LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Redscot]

I'm in big on the Cards game with ya LTA. Gonna be getting sauced and eating BBQ in good company. Hopefully this one cashes for us . If this one comes in I think you need to let youngin' suck on a rib bone at least!

BOL

[Love The Action]

Added 0.50x for total of 8.5x Reds/Cards under (7)(+100) (Locked)

[Love The Action]

Pisses me off I didn't play my lean on the Mariners under because of McCarthy making his first start off the DL and the line movement that supported the over. Final score 2-1...damn.

[JR007]

just a couple of thoughts on totals...stuff I read...there is something that has to do with modeling...regression analysis of pitchers
second half of the season.......also helps too know bullpens and bullpen usage.....one capper quoted "middle relief" is the" silent death'
of unders..do not know how you break out teams strength regarding middle relief, all I have found so far is bullpen rankings....for what it's worth...good luck LTA and all......

[freshguy222]

just a couple of thoughts on totals...stuff I read...there is something that has to do with modeling...regression analysis of pitchers
second half of the season.......also helps too know bullpens and bullpen usage.....one capper quoted "middle relief" is the" silent death'
of unders..do not know how you break out teams strength regarding middle relief, all I have found so far is bullpen rankings....for what it's worth...good luck LTA and all......

thats why i think it would be smarter especially in those pitcher duels to play first five innings or at least split the bet

[JR007]

Yes, i agree....that is a solid option going forward..weather's hot as well

[Love The Action]

just a couple of thoughts on totals...stuff I read...there is something that has to do with modeling...regression analysis of pitchers
second half of the season.......also helps too know bullpens and bullpen usage.....one capper quoted "middle relief" is the" silent death'
of unders..do not know how you break out teams strength regarding middle relief, all I have found so far is bullpen rankings....for what it's worth...good luck LTA and all......

When I cap a bullpen into my total plays, I look at each teams' bullpen's total ERA, total WHIP and then who is available for that day's game and their respective numbers. Middle relief is one of the most important factors for playing a total when you think about it. Once the starter gets beyond the 6 inning mark, it's all up to the middle relief. However, you have stay cognizant of who is actually available to pitch. If your factoring one teams' set-up guy into your capping analysis for a particular game, but the guy is not available because he pitched three games in a row, you made a big mistake. That's why I generally weigh bullpen strength into every total play I make.

I believe I read an article that lays out what you reference -- i.e. pitchers getting tired out and regressing to more overs if they happened to throw a bunch of unders in the 1h...something to look out for...

[Love The Action]

Regardless of the pitcher's home run, that under play in the Arizona/Mil game never had a chance. The score is 7-6 right now...just a bad call by me on that one.

[Love The Action]

thats why i think it would be smarter especially in those pitcher duels to play first five innings or at least split the bet

I've experimented in the past, but found no significant advantage by playing the first 5 on an under. You generally have a 3 or 4 run total on the 5 inning lines but when you lose a total, often, you get those four or five runs in the first five innings, but only one or two runs the rest of the way after a good and/or lucky bulllpen takes over. Perhaps that would be something worthy of tracking for the next 30 total plays on the under. If we lose any game totals that would have cashed had we played them on the 5 inning line as well. I would be interested in knowing that...

[Love The Action]

WNBA 7/3/11

Seattle/Washington under (146.5) 1.5x (Locked) WINNER

I really wanted to find a way to back the over here. As csmkr18 said, Seattle's defense is banged up and Washington does not play as tough a D as you would like. However, I also lean to the under for day-basketball games whether ladies or men. Sure enough, if you look at these two teams o/u trends for day v. night games, you will see they are a combined 0-3 o/u so far. I have this game capped at 143, so I have to stick with my line and roll with the under here. I would not be shocked to see some stupid late free throws push this one over like we have seen on a few of our other under plays so far this year -- stupid women -- but I'm going to trust that this game will stay under by a few points. Unders in the WNBA are dangerous, but these are two of the better under bets going right now and the oddsmakers set the total this low for a reason. This number is akin to a 177 type number in the NBA and I love taking those low total unders with the men so why not women too. I'm not too big on fading the "public" when it comes to WNBA because the public in the WNBA is a much more informed bettor than in the NBA, but you have almost 80% on the over right now so this is setting up as a nice fade of the majority. I wish we could get some ref assignment information, but it just doesn't exist. If anyone knows how we can get ref information on WNBA refs, please post it here. Thanks and good luck!

