LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[JR007]

pinny at times ...wishes you to believe what they want you to believe...tricky stuff.....always good to review..the whole line history........and the day after as well.......things are not all they seem

[Love The Action]

pinny at times ...wishes you to believe what they want you to believe...tricky stuff.....always good to review..the whole line history........and the day after as well.......things are not all they seem

Are you speaking in general or specifically with this play?

All the books just dropped to 179.5 or are juicing the under heavy. I see no evidence of false moves in this case.

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/26/11

Royals/Orioles under (8.5) 1.5x (locked)

Royals ml (+145) .5x (locked)

Both starting pitchers come into this one hot and think we see the royals narrowly avoid the sweep in a low scoring affair. Good luck.

[mcwmiamisc]

Have the O's again today close 3-2 game but they finish the sweep !!

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/26/11

Royals/Orioles under (8.5) 1.5x (locked)

Royals ml (+145) .5x (locked)

Both starting pitchers come into this one hot and think we see the royals narrowly avoid the sweep in a low scoring affair. Good luck.

Reds ml (+ 140) .5x (locked)

Tigers ml (-115) .5x (locked)

Taking a flyer with the reds here as the kid bailey has been pitching well and thee reds should be extra motivated to win after losing a tough one yesterday.

I like backing Sherzer against a reliever in Aceves and think the tigers take this opening game.

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Ouch...lost the royals/orioles under and its not even the fifth inning...lets hope the royals can still pull out the win after being up 4-0 and giving up the lead.

Sherzer getting rocked as well. Not a good start on the bases, but we will have a few more plays to get this day back on track.

[JR007]

Are you speaking in general or specifically with this play?

All the books just dropped to 179.5 or are juicing the under heavy. I see no evidence of false moves in this case.

In general

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/26/11

Oakland ml (-110) 1x (locked)

[ColdBeerHere]

Hey LTA I'm a little late getting around to betting the under in the NBA game....My book is offering under 180 -117, and under 179.5 -104....

Would you pull the trigger (no pun intended) on either one of these lines ? thanks

[Love The Action]

Hey LTA I'm a little late getting around to betting the under in the NBA game....My book is offering under 180 -117, and under 179.5 -104....

Would you pull the trigger (no pun intended) on either one of these lines ? thanks

I would feel comfortable with either number as I have it capped at 175. I will let you decide which number to choose. When I have a big play, I generally never allow the hook to play a factor and will generally buy the hook as needed. In this case, you would not have to pay -120, so that may be the way to go if this is a big play for you. Bol..

[Love The Action]

Mlb 5/26/11

White Sox ml (+142) 1x

Humber has been put pitching well and is now pitching for his major league life with peavy back. I expect a good performance and the sox to knock morrow around. Good luck.

[NBA_Brosuf]

What makes you think early sharp money is on the over? The total opened at 180 and has stayed there. Pinny opened at -105 on both sides, but is now juicing the under heavier than the over despite more total action on the over. The same with Matchbook. 5D opened at -110, started juicing the under at -107 to the over at -103, and is now juicing both at -105. Bookmaker opened lower than the rest of the books by opening at 179.5. The move up to 180 for them was more about having the same number as the rest of the market as opposed to receiving a ton of money on the over. I would suspect that right now, despite taking more bets on the over, the books are receiving equal or more money on the under.

While I expect the line to go up to 180.5 at some point today, I also expect it to drop back down to 180 or 179.5 before tip. If you don't have time to monitor the lines, you should buy now at 180 if you like the under. Good luck bud...

I thought total opens at 179.5?

I don't have the best tool to see whether sharps or public is playing early on the over but yesterday, I saw about 82% of somebody on the over which drives the line up to 180. Right now, the public is buying under and we have equal action on both sides and line lost half a point and back down to 179.5

I'm still learning how to read these line movements and would rather ride with sharps than public.

I really don't know what this all means but I need to make a decision fast. I know that this guy here Greg Willard is an over candidate.

If we are on different sides, I'm going to learn my lesson and just play it small. Thanks for the lesson LTA.

[SimonSayz]

I think the Bulls can win 4-3. Tonight is the night where they will unleash the Beast. Brian Scalarine. The man, the myth, the legend.

Scalabrine is a Bulls icon.

[Krazymojo]

nooooooooo dont go against my guy morrow lol

[Krazymojo]

AZ +150(1x)

[Broken-Ear Glen]

nooooooooo dont go against my guy morrow lol

How is he your "guy?" Usually people's "guys" are good players...

[Love The Action]

Scalabrine is a Bulls icon.

