LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[aunty jack]

cheers. much appreciated.

good luck to all with your week-end plays.

[Krazymojo]

anyone have a good link for free live stream movies really wanna see hangover 2 to help with this bulls loss

[Krazymojo]

SF/MIL under 6.5 (-105) 1x

[Krazymojo]

Cardinals ML(+135) 1x

[GTS925]

Thank you very much LTA!

[suicidekings]

Day 1 back in the MLB... I played the following in a parlay just for fun (RL-1 played as MLs in parlay). $6 to win $1000. Bets with a star have been played straight for 0.5u each. Any input appreciated as I'm sure my baseball is rusty...

ATL RL-1 (-110)
ARI ML (-120)
*SFG/MIL U6.5 (-101)
COL RL-1 (-108)
*FLO/LAD O7.5 (-113)
*CLE/TAM U7.5 (-114)
OAK RL-1 (-111)
*SEA ML (-114)
NYY/SEA U7 (-125)

[csmkr18]

great work LTA!! Good luck on the final plays

[aussieH]

Breaking bad was showed on abc2 in Australia

[flush99]

Thanks for the picks, good luck today.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/26/11 Recap

2 - 4 = -.8x

In this thread:

60 - 57 = +3.95x

Nice winners with the White Sox and A's. However, we lost our under bet on KC/Bal in what turned out to be a really bad call as that was over in the first 5 innings. In addition, we lost our small .5x plays on KC, Detroit and the Reds. This has been a tough week so far as we have lost about 6x in MLB, however, most of that is directly attributable to our 1 - 6 day on Tuesday where we lost two total plays by the hook and two other ML plays in extra innings. We could have just as easily gone 5 - 2 or 6 - 1 on that day. When you play a lot of big dogs, small dogs and small faves like me, you are going to have days like that. MLB is a long haul and the goal is to grind out weekly profit, which in turn adds up to monthly profit and seasonal profit. We don't change our process because we know it is profitable over the long haul. So what can you do? We just go back to the grind! We have a big card on tap for Friday and are excited about getting those games capped. We don't dwell on the negative because we know those 1 run extra inning losers and total plays that lose by the hook, will soon turn into winners that cash. After all, after a cold streak comes a hot streak and I suspect a hot streak is just around the corner. So, back to the grind! Good luck on everyone's plays today.

[Love The Action]

Krazymojo - great call on Arizona yesterday. Plus, Brandon Morrow really showed me something yesterday, and even though the White Sox won, I will have to start looking at Morrow a bit differently. I never thought much of him, but watched some of the game yesterday and liked what I saw. You mentioned Morrow is your guy. What do you know/like about him? Thanks.

[JR007]

Nice call on the under

[Love The Action]

I make spot plays on the Canucks. They're the only team in any sport that I really follow closely and I don't want my fan bias to get in the way of betting or for betting to get in the way of enjoying the games. From October through May, 80%+ of my attention goes to the NBA, 10% on NFL/NCAAF, 10% on NHL. My NHL model was re-built from scratch this year and actually performed extremely well in limited use.

As for baseball, I just don't watch much of it anymore so i don't really have a great feel for it. I always update/adjust my model over the NBA all star break every season to get it ready, and then use it selectively for the first few weeks to hammer out the kinks, just capping games that catch my eye. We finally have enough current season data to start incorporating it into the capping so I guess that will be my next few days while we're waiting on the NBA finals to start.

For the Dallas-Miami series, I capped the total at 193 and lean over from that number for the first game, but haven't given it a really in-depth look yet. I'd say Heat -5 in Miami and Mavs -4 in Dallas

I haven't capped the series or any of the games yet, but off the top of my head I though the books would open the series in the high 180's as they generally like to protect against sharp money on the under in the playoffs, but especially in the Championship where defense is key. If you have a fair line of 193, I suspect the books will be in that 188-190 range. If that ends up ringing true, I think we would have great value on the over.

As of this morning, the books opened at Heat -5 on the side but no total. I will be monitoring the line in hopes of catching that opening total.

Good luck with your Canucks. I think they roll. I'm not a huge hockey guy, but I monitor who is winning and losing and I just think the Canucks are the most complete team left. Plus, they are rolling right now. Ever since the Hawks series win in 7, they have not been tested. I think Boston would be the bigger challenge, but the Canucks should still triumph. I respect Canucks fans because they really get into it and live and die for their team so I'm going to root for them to get a Stanley Cup winner.