WNBA Recap 7/3/11

1 - 0 = +1.5x

WNBA 2011 Season

29 - 23 = +7.3x

Amidst that tough Diamondbacks under loss yesterday, we did win our WNBA play of the day a nice 1.5x winner on the Seattle/Wash under. In some ways, I really enjoy the pace of the WNBA as far as number of games. I like having a day off here and there. It gets really taxing on my time and I don't sleep very much when I have to cap a three or four game WNBA card and a 15 game MLB card on the same day and still take care of the family and work a full time job. It's tough, but it makes it all worthwhile when you win. Let's get back to the WNBA profit on Tuesday. We'll update our MLB records after today's games.

[Love The Action]

Ouch...bad bullpen issues today. SD just scores in the top of the 9th to blow that under...gotta pick up our last couple plays here...

[Love The Action]

It's time we start giving a little more trust in AJ Burnett...

[Love The Action]

Cash the 8.5x easy winner on the Reds/Cards under...should have made this one my first 10x MLB play of the year. So many situational angels, plus good starting pitching, plus line movement to back that play up...

[Love The Action]

I lean under in the Mets/Dodgers game, but no play for me...

[Love The Action]

thats why i think it would be smarter especially in those pitcher duels to play first five innings or at least split the bet

I've experimented in the past, but found no significant advantage by playing the first 5 on an under. You generally have a 3 or 4 run total on the 5 inning lines but when you lose a total, often, you get those four or five runs in the first five innings, but only one or two runs the rest of the way after a good and/or lucky bulllpen takes over. Perhaps that would be something worthy of tracking for the next 30 total plays on the under. If we lose any game totals that would have cashed had we played them on the 5 inning line as well. I would be interested in knowing that...

We have some good looking pitching matchups tomorrow. Perhaps a good day to try/track this...

[Love The Action]

We cash our 4x play on the Braves under, so we end up in the red once again by a couple units. The big loss that could have turned our night was the Pirates/Astros under which lost by the hook thanks to a couple errors which cost us at least two runs. But it's off to tomorrow's card and I'm looking at it right now. I will try to get the updated MLB records tomorrow. I want to get some early plays in before we lose any hooks. I am very excited about some huge pitching matchups that lend themselves to the under and few good over plays as well.

[Love The Action]

I lean under in the Mets/Dodgers game, but no play for me...

Looks like De La Rosa might be the real deal for the Dodgers...this is his second dominating start in a row and two of three. I hate when my leans hit and I don't play them. Same thing happened in the Rangers over...you know you are cooled off when you don't play winners and fail to avoid losers. Only good thing about a losing streak is that a winning streak is right around the corner. Tomorrow should be that day with some ace of the rotations squaring off...

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/5/11

Astros/Pirates under (7)(-115) 5x (Locked)

SD/SF under (6)(-115) 5x (Locked)

Seattle/Oakland under (6)(+100) 3x (Locked)

Detroit/LA under (6)(+100) 3x (Locked)

TB/Minny under (7)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)

Philly/FL under (7.5)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)

Locking all these in now, will have some more plays tomorrow. All of these games have great starting pitchers, with solid bullpens, under trends and umps that favor the under. Most of these are some of the top pitchers out there right now and will not want to be outdone by the opposing pitcher. I like some motivational and situational angles going on here. I really like tomorrow's MLB card, we will have a few more plays tomorrow and may add units to these plays. BOL...

[flush99]

Thank you for picks, so early!

[Love The Action]

Good luck today guys...keep an eye out for our wnba plays, which should be locked in around 1pm EST. I will be looking to add units to some of our mlb unders as well...especially that padres under....

