LTA's NBA Plays

[TC Woods]

took your advice tonight soo far i am 0-2 and this is my first time on this site....just great!

[bringdownthehous]

we got any shot at the under or is it toast?

[TC Woods]

we got any shot at the under or is it toast?

Always a shot

[SoxSide Irish]

I took orlando -2.5 second half...Drunk chasing = bad strategy

[bringdownthehous]

Always a shot

I think best thing to do at this point is to turn the tv off for me and hope for the best haha...saves me alota headaches..this is why I hate over unders...never any fun to watch especially the unders

[jonathon1995]

I never take the under except tonight I took both of these, I did play UVA over Duke for 2 units so it looks like I'm down just the juice tonight.

[TC Woods]

STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM- A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF +/- PTS

Dwight Howard, C 22 6-12 0-0 9-18 6 15 1 1 1 4 0 +2 21


This is Howards line, No personal fouls?????

[kl06ty]

STARTERS MIN FGM-A 3PM-A FTM- A OREB REB AST STL BLK TO PF +/- PTS

Dwight Howard, C 22 6-12 0-0 9-18 6 15 1 1 1 4 0 +2 21


This is Howards line, No personal fouls?????

He can't even foul, if he tried to, he'd get fouled instead.

[TC Woods]

He can't even foul, if he tried to, he'd get fouled instead.

I'm still following this game... Howard still with no fouls...

Other interesting stats:

Total Fouls- GS = 32, Orlando = 13

Free Throws = GS = 16, Orlando = 48

Howard has shot 36 Free throws himself

And GS is the HOME team

[dlunc3]

I'm still following this game... Howard still with no fouls...

Other interesting stats:

Total Fouls- GS = 32, Orlando = 13

Free Throws = GS = 16, Orlando = 48

Howard has shot 36 Free throws himself

And GS is the HOME team

you honestly are not watching the game are you? they have been fouling howard on purpose every time down court

[inn_keeper]

I'm still following this game... Howard still with no fouls...

Other interesting stats:

Total Fouls- GS = 32, Orlando = 13

Free Throws = GS = 16, Orlando = 48

Howard has shot 36 Free throws himself

And GS is the HOME team

Are you watching the game or the gamecast on Yahoo? They are fouling Dwight Howard to intentionally send him to the line where he is shooting like shit.

[doogtonmai]

-------- copied to post below

[TC Woods]

you honestly are not watching the game are you? they have been fouling howard on purpose every time down court

No, just following on ESPN

If that the case, I take it all back

[doogtonmai]

Orlando ML -200 after being up three points with GS with the ball. One stop another unit cashed!!! 30 seconds later it goes up to -450 during commercial break. Just stating this for those interested in taking advantage of mistakes.

It always bothers me of the whiners after a bad start during a game. If you feel that disgusted with it buy it out and lose the juice by taking the opposite side and hope it doesn't middle, which only happens like 20% of the time. The worst thing to do though is to keep buying your side hoping it'll turn around. If I take the same side with Live Betting it's after early scores or lack thereof. Obviously, you need to have an online site to have this option.

For example today, I lost two units one in the beginning of the game and then one midway through the first...I was able to lock in Under at 204.5 chasing the units already placed at 189. LTA says much about value, so when you don't get your line always know you can probably make it up on the Live Betting lines. When you see the pace or see the strategy a coach may be using with the "fouling Howard" strategy...even the Vegas lines couldn't adjust. The Over went to 217 before finally coming off the board in the beginning of the 4th quarter. I switched to "Over" thinking at half and made 12 units after the half.

Another good strategy is to hear the coaches strategy right before the beginning of the 3rd quarters. For example, in football (doesn't work much in basketball) you might hear a coach say "we need to run the ball this half", then obviously you should lean toward the under. I make most of my money betting 2nd half and Live Betting lines.

If your bet is looking good, just let it ride or play the opposite with a cover parlay. You might even win both bets. Don't risk betting 2nd half lines and lose your initial wager winnings. Be careful because the Vegas lines are made to "middle" and you can lose both. However, sometimes they are not always accurate especially when the score is close to the spread at half.

