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Game off the board. Wade questionableComment -
GL to you as well.
However, you are wrong about the amount of bets in the Miami/Minny game. The under in this game has way more BETS than the over. However, the over has seen more MONEY.
According to SI, 60% of all bets are on the under and according to sportsspy 75% of all bets are on the under.
Where are you seeing a lot of bets on the over?Comment -
Game time decision. He said he will play if he thinks he can help the team more than he could last game when he scored 10 points and originally encountered the bone bruise on his left foot. Still, he hit the winning shot, so he couldn't have been hurt too bad.
To be honest UP, I'm not worried either way. If he plays, I hope he is healthy and plays well. If not, we get to see more from the youngster Norris Cole and Lebron takes over. I'm more concerned about getting the 100 or so out of Minny than the 110 or so out of Miami. Someone will step up for the Heat.Comment -
Wade's an excellent defender. Hell, at just 6'4 he's the Heat's rim protector. He's a weak side help defender but I don't think i've ever seen a team rely on a 6 foot 4 guard to protect the paint like Wade does. He has the highest shot block average on any shooting guard in NBA history, he's a total beast. It's not just about his blocked shots as much as it is the amount of shots he "alters", that result in misses
What I'm getting at is.. not having Wade in there will possibly help Minny get to that 100 point level you're looking for. Not having Wade in the game could possibly make the game more wide open imo. Especially when it's so sudden and the team has to scramble a bit more , not having practice time together without Wade to get used to it, etc. And I could see the Heat attempting a lot of 3's tonight as a result (and they have some good 3-pt shooters like James Jones, Battier, Chalmers, Cole has been nailing some, lebron can get trigger happy without wade etc)
.Last edited by PR9; 12-30-11, 02:46 PM.Comment -
Appreciate the words LTA, just a note that last year on final road games of road trips with 3 games or more they went a perfect 5-0. I tend to agree with you that it is a no play, but I still give the edge to the bulls because I still think the Clips need some more time with all the new bodies. I think the under looks good here to at 192.Comment -
Lta, you were spot on line was up to 212 before
the Wade concern.
nice call.
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Lta, what book do you use? Are you happy with them?
My book tends to not release lines until all value is sapped.Comment -
Sorry, should have made myself clearer... I meant the amount of $$$. At any rate, I think the books would rather give $$$ back to the dummies rather than the sharps. Besides that, I'm expecting Miami to attempt to implement a slower pace more akin to their style last year as they clearly possess the defensive edge over MIN. Getting into a shootout with them, I think (esp on their turf), will only give MIN more of an edge, imo. Grabbed the under 212 at -120. Hope we both cash.Comment -
^^ don't go only by what I said. Do as much research as possible. I took a loss yesterday for my first losing day and was just as confident.
Froste mentioned that the Bulls were 5-0 last year on their final game of roadtrips of 3 games or more. I looked it up and he's right. One of them was in Miami. And Miami is a much better team than these Clippers.
This is just a very tough game to call. Chicago is clearly the better team, yet the clippers have the clear situational edge. As a miami fan for many years, I have a lot of respect for the Bulls resolve.. they are exactly the type of team to buck such a trend.
whoever said it was 4 games in 6 nights for the bulls needs to look further. DO NOT forget that they had 2 days off before last night's game, to study film,, practice and get their sh*t together. They had 2 full days of rest (and no travel as Sac is next door to GS) to think about these 2 upcoming games vs Sac and the Clips.
So really tonight is their 2nd game in the last 4 nights, that's the way I look at it and not 4 games in 6. I had the Bulls 1Q and 1H last night and just knew they would come out strong. I listened to all the player interviews and paid attention to the chicago media. Rose vowed that they were going to go back to what they did last year which was to crash the boards and get out in the open, Rose said he was going to defer less and attack more, like last year. He said he was going to attack more to get to the foul line as getting to the line equates to wins. He said how he only went to the line 3 times in the 1st two games and said that will change drastically in the upcoming games.
The bulls came out yesterday to prove a point, to get their act together, and clearly played their best all-around game of the season. As much as this is a good spot for the Clippers, it's not the best of times for them to be facing the Bulls either.
