LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #1191
    Originally posted by panik
    Tailing today just today

    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #1192
      NBA 5/25/11

      Heat/Bulls under (180) 10x (Locked)

      I actually locked this in earlier in the morning when it opened and I'm happy getting the 180. I suspect we may see 180.5 at some point, but I was not willing to risk losing the 180 by waiting. Plus, I think the total ends up dropping sometime before tip.

      I forsee a very similar game to yesterday, without the bullshit OT. Yesterday's game ended in regulation with a total of 170 and I see no reason why we won't see a final score around that number again. If the ref assignments lean under, I may add a unit or two.

      Both teams are now fully focused on defense. It's clear the Bulls are having trouble scoring against Miami and when the Bulls play their game, Miami is limited on offense as well. Miami has figured out that doubling Rose off the pick completely throws him out of rhythm and Rose's Bulls teammates have proven unable to hit open shots this series. Perhaps that changes now that they are back in Chicago but even if they hit a few more shots, this game should still stay under. The only risk to our play here is the refs and their favoritism towards the Heat. Hopefully, that does not lead to more than 50 ft attempts.

      As long as both teams shoot (i) a collective 45% or under on 140 - 150 fg attempts, (ii) 34% on about 20-28 three point attempts and (iii) 75% on about 50 or so free throw attempts, we shouldn't see more than 175 total points in this game. Because I think we see similar numbers tomorrow, I am rolling with the under.

      We also have trends that support this play, whether it is the elimination game under trend or the trend for Bulls games to go under in Chicago against playoff caliber teams or the general trend for this matchup to go under in Chicago.

      The pace has been set in the last couple games and I don't see these two teams deciding to play quicker tomorrow. Even if they do, this series has been filled with offensive ineptitude, and could easily stay under. I should have some more thoughts on the individual player matchups that I expect a little later. Good luck.
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #1193
        Here we go again. One minute left, with a 10 point cushion.
        Comment
        • mick13x
          SBR Rookie
          • 04-29-11
          • 22

          #1194
          Drinks on me boys. Thanks for the play LTA.
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #1195
            Originally posted by Love The Action
            Here we go again. One minute left, with a 10 point cushion.
            Cash it! It's nice to get some bounces go our way...
            Comment
            • GTS925
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-10
              • 1158

              #1196
              Thanks LTA, it pushed for 3 seconds then they deducted 2 points from the final score. Lucky.
              Comment
              • Love The Action
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 11-08-10
                • 10952

                #1197
                Originally posted by GTS925
                Thanks LTA, it pushed for 3 seconds then they deducted 2 points from the final score. Lucky.
                I had 199, so that last shot didn't really matter for me but I'm glad they took it off the board for you and everyone else out there who had under 198...
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #1198
                  Gotta really consider a hedge bet on the Heat tomorrow. I like the under no matter which team wins, so I don't see a correlation between one team and the under. Perhaps slightly to the Bulls, but nothing noteworthy. I'm just not sure tomorrow is the day. I think I would rather back them in Miami.

                  What is the current price you are seeing for Heat to win this series/EC?
                  Comment
                  • FishFace5
                    SBR MVP
                    • 10-15-09
                    • 1768

                    #1199
                    good stuff LTA .
                    Bout time we won a squeaker
                    Comment
                    • vincanity15
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 01-31-11
                      • 762

                      #1200
                      I had the 199 and got 210 live also
                      Comment
                      • vincanity15
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 01-31-11
                        • 762

                        #1201
                        -1600 for the heat to win east i see

                        and -1200 somewhere else that i just checked.
                        Comment
                        • Love The Action
                          SBR Posting Legend
                          • 11-08-10
                          • 10952

                          #1202
                          Originally posted by FishFace5
                          good stuff LTA .
                          Bout time we won a squeaker

                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #1203
                            Originally posted by vincanity15
                            I had the 199 and got 210 live also
                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #1204
                              Originally posted by vincanity15
                              -1600 for the heat to win east i see

                              and -1200 somewhere else that i just checked.
                              Yep..that's just about what I expected. Neither of my locals has those up right now. Thanks.
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #1205
                                NBA 5/25/11 Recap

                                1 - 0 = +10x

                                In this thread:

                                19 - 15 = +28.5x

                                A close winner with the OKC/Dallas under, to make up for the OT loser the night before. We'll take it and move onto another big play tomorrow in our 10x play on the Bulls/Heat under 180. I always say it's always about the big plays. If you can hit those at a higher rate, you pretty much need to just tread water the rest of the time. However, I like to keep my overall winning percentage above 55% at all times, so we get back to that level with tonight's win. Tomorrow should be fun and should help us get over that +35x goal I have had for this thread.

