LTA's NBA Plays

[Love The Action]

I MUCH rather go under than over (in this case) when the line has swung this much. I trust oddsmakers but also respect line moves. But a move this big could just mean the last 2-3 points of that movement are steam chasers & the move isn't 100% legit.

GL w/ this play, I choose to stay away.

Probably a wise move on your part...bobcats are on fire early

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/28/2011

Play #1

76'ers (-1)(-115) 1x (Locked)

No time for an indepth writeup right now, but I'm taking the sixers tonight against an aging nash and suns team that is trending downwards. The sixers are more athletic and deep and I expect them to improve their road record this season starting tonight. I have the sixers set at 3 point faves and I'm rolling with them tonight for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Celtics/Hornets under (176) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to get 177, but it never got there and I lost the hook. I still like this enough for a play as I have it set at 173.5. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Heat/Bobcats under (195.5) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Added 0.50x to Play #2 for total of 1x. Correct units denoted above.

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Wow...celts under closed at 173....glad I added to that one when I did.

[Donnie Brasco]

Nice!

[Trivial]

Best of luck to us all tonight !

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/28/2011

Play #1

76'ers (-1)(-115) 1x (Locked)

No time for an indepth writeup right now, but I'm taking the sixers tonight against an aging nash and suns team that is trending downwards. The sixers are more athletic and deep and I expect them to improve their road record this season starting tonight. I have the sixers set at 3 point faves and I'm rolling with them tonight for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Celtics/Hornets under (176) 1x (Locked)

I wanted to get 177, but it never got there and I lost the hook. I still like this enough for a play as I have it set at 173.5. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.

Play #3

Heat/Bobcats under (195.5) 1x (Locked)

Good luck.

Card is final at the above three plays. No play on the late game. GL.

[Donnie Brasco]

Sweet, we squeezed out the heat under!

[Love The Action]

Sweet, we squeezed out the heat under!

Yeah...that was nice. My analysis below turned out to be dead on

Yep..i put much less stock in a move like that in the beginning of the year, as opposed to the end. Plus, its common for those moves to lose to the closing number. It might hit 191 and all the early over money cashing and all the late steam chasers losing.

[nbaprofosor]

good win .good job. i had only 2 play as well from the nba i posted 2.pm which was miami under celtics uder

[Love The Action]

good win .good job. i had only 2 play as well from the nba i posted 2.pm which was miami under celtics uder

You are the funniest guy on SBR!

[nbaprofosor]

funny how

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/28/2011 Recap

3 - 0 = +3x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

7 - 5 = +2.4x

Quite a few good looking plays for Thursday. Let's get back to it!

[2daBank]

only a matter of time...nice work brother..

[pacocn]

nice work lta

[Donnie Brasco]

NBA 2011-2012 12/28/2011 Recap

3 - 0 = +3x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

7 - 5 = +2.4x

Quite a few good looking plays for Thursday. Let's get back to it!

Way to go brother, i knew you'd get this money making machine up and running. You are the man!

[Love The Action]

Where can i learn more about this? I hear kenpom but dont wanna pay. What is a good reference for the formula? Anything similar for football?

I already responded to this question and recommended the book Basketball on Paper by Dean Oliver.

However, I forgot to post this link which should really help you get a basic understanding before you dive into the book. GL

http://www.rawbw.com/~deano/articles/20040601_roboscout.htm

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/29/2011

Play #1

Bulls (-7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I was able to get -115 on -7, but a lot of books look to be at -7 (-120) or 7.5 (-110). I would definitely get it down to 7 (-120) if you can't get -115 because the numbers 2 and 7 are the most important key numbers in the NBA. There is a reason that the books are setting the Bulls at -7 or -7.5 and that's because they matchup so well against this young and up-n-coming Sacramento team. Make no mistake, I like Sacramento this year and think there will be some valuable times to bet them this season. Some might say there is value on them in this game because they are playing at home. However, I have the Bulls set at -8.5, which is a full point to point and a half more than the current number. Therefore, I would argue that the value lies in the Bulls. The Bulls are a great bounce-back team after a bad loss under coach Thibodeaux. If you look back over the Bulls performances last year, you would find that the Bulls typically dominated their following opponent after getting embarrassed the day before. In addition, I have read numerous comments from Bulls players ranged from Rose to Noah who are unanimous in their disappointment over the loss to Golden State and their intent on improving the defense which has been the catalyst for most of their success over the last couple of seasons. However, in addition to their improved defense, I think the Bulls also shoot much better against the Kings. Over the first two games, the Bulls have played horrible on offense and shot really poorly. I think this provides the Bulls with a break-out opportunity to have a great offensive game against a struggling defensive team. Once we start getting to the 5th game for each team, I will start providing you with a more stat-based writeup with multiple advanced stat references. In this game, and even though our sample size is insignificant, we see a Bulls team who is not that far below Sacramento in Offensive EG%, ORB%, TRB% and FT/FGA, while they still are much better than Sacramento in the same advanced defensive categories. These early season stats are also consistent to what we found last season and that is why I deem them reliable. The bottom line is that I feel this is a great spot for a blow out by the Bulls and the Books are begging everyone to take Sacramento by opening up between -7 and -7.5. Had the books opened below the key number of 7, I would have thought twice about this play. However, I think we're seeing a reliable adjustment by the books for the Bulls "bounce-back" effect, but it's not going to be enough in the particular case. I have this game set at -8.5 giving us 1.5 points of "value" in this game. Based on the foregoing factors, I am rolling with the Bulls for 1x. Good luck.

[Exxpresso]

Like the Bulls Pick

What do you think about the Mavericks + 7 ?

[Rolo1984]

Like the Bulls Pick

What do you think about the Mavericks + 7 ?