I love MLB, as that is probably my second most successful sport that I cap behind NBA. I also do well with college football totals. However, I had a down year in NFL this year and just feel the unpredictability of the NFL on a week to week basis makes it very difficult. I am going to try to play WNBA this year if my locals offer it.

Good luck on your MLB model. I hope it brings you some profit. I also look forward to hearing your MLB thoughts. Good luck!

[Love The Action]

Nice call on the under

Thanks

[Love The Action]

lta: congrats on having a well run thread.

in particular, i like the fact that you don't get over inflated by big wins (like t'nite) and you take the inevitable losses on the chin. your summaries are also notable for their inclusive nature: "we are up x number of units"... "we are down etc".

before the sun sets on the nba season, i gotta' ask. who's the gun-toting bloke in the avatar? it makes me want to duck for cover every time i drop by.

LOL, yeah, as SK mentioned, that is Walter White from Breaking Bad. Great show! I highly recommend it. Once you watch the first couple episodes, you will get hooked. Even my wife loves it! If you have AMC, you can usually catch reruns late on Thursday nights. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

SF/MIL under 6.5 (-105) 1x
Cardinals ML(+135) 1x

That would seem the obvious choice with Marcum going against Lincecum and will be a huge public play (over 90% of all bets on it now). However, with both teams hitting pretty well and playing in the Brewers dome, I'm not sure yet but seems the way to go. I still have to look at the game though. I like that you jumped on that early value with the Cards as that will probably come down. Good luck on all of your plays!

[Love The Action]

Thank you very much LTA!

Glad I could help

[Love The Action]

great work LTA!! Good luck on the final plays

Thanks for the picks, good luck today.

Good luck to you as well

[Love The Action]

Day 1 back in the MLB... I played the following in a parlay just for fun (RL-1 played as MLs in parlay). $6 to win $1000. Bets with a star have been played straight for 0.5u each. Any input appreciated as I'm sure my baseball is rusty...

ATL RL-1 (-110)
ARI ML (-120)
*SFG/MIL U6.5 (-101)
COL RL-1 (-108)
*FLO/LAD O7.5 (-113)
*CLE/TAM U7.5 (-114)
OAK RL-1 (-111)
*SEA ML (-114)
NYY/SEA U7 (-125)

I fell asleep on the couch after the game last night, so I haven't had a chance to check out the card yet. I will start capping on my commute into work and finish it off there. It should be a slow day, so I figured I would have time to get everything done before the early games.

That SF/Mil under play will be a huge public play. Both teams have hit well of late. But it's hard to doubt the under where Lincecum and Marcum pitching. Marcum is quitely having one of the best seasons of any pitcher this year. I was actually trying to figure out a way to back the Reds over Atlanta today. Leake sucks though. Arizona is rolling so at least you got that one early before the public sucks out all the value against the lowly Astros. Be careful against Brett Myers at home. Plus he has been a tough luck loser this year and especially of late - he has been pitching well. I love your Seattle call and will be locking that in soon. Probably one my biggest bets today. Good luck on all of your plays!

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/27/11

Seattle ML (-115) 2x (Locked)

Pineda v. Burnett, with the game in Seattle. I really like Seattle in this spot as a big public fade. Notice the price keeps going up on Seattle, despite over 80% of all bets on NY so far. There is a reason the big money is going on Seattle. If you have seen Pineda pitch, you will be impressed. He's a huge guy, that throws hard and has a nasty slider. Plus, when you factor in how well Seattle has been hitting, this play is no-brainer for me. This is a late game, so I will probably end up adding another unit here.

In general, I really like Seattle to end up contending this year. They have a great formula for success with great pitching and young hitting. With King Felix, Bedard, Pineda, Vargas and Fister, the Mariners have as good a starting staff as there is in baseball right now. I will probably play them every game of this series against the Yanks if the pitching matchups are favorable.

[Krazymojo]

MLB 5/27/11

Seattle ML (-115) 2x (Locked)

Pineda v. Burnett, with the game in Seattle. I really like Seattle in this spot as a big public fade. Notice the price keeps going up on Seattle, despite over 80% of all bets on NY so far. There is a reason the big money is going on Seattle. If you have seen Pineda pitch, you will be impressed. He's a huge guy, that throws hard and has a nasty slider. Plus, when you factor in how well Seattle has been hitting, this play is no-brainer for me. This is a late game, so I will probably end up adding another unit here.

