LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

K I dont think you understand what Im saying, but hope we both cash, I'll hedge if I see it going your way, cheers to both.

Yeah, I think we may be thinking of two different things. Good luck bud!

[ParlayKing]

LTA what ya think of the over in the Boston game? Lackey is a bum and boston bats are red hot.

[Love The Action]

LTA what ya think of the over in the Boston game? Lackey is a bum and boston bats are red hot.

No real lean...10 run totals are tough....but I would say over or nothing! Good luck if you play it!

[alamo]

As always, thanks for your continued time LTA. You are despite the recent dip one of the best cappers on here. I am keeping the faith and know we will be back up to dizzy heights soon.

Look forward to the new threads. Quick Ques - Will you be capping WNBA today ?

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/9/11

Play #1
Braves/Philly under (6.5)(+105) 8x (Locked) (Note: under my new unit scale, this is about a 4x play)

I am still developing my new briefing style for writeups. Rest assured, however, this is my strongest play today. I know we have taken a hit on unders recently, especially low total unders, however, each play is independent of every other play. I am going to make a play where I think we have the biggest edge. I firmly believe we have the strongest edge with Lee and Hanson pitching today. Both pitchers have been dominant all season and especially over their last three or four games. Let me finish capping the MLB and WNBA cards and I will try to get back to this one and provide all the stats.

However, these two pitchers are in the top 20 in the league in ERA, WHIP, tERA, xFIP, BABIP, K/BB and opponent's BA. Both pitcher's batted ball stats are also dominant. The Braves have the best bullpen in the league to the Phils top 20 bullpen. Neither team is that great at fielding (both ranked in the 20's for the league), but they are winning teams that do the little things required to post such great records. The Philly offense ranks middle of the pack at 16th, while the Braves offense is on the lower end at 22nd in the league. The majority of both team's trends point under and the umpire, Everitt, has an under lean with both teams plus a strike percentage of 63.4% which is on the higher end. I wanted to get the under at 7, however, it opened at 6.5 with the over juiced but since such time the juice has steadily dropped at certain outlets and I don't think 7 will materialize. Therefore, I am locking it now at 6.5 with plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Mariners ML (-105) 2x (Locked) (Note: under my new unit scale, this is about a 1x play)

Pineda is just a more dominant pitcher. If you look at the stats, whether standard or advanced, Pineda dominates Pineiro. This is especially true over their most recent starts. With respect to advanced stats, Pineda has the better FIP, xFIP, tERA, BABIP, WHIP, K/BB. While Pineiro is good ground ball pitcher and has the better GB percentage and GB/FB ratio, I think Pineda will dominate the right handed heavy Angels lineup. Neither team is the best hitting team, although the Angels are a markedly better offensive team. Nevertheless, with the Mariners losing two close ones the last two days and King Felix going against Haren tomorrow (scheduled), I think the intangibles go to the Mariners today. They need a win here or face the sweep on Sunday. The Angels are huge public favorite getting over 70% of all bets, which has cause the price on the Mariners to drop. I think that has given us enough value to warrant making a play here when you take into account the pitching dominance of Pineda and the need for the Mariners to win this one. The Mariners are the play today. Good luck.

Play #3

Devil Rays ML (+105) 2x (Locked) (Note: under my new unit scale, this is about a 1x play)

I am fading Burnett here. Although he has pitched better of late, I do not see him outdueling Price today in an early game. Price dominates Burnett in almost every statistical category, including advanced or standard stats. I think the Yanks struggle with their plethora of left handed hitters. This is a rematch from earlier in the year when both pitchers struggled, but I expect better from Price today especially in a rebound spot from his last outting. I'm rolling with the Devil Rays today. Good luck.

Play #4

AZ/St. Louis under (7)(+100) 2x (Locked) (Note: under my new unit scale, this is about a 1x play)

Get this now before they juice the under if you like it. Two groundall pitchers with great batted ball stats face off with Carpenter pitching as well as he has all season. Carpenter is hot and I like Hudson to bounce back. If you look at Hudson's tERA, FIP and xFIP are all top 40 in the league. I worry that both offenses are top 10, but I think we see a low-scoring affair. Good luck.

[freshguy222]

where do you always get those good prices from? i jsut got -109 at pinnacle

[Love The Action]

where do you always get those good prices from? i jsut got -109 stlat pinnacle

I use two locals out of the midwest in us. They generally follow pinny or 5d baseball prices, although one is a bit worse. In this case it probably dropped between the time I took it and posted iut...probably ten minutes... Still a good price though...but we already missed 7.5 so not as good as possible. Good luck...

