195.5 and was immediately hit with the over up to 199 and is currently getting juiced on the under. I have this game set at 202, giving us a full four points of value. At the close, I expect this number to be around 200 so I am jumping on it now regardless of refs. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

the more i read your posts it seems like you understand this game well. did you play any futures before the season started?

[Moneyliner7]

Wrong thread

Sorry lta

[Moneyliner7]

Damn lta sorry man.. I posted these results in ur thread sorry

[Love The Action]

Lta, can you make it look more difficult?

Nice call LTA, no sweatin out this one, it might reach 250!

cheers.

Good Job LT, i tailed you on that one unfortunately lost out on backing Chicago -4.5 but won back on Miami -7.5 and OKC ML.

Great picks LTA. Solid.

the more i read your posts it seems like you understand this game well. did you play any futures before the season started?

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/7/2012 Recap

1 - 0 = +1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

24 - 16 = +7.75x

Back to the grind....

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/8/2012

Play #1

Magic/Kings over (191) 1x (Locked)

Here is a game set up perfectly for an over play. I might add a little bit more to this one once I see the ref assignments in the morning. Bottom line is that Orlando is due for a big time offensive performance after not playing particularly well on offense against the Bulls and Sacramento is coming off a game where they shot 40% but still hit for over 100 points against another top defensive team in the Bucks because of the Kings' fast pace. I think both teams play great offensive games on Sunday. If you look at the numbers, you will see a Sacramento team which is ranked 8th in the league in PACE and 6th in possession per game on offense, but bottom 5-10 in the league in most defensive categories from DEFF to Opponent Effective FG%, Opponent True Shooting %, Opponent Shooting % and Opponent 2 point Shooting %. Therefore, these stats tell us that Sacramento gives up way too many easy baskets in the paint. Against Orlando, they will be destroyed in the paint by Howard and I suspect this will lead to much faster pace of the game because Orlando will feed Howard early which will lead to easy baskets early in the shot clock and more possessions for each team. Orlando leads the league with 29% percent of points from three pointers leading to an average of 27 points per game from beyond the arc. This is the type of inside-outside game that Sacramento cannot handle. After such a poor performance against the Bulls at home, I suspect we see an Orlando team come out pretty motivated to have a great offensive game. Last season, these teams played twice, going over posted totals of 205 and 206. This season, Pinny opened at 190.5 and was immediately hit with over money because they are way undervaluing the over in this game. The books are making a 15 point adjustment in the total between last season and this season, despite both teams having almost identical rosters. I suspect tomorrow we see an output similar to last season's games as the books are way undervaluing the over in this game. I would not be surprised to see Orlando's biggest output in points so far this season come in the game against the Kings. With or without Westphal, it is clear the Kings players have no interest in playing defense. When you go against the inside-outside game of Orlando, you need to be able to play great three point defense while playing tough down low. The Kings can't do either and I suspect we see a fast paced game with high shooting percentages and game that flies over the posted total. I have this game set at 196.5 giving us over 5 points of variance between my model and the books' line; that is just way too much value in this game to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Speedy88]

Nice job on today, wish I tailed you on Nugs/Spurs over. BTW, I approve of the avatar, just started watching Breaking Bad a month ago and just finished season 4 the other night.
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[aussieH]

Great write up. Just started breaking bad as well and almost through season 5. Tell me season 5 is in the making please

Also what is your factors that shifts up a unit on a play. This reads as a two unit play.

[Redscot]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/8/2012

Play #1

Magic/Kings over (191) 1x (Locked)

Here is a game set up perfectly for an over play. I might add a little bit more to this one once I see the ref assignments in the morning. Bottom line is that Orlando is due for a big time offensive performance after not playing particularly well on offense against the Bulls and Sacramento is coming off a game where they shot 40% but still hit for over 100 points against another top defensive team in the Bucks because of the Kings' fast pace. I think both teams play great offensive games on Sunday. If you look at the numbers, you will see a Sacramento team which is ranked 8th in the league in PACE and 6th in possession per game on offense, but bottom 5-10 in the league in most defensive categories from DEFF to Opponent Effective FG%, Opponent True Shooting %, Opponent Shooting % and Opponent 2 point Shooting %. Therefore, these stats tell us that Sacramento gives up way too many easy baskets in the paint. Against Orlando, they will be destroyed in the paint by Howard and I suspect this will lead to much faster pace of the game because Orlando will feed Howard early which will lead to easy baskets early in the shot clock and more possessions for each team. Orlando leads the league with 29% percent of points from three pointers leading to an average of 27 points per game from beyond the arc. This is the type of inside-outside game that Sacramento cannot handle. After such a poor performance against the Bulls at home, I suspect we see an Orlando team come out pretty motivated to have a great offensive game. Last season, these teams played twice, going over posted totals of 205 and 206. This season, Pinny opened at 190.5 and was immediately hit with over money because they are way undervaluing the over in this game. The books are making a 15 point adjustment in the total between last season and this season, despite both teams having almost identical rosters. I suspect tomorrow we see an output similar to last season's games as the books are way undervaluing the over in this game. I would not be surprised to see Orlando's biggest output in points so far this season come in the game against the Kings. With or without Westphal, it is clear the Kings players have no interest in playing defense. When you go against the inside-outside game of Orlando, you need to be able to play great three point defense while playing tough down low. The Kings can't do either and I suspect we see a fast paced game with high shooting percentages and game that flies over the posted total. I have this game set at 196.5 giving us over 5 points of variance between my model and the books' line; that is just way too much value in this game to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Nice call last night . Totally agree on this game and have it at 189 1/2. Thinking about hitting it for X2.