LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/10/11

Play#1

Seattle/Los Angeles under (6)(+100) 5x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 2.5x play under new unit scale).

There are some concerns with this play. The ump has a big over lean. Plus, both pitchers have thrown a lot of pitches in their last 3-5 starts easily eclipsing 115 in each. Hernandez has gone over in all of this games this year set with a total of 6 and he has not pitched well historically against the Angels. With that said, however, both of these pitchers are no worse than top 20 MLB (and mostly top 10) in BABIP, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, tERA, they both get strikeouts (especially when needed) and both throw ground balls as evidenced by both having a GB/FB ratio above 1.15. Both the Mariners and Angels are huge under teams with both having solid fielding statistics rated in top 15 in MLB, unspectacular hitting stats with Seattle ranked 30th in MLB and Angels more mid-of-the-pack at 16th and bullpens that are solid with Seattle rated in top 10 and LA in top 15. I don't see this series escaping without at least one under hitting and if it's going to happen it has to be today with two of the best in MLB facing off. I think the intangibles in this game are strong with neither pitcher wanting to be outdone in their last start before the all star break. I think we see a classic pitcher's duel today with a 2-1 type of game. I have it capped at 5, so I will roll with the value of having 6 at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres ML (-103) 2x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 1x play under new unit scale)

The Dodgers have beaten the Padres in back to back days 1-0. I don't forsee that happening again with such a disparity in starting pitching. Stauffer is a legitimate stud this year and Lilly has generally been a dud. Stauffer is top 30 in MLB in WHIP, xERA, FIP and xFIP. I think the most striking difference is in the batted ball differentials. Stauffer has a GB/FB ratio over 2, while Lilly is under 1. That makes a bet on Lilly cost-prohibitive and gives us value on the Padres in this spot. Padres have a top 5 bullpen and somewhat comparable offensive stats to the Dodgers. I think the intangibles go the Padres in this spot after losing the last two so close and I just don't see the Dodgers pulling off the sweep. I'm rolling Padres all the way. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants ML (-153) 1x & Giants RL -1.5 (+152) 1x (Locked) (Note: This means I am playing Giants -1 RL

Play #4

Mets/Giants under (6.5) 2x (Locked)

I will give my thoughts in the next post...I wanted to get this posted asap....

[tom1234]

Play #3

Giants ML (-153) 1x & Giants RL -1.5 (+152) 1x (Locked) (Note: This means I am playing Giants -1 RL

Play #4

Mets/Giants under (6.5) 2x (Locked)

I will give my thoughts in the next post...I wanted to get this posted asap....

tail you the under, thanks

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/10/11

Play#1

Seattle/Los Angeles under (6)(+100) 5x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 2.5x play under new unit scale).

There are some concerns with this play. The ump has a big over lean. Plus, both pitchers have thrown a lot of pitches in their last 3-5 starts easily eclipsing 115 in each. Hernandez has gone over in all of this games this year set with a total of 6 and he has not pitched well historically against the Angels. With that said, however, both of these pitchers are no worse than top 20 MLB (and mostly top 10) in BABIP, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, tERA, they both get strikeouts (especially when needed) and both throw ground balls as evidenced by both having a GB/FB ratio above 1.15. Both the Mariners and Angels are huge under teams with both having solid fielding statistics rated in top 15 in MLB, unspectacular hitting stats with Seattle ranked 30th in MLB and Angels more mid-of-the-pack at 16th and bullpens that are solid with Seattle rated in top 10 and LA in top 15. I don't see this series escaping without at least one under hitting and if it's going to happen it has to be today with two of the best in MLB facing off. I think the intangibles in this game are strong with neither pitcher wanting to be outdone in their last start before the all star break. I think we see a classic pitcher's duel today with a 2-1 type of game. I have it capped at 5, so I will roll with the value of having 6 at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres ML (-103) 2x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 1x play under new unit scale)