[JR007]

I do not have any hard data to support it....just observations on the lower totals.....I try to compare the team totals with how the game totals are juiced.....to see consistencies.....another way of attacking the problem

[JR007]

Tor game looks interesting...68% on Clev (sportsspy)....line around a pick...currently

[wilfor1]

LTA I'm definitely stayin with ya. I know you goin to get red hot soon. R u playin the womens hoops tonight bruvva ?

[Love The Action]

Guys..I'm on the road and my phone battery is dying. I am not playing the indians. I may still play the mets under but I may not be able to post it if my phone dies. No other mlb leans.

In wnba, I like unders across the board with all these teams on so much rest, but especially in the mystics and sun games. However, there was big rlm on tge over in that sun game. Anyone know why?

I will do my best to post my wnba plays...good luck tonight!

[Love The Action]

Wnba


Wash/Indiana under (147) 1.5x (locked)

Sun/lynx under (161.5) 0.50x (locked)


I was told ras is on sun over, so I will play under small. Bol...

[freshguy222]

i love those unders on such low totals, its like cashing all season long on 170's in the nba except for that the endings of wnba are sometimes too unpredictable

[alamo]

Wnba Wash/Indiana under (147) 1.5x (locked) Sun/lynx under (161.5) 0.50x (locked) I was told ras is on sun over, so I will play under small. Bol...

Thanks for posting up LT. Hopefully you can find a charger from somewhere

[alamo]

BOOYAKKKKKA ! Cash the big 8x winner. Not even the cruellest of Baseball Gods were denying us this one !

Thanks LTA.

[JR007]

nice hit on the braves under

[BernardMadoff]

Wnba


Wash/Indiana under (147) 1.5x (locked)

Sun/lynx under (161.5) 0.50x (locked)


I was told ras is on sun over, so I will play under small. Bol...

Both worked out, not 4-2, but 4-1 good all the same.

[phillybadboy]

edit

[Love The Action]

wnba

Seattle under 145.5 0.50x

Mlb

Mets under 6.5 0.50x

Both locked...selectivity starts tomorrow...tonight its drunk action plays lol...both locked..., phone about dead..lets close this night big...good luck!

[Love The Action]

Seattle took it on the chin yesterday and we also lost a really close won with the Yankees beating TB by one. We had a nice day in WNBA and made a little over +3x in profit, primarily from the Braves/Phillies under. Let's end the week with another profitable day. Good luck.

[JR007]

Been trying to get some statistical data on the effectiveness of middle relief pitchers...on various websites...,all that i can find is bullpen rankings, and bullpen usage.......probably to fluid a topic to put any hard numbers on.....good luck today

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/10/11

Play#1

Seattle/Los Angeles under (6)(+100) 5x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 2.5x play under new unit scale).

There are some concerns with this play. The ump has a big over lean. Plus, both pitchers have thrown a lot of pitches in their last 3-5 starts easily eclipsing 115 in each. Hernandez has gone over in all of this games this year set with a total of 6 and he has not pitched well historically against the Angels. With that said, however, both of these pitchers are no worse than top 20 MLB (and mostly top 10) in BABIP, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, tERA, they both get strikeouts (especially when needed) and both throw ground balls as evidenced by both having a GB/FB ratio above 1.15. Both the Mariners and Angels are huge under teams with both having solid fielding statistics rated in top 15 in MLB, unspectacular hitting stats with Seattle ranked 30th in MLB and Angels more mid-of-the-pack at 16th and bullpens that are solid with Seattle rated in top 10 and LA in top 15. I don't see this series escaping without at least one under hitting and if it's going to happen it has to be today with two of the best in MLB facing off. I think the intangibles in this game are strong with neither pitcher wanting to be outdone in their last start before the all star break. I think we see a classic pitcher's duel today with a 2-1 type of game. I have it capped at 5, so I will roll with the value of having 6 at plus odds. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Been trying to get some statistical data on the effectiveness of middle relief pitchers...on various websites...,all that i can find is bullpen rankings, and bullpen usage.......probably to fluid a topic to put any hard numbers on.....good luck today

That's an easy one. I use fangraphs for that and most advanced stat info. Go to fangraphs and you can find all advanced stats on every single pitcher, sorted by team, bullpen, starters, whatever. Just check out the stats by bullpen and you can see the projected effectiveness. Good luck!

[ParlayKing]

Which side would you lean in the sea/la game? I was leaning angels to take another one, like you said hernandez has not pitched well against the angels.

