LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[JR007]

Not trying to be argumentative.......just showing a different perspective.....ie trying to be ahead of the curve....if there is a correction
who knows...good luck with your plays

[Hawaii'sUpNcomin]

anyone else doesn't like the new sbr odds format? there's no percentages anymore. LTA how do you get your percentages on the number of bets?

[JR007]

Derek Holland going for the Rangers tonight...1.54 whip....GASCAN

[ManBearPig]

anyone else doesn't like the new sbr odds format? there's no percentages anymore. LTA how do you get your percentages on the number of bets?

To get their %'s just mouseover the word "Opener" and it will show. Although there are better places to get this data IMO.

[Hawaii'sUpNcomin]

thanks mbp. what do you recommend are better places to get those data?

[Love The Action]

Just an fyi for those interested, I lean over in almost every game tonight except the ones I'm already playing the under...I may play a few of those overs but may also just stick with my current plays as my top selections...good luck tonight all!

[Love The Action]

Good news...Muchlinski is umping the cubs under and Gibson the Dodgers under...both favor the under significantly....no ump releases in our other games yet but I will update.

[Love The Action]

Manny Gonzalez, who is 0-4 o/u, has the twins under. Now all we need is an under ump in our big play mariners under and we will be all set.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/7/11

AZ/Cardinals over (8.5) 1x (locked)

Oakland/Texas over (9.5)(+ 100) 1x (locked)


Driving at the moment so no analysis but ...good luck

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/7/11

Mariners/Angels under (6)(+100) 8x (Locked)

Every factor affecting this game points under. The contrarian side of me says we should go over because of that. However, sometimes the obvious plays are the right play. Both Fister and Weaver have put up unreal stats over their last three ballgames. In addition, with respect to some sabermetric stats, Fister has really excelled this year with a tERA rank of 19th in the league. Weaver, on the other hand is 2nd in the league in tERA. I have always used sabermetrics in my capping but haven't really mentioned it much in my writeups because I figured no one was really into those things. If you would like some more sabermetrics analysis, let me know. However, you don't even need sabermetrics to see how great these two guys have pitched this year. Simply look at their season WHIP and recent WHIP stats and you will see a guy in Weaver who is top 5 in the league and Fister who is top 20. When you combine the starting pitching, with two of the better bullpens going tomorrow and two offensive teams that are struggling against right handed pitching, I think you have to roll under here. I don't care that the line opened with the under juiced and was quickly hit with over money. At the end of the day, many people like to be overs after a team has been shut out the day before such as the Mariners were today. However, they have to go against Weaver and I just don't have much stock in the Mariners knocking Weaver around. With Fister pitching so well, this is a no-brainer play. To get it at plus odds is just icing on the cake. This is definitely my favorite play on Thursday's board. However, there are quite a few plays which intrigue me and which I will be following to lock in upon getting the right price. GL...

Added 2x for total of 10x Mariners/Angels under (6)(+100)(Locked)

Joe West is the ump...I hate that fat sob, but I hope he calls a nice game for the pitchers. I just see no reason not to make this a 10x play and it is definitely the strongest play I have come across in a long time. I'm not saying it has everything I look for, but this has almost everything.

Added 0.50x for total of 2x Mets/Dodgers under (6)(+100)(Locked)

The ump in this one has a huge under lean. Best of luck tonight to everyone.

[wilfor1]

Tough night so far but at least we caught a break on twins/white sox with a push despite 8 runs after only 5inns

Now let's get the big play

[Krazymojo]

Angels raping

[funnyman]

Doesn't look good . 3-1 after 3. Can always hope .

[jimmcc01]

damn, these innings can't go fast enough!

[RICOCHE6868]

[aussieH]

Back on track

[jimmcc01]

I know it makes sense statistically, but sometimes it's one of those things where... it looks to good to be true. glad I limited myselft to 1U. on to tomorrow.

[alamo]

I know it makes sense statistically, but sometimes it's one of those things where... it looks to good to be true. glad I limited myselft to 1U. on to tomorrow.