[GoggsViggs]

Bol on your plays bro. For WNBA, I'm leaning fever, sky, and sparks.

[alamo]

Good luck LTA. Couple of nice late hits last night and Im thinking were going to carry that momentum into today

[JR007]

www.teamrankings.com......for you guys who like stats......I get my pitcher's WHIP rankings from this

[gtboy]

any wnba play action. i am liking Indiana -5 but whats ur thought? thnaks

[Love The Action]

NFL Prop 7/1/11

NFL Season Starts on Time (September 8, 2011) (-115) 2x (Locked)

I've been doing a lot of research into both the NBA and NFL lockouts. Based on that research, I have concluded that the NFL should get this done by the end of July or early August at the latest. This will allow for a shortened preseason just like the players preferred.

With respect to the NBA, the divide is just too large and do not expect there to be any games next season. I think the season will be cancelled. The owners want to completely overhaul the current financial structure of the league into a model similar to the NHL. Obviously, the players resist such change. I am told the owners are willing to take this one all the way, so I suspect the players will fold but that it will take a long time.

This play looks better and better with every day that passes...price went up to -130 as well....

[Love The Action]

any wnba play action. i am liking Indiana -5 but whats ur thought? thnaks

No lean on that one. Waiting on some line movement before locking any plays in...no big plays today though in wnba...

[Love The Action]

Good luck LTA. Couple of nice late hits last night and Im thinking were going to carry that momentum into today

Thanks...good luck today!

[Love The Action]

WNBA 7/5/11

Seattle/Indiana over (143) 1x (locked)


I've been waiting to get a decent line for this play and jumped on 143. Based on scoring numbers, I actually have it copied in the 141-142 range, however, I like this one to squeak over. In the last matchup, these two teams shot 29% and 33%. All they need is around a collective 42% for us to cash this over. I think we get decent shooting tonight. Its always scary to take an over with seattle, but they can't go under every game this year and I think we have a good spot for the over today. I am looking at a few more plays and will post them if and when I lock them in. Good luck!

[pickemtowinem]

love this WNBA play....too bad bodog dont have the o/u lines open yet....



good luck~ and thank you for your hard work!

[GGALLERT]

I have BODOG also and they never put up O/U lines til real late, jumped on 5Dimes and love it...alot nicer, cleaner lines very easy to follow....Good Luck

[Love The Action]

WNBA 7/5/11

Seattle/Indiana over (143) 1x (locked)


I've been waiting to get a decent line for this play and jumped on 143. Based on scoring numbers, I actually have it copied in the 141-142 range, however, I like this one to squeak over. In the last matchup, these two teams shot 29% and 33%. All they need is around a collective 42% for us to cash this over. I think we get decent shooting tonight. Its always scary to take an over with seattle, but they can't go under every game this year and I think we have a good spot for the over today. I am looking at a few more plays and will post them if and when I lock them in. Good luck!

Washington/Chicago under (150) 1x (locked)


I have this one capped at 147, so I'm taking a shot with the under here. In their first matchup, mysterics shot 45% and sky 60%. I don't think either team plays as well on offense tonight. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/5/11

Astros/Pirates under (7)(-115) 5x (Locked)

SD/SF under (6)(-115) 5x (Locked)

Seattle/Oakland under (6)(+100) 3x (Locked)

Detroit/LA under (6)(+100) 3x (Locked)

TB/Minny under (7)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)

Philly/FL under (7.5)(-115) 2.5x (Locked)

Added 1x for total of 6x Padres/Giants under (6)

Added 0.50x for total of 3.5x Seattle/Oakland under (6)

Looking at mlb now to add units or plays to our card...

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/5/11

Reds/Cardinals over (8) 1x (locked)


Reds just got shut out yesterday and are hitting .316 against lefties in their last ten games. Garcia has gotten shelled of late, so with the ump leaning over big time, I'm going that way as well. Good luck!

[Redscot]

BOL tonight LTA, always appreciate your efforts.

[Love The Action]

Damn...wanted to play the cubs over but couldn't get it in on time.