LTA's NBA Plays

[fecgp40]

LTA, what do you think about Lakers - 7.5? Or should I buy the half point? Thanks as always for your insight.

[Love The Action]

LTA, what do you think about Lakers - 7.5? Or should I buy the half point? Thanks as always for your insight.

I'm playing the game at -7. If you also like that play as well, but you can't get -7, then you need to either (1) wait to see if the line drops back down to -7 (looks like a possibility as Pinny is juicing Memphis pretty heavy at +7.5), (2) buy the hook or (3) play it at -7.5.

It's your money, so only you can make that decision. If it was my money, I would wait it out and if I see the juice shift at -7.5 to heavy on the Lakers, then I would probably buy down to -7 because of it's importance.

Again, however, I don't like answering these types of questions because it's your money. Good luck in whatever you choose.

[celtics3388]

It's unprecedented in that they never tried squeeze this many games into 4 months. However, I agree with your assessment that scoring will be down. I love the unders

Good luck Kob!

LTA, you've been dead on with the unders hitting ~60% so far. But I see you've been on a few overs lately. Do you still see the unders as being more profitable this year or do you think the books have caught up? It seems to me like they are still underestimating just how down scoring is this year.

[Speedy88]

LTA, you've been dead on with the unders hitting ~60% so far. But I see you've been on a few overs lately. Do you still see the unders as being more profitable this year or do you think the books have caught up? It seems to me like they are still underestimating just how down scoring is this year.

Agreed. I'm not a totals guru like LTA, but every night it seems like the Unders are hitting at a VERY high rate. I think the other day all but one or two games went under.

[BigBurk]

Well, believe it or not LTA, but I am with you on the Lakers and Portland plays My calculations had the same outcomes as yours apparently concerning these two plays.

Just couldn't pull the trigger on Orlando, just not sure enough. BOL tonight!

[Love The Action]

LTA, you've been dead on with the unders hitting ~60% so far. But I see you've been on a few overs lately. Do you still see the unders as being more profitable this year or do you think the books have caught up? It seems to me like they are still underestimating just how down scoring is this year.

Books are clearly overvaluing the unders, but many keep on hitting regardless. I have played a few more unders than overs, but I am playing more overs than last season because there is way more value on overs in general right now.

Just take the Orlando/Kings game today as an example. As I stated in my writeup, this matchup elicited totals of 205 and 206 last season. However, in this game, Pinny opened this game at 190.5 despite most of both rosters being the same. That is a huge adjustment based primarily on the early season under trend as a result of the lockout and shortened preseason.

At the end of the day, however, the under trend should really not factor into your capping. If you like the over, take the over. If you like the under, take the under. Each game should be treated independently of every other game.

By the end of the season, the O/U records will even out. However, most NBA season end up with a few more unders than overs anyway.

[Love The Action]

Well, believe it or not LTA, but I am with you on the Lakers and Portland plays My calculations had the same outcomes as yours apparently concerning these two plays.

Just couldn't pull the trigger on Orlando, just not sure enough. BOL tonight!

Good luck buddy

[GChild]

Keep up the great work lets get them tonight!

[Love The Action]

Keep up the great work lets get them tonight!

Just for you....no unders today

[riffraff24]

Play #3 Lakers (-7) 1x (Locked) 2 and 7 are the most important key numbers in the NBA. This game opened at -7 at Pinny and was immediately hit with Laker money raising the Pinny price to -114 and they just moved to -7.5 recently. As soon as I saw Pinny add the hook, I jumped on -7 which remains available at Legends and Betonline, among a few other outlets. Had this one opened at -6.5 under the key number of 7, I might have laid off this play. However, the opener at -7 plus the move to -7.5 at Pinny, gives me the confidence to play the heavy public favorite in this game. To me, this cover is all about the front court of the Lakers dominating the weakened front court of the Grizzlies who are without Z-Bo for 6-8 weeks. With only Marc Gasol as a true front court threat for the Grizzlies, I think Marc's brother Pau Gasol and especially Bynum have a field day tonight at home. This truly is a matchup nightmare for the Grizzlies because the younger Gasol cannot stop both his older brother plus a dominate Bynum. Artest (or MWP) generally has had some success stopping Rudy Gay and even if Gay has a big day, I expect Kobe's production to offset anything they get off of Gay. Based on the number, the Lakers have the far better OEFF and DEFF rankings, as well as a better half court game. Even though the younger Grizzlies might be more explosive, they are missing their best player and inspirational leader without Randolph. I have this game set at (-8.5) giving us about 1.5 points of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Lakers for 1x. Good luck.

