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NBA 5/25/11
Heat/Bulls under (180) 10x (Locked)
I actually locked this in earlier in the morning when it opened and I'm happy getting the 180. I suspect we may see 180.5 at some point, but I was not willing to risk losing the 180 by waiting. Plus, I think the total ends up dropping sometime before tip.
I forsee a very similar game to yesterday, without the bullshit OT. Yesterday's game ended in regulation with a total of 170 and I see no reason why we won't see a final score around that number again. If the ref assignments lean under, I may add a unit or two.
Both teams are now fully focused on defense. It's clear the Bulls are having trouble scoring against Miami and when the Bulls play their game, Miami is limited on offense as well. Miami has figured out that doubling Rose off the pick completely throws him out of rhythm and Rose's Bulls teammates have proven unable to hit open shots this series. Perhaps that changes now that they are back in Chicago but even if they hit a few more shots, this game should still stay under. The only risk to our play here is the refs and their favoritism towards the Heat. Hopefully, that does not lead to more than 50 ft attempts.
As long as both teams shoot (i) a collective 45% or under on 140 - 150 fg attempts, (ii) 34% on about 20-28 three point attempts and (iii) 75% on about 50 or so free throw attempts, we shouldn't see more than 175 total points in this game. Because I think we see similar numbers tomorrow, I am rolling with the under.
We also have trends that support this play, whether it is the elimination game under trend or the trend for Bulls games to go under in Chicago against playoff caliber teams or the general trend for this matchup to go under in Chicago.
The pace has been set in the last couple games and I don't see these two teams deciding to play quicker tomorrow. Even if they do, this series has been filled with offensive ineptitude, and could easily stay under. I should have some more thoughts on the individual player matchups that I expect a little later. Good luck.Comment -
Here we go again. One minute left, with a 10 point cushion.Comment -
Drinks on me boys. Thanks for the play LTA.Comment -
Thanks LTA, it pushed for 3 seconds then they deducted 2 points from the final score. Lucky.Comment -
Gotta really consider a hedge bet on the Heat tomorrow. I like the under no matter which team wins, so I don't see a correlation between one team and the under. Perhaps slightly to the Bulls, but nothing noteworthy. I'm just not sure tomorrow is the day. I think I would rather back them in Miami.
What is the current price you are seeing for Heat to win this series/EC?Comment -
good stuff LTA
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Bout time we won a squeakerComment -
I had the 199 and got 210 live also
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-1600 for the heat to win east i see
and -1200 somewhere else that i just checked.Comment -
NBA 5/25/11 Recap
1 - 0 = +10x
In this thread:
19 - 15 = +28.5x
A close winner with the OKC/Dallas under, to make up for the OT loser the night before. We'll take it and move onto another big play tomorrow in our 10x play on the Bulls/Heat under 180. I always say it's always about the big plays. If you can hit those at a higher rate, you pretty much need to just tread water the rest of the time. However, I like to keep my overall winning percentage above 55% at all times, so we get back to that level with tonight's win. Tomorrow should be fun and should help us get over that +35x goal I have had for this thread.
MLB 5/25/22 Recap
3-1 = -1.05
In this thread:
58 - 53 = +4.75
Oh man...what might have been...we could have gone a beautiful 5-0 on the day, including our NBA play, and profited over 18x tonight if the freeking Pirates would have won. Instead, we lost our first big play of the MLB season in the 5x loser on the Pirates. They had the game won and just blew it in 11 innings. If a runner didn't get picked off first, they would have won in 9 innings. I feel like it was a good call, but because it didn't cash that doesn't matter. Oh well, we mount a nice recovery with our 2x winner on Seattle and 1x winners on Arizona and San Diego. It's time to get back to our more consistent winning ways in MLB. I do not want this up and down to continue. Good luck tomorrow.Comment -
I'm in the same boat as you. Seems to me that the best way to go about this is a small play on the Heat ML tomorrow (+145, but likely to rise) or even a parlay with the total, which would pay out in the +370 range. Small investment to cover the bulk of the original amount risked and not out a lot if the Bulls stay alive. Still thinking it over.Comment -
Boom shakalaka winner
Most games have that funky fouling game within the last minute when you are behind. It has occurred to me that last night's game in Dallas, there were no fouling game at all. I think the way the ball flew high in the sky after many tips for lose ball shaved off the clock and Terry running the other way also killed off the clock.
could of been ugly and we had enough beating. Finally some justice.Comment -
Respect you for posting a honest record LTA........too many in here want to be KING CAPPER......NOT A REALISTIC EXPECTATION
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Hey, what about me JR? I'm honest too. LOL
Well you have to teach me more about this line movement thingy because I'm seeing early line with sharps(?) buying the over heavily which drives up that total prices. Public will play by tomorrow and it will be interesting if public and sharps on the same side or opposite end.
