LTA's NBA Plays

[ashtray13]

I am leaving for the morning and will be back later this afternoon. I have quite a few games with strong leans and will be locking in more games throughout the day. I will try to post them as soon as I lock them if at all possible. Otherwise, I will post them upon my return. Good luck and Happy New Year.

Hi LTA,

Happy New Year to you. I've been following your posts and I finally decide to register and post to say thanks!

I just had one question. I follow your picks but because you post them at different times during the day I miss some of them and can't decide to tail them or not. Is it possible for your to tweet your picks so we get notifications, I'm sure a lot more people than you know would follow you!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/1/2012

Play #1

Grizzlies/Bulls under (189) 1x (Locked)

Bottom line, facing two tough defenses, I dont see either team shooting over 50% like they both did in their last game. Rose will get his mvp award and might press a little and this is the Bulls' first home game after a long road trip making this a good under spot. Both teams tend to have shooting issues against defenses like these and I like think we see a slower paced game, especially in the 2h. I have this game set at 186.5 and I'm rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Lakers/Nuggets over (197) 1x (Locked)

Missed getting 196.5, but this works. Glad the wife was driving. If the Lakes shot just 30% from three yesterday's game flies over. I have this one at 203 and I'm rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.

Correlated Action Wager (Not for records win or lose)

Nuggets ML(-200)/over (197)(-120) 0.40x (+173) (Locked)


I think the b2b hurts the lakers more. Good luck.

[upscope]

I just had one question. I follow your picks but because you post them at different times during the day I miss some of them and can't decide to tail them or not. Is it possible for your to tweet your picks so we get notifications, I'm sure a lot more people than you know would follow you!

Would you like LTA to stop over & do your dishes as well?? Maybe clean out your garage & mow the lawn??

[ashtray13]

Would you like LTA to stop over & do your dishes as well?? Maybe clean out your garage & mow the lawn??

Sure! My house is pretty messy right now..

Anyway it was just a request I thought of, I didn't mean to offend anyone!

[ashtray13]

Would you like LTA to stop over & do your dishes as well?? Maybe clean out your garage & mow the lawn??

Sure! My house is pretty messy right now..

Anyway it was just a request I thought of, I didn't mean to offend anyone!

[upscope]

Sure! My house is pretty messy right now..

Anyway it was just a request I thought of, I didn't mean to offend anyone!

You didn't offend anyone buddy.....it was just a joke~

[Donnie Brasco]

Lets keep this forum on the up and up boys, happy new year!

[Donnie Brasco]

What else u got? Card complete?

[Swan4brownlow]

Bulls Memphis unders looking on track but denver lakers overs looks shot

[alamo]

Two teams are combined 1/19 from 3 point land. They are now 2/42 for the two first halves they have played.

[pacocn]

Grizzlies must've had a great New Years Eve
in Chi town.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/1/2012 Recap

1 - 1 = -0.1x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

13 - 9 = +4x

Cant believe that Nuggz/Lakers game did not go over. How can the Lakers and Denver miss so many 3pt shots in b2b games. Generally, you will see an adjustment in b2b games with the same matchup. Very frustrating but we move onto Monday's card. Good luck.

[Donnie Brasco]

New year, new outcomes. Good luck brother!

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Celtics over (185) 1x (Locked)

