LTA's NBA Plays

[IXL]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/10/2012

Play #1

Wizards (-2) 1x (Locked)

This is a bad fatigue spot for the Raptors, coming off their win today over the TWolves. The Raptors are playing their 4th in 5 games and 2nd of a b2b. The Wiz, on the other hand, have the Bulls after this game and desperately need a win. This is their best chance, with the schedule getting tougher, I expect full effort. I have the Wiz set at -2.5, but I really love this situational spot for them more than the value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Wizards for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/76'ers over (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Kings have been playing great offense since Westphal was fired, and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Even though Philly has played very solid defense, this is their 4th game in 5 nights and 2nd of a b2b and I expect fatigue to show itself on the defensive floor. Sacramento is rated 8th in PACE and I expect them to move the ball up and down the court on this tired Philly defense. On the other side, Sacramento's defense is bottom 5 in DEFF and expect Philly to hit 100 rather easily in this game. I have this total set at 202 and we are getting this at the bargain of 197.5. That is just too much value to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

thanks LTA i'm am on it. BOL

[815Sox]

I like both of those plays. Also, Spring Training isn't to far away!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/10/2012

Play #1

Wizards (-2) 1x (Locked)

This is a bad fatigue spot for the Raptors, coming off their win today over the TWolves. The Raptors are playing their 4th in 5 games and 2nd of a b2b. The Wiz, on the other hand, have the Bulls after this game and desperately need a win. This is their best chance, with the schedule getting tougher, I expect full effort. I have the Wiz set at -2.5, but I really love this situational spot for them more than the value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Wizards for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/76'ers over (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Kings have been playing great offense since Westphal was fired, and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Even though Philly has played very solid defense, this is their 4th game in 5 nights and 2nd of a b2b and I expect fatigue to show itself on the defensive floor. Sacramento is rated 8th in PACE and I expect them to move the ball up and down the court on this tired Philly defense. On the other side, Sacramento's defense is bottom 5 in DEFF and expect Philly to hit 100 rather easily in this game. I have this total set at 202 and we are getting this at the bargain of 197.5. That is just too much value to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rockets/Bobcats over (194) 1x (Locked)

Locked this one up earlier, but just able to post it now. Very busy at work so no time for full writeup or questions. We have a team in the bobcats who are top 10 in PACE against the rockets who are top 10 in OEFF. The common denominator is that both teams are in the bottom 3 of DEFF. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game with no defense. The cats are in a fatigue spot playing their 4th game in 5 days, but should perform better offensively being at home coming off two poor shooting performances. Neither team has incentive to play tough defense and I view this as streetball game with guys looking to pad their stats. I think both martin and lowry play tonight because its such an easy opponent to score against. The refs are relatively neutral with jones, kirkland and poole, but I dont expect this game to cash or not cash based on the officiating. This play is all about the fast pace, improved shooting and lack of defense. I have this game set at 199 and would play it up to 196, because of the value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Kadinni]

Lets cash the wizards tonight bro. I like them alot in this spot also.


And Ima tail you here on this over, i will be in class bored so i will be looking forward to watching a high pace game on my computer

[dredmahawkus]

I pounded wash before I knew LTA was on them! now I just upped it!

[Cup Bound]

Hello LTA....Been lurking for months and have tailed many of your plays. Thought I would finally get registered and use my first post to say I really appreciate your write-ups and the time you put into this. I can't always get the numbers you get, but when I do it's been for the most part positive. I look forward to tailing you in Baseball as well. Cheers

[GChild]

Let's get them tonight!

[ManBearPig]

Hey there LTA...long time and thought I'd say hi.

I'm starting to see some numbers and have been making some adjustments to my modeling and it looks like we're on the opposite side in this SAC game so that's a bummer, although I guess one of us wins. I've been tracking things a little differently and since New Years the numbers I'm generating have really fallen into place and this play actually falls into a fairly strong category (undefeated so far) so we'll see how long it continues. MEM/OKL o192 was also qualifier so I booked that, although it's not as strong. The books are catching up, but I'm surprised how many of my numbers have been closer than the books so far and I haven't really cashed. I'm back-testing this still so I've been hesitant to play but it looks promising.

I've seen a sharp contrast in numbers compared to last season and the books are slowly catching on (hence all the unders being money right now) I came across this article that was interesting.