The Dodgers have beaten the Padres in back to back days 1-0. I don't forsee that happening again with such a disparity in starting pitching. Stauffer is a legitimate stud this year and Lilly has generally been a dud. Stauffer is top 30 in MLB in WHIP, xERA, FIP and xFIP. I think the most striking difference is in the batted ball differentials. Stauffer has a GB/FB ratio over 2, while Lilly is under 1. That makes a bet on Lilly cost-prohibitive and gives us value on the Padres in this spot. Padres have a top 5 bullpen and somewhat comparable offensive stats to the Dodgers. I think the intangibles go the Padres in this spot after losing the last two so close and I just don't see the Dodgers pulling off the sweep. I'm rolling Padres all the way. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants ML (-153) 1x & Giants RL -1.5 (+152) 1x (Locked) (Note: This means I am playing Giants -1 RL)

Play #4

Mets/Giants under (6.5) 2x (Locked)

I will give my thoughts in the next post...I wanted to get this posted asap....

The plays on the Giants -1 RL and Giants under is all about Matt Cain against Pelfrey. Cain is top 50 MLB in tERA, FIP and xFIP, while Pelfrey is top 140. Plus, in their last three starts, the stats are strongly in Cain's favor. In their last three starts, Cain has a .80 WHIP and 2.17 ERA while Pelfrey has a 1.80 WHIP and 4.24 ERA. This is why I like the Giants to win by 2. However, I like Pelfrey to keep it close and the Giants to win a 4-1 or 4-2 type game. Both players have a BAPIP in the top 35 of the league and Pelfrey only as a 17% LD% and an overal GB/FB in 1.2 range. Plus, the Mets lineup is struggling right now and I expect Cain to be motivated to bounce back from a rough start against the Padres and before the all star break. Finally, as you know, I love playing unders on Sunday night ESPN game of the weeks based on the trend for those games to go under. I'm rolling Giants -1 RL and under in tonight's last game before the all star break. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/10/11

Play#1

Seattle/Los Angeles under (6)(+100) 5x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 2.5x play under new unit scale). PUSH

There are some concerns with this play. The ump has a big over lean. Plus, both pitchers have thrown a lot of pitches in their last 3-5 starts easily eclipsing 115 in each. Hernandez has gone over in all of this games this year set with a total of 6 and he has not pitched well historically against the Angels. With that said, however, both of these pitchers are no worse than top 20 MLB (and mostly top 10) in BABIP, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, tERA, they both get strikeouts (especially when needed) and both throw ground balls as evidenced by both having a GB/FB ratio above 1.15. Both the Mariners and Angels are huge under teams with both having solid fielding statistics rated in top 15 in MLB, unspectacular hitting stats with Seattle ranked 30th in MLB and Angels more mid-of-the-pack at 16th and bullpens that are solid with Seattle rated in top 10 and LA in top 15. I don't see this series escaping without at least one under hitting and if it's going to happen it has to be today with two of the best in MLB facing off. I think the intangibles in this game are strong with neither pitcher wanting to be outdone in their last start before the all star break. I think we see a classic pitcher's duel today with a 2-1 type of game. I have it capped at 5, so I will roll with the value of having 6 at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres ML (-103) 2x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 1x play under new unit scale) LOSS

The Dodgers have beaten the Padres in back to back days 1-0. I don't forsee that happening again with such a disparity in starting pitching. Stauffer is a legitimate stud this year and Lilly has generally been a dud. Stauffer is top 30 in MLB in WHIP, xERA, FIP and xFIP. I think the most striking difference is in the batted ball differentials. Stauffer has a GB/FB ratio over 2, while Lilly is under 1. That makes a bet on Lilly cost-prohibitive and gives us value on the Padres in this spot. Padres have a top 5 bullpen and somewhat comparable offensive stats to the Dodgers. I think the intangibles go the Padres in this spot after losing the last two so close and I just don't see the Dodgers pulling off the sweep. I'm rolling Padres all the way. Good luck.

