You too Red? I was putting my daughter to sleep. I bought out of it too.
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Hey LTA, since youre waiting until this fiasco passes before posting anymore plays, maybe you could kill some time and explain your thoughts on RLM? Just a thought. Im very interested to hear what you have to say about it.Comment -
This Knicks over is dead!!!! Sloppy basketball hard to watch, traing camp, pre-season, combined with the fact the players didnt get what they wanted out of contract talks you have alot of players who dont give a F*.Comment -
wow mailman... we're not THAT offpace... relax bud. still have the entire second half.Comment -
Sorry just upset, with this whole over thing three nights in a row now!Comment -
The OVER is more than dead...OT miracle is our only hope.Comment -
Anyone who thinks a total is won or lost with a whole half left to play has obviously not been playing the NBA market long enough. I cannot tell you how many unders I lost last season with a similar scoring pace through halftime, including almost 20 unders lost to OT. I never won one over last season due to overtime, so I am actually expecting that trend to change this season, hopefully starting with tonight.
It's not likely to win, but it is not "dead" by any means.Comment -
Working on any late plays LTA?Comment -
Card final LTA?Comment -
Strong lean to the under between Denver and NJ. I will pass though as I feel this line happens to be set that high for a reason. I think the books expect a big scoring game tonight. GL to those playing it.Comment -
Thank you.Comment -
Can anybody explain Atlanta to me? I know they were dogs tonight but they just quit!Comment -
Thought I would drop this to whomever was asking about key numbers...this is a little more extensive but useful all the same.Comment -
This Knicks/Sixers game has been sickening, I completely understand the rationale for the over.
Elton Brand taking the shot down 83-79 w/ 30 seconds left? a guy who went 4-12 on the night... just sloppy game. 76ers shooting 15% on 3's in the first half.
This years over/unders have not been consistent and straight up frustrating. Condensed schedule is basically just a hit or miss it seems.Comment -
Play #3
Magic (+3) 1x (Locked)
I am going to step out a bit with the Magic on the road in a very tough environment. However, Portland is on a b2b, and although they are not particularly tired, Orlando has had 2 days rest. If you look at the stats, these two teams are very similar in OEFF, DEFF, True Shooting %, Effective Shooting %,etc. With Howard being challenged to step up and Orlando playing with revenge after losing all three games last season in this matchup, I think we have a sneaky spot to back the road team. I have the Magic set at +2 giving us 1 point of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the Magic for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Already had them locked in. Makes me feel more confortable. Who do you like in the other game, Heat or Clippers? Im leaning over.Comment -
Watching bulls game. These guys can hardly stand they look so tired.Comment -
Nice win on bulls underComment -
dang, missed magic play...good startComment -
I missed your magic play as well. Nice call. They are up by 20. GLLast edited by jjeagle; 01-11-12, 10:59 PM.Comment -
I do not believe your example constitutes reverse line movement. The generally accepted definition of reverse line movement requires three things: (1) a betting volume which exceeds 10,000 wagers in the NFL or 3,000-7,000 in the NBA; (2) 65% or more of all wagers on one side (i.e. the "public side"); and (3) a line move of 1 point or more against that "public" side. Your example only has about 52% on the under and would not qualify.
Generally, the same people that blindly tail RLM are the same types who think that the only way to profit is to "fade the public." I don't agree. I feel that the only way to be profitable is getting the best numbers possible, creating value between your number and closing number and by staying one step ahead of the market. Personally, I view RLM as one tool of many to use in your capping arsenal and not as the sole reason to make a play. In addition, you need to know the difference between true RLM versus false RLM. By true RLM, I mean RLM that is triggered by "sharp" or "sydicate" money as opposed to "big" money or just whales who don't do their homework but who have huge BR's to throw around. The problem is that you never really know for sure because the books do not release the amount of money on any wager, only the total amount of wagers. Therefore, you need to develop the ability to know a sharp move from move instigated by money alone.
