Originally posted by Love The Action
I do not believe your example constitutes reverse line movement. The generally accepted definition of reverse line movement requires three things: (1) a betting volume which exceeds 10,000 wagers in the NFL or 3,000-7,000 in the NBA; (2) 65% or more of all wagers on one side (i.e. the "public side"); and (3) a line move of 1 point or more against that "public" side. Your example only has about 52% on the under and would not qualify.
Generally, the same people that blindly tail RLM are the same types who think that the only way to profit is to "fade the public." I don't agree. I feel that the only way to be profitable is getting the best numbers possible, creating value between your number and closing number and by staying one step ahead of the market. Personally, I view RLM as one tool of many to use in your capping arsenal and not as the sole reason to make a play. In addition, you need to know the difference between true RLM versus false RLM. By true RLM, I mean RLM that is triggered by "sharp" or "sydicate" money as opposed to "big" money or just whales who don't do their homework but who have huge BR's to throw around. The problem is that you never really know for sure because the books do not release the amount of money on any wager, only the total amount of wagers. Therefore, you need to develop the ability to know a sharp move from move instigated by money alone.
Regardless, the true key is being ahead of the RLM and jumping on a steam play before the steam. The problem with following RLM is that you are invariably reactive to the line movement instead of proactive and getting on the valuable number before the value is sucked out by the sharp steam. What ends up happening is that RLM is nothing but a 50/50 proposition if you follow it long term because you are constantly betting into stale numbers.
For example, if the Bulls are set at +13 with 80% of 10,000 wagers placed on the Bulls, yet all of a sudden the line drops to +10, a guy who follows RLM will jump on that +10 and miss out on all of the value in the original number. Consequently, the RLM junkie who jumped on the bad number at +10 will lose, while the sharp money or syndicate money that caused the steam cashes their tickets at +12 or +13 when the Bulls win by 11.
When you are constantly following RLM and playing into stale numbers, you will end up losing long term because of the vig. What you need to do is start predicting when the RLM will occur. Track RLM plays and learn betting patters of the syndicates by comparing what common denominators exist between a large sample of RLM plays. Once you can identify those factors which are causing the RLM, you will able to get on the valuable number before the RLM hits and stay one step ahead.
Remember, if you don't stay ahead of the market, you cannot succeed. Unless the closing line is the best number you can get on a play, you need to start placing your wagers before the line movement hits each day around 10 am EST. You need to get the best number possible and beat the efficiency of the closing number on a consistent basis in order to ensure yourself profitability. In order to do that, you cannot blindly tail RLM. And if you don't believe me, take if from Pinnacle:
I like to use RLM as something to determine the AMOUNT of my wager on a play, as opposed to a determining factor in the play itself.
Generally, the same people that blindly tail RLM are the same types who think that the only way to profit is to "fade the public." I don't agree. I feel that the only way to be profitable is getting the best numbers possible, creating value between your number and closing number and by staying one step ahead of the market. Personally, I view RLM as one tool of many to use in your capping arsenal and not as the sole reason to make a play. In addition, you need to know the difference between true RLM versus false RLM. By true RLM, I mean RLM that is triggered by "sharp" or "sydicate" money as opposed to "big" money or just whales who don't do their homework but who have huge BR's to throw around. The problem is that you never really know for sure because the books do not release the amount of money on any wager, only the total amount of wagers. Therefore, you need to develop the ability to know a sharp move from move instigated by money alone.
Regardless, the true key is being ahead of the RLM and jumping on a steam play before the steam. The problem with following RLM is that you are invariably reactive to the line movement instead of proactive and getting on the valuable number before the value is sucked out by the sharp steam. What ends up happening is that RLM is nothing but a 50/50 proposition if you follow it long term because you are constantly betting into stale numbers.
For example, if the Bulls are set at +13 with 80% of 10,000 wagers placed on the Bulls, yet all of a sudden the line drops to +10, a guy who follows RLM will jump on that +10 and miss out on all of the value in the original number. Consequently, the RLM junkie who jumped on the bad number at +10 will lose, while the sharp money or syndicate money that caused the steam cashes their tickets at +12 or +13 when the Bulls win by 11.
When you are constantly following RLM and playing into stale numbers, you will end up losing long term because of the vig. What you need to do is start predicting when the RLM will occur. Track RLM plays and learn betting patters of the syndicates by comparing what common denominators exist between a large sample of RLM plays. Once you can identify those factors which are causing the RLM, you will able to get on the valuable number before the RLM hits and stay one step ahead.
Remember, if you don't stay ahead of the market, you cannot succeed. Unless the closing line is the best number you can get on a play, you need to start placing your wagers before the line movement hits each day around 10 am EST. You need to get the best number possible and beat the efficiency of the closing number on a consistent basis in order to ensure yourself profitability. In order to do that, you cannot blindly tail RLM. And if you don't believe me, take if from Pinnacle:
I like to use RLM as something to determine the AMOUNT of my wager on a play, as opposed to a determining factor in the play itself.
Feel free to call me dumb. Lol.
