LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

We should start using that method for the next season, bet the game total then place another for the 2nd half for these middle and hedge opportunities. Would this method be considered +ev?

The applicable expected value can only be determined on a game-by-game basis based on pace, shooting, teams, players, coaching, refs, etc. Plus, the playoffs are different from the regular season in that you will generally see a lower scoring 2h in the playoffs and in the refular season it is much more unpredictable.

Now, if someone has done some research and determined an edge based on a certain situational trend, then perhasp their could be positive expected value regardless of the other applicable factors. However, something like that is rare and I don't think is even possible.

[ParlayKing]

what i was thinking was similar to the situation right now in the bulls game. Bet under for the game then bet over for the 2nd half creating a situation were you can only break even or win. Not quite sure what im even talking about, help me out! Think i might be onto something lol

[Love The Action]

what i was thinking was similar to the situation right now in the bulls game. Bet under for the game then bet over for the 2nd half creating a situation were you can only break even or win. Not quite sure what im even talking about, help me out! Think i might be onto something lol

If you are just talking about doing it here and there were a good situation arises, then yeah, I think it might work out for you if you are good at totals and have a hedge range of 10 points at halftime. However, to do it on a day in and day out basis, that is a lot more work because you have to watch and track every game you bet on. Plus, you will not always have a hedge opportunity because some games will be on a big over or under pace. I don't see it being a profitable long term proposition but is better utilized here and there where you see a particularly good situation with a large hedge range.

[NBA_Brosuf]

what i was thinking was similar to the situation right now in the bulls game. Bet under for the game then bet over for the 2nd half creating a situation were you can only break even or win. Not quite sure what im even talking about, help me out! Think i might be onto something lol

You are talking about a potential free play in the range between the under early buy and the over 2h buy right?

I think I know what you are saying but something is missing in such views. I'm not too sure what is yet but something is missing or else it would be that much too easy wouldn't it?

Just hunt situation plays like that only for the win? Putting a margin of at least 10 points to win both ways? I dunno

[ParlayKing]

I will keep note and post a thread when it arises, good to know thou!

[Love The Action]

I will keep note and post a thread when it arises, good to know thou!

That would be great. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

AZ +150(1x)

Good luck. I backed them successfully yesterday, but don't see it today. Owings blows and Mortensen has been pitching well whether out of the pen or starting. Plus, after the tough loss yesterday, I think the rockies bounce back today at home. If I don't play colorado, I will be rooting for you.

Great call on AZ so far ..up 4-1 in the 7th...glad I decided not to play Colorado.

[Love The Action]

Kurt Thoms coming up big for the Bulls. If you remember, I was asking for more time for him to come in during game 3 and game 4. He now has 4 offensive rebounds, eight in all, in only 11 minutes. That's a great contribution.

[Love The Action]

One minute left, 20 point cushion. Unreal bad luck if this goes to OT.

[Love The Action]

Someone will have to talk me off the ledge if this goes into OT

[Love The Action]

Phew...cash it!!!

[ParlayKing]

wow the bulls pulled an okc.. the under hit thou

[ColdBeerHere]

Nice job LTA ! well done once again, thanks

[IceSlipper]

Phew...cash it!!!

Close one! OT looked likely for a second there!

Bring on Mavs-Heat!

[suicidekings]

Phew...cash it!!!

Nice hit. I just sat this one out tonight other than the Bulls 1Q bet. Really did not see that ending coming. I left the room and they were up 10, came back and it was tied... Looks like it's just about time to switch my attention to baseball again...

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/25/11

Heat/Bulls under (180) 10x (Locked) WINNER

I actually locked this in earlier in the morning when it opened and I'm happy getting the 180. I suspect we may see 180.5 at some point, but I was not willing to risk losing the 180 by waiting. Plus, I think the total ends up dropping sometime before tip.

I forsee a very similar game to yesterday, without the bullshit OT. Yesterday's game ended in regulation with a total of 170 and I see no reason why we won't see a final score around that number again. If the ref assignments lean under, I may add a unit or two.

Both teams are now fully focused on defense. It's clear the Bulls are having trouble scoring against Miami and when the Bulls play their game, Miami is limited on offense as well. Miami has figured out that doubling Rose off the pick completely throws him out of rhythm and Rose's Bulls teammates have proven unable to hit open shots this series. Perhaps that changes now that they are back in Chicago but even if they hit a few more shots, this game should still stay under. The only risk to our play here is the refs and their favoritism towards the Heat. Hopefully, that does not lead to more than 50 ft attempts.

As long as both teams shoot (i) a collective 45% or under on 140 - 150 fg attempts, (ii) 34% on about 20-28 three point attempts and (iii) 75% on about 50 or so free throw attempts, we shouldn't see more than 175 total points in this game. Because I think we see similar numbers tomorrow, I am rolling with the under.

We also have trends that support this play, whether it is the elimination game under trend or the trend for Bulls games to go under in Chicago against playoff caliber teams or the general trend for this matchup to go under in Chicago.

The pace has been set in the last couple games and I don't see these two teams deciding to play quicker tomorrow. Even if they do, this series has been filled with offensive ineptitude, and could easily stay under. I should have some more thoughts on the individual player matchups that I expect a little later. Good luck.

NBA 5/26/11

1 - 0 = +10x

In this thread:

20 - 15 = +38.5

Series bets:

0 - 1 = -5x

(I do not include my series bets in my overall record or unit totals as those are in a separate category for my own bookkeeping purposes).