So good luck to ya and I have a few other qualifiers, but I'm not sure if I'll play. I lurk but try not get into the banter around here, but I'm sure I'll chime in once in a while GL tonight bro.

[Dmil]

I pounded wash before I knew LTA was on them! now I just upped it!

CAREFUL! Not to go against LTA, but the Wizards are awful . John Wall is a cancer, still a Kid playing a man's game. Bargnani register 45min. Last nite . Wizards at home not a plus. The boo birds will be there in full force if they get off to slow start. Raptors and the O184

[dlunc3]

Blatche ruled out tonight... if they finally win a game, he will need to be a big part

[YouHave2outs]

LTA, I know you're a bulls fan. do you like a side in Bulls/Timberwolves?

[chief42]

hey dlunc, love that pic

[ManBearPig]

LTA, I know you're a bulls fan. do you like a side in Bulls/Timberwolves?

A lot of people like Minny because they're starting to catch on to this trend that the team on the 3rd of B2B2B is 6-0 ATS so far this season. Not enough to make me play it because CHI can take a dump on that trend if they want.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/10/2012

Play #1

Wizards (-2) 1x (Locked)

This is a bad fatigue spot for the Raptors, coming off their win today over the TWolves. The Raptors are playing their 4th in 5 games and 2nd of a b2b. The Wiz, on the other hand, have the Bulls after this game and desperately need a win. This is their best chance, with the schedule getting tougher, I expect full effort. I have the Wiz set at -2.5, but I really love this situational spot for them more than the value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Wizards for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/76'ers over (197.5) 1x (Locked)

The Kings have been playing great offense since Westphal was fired, and I expect more of the same on Tuesday. Even though Philly has played very solid defense, this is their 4th game in 5 nights and 2nd of a b2b and I expect fatigue to show itself on the defensive floor. Sacramento is rated 8th in PACE and I expect them to move the ball up and down the court on this tired Philly defense. On the other side, Sacramento's defense is bottom 5 in DEFF and expect Philly to hit 100 rather easily in this game. I have this total set at 202 and we are getting this at the bargain of 197.5. That is just too much value to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Rockets/Bobcats over (194) 1x (Locked)

Locked this one up earlier, but just able to post it now. Very busy at work so no time for full writeup or questions. We have a team in the bobcats who are top 10 in PACE against the rockets who are top 10 in OEFF. The common denominator is that both teams are in the bottom 3 of DEFF. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game with no defense. The cats are in a fatigue spot playing their 4th game in 5 days, but should perform better offensively being at home coming off two poor shooting performances. Neither team has incentive to play tough defense and I view this as streetball game with guys looking to pad their stats. I think both martin and lowry play tonight because its such an easy opponent to score against. The refs are relatively neutral with jones, kirkland and poole, but I dont expect this game to cash or not cash based on the officiating. This play is all about the fast pace, improved shooting and lack of defense. I have this game set at 199 and would play it up to 196, because of the value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Suns/Lakers under (191) 1x (Locked)

Two teams that play a slow pace, solid defense and inefficient offense. I have this one set at 187, which is where the books opened before the move. Rodney Mott is one of the refs and that's been great for the under over the last two seasons. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[No coincidences]

I think you've got a winner with the Wiz and the Kings over. Not sure about the others; didn't look at them.

Good luck tonight LTA.

[NOREGRETS]

All lines moved against us, except for wiz. Does not matter. Let's get some W's. Thanks LTA

[Rolo1984]

Hey there LTA...long time and thought I'd say hi.

I'm starting to see some numbers and have been making some adjustments to my modeling and it looks like we're on the opposite side in this SAC game so that's a bummer, although I guess one of us wins. I've been tracking things a little differently and since New Years the numbers I'm generating have really fallen into place and this play actually falls into a fairly strong category (undefeated so far) so we'll see how long it continues. MEM/OKL o192 was also qualifier so I booked that, although it's not as strong. The books are catching up, but I'm surprised how many of my numbers have been closer than the books so far and I haven't really cashed. I'm back-testing this still so I've been hesitant to play but it looks promising.

I've seen a sharp contrast in numbers compared to last season and the books are slowly catching on (hence all the unders being money right now) I came across this article that was interesting.

So good luck to ya and I have a few other qualifiers, but I'm not sure if I'll play. I lurk but try not get into the banter around here, but I'm sure I'll chime in once in a while GL tonight bro.