I also think the Wizards cover the 12 points, but I'm taking the over for sure. This one started to move, so I'm not going to get greedy and I will settle for 185. I am hoping there is no move down the road toward the under, but I really don't think that will be the case. This game sets up as a pretty solid over opportunity as we are coming off a game yesterday that ended at 180 with some factors that could have helped this one get a few more points. Boston has not played its usual great defense this season and both teams find themselves in the bottom of defensive efficiency numbers. I think this games set up as a quicker paced game as I expect the b2b tired legs to show themselves more on defense than offense, especially for Boston. Even though Boston hit 50% of their shots yesterday, I don't see an uninterested Wizards defense perform any better today and Boston should at least hit over 45%. However, I do expect a better offensive performance from the Wizards from the field, three point land and free throw line. This game opened up at 184.5 at Pinny yesterday, took some early under money and then steamed all day on the over up to 187. The game ended at 180 yet Pinny opened today at 185 and never adjusted. Pinny started to juice the over at -108 and I jumped on it as that typically indicates a jump is coming. Sure enough, as I check the board while typing this writeup the total is up to 185.5 and looks to be steaming. Make no mistake, Pinny's non-adjustment is telling here. I am this game set at 187.5 and I will take a shot on the over for 1x. Good luck.

[Rolo1984]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Celtics over (185) 1x (Locked)

I also think the Wizards cover the 12 points, but I'm taking the over for sure. This one started to move, so I'm not going to get greedy and I will settle for 185. I am hoping there is no move down the road toward the under, but I really don't think that will be the case. This game sets up as a pretty solid over opportunity as we are coming off a game yesterday that ended at 180 with some factors that could have helped this one get a few more points. Boston has not played its usual great defense this season and both teams find themselves in the bottom of defensive efficiency numbers. I think this games set up as a quicker paced game as I expect the b2b tired legs to show themselves more on defense than offense, especially for Boston. Even though Boston hit 50% of their shots yesterday, I don't see an uninterested Wizards defense perform any better today and Boston should at least hit over 45%. However, I do expect a better offensive performance from the Wizards from the field, three point land and free throw line. This game opened up at 184.5 at Pinny yesterday, took some early under money and then steamed all day on the over up to 187. The game ended at 180 yet Pinny opened today at 185 and never adjusted. Pinny started to juice the over at -108 and I jumped on it as that typically indicates a jump is coming. Sure enough, as I check the board while typing this writeup the total is up to 185.5 and looks to be steaming. Make no mistake, Pinny's non-adjustment is telling here. I am this game set at 187.5 and I will take a shot on the over for 1x. Good luck.

what odds do you have since the line is 187.5@pinny

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Celtics over (185) 1x (Locked)

I also think the Wizards cover the 12 points, but I'm taking the over for sure. This one started to move, so I'm not going to get greedy and I will settle for 185. I am hoping there is no move down the road toward the under, but I really don't think that will be the case. This game sets up as a pretty solid over opportunity as we are coming off a game yesterday that ended at 180 with some factors that could have helped this one get a few more points. Boston has not played its usual great defense this season and both teams find themselves in the bottom of defensive efficiency numbers. I think this games set up as a quicker paced game as I expect the b2b tired legs to show themselves more on defense than offense, especially for Boston. Even though Boston hit 50% of their shots yesterday, I don't see an uninterested Wizards defense perform any better today and Boston should at least hit over 45%. However, I do expect a better offensive performance from the Wizards from the field, three point land and free throw line. This game opened up at 184.5 at Pinny yesterday, took some early under money and then steamed all day on the over up to 187. The game ended at 180 yet Pinny opened today at 185 and never adjusted. Pinny started to juice the over at -108 and I jumped on it as that typically indicates a jump is coming. Sure enough, as I check the board while typing this writeup the total is up to 185.5 and looks to be steaming. Make no mistake, Pinny's non-adjustment is telling here. I am this game set at 187.5 and I will take a shot on the over for 1x. Good luck.

Just to add to this writeup a bit, the refs are Zarba, Willard and Roe, all three of which have strong under leans, both historical and recently. Last year, these three refs were top 10 strongest o/u records favoring the over and especially Zarba, who was an over machine all year and especially the playoffs. We had this same crew in the Knicks/Kings over and it worked out well, so I am hoping we get similar results today.

[Love The Action]

what odds do you have since the line is 187.5@pinny

What odds? -110 ofcourse. I generally don't bet NBA totals over -110 except in very rare circumstances when I will buy the hook up to -110.

