I'm out for the night...lets get this under tomorrow and really make some money. I suspect this will be 10x play despite the trend to the over in dallas. Bol...
-
Comment -
LTA, do you think Thunder will play defense tonight? 'Cause they're on emotional letdown, u think they will recover tonight after game 4? Or that's what the books want us to think?
I hope we won't see a repeat of Lakers-Mavs Game 4.Comment -
Unreal...
Not only did we cap the Bulls/Heat under perfectly, only to lose because of overtime, but we also lost the Padres ML play in 11 innings 3-2 to the Cardinals. Then, we also lose the Marlins/Giants over by a half-run as the final score ends 5-1 (total was 6.5) where both teams had the bases loaded twice in the final two innings. In addition, we lose the Royasl/Orioles over by a half run as well because that one ends 5-3 (total was 8.5). Finally, Pirates fall 2-0 by not scoring at all.
Just a brutal freeking day that we already forgot about, but needed to recap here in the thread. A very difficult day indeed. Here are the final tallies for both NBA and MLB. WE WILL BOUNCE BACK TODAY. I am very excited about today's plays that are already locked in. I will have a 10x play on the under in OKC/Dallas and my biggest MLB play of the year so far on the Pirates ML, as I believe they are in a perfect spot to roll today. I also really like the Mariners. I have locked those three plays in and will post them in a minute after I finish this recap. Good luck today guys. Sorry we got screwed on so many plays yesterday, but the gambling gods owes us today and I think we will make up for yesterday's losses and then some. Good luck!
NBA 5/24/11 Recap
0 - 1 = -8.8x
In this thread:
18 - 15 = +18.5x
We all know the story...robbed by OT yet again. 17 unders lost to OT this year. Unreal. Variance has to kick in to keep this from happening for the rest of the playoffs. Whatever, I'm over this...onto today's game!!!
MLB 5/24/11 Recap
1 - 6 = -4.6x
In this thread:
55 - 52 = +5.8x
A bullshit day on the bases as well as get lose multiple games by half a run. Just a horrible day that killed our great MLB winning percentage. When it rains it pours. We can't dwell on this losing, because we're not losers. Only losers feel sorry for themselves and let it affect them. We forget and move on. I'm just glad we have some great plays and great situations to make some profit for today. Good luck.Comment -
MLB 5/25/11
Pirates ML (-105) 4x (Locked)
This is my biggest play of the MLB season so far. The Pirates have been shut out two games in a row. As you know, I love playing teams when they are coming off a shutout as the offense is more likely than not to produce in the following game. In this particular streak, the Pirates faced two hot pitchers in Porcello and Jurjjens. In this game, however, they will be facing the Braves' minor league pitcher Mike Minor who was just called up to fill in Tim Hudson. Minor has been shelled so far in limited major league action over the last two seasons. I like that to continue today against a hungry Pirates lineup.
On the other side, the Pirates are starting James McDonald who has a great history against the Braves (has not allowed any runs in 11 innings of work) and has been hot in his last five starts. Over his last five starts, McDonald has only allowed 8 earned runs and the team has won 4 of those 5 starts. McDonald credits this to a more aggressive mindset and going right at the hitters. I think we see the same thing today as the Braves are forced to start two minor leaguers in the outfield to replace Jason Heyward and Nate McClouth who just went on the disabled list. When you add in the fact Uggla is struggling, I think the Braves lineup is in worse shape than the Pirates.
Because the Pirates are hungrier for the win today based on the two recent shutouts and because McDonald is hot going against a weaker Braves lineup, I think we see the Pirates knock around Minor and roll to a nice victory. I really like the Pirates at home in this spot. Good luck.
Seattle ML (-105) 2x (Locked)
Bedard v. Duensing today. Bedard and Seattle have both been hot, while both Duensing and the Twins have been ice cold. I think Bedard pitches well today and Seattle rebounds after getting beat yesterday to take this series 2-1. Seattle has been hitting well with Smoak leading the way and the Twins lineup is hurting without Mauer. Seattle should get it done today.