Regardless, the true key is being ahead of the RLM and jumping on a steam play before the steam. The problem with following RLM is that you are invariably reactive to the line movement instead of proactive and getting on the valuable number before the value is sucked out by the sharp steam. What ends up happening is that RLM is nothing but a 50/50 proposition if you follow it long term because you are constantly betting into stale numbers.
For example, if the Wizards are set at +13 with 80% of 10,000 wagers placed on the Bulls, yet all of a sudden the line drops to +10, a guy who follows RLM will jump on that +10 and miss out on all of the value in the original number. Consequently, the RLM junkie who jumped on the bad number at +10 will lose, while the sharp money or syndicate money that caused the steam cashes their tickets on the Wizards at +12 or +13 when the Bulls win by 11.
When you are constantly following RLM and playing into stale numbers, you will end up losing long term because of the vig. What you need to do is start predicting when the RLM will occur. Track RLM plays and learn betting patters of the syndicates by comparing what common denominators exist between a large sample of RLM plays. Once you can identify those factors which are causing the RLM, you will able to get on the valuable number before the RLM hits and stay one step ahead.
Remember, if you don't stay ahead of the market, you cannot succeed. Unless the closing line is the best number you can get on a play, you need to start placing your wagers before the line movement hits each day around 10 am EST. You need to get the best number possible and beat the efficiency of the closing number on a consistent basis in order to ensure yourself profitability. In order to do that, you cannot blindly tail RLM. And if you don't believe me, take if from Pinnacle:
I like to use RLM as something to determine the AMOUNT of my wager on a play, as opposed to a determining factor in the play itself.
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^ Reported for being a clown.Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/12/2012
Play #1
Pistons/Bucks under (177.5) 1x (Locked)
I am jumping on this one now as I expect this one to drop to 176 by Thursday morning and a closing number around 175. We have both team suffering from depth problems due to injury with Stuckey downgraded to doubtful for Detroit and Villanueva questionable, while the Bucks will be without Dunleavy and Moute, with Udrih upgraded to questionable. Without Stuckey, the Pistons don't have any scoring threats, especially with Ben Gordon playing like a shell of his former self. On the other hand, the Bucks do have Bogut back, but I think that actually helps our under play as the Bucks will slow down their recent fast pace and play a more half court oriented game. Detroit ranks at or near the bottom of the league in all of the major advanced statistical categories such as OEFF, TS%,EFG%, etc., while the Bucks continue to rank at the top of the league in advanced defensive categories behind the defensive task master-like coach in Scott Skiles. I don't expect Detroit to play with a lot of energy because they are in a small fatigue spot playing their 3rd game in 4 nights, while the Bucks are rested and playing at home for the first time after a long road trip. Consequently, I expect maximum defensive effort, but a poor shooting game in this classic let down spot with the Bucks playing their first home game in awhile. Detroit has almost no chance to win, but Milwaukee has had two great shooting performances in a row against the Suns and Spurs and this team just can't sustain such a high percentage. I fully expect a regression tomorrow and a poor shooting performance from the Bucks as a team. Neither team will be looking to run tomorrow and I think we see a rather ugly game which will be won on the defensive end, most likely by the Bucks. I have this game set at 174 giving us a full 3 points of variance between my number and what the books are giving us at the moment and that is just too much value to pass up. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Another solid night Mr Heisenberg
in the lab. This NBA blue meth you cook up for us every day is gold dust!
Congrats, and your imposter wannabee Heisenberg will be dealt with shortly rest assured.He will be
before the week is out.
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Sucks to see some of the trolls in this forum doing stuff like that. Just wanted to stop in this topic and let you know that it's appreciated to see detailed write-ups and good analysis. Looks like you take the time answering questions in here too. Don't get much of that on SBR anymore. Good luck LTA
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. What a pathetic fool. Reported him as well, bad business for SBR having scrubs like that on the loose.