Play #3

Giants ML (-153) 1x & Giants RL -1.5 (+152) 1x (Locked) (Note: This means I am playing Giants -1 RL) WINNER

Play #4

Mets/Giants under (6.5) 2x (Locked) WINNER

The plays on the Giants -1 RL and Giants under is all about Matt Cain against Pelfrey. Cain is top 50 MLB in tERA, FIP and xFIP, while Pelfrey is top 140. Plus, in their last three starts, the stats are strongly in Cain's favor. In their last three starts, Cain has a .80 WHIP and 2.17 ERA while Pelfrey has a 1.80 WHIP and 4.24 ERA. This is why I like the Giants to win by 2. However, I like Pelfrey to keep it close and the Giants to win a 4-1 or 4-2 type game. Both players have a BAPIP in the top 35 of the league and Pelfrey only as a 17% LD% and an overal GB/FB in 1.2 range. Plus, the Mets lineup is struggling right now and I expect Cain to be motivated to bounce back from a rough start against the Padres and before the all star break. Finally, as you know, I love playing unders on Sunday night ESPN game of the weeks based on the trend for those games to go under. I'm rolling Giants -1 RL and under in tonight's last game before the all star break. Good luck!

Another push today in the Seattle under. Whatever, we have missed out on 23x on profit in pushes in the last week. Those could have made a big difference in our overall total. As it stands, we made our second straight day of profit with just under +3x today and cashed the Giants - 1RL for 2.5x and the under for 2x. I will get the final records for this thread posted tomorrow. However, I am very pleased to say that we will be about +9x in MLB profit for this thread after being has high as +35x. Nevertheless, when you add the +15.4x that we made during the first month of the season, we are up about 25x for the year so far in the MLB. I will get all of my records for MLB on the year updated and posted tomorrow. Here is our status through July 6th. I was 73 - 60 = +15.4 in the month of May as documented in my first round NBA threads (see links at beginning of thread). From April 31 to July 6th in this thread, we went 187 - 174 = +12.05x. That puts my MLB record for the year through July 6th at 260 - 234 = +27.45x. In WNBA through July 6th, we were 30 - 25 = +5.7x in WNBA. I will add on Thursday, Friday, Saturday and Sunday's records to get everything updated tomorrow. Regardless, however, we continue to make profit and with the second half of the MLB season historically being my strongest, I am very much looking forward to the next 2.5 months.

[alamo]

Thanks for the picks LTA. Best of luck as we move to the second half of the MLB season

[GGALLERT]

1st Half Profits!!!

2nd half run on the horizon!!
You gotta update how the little man is doing.

[ParlayKing]

Hey LTA congrats on a profitable first half. Bummer that all those pushes prevented an even more fruitful outcome. But the way I see it pushes are just evidence of how sharp the lines really are, you didn't beat them but they didn't beat you either. Keep up the good work.

[JR007]

Thanks for sharing the knowledge !!!!!!!!!!

I have seen some correlation between both team totals"juiced" (under)...and the total for the game "juiced" (under)...on the low totals

[GoggsViggs]

LTA, looks like we can take a few days off from capping and catch up on sleep. How's the baby? I'm finally able to get mine to sleep for 8 hours straight now. Thank God.

BOL to you in 2nd half of bases.

[flush99]

Good luck everyone on your bets!

[MrXYZ]

Enjoy the all-star break LTA. Good luck with the 2nd half of the season everyone!

There's always Japanese NPB action if you need a fix...

[Redscot]

Enjoy the break and time with the family LTA .
Looking forward to the new threads and a strong second half.

[doin]

April 30, 2011
"MLB: Mets/Phillies Under (7) .5x (Locked)

The books came off the key number of 7.5 despite action that slightly favors the over. That tells me there are some heavy hitters backing the under here. With Halladay pitching you could always see a shutout and I like Niese to come out motivated to pitch well against Halladay and the Phillies.

Just a small play for some early action. Good luck."

Been missing out tooooo long. Thank you for sharing LTA.

[Love The Action]

WNBA Recap 7/7/11 - 7/10/11

3-1 = -2.5x

We lost our biggest play of the year so far with the 5x play on the NY/SA over on July 8th. Otherwise, we had a nice weekend in WNBA with no plays on Sunday. I am really excited to get going with tomorrow's WNBA action as the first plays posted in my permanent NBA WNBA thread. My season record so far in the WNBA is below. If it wasn't for that 5x loser we would be up around 10x. We will go on a WNBA hot streak soon.