[Love The Action]

I really regret not taking the under at 198.5 in the Heat/Hawks game. Now it has steamed all the way down to 195. Tough to give up 3 points on a total when the game involves the high-paced Heat (which is a change from last year that everyone should note) and the offensively efficient Hawks who have really started the season very well on the offensive end of the court.

[Love The Action]

There was a pretty slick "Walters-esqu" move with the Raptors/Knicks total. That one opened up at 197, was immediately hit with some under money which ended up knocking down over the course of an hour to 194.5, and then boom, they rocked it right back up to 197.5 with some huge bets. This was clearly the case of big hitter looking to get a better number on the over and/or trying to get a middle.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Celtics over (185) 1x (Locked)

I also think the Wizards cover the 12 points, but I'm taking the over for sure. This one started to move, so I'm not going to get greedy and I will settle for 185. I am hoping there is no move down the road toward the under, but I really don't think that will be the case. This game sets up as a pretty solid over opportunity as we are coming off a game yesterday that ended at 180 with some factors that could have helped this one get a few more points. Boston has not played its usual great defense this season and both teams find themselves in the bottom of defensive efficiency numbers. I think this games set up as a quicker paced game as I expect the b2b tired legs to show themselves more on defense than offense, especially for Boston. Even though Boston hit 50% of their shots yesterday, I don't see an uninterested Wizards defense perform any better today and Boston should at least hit over 45%. However, I do expect a better offensive performance from the Wizards from the field, three point land and free throw line. This game opened up at 184.5 at Pinny yesterday, took some early under money and then steamed all day on the over up to 187. The game ended at 180 yet Pinny opened today at 185 and never adjusted. Pinny started to juice the over at -108 and I jumped on it as that typically indicates a jump is coming. Sure enough, as I check the board while typing this writeup the total is up to 185.5 and looks to be steaming. Make no mistake, Pinny's non-adjustment is telling here. The refs are Zarba, Willard and Roe, all three of which have strong under leans, both historical and recently. Last year, these three refs were top 10 strongest o/u records favoring the over and especially Zarba, who was an over machine all year and especially the playoffs. We had this same crew in the Knicks/Kings over and it worked out well, so I am hoping we get similar results today. I am this game set at 187.5 and I will take a shot on the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Nets under (183.5) 1x (Locked)

I think this one has topped out since Pinny just moved to -109 on the under at 183, so I'm locking this one in now and getting the hook as available at Legends and other outlets. Both teams are in a fatigue spot, but the Nets are much worse with this their 4th game in 5 nights and second of a b2b. The Pacers were off yesterday and I expect their defense to suffocate the same Nets team who have struggled to score against the weak defenses of the Wiz and Cleveland, much less a defense as efficient as the Pacers. Other top defense like Orlando and the Hawks kept this Nets offense under 80. The Pacers are currently the top rate team in defensive efficiency and the Nets play a snails pace as they are bottom 5 in overall Pace. Even though the Nets defense is horrible, the Pacers have struggled this year and are very inefficient on the offensive end. Therefore, I don't expect either team to have a big scoring output. The refs are Garretson, Dalen and Lane, all three of which have a historic under lean, especially Garretson who is known to swallow his whistle at times. I have this game set at 179 and we're getting over 4 points of variance between my number and what the books are offering. That is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

[dlunc3]

Good stuff here man. I'll be the first to admit, I am not good at totals, and therefore do not bet them in any sport. My strengths are picking sides, so that is what I normally stick with. I have been keeping an eye on your thread here for a few weeks though. Looks like you have a good things going here and seem very knowledgable on this subject. I plan on tailing this season, as from what ive seen, you are in for a profitable year. So best of luck. Win or lose, thank you for the work you are putting in for SBR.

[jas19illini]

Man you have some good books, bc every total you post my book is almost always 1-1.5 pts different....not in my favor.

[Love The Action]

Man you have some good books, bc every total you post my book is almost always 1-1.5 pts different....not in my favor.

