LTA, what do you think about Lakers - 7.5? Or should I buy the half point? Thanks as always for your insight.
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I'm playing the game at -7. If you also like that play as well, but you can't get -7, then you need to either (1) wait to see if the line drops back down to -7 (looks like a possibility as Pinny is juicing Memphis pretty heavy at +7.5), (2) buy the hook or (3) play it at -7.5.
It's your money, so only you can make that decision. If it was my money, I would wait it out and if I see the juice shift at -7.5 to heavy on the Lakers, then I would probably buy down to -7 because of it's importance.
Again, however, I don't like answering these types of questions because it's your money. Good luck in whatever you choose.
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LTA, you've been dead on with the unders hitting ~60% so far. But I see you've been on a few overs lately. Do you still see the unders as being more profitable this year or do you think the books have caught up? It seems to me like they are still underestimating just how down scoring is this year.Comment -
Well, believe it or not LTA, but I am with you on the Lakers and Portland plays
My calculations had the same outcomes as yours apparently concerning these two plays.
Just couldn't pull the trigger on Orlando, just not sure enough. BOL tonight!Comment -
Books are clearly overvaluing the unders, but many keep on hitting regardless. I have played a few more unders than overs, but I am playing more overs than last season because there is way more value on overs in general right now.
Just take the Orlando/Kings game today as an example. As I stated in my writeup, this matchup elicited totals of 205 and 206 last season. However, in this game, Pinny opened this game at 190.5 despite most of both rosters being the same. That is a huge adjustment based primarily on the early season under trend as a result of the lockout and shortened preseason.
At the end of the day, however, the under trend should really not factor into your capping. If you like the over, take the over. If you like the under, take the under. Each game should be treated independently of every other game.
By the end of the season, the O/U records will even out. However, most NBA season end up with a few more unders than overs anyway.Comment -
Keep up the great work lets get them tonight!Comment -
Let's hit this ORL over!Comment -
Thanks a lot for your input LTA. You always have time to explain stuff to us novices. GL tonight.I'm playing the game at -7. If you also like that play as well, but you can't get -7, then you need to either (1) wait to see if the line drops back down to -7 (looks like a possibility as Pinny is juicing Memphis pretty heavy at +7.5), (2) buy the hook or (3) play it at -7.5. It's your money, so only you can make that decision. If it was my money, I would wait it out and if I see the juice shift at -7.5 to heavy on the Lakers, then I would probably buy down to -7 because of it's importance. Again, however, I don't like answering these types of questions because it's your money. Good luck in whatever you choose.
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Just an FYI, for those of you that follow my NCAAF plays, I decided to shoot for the middle in that Arkansas State/NIU game.
As you know, I originally bought the over at 62 a few weeks ago for 1x. Tonight, I just bought the under at 67, which gives us 2x in profit if the game ends on 63, 64, 65 or 66 and a 1x win if it ends on 62 or 67. With the strength of Arkansas State's defense and the length of layoff possibly leading to some rusty offense, I thought this was the smart play. Good luck.Comment -
Right on pace LTA!Comment -
Ho-hum -- another NBA total that moved 7 points and is now set up perfectly for a middle.
Hope you are on the "right" side LTA.Comment -
i saw 2hf line 95 opening total 191Comment -
OK, I'll bite.
Why would Vegas or the books "fix" the game so it ends in a middle and they have to pay off both sides?
If it's not the books, who is fixing these games?
How are they hiding the unusual betting patterns from the betting authorities?
How are they bribing the athletes to go along with the fix? Is it all the athletes or some of the athletes? How do they choose which athletes?
How do they keep it all quiet from the TMZ's of the world? Wouldn't one of the athlete's "baby mama's" or "posse" leak the information so they can make some money off of the fix as well?
You're paranoia about this stuff is borderline obsessive at times. Out of 2,000 games a season, it makes perfect sense that a certain percentage of those games end at the number or middle the opener/closer or otherwise end right around the number. It's just the law of inevitability.
No matter what happens to tonight, I can go to bed 99% sure that there was no "fix" on any NBA game tonight. The sad part is that you can't.
You know you're my boy, but this stuff is just silly. Forget about these conspiracy theories as the cause of some bad losses on totals, just accept those losses and move on.
That would be best for your mental health
Good luck bud, hope you hit your plays tonight.
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Can I prove that a particular game is "fixed"? Of course not. But to pull the wool over my eyes and pretend everything is always on the level given the numerous point shaving scandals that the game of basketball has produced -- both college and pro -- since basically the beginning of time and pretend it just doesn't happen in today's game would be incredibly naive LTA.OK, I'll bite.
Why would Vegas or the books "fix" the game so it ends in a middle and they have to pay off both sides?
If it's not the books, who is fixing these games?
How are they hiding the unusual betting patterns from the betting authorities?
How are they bribing the athletes to go along with the fix? Is it all the athletes or some of the athletes? How do they choose which athletes?
How do they keep it all quiet from the TMZ's of the world? Wouldn't one of the athlete's "baby mama's" or "posse" leak the information so they can make some money off of the fix as well?
You're paranoia about this stuff is borderline obsessive at times. Out of 2,000 games a season, it makes perfect sense that a certain percentage of those games end at the number or middle the opener/closer or otherwise end right around the number. It's just the law of inevitability.
No matter what happens to tonight, I can go to bed 99% sure that there was no "fix" on any NBA game tonight. The sad part is that you can't.
You know you're my boy, but this stuff is just silly. Forget about these conspiracy theories as the cause of some bad losses on totals, just accept those losses and move on.
That would be best for your mental health
Good luck bud, hope you hit your plays tonight.
I have no bet on this game, just like I had no bet on the GS/LAL total the other day. Hope you hit it.Comment -
Thanks for the well wishes. Yeah, I don't discount the possibility that there might be a very rare "fixed" (whatever that means) games.
However, to say it happens on a daily, weekly, monthly or even seasonal basis is naieve...or just conspiracy theory garbage. You read it on here every day with people saying that every bad beat is from a "fix." Yet, no one can who claims those games are fixed can answer just one of the questions I asked.
Yes, a fix can happen. Does it happen as much as you or others think? I would answer that with an emphatic no.Comment -
The 4th quarter in this magic game is f'ing brutalComment -
Boom over refs had the overComment -
Took the over at 195 and still hit...Thanks LTA!! Lets get that Lakers cover!Comment -
Cover !Comment -
boooooooooom overs!!!....i took 195.5 too hahahaComment -
Nicely done LTA on Orlando. Thank you.Comment -
Nice hit on Orlando LTA. Let's get the Lakers and the Blazers over. 5 dimes wouldn't let me buy a half point so I broke down and took the Lakers - 7.5 GL guys.
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keep it comingComment -
FixedComment
