LTA's NBA Plays

[Trivial]

I'm sure LTA can do a much better job explaining this, but I'll try and condense it down into a nutshell.

"EV" means "Expected Value," and it is tied to expected returns over time. Betting on a coin flip, where the outcome is exactly 50/50 over time, and getting even 1:1, or +100 odds on your bet would be a neutral EV play. Over time, you are expected to come out exactly even.

If you made the same bet on the coin flip, but you could find someone to pay you odds of 2:1, or +200, you would come out ahead over time, and that bet would always be +EV. If the bookie wanted to charge you -110 odds, typical for an against the spread bet, it would be -EV. Over time, that extra juice would cost you money on a bet that only wins half the time.

LTA can clarify much better and also explain how his models and system apply to EV. Thanks for your picks and knowledgeable approach! We need better examples of people like you who follow bankroll management and real handicapping. Keep up the good work!

Thank you my good man Andrew. Between this and the poker explanation I got it. I actually understood the concept before today, just didn't understand the notation being used.

I would hope one would understand the concept before ever placing a single wager, but I get it totally.

Thanks again.

[BigBurk]

Well, it does not happen much but I am on the opposite side on the NY/PHI total. Under 196½ for me.

With you on the Bulls under though, got it at under 183.

[BigBurk]

Had my eye on the under 187 at Utah/Lakers but when I wanted to place my bet it moved to 185. Waiting it to move back, I hope..

[IllyPhilly[DOC]]

Play #2

76'ers/Knicks over (195.5) 1x (Locked)

I could have had 194.5, but my wager would not go through when the steam hit. Nevertheless, I like this play up to 197. The sixers are playing very fast efficient offensive basketball ranked top 10 in PACE and top 3 in OEFF . However, they are in a fatigue spot which I think hurts their solid defense tonight against a similarly fast paced offensive team. The knicks are rested and I expect them to run. However, philly is so deep, I dont think the knicks can shut them down with their improving defense. The refs are phillips, fehr and richardson, all who generally favor the over. Last season, this matchup did not see a total under 206 and I think a 10 point adjustment is just too much. I have this game set at 200, giving us solid value on the over. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

How frustrating is it that the 76ers totals on these last b2b games didnt go over? 76ers are doing there job offensively, but the other side just sucks. The over hits tonight! The over is due for the 76ers.

[Andrewsurf]

Thank you my good man Andrew. Between this and the poker explanation I got it. I actually understood the concept before today, just didn't understand the notation being used.

I would hope one would understand the concept before ever placing a single wager, but I get it totally.

Thanks again.

Didn't even see someone had already explained, good stuff.

LTA, thanks again for posting your picks publicly. The reasoning behind them has so much value alone!

[Dmil]

Will the knicks drop to -3.5?

If anyone sees that number at their book, please let us know. Thanks.

Caribsports currently -3.5 -115

[fecgp40]

Wizards/Bulls is up to 183 at 5 Dimes... Oh well. I'm locking it in now.

[dizzydtw]

Locked in at u183 Was/Chi; seems to be holding steady at this point w betters at 50/50.

Interesting thing about the NYK/PHI total ... betters are slightly favoring the under (52.6% @ 1225p, cst), yet the total line keeps going up (now 196.5). This would suggest the smart money/bigger bettors is on the over, lending credence to LTA's call for an over despite the current trend of heavily favoring the unders. Am I wrong in making this assumption?

[Authentic]

The Washington/Chicago game just went up to 183.5

[Love The Action]

Locked in at u183 Was/Chi; seems to be holding steady at this point w betters at 50/50.

Interesting thing about the NYK/PHI total ... betters are slightly favoring the under (52.6% @ 1225p, cst), yet the total line keeps going up (now 196.5). This would suggest the smart money/bigger bettors is on the over, lending credence to LTA's call for an over despite the current trend of heavily favoring the unders. Am I wrong in making this assumption?

I believe you are trying to describe reverse line movement aka RLM. If so, I strongly disagree with your statement for a variety of reasons, not the least of which is that what you describe does not
constitute RLM under its generally accepted definition.

Remind me later tonight and if I have time, I will expound on my thoughts respecting this issue. GL

[jas19illini]

Remind me later tonight and if I have time, I will expound on my thoughts respecting this issue. GL

[Love The Action]

Guys....we are not going to beat the closing number 100% of the time and even though we are beating the market in over 74% of all plays to date, it is still very early in the season before my model and I get a controlling handle on the market and predictive line moves. Therefore, we don't need all the repetitive posts that highlight the same line moves that have already been discussed. Please read the posts that have been made and please refrain from posting the same thing over and over.

This goes for questions as well....if people would actually read the thread, most of tge same questions and answers are discussed ad nauseum.

Thanks and good luck tonight.

[r1kkie]

On your plays, Good luck to you too and great work as always!

[GChild]

LTA, you mentioned that 2 & 7 are the most comon key numbers in nba what follows that. Sorry to ask this but I looked and cannot find this. Thanks

[Redscot]

Will the knicks drop to -3.5?

If anyone sees that number at their book, please let us know. Thanks.

Bookmaker went to 3 1/2 bro. Looks like Pinny may get there as well......

Regarding the Bulls total, it IS rare to see LTA's model not predict the direction of the line, let's me know he is human though. I also noted in his write-up that the game didn't have tremendous value from his model standpoint, but as a Bulls follower there was a certain "gut" element, knowing his team better than others. Win or lose you da man LTA,your consistency is one of your best attributes.