It's not about the book, it's about the ability to (1) predict where the line is going and (2) read the lines in such a way that you can anticipate when a line move will occur. I have worked very hard over the years at perfecting my ability to predict line movement and the requisite timing needed to get the best numbers. You need to know where the line is going and when to jump on a good number. For example, Pinny juiced the Wiz/Boston over at 185 -108, so I locked it in as soon as I saw that. Sure enough, about five minutes later the steam hit bouncing that one up to 186 and then 187. I had it posted when the line was still at 185.5 and starting to steam, but if you didn't see it right at that time, you missed the move.

In the other game, you can still get 183 for the Nets/Pacers total at 5d and quite a few other books. Pinny dropped down to 182.5. I was waiting for the best number in that one and was actually going to jump on it earlier today at 181. However, I noticed Pinny was continually juicing the over indicating that it was not done moving in that direction. Therefore, I waited until it topped out at 183.5 at my one of my local books which follows Legends lines and jumped on it as soon as I saw Pinny start to juice the under at 183.

You will find that I beat the closing number over 75% of the time and whether in MLB, NBA, NFL or NCAAF, the number tends to move in the direction of my wager. That is something that I pride myself on and have worked very hard to accomplish that goal via both a statistical model that helps me predict where the line moves and an innate ability to read lines on totals. In addition, I am off work today and have been watching the lines all morning waiting to pounce on certain numbers when I see them. I usually have to work which generally results in me putting in more plays overnight before the morning line moves. Keep an out for that late tonight for towmorrow's plays since I return to work tomorrow.

With all that said, however, NBA totals tend to fluctuate. Therefore, just keep an eye on the plays you like and there is a chance it will move back in that direction. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Good stuff here man. I'll be the first to admit, I am not good at totals, and therefore do not bet them in any sport. My strengths are picking sides, so that is what I normally stick with. I have been keeping an eye on your thread here for a few weeks though. Looks like you have a good things going here and seem very knowledgable on this subject. I plan on tailing this season, as from what ive seen, you are in for a profitable year. So best of luck. Win or lose, thank you for the work you are putting in for SBR.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 Regular Season 1/2/2012

Play #1

Wizards/Celtics over (185) 1x (Locked)

I also think the Wizards cover the 12 points, but I'm taking the over for sure. This one started to move, so I'm not going to get greedy and I will settle for 185. I am hoping there is no move down the road toward the under, but I really don't think that will be the case. This game sets up as a pretty solid over opportunity as we are coming off a game yesterday that ended at 180 with some factors that could have helped this one get a few more points. Boston has not played its usual great defense this season and both teams find themselves in the bottom of defensive efficiency numbers. I think this games set up as a quicker paced game as I expect the b2b tired legs to show themselves more on defense than offense, especially for Boston. Even though Boston hit 50% of their shots yesterday, I don't see an uninterested Wizards defense perform any better today and Boston should at least hit over 45%. However, I do expect a better offensive performance from the Wizards from the field, three point land and free throw line. This game opened up at 184.5 at Pinny yesterday, took some early under money and then steamed all day on the over up to 187. The game ended at 180 yet Pinny opened today at 185 and never adjusted. Pinny started to juice the over at -108 and I jumped on it as that typically indicates a jump is coming. Sure enough, as I check the board while typing this writeup the total is up to 185.5 and looks to be steaming. Make no mistake, Pinny's non-adjustment is telling here. The refs are Zarba, Willard and Roe, all three of which have strong under leans, both historical and recently. Last year, these three refs were top 10 strongest o/u records favoring the over and especially Zarba, who was an over machine all year and especially the playoffs. We had this same crew in the Knicks/Kings over and it worked out well, so I am hoping we get similar results today. I am this game set at 187.5 and I will take a shot on the over for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Pacers/Nets under (183.5) 1x (Locked)