Why would you ever bet a team playing as awfull as the mavs do at the moment? People tend to overestimate B2B especially in the beginning of a season.

[Love The Action]

Like the Bulls Pick

What do you think about the Mavericks + 7 ?

I am passing on the mavs. I just can't trust them right now. However, they are a bit undervalued. I have them set +5.5 and they are in a great "spot." Good luck in whatever you choose.

[Exxpresso]

I am passing on the mavs. I just can't trust them right now. However, they are a bit undervalued. I have them set +5.5 and they are in a great "spot." Good luck in whatever you choose.

Thanks for your answer

I took the Bulls - 7 and the Mavs + 7. Now I´m looking forward to your other plays for today

[Redscot]

NBA 2011-2012 12/28/2011 Recap

3 - 0 = +3x

NBA 2011-2012 Season

7 - 5 = +2.4x

Quite a few good looking plays for Thursday. Let's get back to it!

Nice night my man, good job in both CFB and NBA, let's keep on rolling .

[Love The Action]

Thanks Red! Good luck buddy....only about 45 days to spring training!

[MrXYZ]

Nice work LTA, congrats on the sweep.

[Love The Action]

NBA 2011-2012 12/29/2011

Play #1

Bulls (-7)(-115) 1x (Locked)

I was able to get -115 on -7, but a lot of books look to be at -7 (-120) or 7.5 (-110). I would definitely get it down to 7 (-120) if you can't get -115 because the numbers 2 and 7 are the most important key numbers in the NBA. There is a reason that the books are setting the Bulls at -7 or -7.5 and that's because they matchup so well against this young and up-n-coming Sacramento team. Make no mistake, I like Sacramento this year and think there will be some valuable times to bet them this season. Some might say there is value on them in this game because they are playing at home. However, I have the Bulls set at -8.5, which is a full point to point and a half more than the current number. Therefore, I would argue that the value lies in the Bulls. The Bulls are a great bounce-back team after a bad loss under coach Thibodeaux. If you look back over the Bulls performances last year, you would find that the Bulls typically dominated their following opponent after getting embarrassed the day before. In addition, I have read numerous comments from Bulls players ranged from Rose to Noah who are unanimous in their disappointment over the loss to Golden State and their intent on improving the defense which has been the catalyst for most of their success over the last couple of seasons. However, in addition to their improved defense, I think the Bulls also shoot much better against the Kings. Over the first two games, the Bulls have played horrible on offense and shot really poorly. I think this provides the Bulls with a break-out opportunity to have a great offensive game against a struggling defensive team. Once we start getting to the 5th game for each team, I will start providing you with a more stat-based writeup with multiple advanced stat references. In this game, and even though our sample size is insignificant, we see a Bulls team who is not that far below Sacramento in Offensive EG%, ORB%, TRB% and FT/FGA, while they still are much better than Sacramento in the same advanced defensive categories. These early season stats are also consistent to what we found last season and that is why I deem them reliable. The bottom line is that I feel this is a great spot for a blow out by the Bulls and the Books are begging everyone to take Sacramento by opening up between -7 and -7.5. Had the books opened below the key number of 7, I would have thought twice about this play. However, I think we're seeing a reliable adjustment by the books for the Bulls "bounce-back" effect, but it's not going to be enough in the particular case. I have this game set at -8.5 giving us 1.5 points of "value" in this game. Based on the foregoing factors, I am rolling with the Bulls for 1x. Good luck.

Play #2

Spurs/Rockets under (197) 1x (Locked)

Play #3

Knicks/Lakers over (195) 1x (Locked)

Busy day at work, so no time for writeups. I may also play the Magic over, if it drops back around 181. Good luck.

[FrostE]

Im following LTA, nice work thus far.

[absolutkaos]

Just registered an account today to say thanks for the effort, and all the great plays!

I've been tailing you for most of the NFL season (after a buddy showed me this site), and seen some great returns. Figured why not stick with the winning ticket into the NBA season too!? Keep it up LTA!!

[Love The Action]

Still stuck at work. No play on magic game.

I had to put my plays in early because I was unable to monitor line movement due to work and I really got burned by movement on the spurs total which is up to 199. We are looking ok on our other plays as the bulls are -8 and the lakers total is at 196, both a full point in our favor. I still like that spurs under, I just wish I was able to wait before locking it in.

My card is final. Good luck tonight!

[wguan2]

Does the line movement on Spurs under worry you as it worries me? I got it at 198 thinking that was the highest it would go and late movement would bring it done to around 196.5 or so. It's at 199.5 now at my book. I'm debating on whether to put another unit on it.

[shaneel02]

gl!

[le14]

played the rockets U and LAL O but had the Bulls at -8 at -105 so i just laid off of it


Good luck!

[wguan2]

WOW. Between this post and the post before, it jumped from 199.5 to 198. I refreshed the page as I'm typing this and it went form 198 to 197. CRAZY line movement LTA.

[Love The Action]

Does the line movement on Spurs under worry you as it worries me? I got it at 198 thinking that was the highest it would go and late movement would bring it done to around 196.5 or so. It's at 199.5 now at my book. I'm debating on whether to put another unit on it.

Nope...we got that steam

Closed at 197 or 197.5 depending on the book. GL

[Love The Action]

WOW. Between this post and the post before, it jumped from 199.5 to 198. I refreshed the page as I'm typing this and it went form 198 to 197. CRAZY line movement LTA.

Classic nba late steam....its good to be back!

[MrXYZ]

I'm on the NY/LA over too. Can't see Lakers scoring less than 100, so we'll need NY to have a better shooting night to cash this one. The Denver/Portland over 203 was tempting but I could see a 101-98 type scoreline sinking everyone who thinks it's an obvious play.