Try doing this with $5 bets and see how it goes. I don't recommend anyone risking their normal unit wager on these lines. You'll feel the flow as you practice more with these games. Treat every game like it's a moving stock price. You can make money on the way up and on the way down. And like stocks...when the stock is going up most of the time it keeps going up and vice versa. I don't respond much to threads, but I feel some people on this thread are risking their entire bankroll on a game at times. If you simply follow LTA you should win every season in all the sports he covers. PM me if you want to know whom I follow with same and other sports too. Good luck!

[Dave88]

took your advice tonight soo far i am 0-2 and this is my first time on this site....just great!

[apurvaas]

Orlando ML -200 after being up three points with GS with the ball. One stop another unit cashed!!! 30 seconds later it goes up to -450 during commercial break. Just stating this for those interested in taking advantage of mistakes.

It always bothers me of the whiners after a bad start during a game. If you feel that disgusted with it buy it out and lose the juice by taking the opposite side and hope it doesn't middle, which only happens like 20% of the time. The worst thing to do though is to keep buying your side hoping it'll turn around. If I take the same side with Live Betting it's after early scores or lack thereof. Obviously, you need to have an online site to have this option.

For example today, I lost two units one in the beginning of the game and then one midway through the first...I was able to lock in Under at 204.5 chasing the units already placed at 189. LTA says much about value, so when you don't get your line always know you can probably make it up on the Live Betting lines. When you see the pace or see the strategy a coach may be using with the "fouling Howard" strategy...even the Vegas lines couldn't adjust. The Over went to 217 before finally coming off the board in the beginning of the 4th quarter. I switched to "Over" thinking at half and made 12 units after the half.

Another good strategy is to hear the coaches strategy right before the beginning of the 3rd quarters. For example, in football (doesn't work much in basketball) you might hear a coach say "we need to run the ball this half", then obviously you should lean toward the under. I make most of my money betting 2nd half and Live Betting lines.

If your bet is looking good, just let it ride or play the opposite with a cover parlay. You might even win both bets. Don't risk betting 2nd half lines and lose your initial wager winnings. Be careful because the Vegas lines are made to "middle" and you can lose both. However, sometimes they are not always accurate especially when the score is close to the spread at half.

Try doing this with $5 bets and see how it goes. I don't recommend anyone risking their normal unit wager on these lines. You'll feel the flow as you practice more with these games. Treat every game like it's a moving stock price. You can make money on the way up and on the way down. And like stocks...when the stock is going up most of the time it keeps going up and vice versa. I don't respond much to threads, but I feel some people on this thread are risking their entire bankroll on a game at times. If you simply follow LTA you should win every season in all the sports he covers. PM me if you want to know whom I follow with same and other sports too. Good luck!

Cant send you pm as my post count is Low
Nice advice! I am rookie and don't know how to do live betting! a guidance would be helpful! For today I had all 3 bets going down but put 5X on magic -3 and 1x parlay for magic -3 total over 93.5 2nd half and got a huge day
I tried going to the website's live betting section but couldn't understand ! Using betonline, bet eagle (local set up my account but don't use it much as the payouts for parlays are way lower and lines don't open early enough)!
Started following LTA and m so happy! Thanks LTA
TIA

[Speedy88]

Tough night LTA. I'm sure you'll come back strong tomorrow. It's a long season, plenty of time to make money.

[That Guy]

One of those days!
Thanks LTA for the picks - been following for a while and can deal with the losses after a few good weeks.
GL tomorrow.

[apurvaas]

Thanks LTA for the picks.. tough losses for today!

[Redscot]

Momma said there'd be days like this. That's why money management is so key. No worries LTA, we are up comfortably in this young season, and I expect to be well in the black by season's end. Thanks for putting in the work and sharing bro.

P.S. Anyone who just blindly tails, kinda forfeits the right to talk shiznit......go spend a few hours capping today's games and get back to us

[Love The Action]

took your advice tonight soo far i am 0-2 and this is my first time on this site....just great!

Sorry dude. However, I have never asked you nor anyone else to tail my plays. I always say that you should cap your own games and use my plays/writeups as a reference to compare against your own plays.

I am not a tout. I am not looking for followers. I'm just posting my own personal plays publicly to spur discussion so we can all learn from each others. I suggest you start learning something from this thread and others on SBR instead of just blindly tailing.