WNBA 2011 Season

33 - 27 = +3.2x

That is our season record so far. Not too bad for my first year capping WNBA, but we can definitely do better. I am very disappointed to only be up by 3x....hot streak will be coming soon.

[Love The Action]

MLB Recap 7/7/11 - 7/10/11

5 -10 - 4 = - 1x

If it wasn't for those four pushes, all of which occurred in the 8th inning or later of the games on big 5x + plays, we would have kicked butt over the last four days. However, because we didn't hit those, we actually got lucky in not doing more damage to our bankroll. Thankfully, of the five winners we did have over the last four days, one was an 8x winner and the others were all over 2.5x which left us down just -1x for the last four days in MLB. We are starting our new thread and will get hot to achieve our MLB profit goals.

MLB in this thread:

192 - 184 = +11.05x

MLB from NBA First Round Threads (see links on first page of this thread):

73 - 60 = +15.4x

MLB 2011 Season (for all plays documented on SBR)

265 - 244 = +26.45x

I am a bit disappointed with my MLB season so far. I had hoped to be closer to 50x by now. In fact, as little as 10 days ago, we were up over +35x in this thread for MLB which would have gotten us over that 50x first half of the season goal. However, in the last ten days, we lost some big plays, had others push, and just kept taking two steps back for every step forward in losing about 20x in that time period to leave us up just around +11x in this thread. Nevertheless, profit is profit and as long as we are in the black that is all that counts. I truly expect to dominate the 2nd half of the MLB season in our new MLB thread. I will post the link once I get it started.

[Love The Action]

NBA Record First Round of Playoffs (check first page of this thread to links to my first round playoff threads):

24 - 17 = +47.5x

NBA Record Second Round of Playoffs, Conference Championships and League Championship (all the plays in this thread)

24 - 17 = +43.5x

NBA Playoffs 2011:

48 - 34 = +91x

The 2011 NBA playoffs for me was all about our big plays of 10x and over. We hit over 70% of those plays including my biggest play all season the 15x winner on the under in the second game of the Bulls/Hawks series. If it wasn't for winning all those big plays, I would have never come close to hitting +90x on the playoffs. However, I will surely take it. I only won 61.3x during the regular season when I went 294 - 245 = +61.3x so I owe a lot of my overall NBA 2011 season success to this thread and all my first round NBA threads. I really felt that maintaining a thread made me a better capper. Because my regular season record was not documented, I will not be posting that as an official record. Rest assured, however, that is accurate and I fully expect to better that record next year in my permanent NBA/WNBA thread right here at SBR which I will be opening later tonight. I am very thankful to everyone who followed or otherwise contributed to this thread. You all made me a better capper and I only hope that I can continue helping you beat the books. I will post the links to my new threads shortly. However, there will be no new threads after that except for an NFL and NCAAF thread once football season gets going. That way, I will have a thread for each sport, rather than putting them all in one thread in Players Talk. I would rather have separate threads by sport so it's easier for record keeping and so we get sports specific discussion going in each thread. I hope everyone who has followed me hear continues to follow in my new threads. Thanks to all.

[Love The Action]

Thanks to everyone for their kind words and asking about the baby. Our baby boy is doing great and I love every minute of fatherhood. It is the absolute best. Although I would give capping up in a minute if it got in the way of my family, thankfully it never has and I never will allow such a thing to occur. That is why I am ending this thread to move onto my permanent threads for all the sports that I cap. I will now be posting my NBA/WNBA thread here http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basket...l#post10753258 and my MLB plays here http://forum.sbrforum.com/baseball-h...l#post10753173.

I would like to thank everyone that supported this thread with their words of encouragement, positivity and thoughts on the games. I was always very thankful that we were able to keep the trolls out of this thread because we're honest and we treat others with respect. That is exactly how I will continue to operate my new threads. We ended this thread with about 100x in profit between the NBA playoffs and the MLB plays I posted in here. That is not too shabby. Let's keep committed, working hard and working smart and we will continue to succeed and get better. Good luck to everyone in the future and I look forward to seeing you in my new threads. Thanks.

LTA