LTA's NBA Plays

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 10:34 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Guys, we can look at all the stats in the world but they all become meaningless if we dont look at the most important and most OVERLOOKED stat - Who refs the games!
Example was tonight - The Miami game had 67 free throws, yes SIXTY SEVEN! It means our over is all but dead. The Pacers were horrible offensively tonight (83pts) but got a staggering 39 free throws. This should have gone easily under the posted total but alas the zebras decided otherwise. I really believe we need to look at ref assignments as a key when we our handicapping these games.

Don't you read my writeups? Unless I lock a play in at night when the lines open, I always check the ref assignments and mention them in my writeups. In this game, the refs were Richardson, Goble and Smith who all are pretty neutral with a slight under lean (as I mentioned in my writeup).

Ugh...no offense, but that type of comment makes me think those writeups -- most of which are done from my phone while at work on weekdays -- are just a waste of time.

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by Redscot

Just a note to thread members. LTA always states in his write-ups what number he has the game set at. For instance he has the Knicks game set at 199.5. He has done his work and shared it with us. It is up to us to decide whether there is value left at the moment we lay our wager. IMO if the line is now at 200, that would be a no play. Good luck all

Originally posted by 815Sox

I always like to say, the most a posted play should do is alert you to a potential play. Its up to you to do the research to see if you agree with the play. LTA is one of the best on SBR don't get me wrong, but you are the one that pushes the button/makes the phone call.

**riffraff24** · 01-04-12, 10:40 PM

Of course the easy win I decide to fade because of my horrible run I was trying to stop. Ended up taking Over 84 at the end of the 1st to hopefully cover my dumb decision. Nicely done LTA congrats bro!

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 10:49 PM

Really pissed I didn't play my over leans in the Bulls/Pistons game and Spurs/Warriors games...

**riffraff24** · 01-04-12, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Really pissed I didn't play my over leans in the Bulls/Pistons game and Spurs/Warriors games...

ah yes. hind site. the only time i been pickin winners lately lol.

**alamo** · 01-04-12, 10:50 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Don't you read my writeups? Unless I lock a play in at night when the lines open, I always check the ref assignments and mention them in my writeups. In this game, the refs were Richardson, Goble and Smith who all are pretty neutral with a slight under lean (as I mentioned in my writeup). Ugh...no offense, but that type of comment makes me think those writeups -- most of which are done from my phone while at work on weekdays -- are just a waste of time.

LTA, Im here to help as much as you and trying to offer some constructive comments. I am not giving out to you. All Im saying is that the Refs should be looked at a little deeper. with all due respects I watched the game tonight and to say it was a neutral officiating crew would be dubious. Even the announcers at one stage were saying "come on let them play". In nearly every qtr both teams were into penalty early. 51 personal fouls were called ! This wasnt even a dirty game. The refs were Teeing up guys for nothing. If I see this crew again I would make an adjustment to "whistle happy". For the record I believe your under was the right call. Its the refs that were the difference.Thats my point.

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by alamo

LTA, Im here to help as much as you and trying to offer some constructive comments. I am not giving out to you. All Im saying is that the Refs should be looked at a little deeper. with all due respects I watched the game tonight and to say it was a neutral officiating crew would be dubious. Even the announcers at one stage were saying "come on let them play". In nearly every qtr both teams were into penalty early. 51 personal fouls were called ! This wasnt even a dirty game. The refs were Teeing up guys for nothing. If I see this crew again I would make an adjustment to "whistle happy"

You can't base an opinion on a ref because of one game. You need to look at their statistics for their entire career.

One game does not a sample size make.

Let me ask you this:

If a ref has an o/u record of 30/50 in favor of the under for 5 years in a row but then opened this season reffing to 10 overs in a row, would you say that ref is an "over" leaning ref because of the 10 game sample size or an under leaning ref based on his previous 250 game sample size?

**alamo** · 01-04-12, 11:00 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

You can't base an opinion on a ref because of one game. You need to look at their statistics for their entire career. One game does not a sample size make. Let me ask you this: If a ref has an o/u record of 30/50 in favor of the under for 5 years in a row but then opened this season reffing to 10 overs in a row, would you say that ref is an "over" leaning ref because of the 10 game sample size or an under leaning ref based on his previous 250 game sample size?

I would say OVER in the 10 game sample size. Reason:- The ref has made adjustments to his decision making and perhaps to calls he has been advised on either missing or making in past seasons.

Let me flip it over to you. If the LA Lakers games have gone under in 30/50 games for 5 years but opened their season with everyone of their 10 games at the start of the season going Over would you lean over for their next game.