In general, I really like Seattle to end up contending this year. They have a great formula for success with great pitching and young hitting. With King Felix, Bedard, Pineda, Vargas and Fister, the Mariners have as good a starting staff as there is in baseball right now. I will probably play them every game of this series against the Yanks if the pitching matchups are favorable.

Im staying away from this Seattle game Yanks been hitting pretty good even tho I agree with you....I hope to see them make a run too was thinking about puttin .5x for a future bet

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/31/11

Mavs/Heat over (186) (-120) 10x (locked)

Wow, total opened at 188 just as I predicted above and immediately started falling all the way to 186.5. Early money definitely on the under here, but that does not concern me where we have a strong trend backing this play and the days off will help push the pace.

I must admit that I don't even have the series capped yet, but I know buying the hook and getting 186 on the over will be the best value we will see as many books are already going back up to 187.

I am going to be aggressive here and play this for 10x because I like the 186 number and trust both teams will come out firing for this first game just like they did in opening games if their previous series. Defense and unders will come later in the series, but I like offense to get the party started. Writeup on series and first game to come this weekend. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/27/11

Pirates ml (-106) 1x (locked)

The cure for a struggling offense = Doug Davis. Good luck.

[suicidekings]

NBA 5/31/11

Mavs/Heat over (186) (-120) 10x (locked)

Wow, total opened at 188 just as I predicted above and immediately started falling all the way to 186.5. Early money definitely on the under here, but that does not concern me where we have a strong trend backing this play and the days off will help push the pace.

I must admit that I don't even have the series capped yet, but I know buying the hook and getting 186 on the over will be the best value we will see as many books are already going back up to 187.

I am going to be aggressive here and play this for 10x because I like the 186 number and trust both teams will come out firing for this first game just like they did in opening games if their previous series. Defense and unders will come later in the series, but I like offense to get the party started. Writeup on series and first game to come this weekend. Good luck.

This total is a joke. This game will break 190 with ease. On it as well.

[ParlayKing]

Agreed. Both teams have so much offensive punch. In addition I see both teams going to the free throw line often.

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/26/11

Padres/Wash under (7.5) (+ 105) 1x
Reds ml (+ 145) .5x
Reds/Braves under (7.5) (-115) .5x
Tigers ml (-110) .5x
Boston/Tigers under (9) .5x
(All Locked)

Good luck...more plays to come.

[Krazymojo]

you think it still drops i have it at 186(-105)?

[Krazymojo]

i mean (-115)

[Krazymojo]

following your mlb picks

[Krazymojo]

I really like Tampa tonight for game 7 I think they have a good chance at winning it all but it is just a lean....anybody have anything on that game tonight?

[Love The Action]

you think it still drops i have it at 186(-105)?

Nope...otherwise I would have waited. It won't go below 186 in my opinion.

[Krazymojo]

Mavs/Heat 186(-115) Over 10x Locked

[suicidekings]

I really like Tampa tonight for game 7 I think they have a good chance at winning it all but it is just a lean....anybody have anything on that game tonight?

As a canucks fan, I would much rather face Boston than Tampa, but I think you're right. I really don't think the Lightning are going to be denied tonight. The over 5.5 appeals to me as well.

[Love The Action]

Why tampa? Isn't boston the better team with the better goalie and playing at home? Or is that "public" thinking?

[NBA_Brosuf]

NBA 5/31/11

Mavs/Heat over (186) (-120) 10x (locked)

Wow, total opened at 188 just as I predicted above and immediately started falling all the way to 186.5. Early money definitely on the under here, but that does not concern me where we have a strong trend backing this play and the days off will help push the pace.

I must admit that I don't even have the series capped yet, but I know buying the hook and getting 186 on the over will be the best value we will see as many books are already going back up to 187.

I am going to be aggressive here and play this for 10x because I like the 186 number and trust both teams will come out firing for this first game just like they did in opening games if their previous series. Defense and unders will come later in the series, but I like offense to get the party started. Writeup on series and first game to come this weekend. Good luck.

I agreed. I'm on it with ya and the rest as well.