Nevertheless, while I feel bad for you, I feel much worse for me. I'm not playing for $50 per unit here. When I lose 4x like tonight, that's over $1,600 of BR down the drain. Consequently, there's no point in highlighting a losing night to me because I am fully aware. No one hates losing money more than me.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/12/2012 Recap

0 - 4 = -4x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

31 - 25 = +5.25x

A rough night to be sure, but one that was bound to happen. That's why we focus on the long term and use solid money management. We need to be able to withstand nights like that because when you are grinding every day, the NBA season is all about peaks and valleys. You just hope the money you make during the peaks, outweighs the money you lose in the valleys. Our goal is to learn from nights like this and use what we learn to bounce back. Good luck on Friday.

[iuliux]

Our goal is to learn from nights like this and use what we learn to bounce back. Good luck on Friday.

Any picks for today?

[aussieH]

Any picks for today?

Does the sun shine?

[iuliux]

Does the sun shine?

good one

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/13/2012

Play #1

Trail Blazers/Spurs over (193) 1x (Locked)

I only worry about two things with this play: (1) Portland is playing out of their comfort zone of the Roze Garden; and (2) Portland's defensive strength is defending the three point shot and the Spurs' offensive strength is making the three point shot -- something has to give and the value here is just too much to pass up. As we all know, this is not the same Portland team from years past that plays a slow half-court game. This new, athletic Portland lineup loves to run, especially when Felton is on the court, and I suspect they will especially want to run tonight in order to ware down the older Spurs who don't have Ginobli. However, San Antonio is a system offense and if they can get into just a little bit of a rhythm, this one should go over. The Spurs are all about finding the open guy and letting him shoot whoever that might be. Popovich has confidence in all of his guys and that's good enough for me. If you look at the advanced stats, even though Portland is 8th overall in DEFF, they are not as efficient defensively on the road. Moreover, their opponent effective shooting % and opponent true shooting % numbers are in the bottom 1/3 of the league. If you go through the schedule, you will see that their defense feasted off of the weaker teams like Phoenix, Cleveland and Sacramento, but has had tough times against the more efficient offenses like Orlando, OKC, Denver and Philly. Tonight, Portland will be facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency as the Spurs' system offense continues to generate points, even without Ginobli. With the Spurs playing at home, I think they find an early rhythm and play a solid game offensively and they surprisingly have a solid advantage in total rebounding %. With that said, however, the other end of the court has been a different story this season for the Spurs. Historically, the Spurs have been one of the better defensive teams, however, this season has not been good defensively for SA. The currently rank at or near the bottom in DEFF, OTS%, OEFG% and even though they have solid opponent offensive and defensive rebounding % numbers, I think the length, athleticism and quickness of Portland could pose problems for Duncan and Blair down low tonight. This play is all about the value. Pinny opened up at 195.5 and saw early under money, perhaps because we are seeing a matchup of defensive strength versus offensive strength. However, I'm not so sure this was just someone setting the market up for a big buy on the over at a better number because my numbers have this one at 197.5, which is 2 points more the Pinny's opener and 4.5 points of value compared to the 193 I bought. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[TC Woods]

For today I had all 3 bets going down but put 5X on magic -3 and 1x parlay for magic -3 total over 93.5 2nd half and got a huge day

TIA

I'm also a rookie, could you explain what these means and how you did it a little more?

Thanks

[TC Woods]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/13/2012

Play #1

Trail Blazers/Spurs over (193) 1x (Locked)