Phew. Got out with a push. Live to fight another day.

[Cannon]

What is your record and the record for today. Thanks

[Love The Action]

What is your record and the record for today. Thanks

Go back a page for record going into today. I won't have time for records again until Saturday...

[Love The Action]

Personally, I feel as though the Mariners should have been an easy winner and was just another line in bad beats. Other than one bad inning by both pitchers, Weaver and Fister dominated just as I predicted. The score was 3-1 going into the bottom of the eighth. If not for one bloop single, that play would have easily cashed. Some feel lucky to have pushed, while I feel like I lost because that easy profit was stolen from me. Difference in mentality...

[GGALLERT]

100% Correct, 1 turd hit away from a easy win...LTA keep it up!

[Love The Action]

Needed to refresh the avatar...keeping the Breaking Bad theme but rolling with Saul Goodman...better call Saul...for some winners!

[Love The Action]

Three pushes tonight that could have easily cashed...especially that last two games. Out of the eighteen innings in the Mariners/Angels and Mets/Dodgers games, there were runs scored in only FOUR innings. I really feel like 12x was just stolen. Nothing you can do though...already looking at tomorrow's card, plus we'll have some WNBA action. Man, it's time to get hot again....

[funnyman]

Pushes are better than losses.Looking forward to a good week-end before break.

[Love The Action]

Perhaps my biggest wnba play of the year so far tonight as long as I can get a decent line when one of my locals open up wnba in another hour...probably a 3x play.

[Love The Action]

Mlb 7/8/11

Braves/Phils under (7) 1x (locked)

Seattle/LA under (7) 1x (locked)


Locked these in when sbr was down...looking to add to phils under later after umps released...

[Love The Action]

Mlb 7/8/11

Braves/Phils under (7) 1x (locked)

Seattle/LA under (7) 1x (locked)


Locked these in when sbr was down...looking to add to phils under later after umps released...

Adding 1x for total of 2x Braves/Phils under (7)(locked)

AZ/Cards under (7.5)(+ 100) 2x (locked)


I will try to get you writeups before gane time. These are good spots for the starters...

Wnba

Ny/SA over (162.2) 4x (locked)


I have it capped at 170...will try to get writeup before the game...I love this play.

[gtboy]

better luck today man. i played some the same totals u had yesterday but i was a little fortunately bc i bought a few hooks. gl

[csmkr18]

Wnba

Ny/SA over (162.2) 4x (locked)


I have it capped at 170...will try to get writeup before the game...I love this play.

with you on this over! Good luck !

[csmkr18]

The line was 164.5, but RAS is on under. That's not bad.

[JR007]

Good luck tonight

Lots of things happen in the eighth inning of games...I have seen it for years.

[Love The Action]

Good luck tonight

Lots of things happen in the eighth inning of games...I have seen it for years.

Stop the presses

Good luck to you as well!

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/8/11

Added 1x for total of 3x Braves/Phils under (2x under (7) 1x under (6.5)(+ 100) (locked)

Oakland/Texas under (8.5)(-115) 1x (locked)


Just getting off of work...love phils under as top mlb play and silver stars over as top wnba play. May add to wnba when I get home if we see some encouraging line movement. Good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

WNBA 7/8/11

Ny/SA over (162.2) 4x (locked)


I have it capped at 170...will try to get writeup before the game...I love this play.

Adding 1x for total of 5x NY/SA over (4x over (162.2) 1x over (163)(Locked)

Mercury/Shock under (184) 1x (Locked)

I love the NY over...biggest WNBA play so far. I have it capped at 170. Ny shot horribly last game and I expect that to improve this game. We barely missed the over last time and both teams trend over on 3 days + of rest.

In the Mercury game, I expect Phoenix to roll. I think they score between 95 and 101. However, I think the 4th quarter slows down enough to keep Tulsa under 82 total points. I liked the over at the opening number, but with 7 points of steam, I'll take a shot on the under.