Glad you're on my Lakers tonight LTA! i'll be at the game GL!

[GChild]

Just for you....no unders today

Ha...thanks buddy

[horseface2721]

Let's hit this ORL over!

[fecgp40]

I'm playing the game at -7. If you also like that play as well, but you can't get -7, then you need to either (1) wait to see if the line drops back down to -7 (looks like a possibility as Pinny is juicing Memphis pretty heavy at +7.5), (2) buy the hook or (3) play it at -7.5. It's your money, so only you can make that decision. If it was my money, I would wait it out and if I see the juice shift at -7.5 to heavy on the Lakers, then I would probably buy down to -7 because of it's importance. Again, however, I don't like answering these types of questions because it's your money. Good luck in whatever you choose.

Thanks a lot for your input LTA. You always have time to explain stuff to us novices. GL tonight.

[Love The Action]

Glad you're on my Lakers tonight LTA! i'll be at the game GL!

Bring us home a winner!

[Love The Action]

Just an FYI, for those of you that follow my NCAAF plays, I decided to shoot for the middle in that Arkansas State/NIU game.

As you know, I originally bought the over at 62 a few weeks ago for 1x. Tonight, I just bought the under at 67, which gives us 2x in profit if the game ends on 63, 64, 65 or 66 and a 1x win if it ends on 62 or 67. With the strength of Arkansas State's defense and the length of layoff possibly leading to some rusty offense, I thought this was the smart play. Good luck.

[horseface2721]

Right on pace LTA!

[No coincidences]

Ho-hum -- another NBA total that moved 7 points and is now set up perfectly for a middle.

Hope you are on the "right" side LTA.

[Luv2Play2]

i saw 2hf line 95 opening total 191

[Love The Action]

Ho-hum -- another NBA total that moved 7 points and is now set up perfectly for a middle.

Hope you are on the "right" side LTA.

OK, I'll bite.

Why would Vegas or the books "fix" the game so it ends in a middle and they have to pay off both sides?

If it's not the books, who is fixing these games?

How are they hiding the unusual betting patterns from the betting authorities?

How are they bribing the athletes to go along with the fix? Is it all the athletes or some of the athletes? How do they choose which athletes?

How do they keep it all quiet from the TMZ's of the world? Wouldn't one of the athlete's "baby mama's" or "posse" leak the information so they can make some money off of the fix as well?

You're paranoia about this stuff is borderline obsessive at times. Out of 2,000 games a season, it makes perfect sense that a certain percentage of those games end at the number or middle the opener/closer or otherwise end right around the number. It's just the law of inevitability.

No matter what happens to tonight, I can go to bed 99% sure that there was no "fix" on any NBA game tonight. The sad part is that you can't.

You know you're my boy, but this stuff is just silly. Forget about these conspiracy theories as the cause of some bad losses on totals, just accept those losses and move on.

That would be best for your mental health

Good luck bud, hope you hit your plays tonight.

[No coincidences]

OK, I'll bite.

Why would Vegas or the books "fix" the game so it ends in a middle and they have to pay off both sides?

If it's not the books, who is fixing these games?

How are they hiding the unusual betting patterns from the betting authorities?

How are they bribing the athletes to go along with the fix? Is it all the athletes or some of the athletes? How do they choose which athletes?