.Last edited by PR9; 12-30-11, 04:16 PM.Comment -
I think this supports a no play pretty well.
As to your point about the schedule, just because the Bulls had two days off before the most recent game does not take away the fact that this is their fourth game in a six day span. That is an undisputable fact no matter how you want to spin it and that much work takes a toll on the body irrespective of the two day break between their b2b's. This is especially true when you are living out of a suitcase on the road.
I think NBA stuffer does the best job of showing how these scheduling quirks affect offensive and defensive efficiency.Comment -
I was going to play Memphis -5 (-120) earlier in the day until I saw that Conley was out. I would have played it even with him out if Xavier Henry was healthy, but their bench is really thin right now. I still think they win, but I can't trust them on the spread. Nevertheless, I think this is a great let-down spot for Houston after beating their in-state rival last night. Memphis needs to smash someone after starting 0-2 and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens tonight.Comment -
on bulls:
Chicago Bulls are 16-0 ATS in 3 years as an underdog when they are playing at least their 3rd straight road game.
The line opened at Chi +1 so technically they were underdogs out of the gate last night.Comment -
I am not a firm believer in 5 game samples personally, nor 20 game samples that span so many years that neither the coach or any of the players are relevant to the data. Seems borderline mystical to me
. Just my personal opinion about "trends", not an attack. I certainly have much to learn. I like Memphis tonight to win, wouldn't rule out dbl digits.
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Play #2
Suns (+2.5) 1x (Locked)
This is a great spot for the Suns to get their first win, but even if they don't win, I think getting the hook at +2.5 is enough to cash. If you look at the available rosters tonight, it's clear to me the Suns have the edge with Gordon out for the Hornets. Even though the Hornets have Jack returning, that's not enough of a tradeoff to make up for the lost scoring of Gordon. Situationally, this is a great spot for the Suns. They lost a few days ago to these very Hornets in Phoenix after they blew a late lead and Gordon hit the game winner. In that game, the Suns shot under 40% while NO hit at about a 44% clip. However, the Suns were winning for most of the game and took it on the chin with that late loss. I think this is a classic revenge spot -- especially when you consider the Hornets have won the last 4 -- and the veteran-laden Suns know what do in these situations. Bottom line is that I expect the Suns offensive production to start regressing towards their mean. In this case, that will mean more scoring and better all-around play. The Suns have had a poor start to the season mainly because of their offense. Guys like Nash, Hill, Gortat, Frye, Lopez, et.al. have all had back-to-back poor shooting performances. At some point, these guys are going to start shooting closer to their career averages and I think that happens tonight. Without Gordon, the Hornets are going to have a tough time generating clutch offense and that lack of a go-to threat will hurt the Hornets. I have this game set at a PK, but I could argue that the Suns should really be -1 with Gordon out. The Suns were -6 favorites a few days ago and now they are getting 2.5 points. That is a huge overreaction by the books. Nevertheless, over 70% of all bets are on the Hornets. Thankfully, we know better and see the value in the Suns tonight. Based on the foregoing, I'm rolling with the Suns for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Gonna hate to go against my hornets, but i think ur right. Good luck!Comment -
NBA 2011-2012 12/30/2011 Recap
1 - 1 = -0.1x
NBA 2011-2012 Season
10 - 7 = +3.2x
How did we not cash that Heat over....Comment -
Let's get them tomorrowComment -
NBA 2011-2012 12/31/2011
Play #1
Knicks/Kings over (198.5) 0.50x (Locked)
I tried to put a full 1x down at this number but my local's website would not let me. It limited me because I think this line has not been widely released. I am playing this for 0.50x at 198.5 now, because that is an absolute steal. I've never experienced a limit on a wager at this book before but I suspect they won't let me get down more than $200 because the line has actually not been widely released yet and when it does it will be much higher whether Amare plays or not. I suspect he does play, but even if he does not play, I can't imagine the Knicks shooting under 40% three games in a row. I am still a little buzzed from tonight, but I know an off-market number with value when I see it and getting this matchup at a total of 198.5 is a steal regardless of Amare's health. Therefore, even though I know there is a chance he does not play, I have to roll with the over at this small number. If you look at the total in this matchup from last season, they were set well over 200 at 219 and 208. Therefore, even if Amare does not play, I think we see the books set this number over 200 which gives me a great number here. If you look at the advanced efficiency numbers for these first few games, you will see that neither team plays defense and their defensive efficiency numbers are brutal. Therefore, I suspect we see two teams who just decide not to play defense and choose to play a fast paced run and gun style of basketball where they just try to outscore each other. I am heading to bed now, but as soon as I wake up I am going to be checking this number to see if I can still get it and put more down on it. We shall see. I have this game set at 207, so to get it almost 10 points less is true "value." I am rolling with the over for 0.50x now and my add more later if the number remains in this range. Good luck.Comment -
Added 0.50x to Play #1. Correct units denoted above.
