LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

my book is showing 197 now.

just beat it.

Sweet...let's cash it.

[jck]

lets grind it up ltas.. keep em comming bro ..youre doing good we will break out of this

[Love The Action]

lets grind it up lts.. keep em comming bro ..youre doing good we will break out of this

Break out of what

[jck]

these small unit gains ..will be bigger gains

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/4/2012

Play #1

Bobcats/Knicks over (195) 1x (Locked)

Here we have two teams ranked in the top 13 in PACE with Charlotte at 6th overall and NY at 13th. I generally do not like to back teams on the over two nights in a row, but it's not like Charlotte shot lights out against the Cavs -- they were mediocre at best and still hit 100 because of the pace. Even though this will be the Bobcats second game of a b2b, their legs should not be so fatigued that it should affect their shooting or pace. However, as we know, they are not interested in playing defense this season and that's a good combo to go with the Knicks for an over. It's clear to me that Dantoni is resorting to his offense first mentality despite his comments to the contrary after acquiring Chandler. The Knicks themselves should be getting Stoudemire back and perhaps even Shumpert. That may be the offense they have lacking. Either way, however, I do not see the Knicks shooting under 36% two games in row. It's time for the Knicks to revert to their shooting average and hit mid 40%'s or better. Last season, this matchup elicited totals of between 201, 204 and 204.5, going over in two of the three games. The one game that stayed under, still hit 194 points. This game opened up at 193 and was immediately hit with over money driving the number up to 195 which is where the total was at when one of my locals opened up for tomorrow's card. I have this game set at 199.5, giving us over two field goals of value. That's also where I expect this one to close. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x and I may add a bit more when/if I get confirmation on Stoudemire who has been upgraded to probable. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Heat under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

Both teams had a day of rest and they should be primed to play some defense and live up to their top 10 DEFF rankings. However, before last game against the tired nets when they shot 52%, the pacers offense has been abysmal. Both defenses are top tier and can limit these offenses despite the heat's fast pace. Indy will slow it down and try to win the half court game. The refs richardson, goble and smith are neutral with a slight under lean. This game opened at 195 and took over money up to 197.5 where it started to drop at pinny. I have this game set at 193.5 and I love the value as indy will not shoot over 50% against this rested heat defense coming off the atlanta loss. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Suns/Mavericks under (196.5) 1x (Locked)

These are not the same offensive run and gun suns. They are ranked in bottom 5 in PACE and bottom 10 in OEFF. However, they are playing better defense and I think the day of rest will help both teams shore up some defensive holes. With the mavs also in the bottom ten of OEFF, I think we see slower half court game today. The refs are decidedly under refs in wood, rush and especially workman. I have this game set at 192, giving us 4pts of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

these small unit gains ..will be bigger gains

Remember bud, its all about the long term. While I would obviously love big unit gains, I am happy grinding any amount of daily profit because over the course of the season, it all adds up. Focus your handicapping on the long term, don't worry about one day, week or even month. Slowly but surely is the way to do it. When you get greedy, that's what the books want and typically when you lose.

Good luck tonight

[jck]

Thats not my point
My point is to keep the winners comming coz i think your average profit shoud be above where it is now
not much above but definately above from here

[r1kkie]

Remember bud, its all about the long term. While I would obviously love big unit gains, I am happy grinding any amount of daily profit because over the course of the season, it all adds up. Focus your handicapping on the long term, don't worry about one day, week or even month. Slowly but surely is the way to do it. When you get greedy, that's what the books want and typically when you lose. Good luck tonight

Take his word for it, I learnd that the hard way.

[blackberry_juice]

LTA what do you think of the Over in the Philly-NO game? its at 181.5 right now. Hornets top scorer Gordon is questionable, while their top defender Ariza is out. Philly is #1 in offensive efficiency, top 5 in true shooting and eff fg%, and play at an above average pace. The only thing scaring me off is New Orleans plays sooo slow, currently 2nd slowest in the league. Any lean here?

[jck]

how so r1k so we all know

[r1kkie]

how so r1k so we all know

???

[NOREGRETS]

MIAMI (AP)—Heat guard Dwyane Wade has two problems: A sore left foot and a jammed game schedule.
And with Miami finishing one run of three games in four nights on Wednesday — and simultaneously starting another of those grueling stretches—Wade may be taking a night off to try and heal.
Wade did not participate in Miami’s shootaround practice Wednesday morning, and teammates were bracing for the likelihood that he will not play against the Indiana Pacers. The foot injury originally flared up in the first half of Miami’s win at Charlotte on Dec. 28, a night where Wade returned to hit the gamewinner with 2.9 seconds left.