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 11:07 PM

Originally posted by alamo

I would say OVER in the 10 game sample size. Reason:- The ref has made adjustments to his decision making and perhaps to calls he has been advised on either missing or making in past seasons.

You can say that but you would be wrong according to the math. In my example, the 10 game sample size would be nothing more than a statistical anomaly with no way to prove that the 10 overs were correlated to the ref as opposed to the players or coaches involved.

The correct answer -- at least according to the math -- is that the 250 game sample size controls. Eventually, the odds say that the ref in my example would eventually regress to his seasonal averages.

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by alamo

I would say OVER in the 10 game sample size. Reason:- The ref has made adjustments to his decision making and perhaps to calls he has been advised on either missing or making in past seasons.

Let me flip it over to you. If the LA Lakers games have gone under in 30/50 games for 5 years but opened their season with everyone of their 10 games at the start of the season going Over would you lean over for their next game.

No way. I would have started playing the under around game 8 of their over streak because the odds say you have a better chance of an under hitting at that point than the over streak continuing.

I think you are putting way too much stock into recent "trends" with no statistical significance.

**alamo** · 01-04-12, 11:10 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

You can say that but you would be wrong according to the math. In my example, the 10 game sample size would be nothing more than a statistical anomaly with no way to prove that the 10 overs were correlated to the ref as opposed to the players or coaches involved. The correct answer -- at least according to the math -- is that the 250 game sample size controls. Eventually, the odds say that the ref in my example would eventually regress to his seasonal averages.

Ok, I will agree to disagree. We will move on. In other news were looking like a great night. Thanks as always for your time and write ups.
Hope we are still pals ?

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 11:12 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Ok, I will agree to disagree. We will move on. In other news were looking like a great night. Thanks as always for your time and write ups.
Hope we are still pals ?

We're just having a conversation bud, ofcourse we are still pals. You don't need to worry about that. We're just discussing business and giving people some things to think about.

Good luck bud

**BubbleTeaJelly** · 01-04-12, 11:17 PM

good night sir keep up the great work thanks for sharing

**alamo** · 01-04-12, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

We're just having a conversation bud, ofcourse we are still pals. You don't need to worry about that. We're just discussing business and giving people some things to think about.

Good luck bud

Cool. Thats the way I see it too. Thats what I like about you. We can have a heated argument with different views on probably very subjective things and at the end of the day still

and say

with no hard feelings unlike a lot of other people in their threads.

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by alamo

Cool. Thats the way I see it too. Thats what I like about you. We can have a heated argument with different views on probably very subjective things and at the end of the day still

and say

with no hard feelings unlike a lot of other people in their threads.

For sure bud...I didn't even think of that as a "heated argument." I just thought we were having a great discussion of two different viewpoints. We need more of that on SBR because that's how we all learn from each other and get better at our craft.

As they say, it's never personal...just business.

**Love The Action** · 01-04-12, 11:22 PM

Originally posted by BubbleTeaJelly

good night sir keep up the great work thanks for sharing

**GChild** · 01-04-12, 11:24 PM

Boooooom big night with you brother!!! 3-1 very nice!!

**southpaw74** · 01-04-12, 11:25 PM

Congrats on your west Virginia ov LTA....those big wins are fun when you don't even have to wait for the 2H

**brucethebear** · 01-04-12, 11:44 PM

Originally posted by Love The Action

I just thought we were having a great discussion of two different viewpoints. We need more of that on SBR because that's how we all learn from each other and get better at our craft.

+1.

Anyway, another day of solid profit. Missed the Nuggs, but cashed my other play

**killersweet** · 01-05-12, 12:44 AM

Very nice calls tonight LTA. Thanks for the picks

**Love The Action** · 01-05-12, 12:56 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/4/2012 Recap

3 - 1 = +1.9x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

20 - 14 = +5.95x

Just keep grinding....

**Donnie Brasco** · 01-05-12, 02:45 AM

Much deserved good night for you! Congrats, keep up the good work!

**NOREGRETS** · 01-05-12, 08:04 AM

Keep it man

**Love The Action** · 01-05-12, 08:05 AM

Thanks fellas

**Love The Action** · 01-05-12, 08:06 AM

Andrew Bogut - downgraded to doubtful for personal reasons.

Anyone know what is going on with Bogut? I really want to back the Bucks tonight....

**Speedy88** · 01-05-12, 08:16 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Andrew Bogut - downgraded to doubtful for personal reasons.

Anyone know what is going on with Bogut? I really want to back the Bucks tonight....

Me too, I was hoping Bogut would be back so they I could just ride the Bucks to a big win. But with him out, this could be a really ugly game. Kings are self imploding right now, and the Bucks are to be without Bogut and Dunleavy.