Both of these MLB plays are early games. Therefore, if you like them at the same price I got, you may want to lock them in now. Good luck.Comment -
Adding 5x (199) (-120) (Locked)
Total of 10x on Thunder/Mavs under (199)
All the books are starting to drop to 198 despite 80%+ on the over. I am locking in an additional 5x and buying the hook up to 199 so I have all of my 10x at 199. A small price to pay for playoff lines that are ultra-sharp. I have to get ready and get to work, but I will try to give you some thoughts on this game via my phone on my commute to work.
Needless to say, I am not afraid of the Dallas over trend at home. I think this game is dominated by defense. OKC came out so strong in game 4, that Dallas will want to clamp down right away from a defensive standpoint. OKC needs to do the same as they do not want Terry, Stojakovich, Kidd, Dirk, etc. to get off to a hot start and bury them from the beginning. I think we see a rough, tough defensive struggle tonight. I have this game capped at 194-195, so I feel we have a lot of value at 199. As I mention before, if the books were worried about the over, they would have opened at 200 or above. Instead they opened at 199.5 and that total has dropped ever since, all the way down to 198 at most books despite over 80% of all action on the over.
This is a classic situation for the under, as game 5 represents an elimination game for OKC. We all know about the elimination game under trend. Based on the hot scoring in game 4, I expect a return to defense and half-court offense in this game as a defensive tone gets set by both teams from the outset. I really like this game to go under the posted total, and may even look to add another unit or two if the ref assignments favor the under. Good luck.Comment -
Good luck on everyone's plays today! I'm off to work...Comment -
I will be adding to the pirates play. There are so many angles and factors that I look for and believe this play to be such +ev that it warrants at least 5x. Bol...Comment -
Refs for tonight's game -- M. McCutchen J. Phillips D. StaffordComment -
Ref assignments:
The ref assignments are not favorable to the under with Mccutchen, Phillips and Stafford as the zebras. With that said, however, they do not favor the over to such an extent to worry us. Plus, at least we don't have to deal with Zarba or Fraher. Hopefully, the defense does not allow for the refs to impact our under play. Good luck.
Comment -
I lean under for game 5 of bulls/heat.Comment -
OKC/DALLAS is too sharp for me to call, I have the game capped around 199-201, but you've got some good points in your write-up & the under is looking solid.
With you on the Pirates, good luck today!
Comment -
I was on the Pirates and the under and I swear it's almost like the Pirates look for new ways to lose close games at home. Runner picked off 1st very next hitter hits a solo shot to tie the game instead of a 3-2 lead and then bases loaded and 1 out in the bottom of the 9th and then a double play ball. I'm not sure if I can mess with the NBA today after the last 3 nights. I had Bulls under on Sunday, OKC on Monday and then Bulls and under last night, the bad thing is I feel like I made the right bets but didn't win. I know that people will say that doesn't make sense but to me it does. Good luck on the big Dallas under play tonight.Comment -
lots of folks counting on over in today's okc/dal game...Comment -
Mlb
Padres ml (+ 100) 1x (locked)
I look for padres to avoid the sweep.Comment -
Lots of people on over but what people must also know is that Dallas is going to put up a better defensive scheme tonight. Dallas is not going to let OKC to run up them points and for them to play the catch up game again.
Dallas has a rest and they are back to practice today. Looks the total is starting to creep back up again. 200 at some places. 199 at most.Comment -
Dallas 13-1 ats in the playoffs
Comment -
I agree about Dallas' D tonight.
I don't worry about the total creeping up as that is the same public money that cause the total to go up last night by .5. If you remember, we should have cashed yesterday's under easy as they only scored 170 points in regulation. Plus, if you look, Pinny is holding at 198.5 and juicing the under -106 to the over's -104. This is clearly public money driving up the total.