I don't know. Maybe LTA can share some light into this.Comment -
Very good call on Arizona. WOWComment -
I agree that, our best hedge opportunity is the Heat ML tonight. A Heat ML parlay with the under, would pay about 3.5x for every 1x risked. The problem is, I'm just not sold on the Heat winning this game. I do not deny in any way that the Bulls have been thoroughly exposed for not having anyone that can make a clutch shot or create off the dribble other than Rose. Even his play has been spotty and suspect. However, in Chicago, after losing three in a row, I just think the Bulls might pull this off to lose in 6 in Miami. I would hate to bet the Heat tonight and actually have the Bullls win. Consequently, I may just put my future stake at risk and not hedge tonight. If I can hit the under tonight, I still will have profited on this series regardless of my futures outcome (it basically makes my under wager worth 5x if the Heat win tonight as long as the under hits as well). If I look at it that way, I don't feel so bad. Profit is profit...
I need to think long and hard about this situation...if you can, please post what you decide to do in here at some point before tip. Thanks.Comment -
Thanks...Kennedy had been pitching lights out lately, while Hammel had been getting shelled. Plus, Arizon as a team was hot going in against a cold Rocks team. Nevertheless, to go up in the four game series 2-1 was big for the Diamondbacks. I'll take it. Wish I would have put more at stake to make up for that damn Pirates game
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What makes you think early sharp money is on the over? The total opened at 180 and has stayed there. Pinny opened at -105 on both sides, but is now juicing the under heavier than the over despite more total action on the over. The same with Matchbook. 5D opened at -110, started juicing the under at -107 to the over at -103, and is now juicing both at -105. Bookmaker opened lower than the rest of the books by opening at 179.5. The move up to 180 for them was more about having the same number as the rest of the market as opposed to receiving a ton of money on the over. I would suspect that right now, despite taking more bets on the over, the books are receiving equal or more money on the under.
While I expect the line to go up to 180.5 at some point today, I also expect it to drop back down to 180 or 179.5 before tip. If you don't have time to monitor the lines, you should buy now at 180 if you like the under. Good luck bud...Comment -
Who do you guys like in the Marlins/Giants matchup today. Despite Vogelsong pitching so well lately (no runs in last three starts), I think Sanchez gets the better of him today. However, can the Giants really gets swept at home after losing in extra innings. Usually, this is a spot that I would love backing the Giants. Unfortunately, my gut tells me the fish get it done today. Thoughts?
I also lean Oakland and KC on the ML. Perhaps a few totals in MLB today as well. Good luck.Comment -
So...the Phillies and Reds played 18 innings yesterday and depleted both bullpens. Does that lead to the over today or does hot pitching Bailey and Lee shut the teams tired offenses down today? I can't decide, but I think we may see 8 or fewer runs today. The line is currently 7 but looking to rise, so that is something to keep an eye on.
Does anyone know the long term trends for runs scored in the game following an extra inning game of 15 innings or more? I would assume the trend favors the over, but not sure. We need to factor in that the position players may be tired as well.
As an FYI, SF and the Marlins also played to 12 innings yesterday. So we have a similar situation there. Something to keep an eye on. In each of the games, all four starters will need to go at least 7 innings for the unders to have any chance.Comment -
I like SanchezComment -
how bout the royals?Comment -
Refs are out -- M. Davis S. Foster G. WillardComment -
I think the Bulls can win 4-3. Tonight is the night where they will unleash the Beast. Brian Scalarine. The man, the myth, the legend.Comment -
Thoughts on refs for bulls heat LTA? My book currently has the o/u at 180.5! about to lock it!Comment -
Why aren't the public pounding the over?Comment
!). BOL guys!