[JR007]

Thank You

[Love The Action]

Which side would you lean in the sea/la game? I was leaning angels to take another one, like you said hernandez has not pitched well against the angels.

It's a tough call. I don't put as much stock in historical trends as some others. I weight this season's stats much stronger than previous season results in my models/capping so Hernandez's history against the Angels does not scare me so much. The public is on the Angels and the under. I'm betting they hit that under, but not sure they can hit both. I have no lean on the side, but gun to my head I might have to take the contrarian view and roll with King Felix. It's tough to beat one team four games in a row and Felix will be prepared to pitch well against Haren.

[Love The Action]

Thank You

[alamo]

Are you planning many plays today LTA ?

[Love The Action]

Are you planning many plays today LTA ?

I may have one more MLB play on the Padres.

I will not have time to properly cap the WNBA because I slept too late and need to leave for a family party. Therefore, I will not be playing WNBA today. I have a lean to the over in Tulsa/Phoenix for those interested. I think Phoenix scores an easy 100 today and Tulsa might just get 80. So if you can get a line around 178, that might be interesting. Expect a close one though if you do take the over.

When I get home tonight, I will try to get all the records updated. I will post the Padres play if I make it. Good luck to everyone today!

[gtboy]

any thoughts in the TULSA / PHOENIX total. i see the line dropping a little. t

[Love The Action]

My leans on the Washington and Yankees under look good at the moment. I didn't play the Nationals under because the Rockies bullpen has nothing available but crap and Chacin has been untrustworthy recently. I didn't play the Yankees under because Shields struggles against the Yankees both this year and in the past. Plus, with the short right field porch in NY, I felt like the left handed Yankees sluggers would get the better of Shields and TB would get a few off CC.

[Love The Action]

any thoughts in the TULSA / PHOENIX total. i see the line dropping a little. t

Yeah, I mentioned above I lean to the over, but no play for me because I haven't had a chance to really cap WNBA today. In their last game, Phoenix shot 47% and Tulsa about 35%. I think Phoenix explodes today with a 50%+ shooting day in hitting 100 and the pace will be quick enough for Tulsa to get 80.

[Love The Action]

MLB 7/10/11

Play#1

Seattle/Los Angeles under (6)(+100) 5x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 2.5x play under new unit scale).

There are some concerns with this play. The ump has a big over lean. Plus, both pitchers have thrown a lot of pitches in their last 3-5 starts easily eclipsing 115 in each. Hernandez has gone over in all of this games this year set with a total of 6 and he has not pitched well historically against the Angels. With that said, however, both of these pitchers are no worse than top 20 MLB (and mostly top 10) in BABIP, WHIP, FIP, xFIP, tERA, they both get strikeouts (especially when needed) and both throw ground balls as evidenced by both having a GB/FB ratio above 1.15. Both the Mariners and Angels are huge under teams with both having solid fielding statistics rated in top 15 in MLB, unspectacular hitting stats with Seattle ranked 30th in MLB and Angels more mid-of-the-pack at 16th and bullpens that are solid with Seattle rated in top 10 and LA in top 15. I don't see this series escaping without at least one under hitting and if it's going to happen it has to be today with two of the best in MLB facing off. I think the intangibles in this game are strong with neither pitcher wanting to be outdone in their last start before the all star break. I think we see a classic pitcher's duel today with a 2-1 type of game. I have it capped at 5, so I will roll with the value of having 6 at plus odds. Good luck.

Play #2

Padres ML (-103) 2x (Locked) (Note: this is about a 1x play under new unit scale)

The Dodgers have beaten the Padres in back to back days 1-0. I don't forsee that happening again with such a disparity in starting pitching. Stauffer is a legitimate stud this year and Lilly has generally been a dud. Stauffer is top 30 in MLB in WHIP, xERA, FIP and xFIP. I think the most striking difference is in the batted ball differentials. Stauffer has a GB/FB ratio over 2, while Lilly is under 1. That makes a bet on Lilly cost-prohibitive and gives us value on the Padres in this spot. Padres have a top 5 bullpen and somewhat comparable offensive stats to the Dodgers. I think the intangibles go the Padres in this spot after losing the last two so close and I just don't see the Dodgers pulling off the sweep. I'm rolling Padres all the way. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Wow...another push. That is our fifth push in the last ten days, costing us over 23x in profit. That's how important beating the closer is and how close we have come to turning our recent down time into great profit. These close games will start to go our way soon.

[tom1234]

LTA , do you have a chance to cap MLB Sunday night game, what are you playing ?