[dlunc3]

rose doubtful tonight... should help us out

[Redscot]

Rose likely out for Bulls tonight....line has been taken down! Let's see where this total pops back up now
Edit: 180 1/2 LOL, you a clairvoyant LTA.

[FlaxMartin]

Glad that I got u 183.5 Thx for the plays LTA!

[Night-Tripper]

Guys....we are not going to beat the closing number 100% of the time and even though we are beating the market in over 74% of all plays to date, it is still very early in the season before my model and I get a controlling handle on the market and predictive line moves. Therefore, we don't need all the repetitive posts that highlight the same line moves that have already been discussed. Please read the posts that have been made and please refrain from posting the same thing over and over.

This goes for questions as well....if people would actually read the thread, most of tge same questions and answers are discussed ad nauseum.

Thanks and good luck tonight.

Thanks for the tip, dude... I managed to snatch some at 184*, before they pulled it off the board.

By the way... what kind/caliber handgun is that in your avatar?

[Bbobbi]

Its a tv show Breaking Bad

[Redscot]

Its a tv show Breaking Bad

I was trying to come up with something regarding that comment. LTA is a DANGEROUS man! Although one never knows, maybe LTA is strapped........... All in good fun Night Tripper , but it is kinda funny you imagining LTA as the image in his avatar (you'd have to see the show) .

[absolutkaos]

I was trying to come up with something regarding that comment. LTA is a DANGEROUS man! Although one never knows, maybe LTA is strapped........... All in good fun Night Tripper , but it is kinda funny you imagining LTA as the image in his avatar (you'd have to see the show) .

LTA = Heisenberg

[Night-Tripper]

I was trying to come up with something regarding that comment. LTA is a DANGEROUS man! Although one never knows, maybe LTA is strapped........... All in good fun Night Tripper , but it is kinda funny you imagining LTA as the image in his avatar (you'd have to see the show) .

Nah... I knew it wasn't of him, but I was hoping that he knew the type of gun that's pictured.

If it's not sports-related, I don't watch it... so it could be from any show... could care less.

Actually... I find it amusing that anyone thought that I thought it was a picture of him.

In closing... I do have a CHL and I am always carrying... which is why I had an interest in the pistol.

[brucethebear]

5d had hit 184. I thought I would wait until I got to work to see if that was the peak, so missed it.

[Redscot]

Nah... I knew it wasn't of him, but I was hoping that he knew the type of gun that's pictured.

If it's not sports-related, I don't watch it... so it could be from any show... could care less.

Actually... I find it amusing that anyone thought that I thought it was a picture of him.

In closing... I do have a CHL and I am always carrying... which is why I had an interest in the pistol.

Gotcha NT, believe me there was never any ill intent in the , it just gave me a mental image of LTA that made me crackup. GL tonight bro .

[Night-Tripper]

Gotcha NT, believe me there was never any ill intent in the , it just gave me a mental image of LTA that made me crackup. GL tonight bro .

Nah... it's all good. I have a pretty good sense of humor, and I have no problem with people having fun with me... I don't take myself that seriously.

[Creepingdoom]

Smith & Wesson 4506

[ShaisterInc]

Got NYK @197 and CH @180.5 thanks for the play LTA . BOL to all!!

[ShaisterInc]

Rose not expected to play for Bulls!! Even better for the under!!!

[Love That Action]

Play #3

Lakers -1.5 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at a 184 box score and i see Lakers winning by about 7. It is just too much value to pass up. Kobe will demolish Utah's smalls as he did high on confidence from last night. The Lakers are ranked 1 in offense pace and 5th in rebounding which will be too much to pass up in such a game. I love the Lakers here and it's my pick of the night. GL!

[Night-Tripper]

Smith & Wesson 4506

Thanks... only S&W I have is a 686. All of my semi's are either Kahr, Beretta, Colt or SIG.

[Authentic]

Hey LTA, how do you feel about Knicks -3.5?

[mikea33]

play #3 lakers -1.5 1x (locked) i have this game set at a 184 box score and i see lakers winning by about 7. It is just too much value to pass up. Kobe will demolish utah's smalls as he did high on confidence from last night. The lakers are ranked 1 in offense pace and 5th in rebounding which will be too much to pass up in such a game. I love the lakers here and it's my pick of the night. Gl!

fraud

[Love The Action]

Play #3

Lakers -1.5 1x (Locked)

I have this game set at a 184 box score and i see Lakers winning by about 7. It is just too much value to pass up. Kobe will demolish Utah's smalls as he did high on confidence from last night. The Lakers are ranked 1 in offense pace and 5th in rebounding which will be too much to pass up in such a game. I love the Lakers here and it's my pick of the night. GL!

Guys...don't be fooled by this ghost/troll who is tring to misrepresent themselves as me. This lame ass loser has nothing better to do than troll and try to imitate me. I have reported this fraud to the mods and I trust they will ban him. It is very sad that there are losers like this in the world with nothing better to do. However, I would ask that you simply ignore this troll. Thanks.

The real "LTA"

[therocket]

Ummm, did anyone else notice on LTA's lakers pick that it's "love THAT action" and it's his first post? I'm thinken shenanigans and someone is being a tricky dick. I'm kinda new around these parts, but that seems kinda weird...,