An easy 10x winner on the Bulls under...not even close with a final total of 163. We remain hot on our plays of 10x or more and keep knocking out nice profit in the playoffs. We are up over 60x now on the playoffs as a whole, due to hitting over 70% of our plays of 10x or more (including 2 OT under losers). This Dallas/Heat series should be interesting.

Who does everyone like? I lean Dallas but will be interested to see the opening series price.

[suicidekings]

Probably a series play on whoever loses Game 1.

[Love The Action]

Nice hit. I just sat this one out tonight other than the Bulls 1Q bet. Really did not see that ending coming. I left the room and they were up 10, came back and it was tied... Looks like it's just about time to switch my attention to baseball again...

I loved the under tonight. I should have put more than 10x on it, but hindsight is 20/20. OT would have really hurt.

Nice job on your 1q winner. I'm actually looking forward to this Dallas/Heat series. I think we can see some classic games and some good value on the totals. I will be interested to see where they open the total in this series. Without having capped the series yet, I would say the opening total will be in the 187 range. I have a really strong lean for this first game.

I love MLB...just been up and down this week. MLB is a grind though and more profit for me is generally made toward the end of the year when the playoff races begin.

What about hockey? Will you be playing the Canucks?

[tom1234]

LTA ,you are the best ,thank you sir

[Love The Action]

LTA ,you are the best ,thank you sir

Glad I could help dude

[ParlayKing]

Im so angry the bulls lost, i hope dallas puts miami away!

[NBA_Brosuf]

Probably a series play on whoever loses Game 1.

That is a good system play there. I can see the value in it. Like Chicago win game 1 against heat. Prices of heat goes up and then buys heat to win the series.

LTA does it again. I will now formulating a new filter. When my total capping is against LTA, I'm going with LTA.

At least we can die together and win together.

[Love The Action]

Im so angry the bulls lost, i hope dallas puts miami away!

Yeah...but you have to approach the series with impartiality and keep your disdain for the Heat out of your capping. If I play Dallas, it will be because I truly believe them to have the best chance to win. I think there will be some really good opportunities to make some big total bets...starting with game one.

[ParlayKing]

Lets see what number we get, but if its around 187-190 i would love the over. Following the Game 1 Over trend.

[Love The Action]

Lets see what number we get, but if its around 187-190 i would love the over. Following the Game 1 Over trend.

[ParlayKing]

I smell a 197-198 game for game 1 of the Heat/Dallas series.

[ParlayKing]

lets dig up some regular season stats and start our homework early!

[BookieOweMe]

lets get this money.

[suicidekings]

I loved the under tonight. I should have put more than 10x on it, but hindsight is 20/20. OT would have really hurt.

Nice job on your 1q winner. I'm actually looking forward to this Dallas/Heat series. I think we can see some classic games and some good value on the totals. I will be interested to see where they open the total in this series. Without having capped the series yet, I would say the opening total will be in the 187 range. I have a really strong lean for this first game.

I love MLB...just been up and down this week. MLB is a grind though and more profit for me is generally made toward the end of the year when the playoff races begin.

What about hockey? Will you be playing the Canucks?

I make spot plays on the Canucks. They're the only team in any sport that I really follow closely and I don't want my fan bias to get in the way of betting or for betting to get in the way of enjoying the games. From October through May, 80%+ of my attention goes to the NBA, 10% on NFL/NCAAF, 10% on NHL. My NHL model was re-built from scratch this year and actually performed extremely well in limited use.

As for baseball, I just don't watch much of it anymore so i don't really have a great feel for it. I always update/adjust my model over the NBA all star break every season to get it ready, and then use it selectively for the first few weeks to hammer out the kinks, just capping games that catch my eye. We finally have enough current season data to start incorporating it into the capping so I guess that will be my next few days while we're waiting on the NBA finals to start.

For the Dallas-Miami series, I capped the total at 193 and lean over from that number for the first game, but haven't given it a really in-depth look yet. I'd say Heat -5 in Miami and Mavs -4 in Dallas

[aunty jack]

lta: congrats on having a well run thread.

in particular, i like the fact that you don't get over inflated by big wins (like t'nite) and you take the inevitable losses on the chin. your summaries are also notable for their inclusive nature: "we are up x number of units"... "we are down etc".

before the sun sets on the nba season, i gotta' ask. who's the gun-toting bloke in the avatar? it makes me want to duck for cover every time i drop by.

[vincanity15]

Your fast becoming the king of the Over/Under Nba bets another nice win

[vinh diesel]

the OKC collapse (up 14 with 4min to go) and Chicago (up 11 with 3 min to go) got me talking to my self....

[suicidekings]

before the sun sets on the nba season, i gotta' ask. who's the gun-toting bloke in the avatar? it makes me want to duck for cover every time i drop by.

From the series "Breaking Bad".

[aunty jack]

ahhh. thanx for that. 'breaking bad' hasn't made it to australian t-v to my knowledge.

our programing is a bit behind the rest of the world. we're still waiting to see if gilligan and the skipper ever make it off the island.

spoiler alert - don't ruin it for me!

[suicidekings]

ahhh. thanx for that. 'breaking bad' hasn't made it to australian t-v to my knowledge.

our programing is a bit behind the rest of the world. we're still waiting to see if gilligan and the skipper ever make it off the island.

spoiler alert - don't ruin it for me!

Watch the Pilot here. You won't regret it.