He is the spiritual leader of the bench mob

[Love The Action]

AZ +150(1x)

Good luck. I backed them successfully yesterday, but don't see it today. Owings blows and Mortensen has been pitching well whether out of the pen or starting. Plus, after the tough loss yesterday, I think the rockies bounce back today at home. If I don't play colorado, I will be rooting for you.

[Love The Action]

nooooooooo dont go against my guy morrow lol

Really? What do you like about Morrow?

[Love The Action]

I thought total opens at 179.5?

I don't have the best tool to see whether sharps or public is playing early on the over but yesterday, I saw about 82% of somebody on the over which drives the line up to 180. Right now, the public is buying under and we have equal action on both sides and line lost half a point and back down to 179.5

I'm still learning how to read these line movements and would rather ride with sharps than public.

I really don't know what this all means but I need to make a decision fast. I know that this guy here Greg Willard is an over candidate.

If we are on different sides, I'm going to learn my lesson and just play it small. Thanks for the lesson LTA.

You can't base an entire play on the refs and willard was the only one of the 3 refs who favored the over. Refs are only one part of a complicated equation.

Remember to check each books line movement from open to close in order to get the full picture of where the money is. Most books opened at 180.

Once you know where the public is betting and how the line moved in
response, it should be fairly easy for
you to read the line moves and tell
where the smart money is. Like
anything, this is a learned skill and you
will get better at it over time. Good luck.

[Rolo1984]

You can't base an entire play on the refs and willard was the only one of the 3 refs who favored the over. Refs are only one part of a complicated equation.

Remember to check each books line movement from open to close in order to get the full picture of where the money is. Most books opened at 180.

Once you know where the public is betting and how the line moved in
response, it should be fairly easy for
you to read the line moves and tell
where the smart money is. Like
anything, this is a learned skill and you
will get better at it over time. Good luck.

Did you ever make a database where you can find a strong correlation with fading public and being succesfull in totals? For example how often does the public lose when 90% is on a side, when 80%, 70% etc...

[Love The Action]

Did you ever make a database where you can find a strong correlation with fading public and being succesfull in totals? For example how often does the public lose when 90% is on a side, when 80%, 70% etc...

Nope...

I doubt there is a correlation. The total percentage does not matter. What matters is your ability to analyze the line moves in relation to those percentages in order to determine which side has more smart money. But again, this is only one tool you should use out of a vast array of factors at our disposal to beat the books. Bol...

[MrXYZ]

My book had it at 180 -114 but decided to wait & took the under 179.5 @-110. Congrats LTA on hitting the OKC/DAL under & Good Luck everyone today!

Got a small parlay for this game which I hope pays off,we'll see.

[Rolo1984]

not playing the total today?

[Love The Action]

not playing the total today?

Yep...I'm on the under for 10x. Locked it in and posted yesterday morning. Good luck!

[BookieOweMe]

not playing the total today?

think he locked it for 10x

[tom1234]

not playing the total today?

he is playing under 180 for 10x

[Half_Glassed]

Mate what do you think of the line. Miami +3.5 or Bulls -3.5?

[Rolo1984]

Yep...I'm on the under for 10x. Locked it in and posted yesterday morning. Good luck!

thought it was the one of game 4

my mistake

[Love The Action]

thought it was the one of game 4

my mistake

No worries. I will remind everyone next time I lock in a play on the opening number.

[nmodi]

ru 10X on this under????? opps i also missed that...i m small on under ...lets cash this LTA......

[Love The Action]

ru 10X on this under????? opps i also missed that...i m small on under ...lets cash this LTA......

Yep...I loved it and locked it in for 10x when it opened on Wednesday morning. Sorry...like I said, I will start updating my plays before the game when I lock them in really early like this one.

Let's just hope it hits...they are playing right at the number right now. However, as you know, these two teams generally, score small in the first quarter, big in the second quarter and then slow in 2h. Good luck bud!

[Love The Action]

Really? What do you like about Morrow?

Krazymojo - good call with Morrow tonight. Both pitchers pitched well enough to win. Win or lose for either of us, I think Morrow really showed something tonight. Humber pitched well, but now Bautista is up in the bottom of the eigth with a runner on first. Good luck...but not too much

[Love The Action]

Anyone going to shoot for the middle? 2h total is 89.5. That's like having a game line of 173. Do you think final score will end between 173 and 180.

I'm not willing to take the chance, but think it's a great opportunity for a hedge because, as I said earlier, I have this game capped at 175.

[ParlayKing]

We should start using that method for the next season, bet the game total then place another for the 2nd half for these middle and hedge opportunities. Would this method be considered +ev?