I think this one has topped out since Pinny just moved to -109 on the under at 183, so I'm locking this one in now and getting the hook as available at Legends and other outlets. Both teams are in a fatigue spot, but the Nets are much worse with this their 4th game in 5 nights and second of a b2b. The Pacers were off yesterday and I expect their defense to suffocate the same Nets team who have struggled to score against the weak defenses of the Wiz and Cleveland, much less a defense as efficient as the Pacers. Other top defense like Orlando and the Hawks kept this Nets offense under 80. The Pacers are currently the top rate team in defensive efficiency and the Nets play a snails pace as they are bottom 5 in overall Pace. Even though the Nets defense is horrible, the Pacers have struggled this year and are very inefficient on the offensive end. Therefore, I don't expect either team to have a big scoring output. The refs are Garretson, Dalen and Lane, all three of which have a historic under lean, especially Garretson who is known to swallow his whistle at times. I have this game set at 179 and we're getting over 4 points of variance between my number and what the books are offering. That is too much value to pass up and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Bucks (+5)(-120) 1.5x (Locked)

Here's a spot where I think buying the hook is important as covers in Denver are always hard to come by. However, I love this play and I'm going to play the Bucks for 1.5x because of this is such a tough spot for Denver. First, you have Bucks coming off double revenge in this game against a Denver team that beat them handily both games last year. Second, you have a Denver team that just played two games against the respected Lakers and had to really grind out points against the vaunted Lakers defense (as we well know from losing on the over twice). This game is not as high profile as the Lakers games were and we may not have Denver's full attention tonight. Third, and definitely most importantly, Denver is in a HUGE fatigue spot today because this is their third game in a row and the last leg of a b2b2b2b quirk in the schedule. In addition, before playing the Lakers for two straight games, they played Portland -- another top level team -- one day before the Lakers series started. Therefore, in addition to this being a b2b2b2b spot, this will also be there 4th game in five nights and 5th game in six nights if you factor in the Utah game on December 28th. Denver has now played games on 12/28, 12/29, 12/31, 1/1 and 1/2 -- that is truly a brutal stretch of games and I believe they are tired. Now, lets look at the Bucks who are playing solid defense as usual under Scott Skiles (ranked 2nd in defensive efficiency), but who are actually playing much improved on offense as well. The Bucks now have a healthy Bogut and Delfino to help the inside/outside scoring game to go along with the addition of Jackson which takes some of the scoring load off of Jennings. Plus, we have to remember that the Bucks get Mbah a Moute back today to help out their other role players in Dunleavy, Sanders, Livingston, Gooden and Illasyova. Finally, the Bucks are in a great spot because they are coming off 2 days of rest. Most people like to back Denver at home because of the thin air advantage. However, with Denver in such a bad fatigue spot and Milwaukee coming off two days of rest, I think this sets up perfect for a Milwaukee cover. The line opened up at +5.5 on Pinny, was immediately bet down to +5 and now sits at +4.5, despite over 65% of all bets coming in on Denver. That is very solid movement in favor of the Bucks. I have the Bucks set at +2 and by buying the hook, we are getting a full 3 points of value. I love the value in such a great spot to fade Denver and I am taking the Bucks for 1.5x. Good luck.

[BigBurk]

Glad to see you on the under at the Pacers/Nets game as well, a very strong play imo.

I am on the under 188 at the Boston game though... BOL anyway tonight on that one

[Love The Action]

Hi LTA,

Happy New Year to you. I've been following your posts and I finally decide to register and post to say thanks!

I just had one question. I follow your picks but because you post them at different times during the day I miss some of them and can't decide to tail them or not. Is it possible for your to tweet your picks so we get notifications, I'm sure a lot more people than you know would follow you!