“We want to make sure we can treat it and move on from it,” Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. “We’re trying to weigh how he feels, whether if he plays (Wednesday) will that make it more sore” Thursday.
Miami visits Atlanta on Thursday night.
Wade has averaged 17.7 points and 7 assists in the three games since getting hurt, but shot just 4 of 17 in a loss to Atlanta on Monday night, wincing at times because of the tender foot.
“As much as I want to be out there, my team needs me to be Dwyane Wade and not somebody else on the floor,” he said.
Wade came in to work Tuesday for extensive treatment, and has been bothered by foot issues in the past. Cutting and quickness are two staples of his game— “cat moves,” Spoelstra called them—and the concern over the foot has limited him of late in both of those areas.
With a condensed 66-game schedule this season, there simply aren’t many off days to heal, so already players around the league have been sitting out some games where in past seasons they might have played.
“You saw the same with Paul Pierce,” Heat forward LeBron James said, referring to Boston’s captain who missed three games with a sore heel to start the year, including one against Miami. “I bet if it was a playoff series Paul could have started the season. But he took his time and now he’s back in the lineup. With D having a foot problem, he has to be cautious about it. We’d rather get him as close to 100 percent healthy now than let it linger.”
Wade said one of the toughest issues that this particular injury presents is that he never knows when pain will flare up. Sometimes it happens on cuts, sometimes when he leaps, sometimes when he lands.
“Just got to deal with it,” Wade said. “I know my feet are a big part of my game … and that’s one area I never want to hurt. I’ve got to get it taken care of.”

[NOREGRETS]

GREENBURGH, N.Y. (AP)—The New York Knicks are close to getting back some sorely needed scoring punch.
Amare Stoudemire and Iman Shumpert could return from injuries Wednesday, two nights after the Knicks struggled to find any offense beyond Carmelo Anthony while digging themselves a huge first-half hole in a 90-85 loss to Toronto.
Stoudemire and Shumpert took part in a light practice Tuesday and then played in a 3-on-3 workout on a short court. The Knicks say both players will be game-time decisions against Charlotte.
“I can’t wait,” Stoudemire said. “It was tough watching last night, so I can’t wait to get back out there to really give us that push that we need.”

Stoudemire has missed two straight games with a sprained left ankle, while Shumpert has been sidelined since spraining a right knee ligament in the season opener on Christmas. Without them, the Knicks shot just 36 percent Monday.
New York is averaging 93 points, wasting its improved defensive performance. Coach Mike D’Antoni knows his team must play better but believes injuries have made that difficult, noting the lineups he had on the floor at certain times against the Raptors.
“I know we played bad, we didn’t play great. And I know we lost a game we should have won,” he said. “But again, we’ve just got to hang in there, get through this period, get guys healthy, and then see what holes we have and see what we have to add to fix them.
“We had an 11-point (second) quarter,” he added. “And if you look at guys, we just didn’t have a scorer out there, and when Amare comes back, that’s taken care of.”
Stoudemire, despite struggling in his first three games, still averages 17 points. The Knicks have been starting second-rounder Josh Harrellson in place of the All-Star forward.
Shumpert, their first-round pick, seems well ahead of schedule. The Knicks said he could miss two to four weeks when he was hurt by Boston’s Chris Wilcox crashing into his knee after scoring 11 points in his NBA debut.
But Shumpert always figured he could beat that timetable and believes after pushing himself before and after the practice Tuesday that he still will.
“I’m young,” the 21-year-old guard said. “I’m pretty healthy all the time, so I’ve bounced back from some injuries pretty quick. I was kind of leaning on my youth to get me back quick, and I don’t have any pain today. We’ll see how it feels tomorrow.”
Shumpert can play either guard spot. D’Antoni tried to downplay expectations given how little NBA action Shumpert has seen, but with Baron Davis still not ready and guard play a weakness, the Knicks need whatever the rookie can give them.
“Iman, believe it or not, he’s kind of a game-changer for us coming off the bench, the energy that he brings, offensively, defensively,” Anthony said. “Still a long a way to go for him, still a learning process for him, but for the most part that’s something that we’ve been missing, that energy level coming off the bench. He brings that, so we’re excited to have him back.”

[YOUNGBUCK]

Sixers LTA?

[Love The Action]

how so r1k so we all know

What r1 is probably saying is that he might have used improper money management in the past looking for the "big score" and did not find success with that method.

[BigBurk]

Wow, Bobcats -Knicks total is set at 199 right now. Don't see any value in playing the over at that line!