Interestin article and i wonder if LTA takes this into account. Seems pretty relevant.

[Speedy88]

I love your write ups, but I can't come to grips to take overs in the NBA yet. It seems like unders are hitting at a ridiculous rate. I've never been big on totals, but it just seems like there is such a lack of scoring this year. I know over time it will even out, but until I see that happen, I'm going to stay away from overs.

Either way BOL, and I'm on the Wiz -2 with you.

[szyy604]

LTA, tell me this bobcats over doesn't remind you of the portland one the other day...i stayed off it, and i'm glad i did for now

[MrXYZ]

We need a big 2nd half in the kings/76ers game, there's still hope!

[ManBearPig]

Interestin article and i wonder if LTA takes this into account. Seems pretty relevant.

He's smart so I'm sure he's aware and taken into account. I will say that these B2B 4N5/3N4 situations are different and I've been trying to gauge Off/Def eff although LT's logic makes sense and you'll really see in the 2H if this holds true.

I'm going to see what the % of 1H vs. 2H is scoring wise compared to prior years while I'm thinking about it.

[Love The Action]

LTA, I know you're a bulls fan. do you like a side in Bulls/Timberwolves?

No lean on the side. Bulls will probably win, but wouldn't be surprised to see a Minny cover. It's a fatigue spot for both.

[Love The Action]

We need a big 2nd half in the kings/76ers game, there's still hope!

Great pace, but both teams have shot horribly from 3 point land and Sac has shot terribly all around. Based on the pace, I actually feel quite comfortable in that play. If only a few of those 20 three pointers which were shot in the 1h went in, we would be way over pace for the over right now.

[Love The Action]

Interestin article and i wonder if LTA takes this into account. Seems pretty relevant.

He's smart so I'm sure he's aware and taken into account. I will say that these B2B 4N5/3N4 situations are different and I've been trying to gauge Off/Def eff although LT's logic makes sense and you'll really see in the 2H if this holds true.

I'm going to see what the % of 1H vs. 2H is scoring wise compared to prior years while I'm thinking about it.

First, let me say what up to MBP! He is a great contributor to SBR and one of the few voices that I give a great deal of respect and deference to.

With respect to the article, yes I am aware and have adjusted. However, so have the books. I am generally an under player in the NBA and you will see that more as the season progresses. However, in most of these fatigue spots, the books are overadjusting in favor of the under creating a large amount of value on the over. The hard part is picking your spots where the value will evidence itself on the court. I actually have a profitable record picking overs so far this season, so I feel that I have made the proper adjustments.

If you look at all of those factors in the article, you should ask yourself whether these are likely to continue for the long term or if they will eventually start to regress to their long term league averages. The answer is the latter rather than the former.

I always look to be proactive in my adjustments rather than reactive. Consequently, I try to figure out what the trends will be next few weeks as opposed to analyzing the trends from the past few weeks. I want to be ahead of the game. As soon as you see all of these articles popping up about the trend related to the lack of scoring, that is generally a signal that the same trend will not continue for much longer. The factors which have led to the lack of scoring will not continue forever. The question is when the tide will turn in favor of higher scoring games.

Generally, to start any NBA season, scoring is down when compared to mid-season averages. In this season, that trend is even more pronounced because of the lack of a preseason. Consequently, we are at the stage now where we would be at from the beginning of a normal regular season. That is why you may see this lack of scoring trend continue for the immediate future. However, the tide is going to turn at some point and I would rather be ahead of the game with a prediction of when that will occur as opposed to behind in the game just hoping it continues.

If you don't stay ahead of the books, you are doomed to be beaten by them.

[SoxSide Irish]

Wiz playin with some heart. Lets go.

[Love The Action]

We're going to need double OT in Charlotte

[I am Happy]

haha, literally just went through my head.

[mikea33]

LTA is under in LA game your only late play?

[I am Happy]

seems like that is the case

[dlunc3]

nice call on wash man, even with blatche out...

philly gonna be close... hopefully they keep chuckin em up

[Love The Action]

Lean over in Cavs/Jazz, but going to pass.

[Love The Action]

LTA is under in LA game your only late play?

Still working on one more play.

[mikea33]

**** the kings

[SoxSide Irish]

Blatche played btw

[SoxSide Irish]

Jimmer will save us...