I only worry about two things with this play: (1) Portland is playing out of their comfort zone of the Roze Garden; and (2) Portland's defensive strength is defending the three point shot and the Spurs' offensive strength is making the three point shot -- something has to give and the value here is just too much to pass up. As we all know, this is not the same Portland team from years past that plays a slow half-court game. This new, athletic Portland lineup loves to run, especially when Felton is on the court, and I suspect they will especially want to run tonight in order to ware down the older Spurs who don't have Ginobli. However, San Antonio is a system offense and if they can get into just a little bit of a rhythm, this one should go over. The Spurs are all about finding the open guy and letting him shoot whoever that might be. Popovich has confidence in all of his guys and that's good enough for me. If you look at the advanced stats, even though Portland is 8th overall in DEFF, they are not as efficient defensively on the road. Moreover, their opponent effective shooting % and opponent true shooting % numbers are in the bottom 1/3 of the league. If you go through the schedule, you will see that their defense feasted off of the weaker teams like Phoenix, Cleveland and Sacramento, but has had tough times against the more efficient offenses like Orlando, OKC, Denver and Philly. Tonight, Portland will be facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency as the Spurs' system offense continues to generate points, even without Ginobli. With the Spurs playing at home, I think they find an early rhythm and play a solid game offensively and they surprisingly have a solid advantage in total rebounding %. With that said, however, the other end of the court has been a different story this season for the Spurs. Historically, the Spurs have been one of the better defensive teams, however, this season has not been good defensively for SA. The currently rank at or near the bottom in DEFF, OTS%, OEFG% and even though they have solid opponent offensive and defensive rebounding % numbers, I think the length, athleticism and quickness of Portland could pose problems for Duncan and Blair down low tonight. This play is all about the value. Pinny opened up at 195.5 and saw early under money, perhaps because we are seeing a matchup of defensive strength versus offensive strength. However, I'm not so sure this was just someone setting the market up for a big buy on the over at a better number because my numbers have this one at 197.5, which is 2 points more the Pinny's opener and 4.5 points of value compared to the 193 I bought. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

I'm on it!

Thoughts on PHX/NJ <197 1/2 and Dallas/Milw <184 1/2?

[BigBurk]

The under in Phoenix seems like a good bet, most of Phoenix home games have gone way under lately. I am on this under, and the over @ Dallas.

[Love The Action]

Guys...please post breaking injury news today. I will be very busy at work with limited time. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/13/2012

Play #1

Trail Blazers/Spurs over (193) 1x (Locked)

I only worry about two things with this play: (1) Portland is playing out of their comfort zone of the Roze Garden; and (2) Portland's defensive strength is defending the three point shot and the Spurs' offensive strength is making the three point shot -- something has to give and the value here is just too much to pass up. As we all know, this is not the same Portland team from years past that plays a slow half-court game. This new, athletic Portland lineup loves to run, especially when Felton is on the court, and I suspect they will especially want to run tonight in order to ware down the older Spurs who don't have Ginobli. However, San Antonio is a system offense and if they can get into just a little bit of a rhythm, this one should go over. The Spurs are all about finding the open guy and letting him shoot whoever that might be. Popovich has confidence in all of his guys and that's good enough for me. If you look at the advanced stats, even though Portland is 8th overall in DEFF, they are not as efficient defensively on the road. Moreover, their opponent effective shooting % and opponent true shooting % numbers are in the bottom 1/3 of the league. If you go through the schedule, you will see that their defense feasted off of the weaker teams like Phoenix, Cleveland and Sacramento, but has had tough times against the more efficient offenses like Orlando, OKC, Denver and Philly. Tonight, Portland will be facing the #1 team in offensive efficiency as the Spurs' system offense continues to generate points, even without Ginobli. With the Spurs playing at home, I think they find an early rhythm and play a solid game offensively and they surprisingly have a solid advantage in total rebounding %. With that said, however, the other end of the court has been a different story this season for the Spurs. Historically, the Spurs have been one of the better defensive teams, however, this season has not been good defensively for SA. The currently rank at or near the bottom in DEFF, OTS%, OEFG% and even though they have solid opponent offensive and defensive rebounding % numbers, I think the length, athleticism and quickness of Portland could pose problems for Duncan and Blair down low tonight. This play is all about the value. Pinny opened up at 195.5 and saw early under money, perhaps because we are seeing a matchup of defensive strength versus offensive strength. However, I'm not so sure this was just someone setting the market up for a big buy on the over at a better number because my numbers have this one at 197.5, which is 2 points more the Pinny's opener and 4.5 points of value compared to the 193 I bought. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Kings/Rockets over (198) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup right now...maybe later. I have this set at 202 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

[r1kkie]

After rain comes sunshine!

[ShaisterInc]

Lucky Friday the 13th baby!!!! Lets get this money!!!

[apurvaas]

Got both! 1x on each and 1x parlayed the

[BigBurk]

Play #2

Kings/Rockets over (198) 1x (Locked)

No time for a writeup right now...maybe later. I have this set at 202 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Well, although you are busy I need to ask how you set this at 202?

Rockets at home have only pulled unders as to date with 190, 179 and 193 points, while the Kings on b2b also only have pulled three unders not coming even close to the 198 line that has been set.