I should not have taken this one last night. That was really stupid. But that is what happens when you hit the submit button with alcohol in your system. I still think this one flyes over 200 with or without Amare. Good luck.Comment -
Play #2
Nuggets/Lakers over (196.5) 1x (Locked)
I just don't think a Nuggets game should be set this low right now, even though the Lakers are an under machine at the moment. To me, the Lakers are slowly but surely breaking out of their shooting slump and there is no reason for them not to hit 100 against the Nuggs because the Nuggs are playing at such a fast pace and have such a deep bench. Therefore, regardless of who is on the court, the Nuggs can put up some points. Both teams are top 10 in offensive efficiency and the Nuggs play the fastest pace in the league right now. Even though both teams do have solid defensive efficiency numbers (both top 10 as well), I think we see a great offensive game today. The Nuggs will force a fast pace and the Lakers will have no choice but to oblige. Rodney Mott is ref, along with Maddox and Zielinski. Even though Mott was the best under ref out there last year, he is 2-0 o/u this year and his lifetime stats do not evidence such a huge under lean. Therefore, I think that last year's big under results was an anomaly. The other two refs generally have no lean either way. I have this game set at 203 and we're getting over 7 points of value. Because of the strength of the Lakers defense, I am not going to put more than 1x on this one but getting 196.5 is just too good to pass up for a Nuggets game. Based on the foregoing, I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.Comment -
Thanks for the insight LTA...really appreciate your write-ups.
Good Luck on today's plays.Comment -
Really? The over on a bricks game ... Good luck, I've learned my lessonComment -
Hey LTA, thanks for the plays as always
Do you like the Pistons tonight ?Comment -
I know right.....
However, they should have went way over against the Lakers who is a solid defensive team. The Knicks just ran out of gas at the end. In this game, both the Knicks and Sacramento are in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency, while both are in the top 15 in pace. Neither of these two teams are going to be looking to play defense tonight and instead will just look to play some "streetball." I think that leads to sloppy play, turnovers and a ton of fast break transition points. Other than Washington, who has a historic under lean, the other two refs are relatively neutral.
I do worry about the Knicks depth, especially if Amare cannot play. However, I just keep going back to Sacramento's poor defense. They are a young team that is not really interested in grinding out defensive wins. I have watched two of their games this season and all they want to do is run and throw up shots. With how poorly the Knicks have shot since their opening day game with the Celtics, they are primed to regress towards their mean and start shooting better. To me, they should easily shoot 45% today against Sacramento. I guess we'll find out, but I think this one flies over the 200 mark. Good luck.Comment -
I think the Kings win 110-108
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DRose always plays hard, but that does not always translate into wins and covers. I don't regret not playing the side in that one at all because I didn't like the situational spot they were in. I do, however, regret not playing my lean on the over. I was out at dinner and was going to play the over at 192, but the total started to drop before tip and I got spooked. That one had "over" written all over it and I should have stuck with my lean. However, in the early season, I prefer to keep my cards small rather than have a ton of plays. There are still too many variables this early in the season and I need more advanced statistical data for my model with each team having a much larger statistical sample size.
I think yesterday's game sets up nicely for a Bulls under in the next game. Can't wait to see the line. Good luck today and I'm glad you had a nice day yesterday.
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jesus, my book has the lakers game at 199.
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