How do they keep it all quiet from the TMZ's of the world? Wouldn't one of the athlete's "baby mama's" or "posse" leak the information so they can make some money off of the fix as well?

You're paranoia about this stuff is borderline obsessive at times. Out of 2,000 games a season, it makes perfect sense that a certain percentage of those games end at the number or middle the opener/closer or otherwise end right around the number. It's just the law of inevitability.

No matter what happens to tonight, I can go to bed 99% sure that there was no "fix" on any NBA game tonight. The sad part is that you can't.

You know you're my boy, but this stuff is just silly. Forget about these conspiracy theories as the cause of some bad losses on totals, just accept those losses and move on.

That would be best for your mental health

Good luck bud, hope you hit your plays tonight.

Can I prove that a particular game is "fixed"? Of course not. But to pull the wool over my eyes and pretend everything is always on the level given the numerous point shaving scandals that the game of basketball has produced -- both college and pro -- since basically the beginning of time and pretend it just doesn't happen in today's game would be incredibly naive LTA.

I have no bet on this game, just like I had no bet on the GS/LAL total the other day. Hope you hit it.

[Love The Action]

Can I prove that a particular game is "fixed"? Of course not. But to pull the wool over my eyes and pretend everything is always on the level given the numerous point shaving scandals that the game of basketball has produced -- both college and pro -- since basically the beginning of time and pretend it just doesn't happen in today's game would be incredibly naive LTA.

I have no bet on this game, just like I had no bet on the GS/LAL total the other day. Hope you hit it.

Thanks for the well wishes. Yeah, I don't discount the possibility that there might be a very rare "fixed" (whatever that means) games.

However, to say it happens on a daily, weekly, monthly or even seasonal basis is naieve...or just conspiracy theory garbage. You read it on here every day with people saying that every bad beat is from a "fix." Yet, no one can who claims those games are fixed can answer just one of the questions I asked.

Yes, a fix can happen. Does it happen as much as you or others think? I would answer that with an emphatic no.

[BobbyD914]

The 4th quarter in this magic game is f'ing brutal

[Love The Action]

The 4th quarter in this magic game is f'ing brutal

It's fixed

[GChild]

Boom over refs had the over

[riffraff24]

Took the over at 195 and still hit...Thanks LTA!! Lets get that Lakers cover!

[Love The Action]

Boom over refs had the over

[horseface2721]

Cover !

[ULTRANORTH]

boooooooooom overs!!!....i took 195.5 too hahaha

[BobbyD914]

It's fixed

haha...exactly...thanks for the pick with you on lakers as well...good luck

[Trivial]

Nicely done LTA on Orlando. Thank you.

[fecgp40]

Nice hit on Orlando LTA. Let's get the Lakers and the Blazers over. 5 dimes wouldn't let me buy a half point so I broke down and took the Lakers - 7.5 GL guys.

[mikea33]

keep it coming

[alamo]

Ho-hum -- another NBA total that moved 7 points and is now set up perfectly for a middle. Hope you are on the "right" side LTA.

Oh dear...Looks like the players fcked up the middle by scoring 12pts in the last 90secs when they had the perfect opportunity to middle it for themselves.

[I am Happy]

Fixed

[Love The Action]

The points you mention above are exactly why I lean Thunder. First, fatigue spots affect older teams like the Spurs much more detrimentally than a younger team like the Thunder. Second, OKC is playing with revenge because the Spurs beat them like a rented mule last season. I suspect this is a game OKC has had circled on their schedule for awhile now. Finally, the Spurs are coming off a big win last night when they had a huge shooting night by hitting over 50% of their shots. I don't see that happening today, especially with the Spurs missing Ginobli and playing on the road. To me, the play is OKC or pass.

I might play OKC, but I missed the -5.5

Really regret not pulling the trigger on this one. I got distracted and forgot about it and when I went to go check out the late number, the game had started and I was too late