Comment -
Sorry dude...sometimes when it rains it pours. I feel your pain Aces.
I completely understand what you're saying. It's tough to lose when you know you were on the "right side." Unfortunately, the only true right side is the side that cashes. Therefore, I try to have a rule that I get pissed about a bad beat such as the one we suffered last night, but I don't let it carry into the next day. If you let these bad beats eat you up inside, if will affect your ability to pick winners because you will subconsciously start capping games differently. You will leave winners off your card as too "risky" and pick losers because they seem the "safer" bet when you make them.
At the end of the day, you need to approach each play independently of the last play. I find the psychology behind sports investing fascinating and I recommend you read some books about it. A huge part of being good at any profession, let alone sports investing, is approaching each day with a positive outlook. If you start thinking that your plays are doomed from the outset, you most certainly be a long term loser. However, if you approach your plays with positivity, that is the result you will achieve more often than not.
You just need to figure out a great capping process and then stick to it through thick and thin. I know what works for me and has worked over a large sample size. Therefore, I stick to the same research procedures for every play. Consistency and positivity are key.
Don't give up and don't be afraid to play tonight's game because of what happened the last three day. Go ahead and put a small action play on the under. I believe that will be the play that turns your luck around. Good luck!
Comment -
199(-105) or 200(-115)?Comment -
I see 199 now but on sbr it says my book has gone to 200 that's why i ask in your opinion is it better to wait for a lil less money or take now for a lil better moneyComment -
Diamondbacks ML (+110) 1x (Locked)
Kennedy has been hot and pitched well against the Rockies historically. Hammel has been cold of late. Diamondbacks have won 8 of their last 10, while the Rockies have lost 6 of their last 10. The public is all over the Rockies, and even though the line continued to go up on the Rockies, I'm going to roll with AZ. Good luck.Comment -
If you can get 200 at -110, go ahead and take that. If you can get either 199 at -105 or 200 at -115, I would take the 200 and pay the little bit of extra juice. Remember, when the lines are so sharp in the playoffs, every bit of value matters. With that said, however, I am very happy with my play at 199. I see this one ending in the low 190's. I have it capped at 194-195, but would not be surprised to see 188 to 192 in total points. Good luck!Comment -
Ya been following you the past few days and its been a lil rough
but sticking with it we will ride it out and win big tonight
Comment -
well it hasn't gone up yet....going to wait 5 more mins and just bet itComment -
200(-115) 6xComment -
Tailing today just todayComment -
Yeah, it's been up and down since Saturday. On Saturday, I won almost 15x, but then lost 10x on Sunday. On Monday, we won 3x, but then lost about 13x yesterday. However, when you lose a 10x play to overtime, there's not much you can do.
Regardless, we're still profitable in both NBA and MLB in this thread alone and up over 45x for the NBA playoffs and up over 20x on the MLB season overall (as documented in previous threads). I know my capping process is profitable in the long run or else my wife wouldn't let me spend so much time on it. When we took our trip to Hawai paid by my locals, she was convinced that this is real investment opportunity. However, you need to be disciplined, smart and follow a process.
Regardless, I always recommend that everyone cap their own games and never blindly tail any capper. Use cappers such as me as a reference. If I like a play strong and give solid reasoning, and that corresponds to your own beliefs, then you should pull the trigger. But I would never blindly follow anyone. Always do your own work. You will learn more and have a better sense of pride about it. However, for anyone that does tail, I hope I can always make you money.
I'm really not getting anything out of posting here, other than having a diary I can refer back to on why I made a play and why it won or lost. However, I also hope I can help a few of you out with questions you may have or a different way to look at things. We should try to learn as much as possible from each other on this forum and pick up different angles, systems, styles and methods for capping. It's us against the books, so we all need to work together. Good luck.Comment -
Thunder look pretty organized today, I think they might actually win this game..Comment