Sorry dude, I don't have time for a Twitter. I am a full time dad, husband, plus I have a full time career outside of sports investing. I post on SBR to keep track of my plays and my reasons for making my plays. This allows me to review if my reasoning was successful or unsuccessful and adjust accordingly. I am also happy to help out those that follow my plays with writeups, advice and things like that. However, I don't even have a "twitter" or know how to "tweat" and it's just too much work when you factor in everything else I have going on in my life, plus SBR. Twitter is good for finding out about injuries, but I am not really interested in doing the whole twitter thing right now.

Good luck

[Pick'nParlays]

Sorry dude, I don't have time for a Twitter. I am a full time dad, husband, plus I have a full time career outside of sports investing. I post on SBR to keep track of my plays and my reasons for making my plays. This allows me to review if my reasoning was successful or unsuccessful and adjust accordingly. I am also happy to help out those that follow my plays with writeups, advice and things like that. However, I don't even have a "twitter" or know how to "tweat" and it's just too much work when you factor in everything else I have going on in my life, plus SBR. Twitter is good for finding out about injuries, but I am not really interested in doing the whole twitter thing right now.

Good luck

Oh come on LTA..... I know guys who would gladly ditch there career, kids, and wife for a kickass twitter account. duh

[Love The Action]

Rodney Mott is one of the refs in the Warriors/Suns game and you know what that usually means -- pound the under. However, with the Warriors finally getting Ellis and Curry together today, I think that bodes well for a higher scoring game. Clearly, with Jackson coaching, the days of 220 GS totals are over. However, I think 193 was a bit of an overadjustment in my opinion. I leaned over, but with Mott as the ref I decided to pass. GL.

[Love The Action]

Oh come on LTA..... I know guys who would gladly ditch there career, kids, and wife for a kickass twitter account. duh

[Laker_crazy]

Good Luck on your Plays tonight LT,it is good to see you on my thread and showing faith,i remember you for a while now,and you have always been a very respectful person,and the work that you are putting in to cap games is commendable and i am sure you will have a very profitable season.I have learnt to take the negativity in my stride,however when it used to happen in the first year,it used to get to me at times,but with time,Ignorance has indeed been bliss.When the tide turns,which i expect to soon,it will all be back to normal.What people forget is that,it is not a one night affair,but a steady battle,where you got to keep at it,some people cannot digest a fact that there is someone out there who is willing to help someone,without taking any grant in return.

I am not saying that winning is guaranteed,nothing is,in life,but i have learnt that if you want to do something,then you should do it if you can be at the zenith,i do not believe in second position in life,i have met some wonderful people on this forum and you are one of them,feel free to discuss anything in the future,may be we could make more difference in here.Good Luck mate and thank you for the love and support,appreciate it

[Love The Action]

Good Luck mate and thank you for the love and support,appreciate it

No worries bud, you've earned respect based on your success over a large sample thereby proving your success is not "luck." Good luck in the future and remember, the best part of a losing streak is that there is an even better winning streak right around the corner

[Trivial]

I have no twitter account either. My facebook page was last used 2 years ago before my baby was born. I know the feeling. You do a lot already and I thank you.

[jas19illini]

Sorry dude, I don't have time for a Twitter. I am a full time dad, husband, plus I have a full time career outside of sports investing. I post on SBR to keep track of my plays and my reasons for making my plays. This allows me to review if my reasoning was successful or unsuccessful and adjust accordingly. I am also happy to help out those that follow my plays with writeups, advice and things like that. However, I don't even have a "twitter" or know how to "tweat" and it's just too much work when you factor in everything else I have going on in my life, plus SBR. Twitter is good for finding out about injuries, but I am not really interested in doing the whole twitter thing right now.

Good luck

Maybe send smoke signals? Lol.

[jbreez]

Hey LTA I have a question, and maybe this is sort of a newbie question, but I am relatively new to all this.

Why dont you ever bet the over and under on a single team. For instance, the pacers nets game tonight. You seem confident that the pacers d will keep a tired nets team to a low scoring game.

The total for the nets is at 88 right now. Wouldnt that be a good spot to play just in case the pacers beat up on them enough to cover the game total?