[r1kkie]

What r1 is probably saying is that he might have used improper money management in the past looking for the "big score" and did not find success with that method.

Never again...

[NOREGRETS]

LTA, are you still contemplating giving a big shot play?

[Love The Action]

Sixers LTA?

Not sure yet...what up with gordon?

[Love The Action]

LTA, are you still contemplating giving a big shot play?

No big play tonight...

[Love The Action]

Anyone know if denver will be at full strength tonight?

[blackberry_juice]

Anyone know if denver will be at full strength tonight?

The latest...Via Nuggets Truehoop twitter: 24kGoldenChild Kalen Deremo
"Nene is questionable tonight. Turns out that foot injury wasn't just a much needed rest. Karl sounded despondent when talking about it."
27 minutes ago

From what I've seen, sounds like even if Nene does go, he won't be 100%.

Any lean on the total or side of NO/PHI tonight LTA?

[YOUNGBUCK]

Not sure yet...what up with gordon?

still listed as questionable still like philly reagardless though

[Krazymojo]

t-wolves -4?

[BigBurk]

t-wolves -4?

I'd say yes.

[Exxpresso]

Hey LTA, what do you think about the Cavaliers ML at + 175 tonight ?

[SUPREME]

Wolves with no barea? Grizz played well last night without Randolph...

[brucethebear]

Knicks total hit 200 at my local. (edit - played it last night at 195.5 with LTA.)
Also like GSW +7.5 tonight. Gonobili out makes this a really good spot for GSW.

[mailman07009]

Knicks over still a play @ 200???

[Redscot]

Just a note to thread members. LTA always states in his write-ups what number he has the game set at. For instance he has the Knicks game set at 199.5. He has done his work and shared it with us. It is up to us to decide whether there is value left at the moment we lay our wager. IMO if the line is now at 200, that would be a no play. Good luck all .

[815Sox]

Just a note to thread members. LTA always states in his write-ups what number he has the game set at. For instance he has the Knicks game set at 199.5. He has done his work and shared it with us. It is up to us to decide whether there is value left at the moment we lay our wager. IMO if the line is now at 200, that would be a no play. Good luck all .

I always like to say, the most a posted play should do is alert you to a potential play. Its up to you to do the research to see if you agree with the play. LTA is one of the best on SBR don't get me wrong, but you are the one that pushes the button/makes the phone call.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/4/2012

Play #1

Bobcats/Knicks over (195) 1x (Locked)

Here we have two teams ranked in the top 13 in PACE with Charlotte at 6th overall and NY at 13th. I generally do not like to back teams on the over two nights in a row, but it's not like Charlotte shot lights out against the Cavs -- they were mediocre at best and still hit 100 because of the pace. Even though this will be the Bobcats second game of a b2b, their legs should not be so fatigued that it should affect their shooting or pace. However, as we know, they are not interested in playing defense this season and that's a good combo to go with the Knicks for an over. It's clear to me that Dantoni is resorting to his offense first mentality despite his comments to the contrary after acquiring Chandler. The Knicks themselves should be getting Stoudemire back and perhaps even Shumpert. That may be the offense they have lacking. Either way, however, I do not see the Knicks shooting under 36% two games in row. It's time for the Knicks to revert to their shooting average and hit mid 40%'s or better. Last season, this matchup elicited totals of between 201, 204 and 204.5, going over in two of the three games. The one game that stayed under, still hit 194 points. This game opened up at 193 and was immediately hit with over money driving the number up to 195 which is where the total was at when one of my locals opened up for tomorrow's card. I have this game set at 199.5, giving us over two field goals of value. That's also where I expect this one to close. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x and I may add a bit more when/if I get confirmation on Stoudemire who has been upgraded to probable. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Heat under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

Both teams had a day of rest and they should be primed to play some defense and live up to their top 10 DEFF rankings. However, before last game against the tired nets when they shot 52%, the pacers offense has been abysmal. Both defenses are top tier and can limit these offenses despite the heat's fast pace. Indy will slow it down and try to win the half court game. The refs richardson, goble and smith are neutral with a slight under lean. This game opened at 195 and took over money up to 197.5 where it started to drop at pinny. I have this game set at 193.5 and I love the value as indy will not shoot over 50% against this rested heat defense coming off the atlanta loss. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Suns/Mavericks under (196.5) 1x (Locked)

These are not the same offensive run and gun suns. They are ranked in bottom 5 in PACE and bottom 10 in OEFF. However, they are playing better defense and I think the day of rest will help both teams shore up some defensive holes. With the mavs also in the bottom ten of OEFF, I think we see slower half court game today. The refs are decidedly under refs in wood, rush and especially workman. I have this game set at 192, giving us 4pts of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Nuggets (-11) 1x (Locked)