Haven't seen a line for this game yet, but it screams no play. I think the Bucks are a much more consistent and stable team, but without Bogut and Dunleavy they are not a very good team.

**Redscot** · 01-05-12, 08:33 AM

Originally posted by Love The Action

Andrew Bogut - downgraded to doubtful for personal reasons.

Anyone know what is going on with Bogut? I really want to back the Bucks tonight....

Herpes from the chick who gave it to Braun? Seriously though, can't find a thing, even checked the Aussie papers. Jackson/Jennings are a pretty erratic combo, can be lights out, but also have terrible nights.

On another note, what do you have the Dallas total pegged at? I can still grab it at 192 1/2.

**Swan4brownlow** · 01-05-12, 09:10 AM

Don't understand why with doubt over Bogut and others, the Milwaukee line is moving out?

**Love The Action** · 01-05-12, 09:38 AM

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/5/2012

Play #1

Lakers/Trail Blazers under (190) 1x (Locked)

I think the whole world loves the over in this game, but we know better. The Lakers approach these types of big matchup games with a half-court defensive-minded strategy because they know they cannot run and gun with people anymore. In their last game, they shot over 50% which was the first break-out performance of the season for Kobe. I expect a regression today going against Portland's 6th rated defense in DEFF. Even though Portland is playing a very fast PACE this season, currently ranked in the top 5 of the league, I think both teams will be happy to settle into a half-court defensive mindset and slow this one down. Both teams are coming in off of 1 days rest and will have their defensive legs under them. The Lakers are not playing great offensive basketball, but with Bynum clogging up the lane, they are playing superb defensive basketball which has kept them in all of their games. The refs are Mccutchon, Tiven and Fitzgerald. Tiven and Fitzgerald are younger refs without a ton of data, but Tiven does seem to lean over. Still, McCutchon is a reliable under guy and the crew chief so I am not overly concerned about tonight's refs. Last season, we had two early season games set in the low 190's and the two late season games set between 184 and 186. The early games went over and the late season games stayed under. In this case, Pinny opened at 191.5 and was quickly hit with under money driving down the number to the 190-189.5 range despite 75% of all wagers coming in on the under. Plus, this game had a nice amount of volume overnight getting over 2,000 wagers so I think this line movement is reliable RLM. I am taking a little bit of risk that over money knocks this one back up to the 191 range where I want it, but I am willing to take that risk because I don't think it happens. I think 190 will end up beating a closing number that ends around 188. I have this game set at 187 and we're getting 3 points of value. I think we see a slower pace from Portland tonight and both teams playing solid defenses. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

**Love The Action** · 01-05-12, 09:43 AM

Originally posted by Redscot

Herpes from the chick who gave it to Braun? Seriously though, can't find a thing, even checked the Aussie papers. Jackson/Jennings are a pretty erratic combo, can be lights out, but also have terrible nights.

On another note, what do you have the Dallas total pegged at? I can still grab it at 192 1/2.

I might play that SA/DAL game and would hold off for now.

**rocketman778** · 01-05-12, 09:51 AM

thanks for the plays last night!

**SlickRick1382** · 01-05-12, 09:52 AM

Originally posted by Speedy88

Me too, I was hoping Bogut would be back so they I could just ride the Bucks to a big win. But with him out, this could be a really ugly game. Kings are self imploding right now, and the Bucks are to be without Bogut and Dunleavy. Haven't seen a line for this game yet, but it screams no play. I think the Bucks are a much more consistent and stable team, but without Bogut and Dunleavy they are not a very good team.

Bucks without Bogut and Dunleavy seem like a horribly coached, disinterested team. The other night vs Utah was just down right embarrassing. Shooting 29% or 30% for the game, 9.5% from 3's (2-21). At what point do you think they'd stop chucking 3's?

I don't think I'd ever bet on them without Bogut in the lineup....

**Trivial** · 01-05-12, 10:03 AM

Thanks LTA. Only could get under 189.5. BOL.

**dynasty27** · 01-05-12, 10:26 AM

Thanks for the research and time you put in LTA, you have taught me to make investments instead of gambles in this business.

Keep up the solid work

**BigBurk** · 01-05-12, 10:28 AM

Hmm, 5dimes line is at 189.5 now also. But I'm not too sure about this one..

Out of the three home games for the Blazers only one ended up with a total below 189.5 (against the Kings), with the Blazers playing b2b after having played Philly the night before. The other two went way over the current line (Denver and Philly). Now I know these two teams can not be compared with the current Lakers, who twice went under the total in away games scoring 189 and 191 points , but I still feel this one is set a bit to low.

I feel safer betting the spread (-3 Portland) with the Lakers not covering their previous away matches and Portland covering two out of three as home favs (the other one pushed). Any insight?