It looks like most of the market is carrying the hook, buy one of my locals overadjusted down to 11 for a bit. As soon as I saw 11, this play was a no brainer as I was prepared to play it at 12 if need be. The kings are in a terrible fatigue spot playing their 2nd game of a b2b and 4th in 5 nights. Plus, the altidude will not help. The nuggz may have nene and lawson should play despite an illness. The nuggz have the better offense and their defense is far superior to the kings. I wish the kings won yesteday, but it won't really matter as this is a great situational spot for denver. I have the nuggets set at -14.5 tonight, giving us over 3 points of value. For the foregoing reasons, I am rolling with the nuggets for 1x. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/4/2012

Play #1

Bobcats/Knicks over (195) 1x (Locked)

Here we have two teams ranked in the top 13 in PACE with Charlotte at 6th overall and NY at 13th. I generally do not like to back teams on the over two nights in a row, but it's not like Charlotte shot lights out against the Cavs -- they were mediocre at best and still hit 100 because of the pace. Even though this will be the Bobcats second game of a b2b, their legs should not be so fatigued that it should affect their shooting or pace. However, as we know, they are not interested in playing defense this season and that's a good combo to go with the Knicks for an over. It's clear to me that Dantoni is resorting to his offense first mentality despite his comments to the contrary after acquiring Chandler. The Knicks themselves should be getting Stoudemire back and perhaps even Shumpert. That may be the offense they have lacking. Either way, however, I do not see the Knicks shooting under 36% two games in row. It's time for the Knicks to revert to their shooting average and hit mid 40%'s or better. Last season, this matchup elicited totals of between 201, 204 and 204.5, going over in two of the three games. The one game that stayed under, still hit 194 points. This game opened up at 193 and was immediately hit with over money driving the number up to 195 which is where the total was at when one of my locals opened up for tomorrow's card. I have this game set at 199.5, giving us over two field goals of value. That's also where I expect this one to close. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x and I may add a bit more when/if I get confirmation on Stoudemire who has been upgraded to probable. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Heat under (197.5) 1x (Locked)

Both teams had a day of rest and they should be primed to play some defense and live up to their top 10 DEFF rankings. However, before last game against the tired nets when they shot 52%, the pacers offense has been abysmal. Both defenses are top tier and can limit these offenses despite the heat's fast pace. Indy will slow it down and try to win the half court game. The refs richardson, goble and smith are neutral with a slight under lean. This game opened at 195 and took over money up to 197.5 where it started to drop at pinny. I have this game set at 193.5 and I love the value as indy will not shoot over 50% against this rested heat defense coming off the atlanta loss. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Suns/Mavericks under (196.5) 1x (Locked)

These are not the same offensive run and gun suns. They are ranked in bottom 5 in PACE and bottom 10 in OEFF. However, they are playing better defense and I think the day of rest will help both teams shore up some defensive holes. With the mavs also in the bottom ten of OEFF, I think we see slower half court game today. The refs are decidedly under refs in wood, rush and especially workman. I have this game set at 192, giving us 4pts of value. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #4

Nuggets (-11) 1x (Locked)

It looks like most of the market is carrying the hook, buy one of my locals overadjusted down to 11 for a bit. As soon as I saw 11, this play was a no brainer as I was prepared to play it at 12 if need be. The kings are in a terrible fatigue spot playing their 2nd game of a b2b and 4th in 5 nights. Plus, the altidude will not help. The nuggz may have nene and lawson should play despite an illness. The nuggz have the better offense and their defense is far superior to the kings. I wish the kings won yesteday, but it won't really matter as this is a great situational spot for denver. I have the nuggets set at -14.5 tonight, giving us over 3 points of value. For the foregoing reasons, I am rolling with the nuggets for 1x. Good luck.

Card is final at the above 4 plays. Time to head home from a long day of work (and capping lol). Good luck tonight gentlemen.

[Krazymojo]

any leans on the clippers game?

[alamo]

Guys, we can look at all the stats in the world but they all become meaningless if we dont look at the most important and most OVERLOOKED stat - Who refs the games!
Example was tonight - The Miami game had 67 free throws, yes SIXTY SEVEN! It means our over is all but dead. The Pacers were horrible offensively tonight (83pts) but got a staggering 39 free throws. This should have gone easily under the posted total but alas the zebras decided otherwise. I really believe we need to look at ref assignments as a key when we our handicapping these games.