                                MLB 5/25/22 Recap

                                3-1 = -1.05

                                In this thread:

                                58 - 53 = +4.75

                                Oh man...what might have been...we could have gone a beautiful 5-0 on the day, including our NBA play, and profited over 18x tonight if the freeking Pirates would have won. Instead, we lost our first big play of the MLB season in the 5x loser on the Pirates. They had the game won and just blew it in 11 innings. If a runner didn't get picked off first, they would have won in 9 innings. I feel like it was a good call, but because it didn't cash that doesn't matter. Oh well, we mount a nice recovery with our 2x winner on Seattle and 1x winners on Arizona and San Diego. It's time to get back to our more consistent winning ways in MLB. I do not want this up and down to continue. Good luck tomorrow.
                                Comment
                                • suicidekings
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 03-23-09
                                  • 9962

                                  #1206
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Gotta really consider a hedge bet on the Heat tomorrow. I like the under no matter which team wins, so I don't see a correlation between one team and the under. Perhaps slightly to the Bulls, but nothing noteworthy. I'm just not sure tomorrow is the day. I think I would rather back them in Miami.

                                  What is the current price you are seeing for Heat to win this series/EC?
                                  I'm in the same boat as you. Seems to me that the best way to go about this is a small play on the Heat ML tomorrow (+145, but likely to rise) or even a parlay with the total, which would pay out in the +370 range. Small investment to cover the bulk of the original amount risked and not out a lot if the Bulls stay alive. Still thinking it over.
                                  Comment
                                  • NBA_Brosuf
                                    Restricted User
                                    • 02-14-11
                                    • 2489

                                    #1207
                                    Boom shakalaka winner

                                    Most games have that funky fouling game within the last minute when you are behind. It has occurred to me that last night's game in Dallas, there were no fouling game at all. I think the way the ball flew high in the sky after many tips for lose ball shaved off the clock and Terry running the other way also killed off the clock.

                                    could of been ugly and we had enough beating. Finally some justice.
                                    Comment
                                    • JR007
                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                      • 02-21-10
                                      • 5279

                                      #1208
                                      Respect you for posting a honest record LTA........too many in here want to be KING CAPPER......NOT A REALISTIC EXPECTATION
                                      Comment
                                      • NBA_Brosuf
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 02-14-11
                                        • 2489

                                        #1209
                                        Originally posted by JR007
                                        Respect you for posting a honest record LTA........too many in here want to be KING CAPPER......
                                        Hey, what about me JR? I'm honest too. LOL

                                        Well you have to teach me more about this line movement thingy because I'm seeing early line with sharps(?) buying the over heavily which drives up that total prices. Public will play by tomorrow and it will be interesting if public and sharps on the same side or opposite end.

                                        I don't know. Maybe LTA can share some light into this.
                                        Comment
                                        • flush99
                                          SBR Hustler
                                          • 03-20-11
                                          • 80

                                          #1210
                                          Very good call on Arizona. WOW
                                          Comment
                                          • Love The Action
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 11-08-10
                                            • 10952

                                            #1211
                                            Originally posted by suicidekings
                                            I'm in the same boat as you. Seems to me that the best way to go about this is a small play on the Heat ML tomorrow (+145, but likely to rise) or even a parlay with the total, which would pay out in the +370 range. Small investment to cover the bulk of the original amount risked and not out a lot if the Bulls stay alive. Still thinking it over.

                                            I agree that, our best hedge opportunity is the Heat ML tonight. A Heat ML parlay with the under, would pay about 3.5x for every 1x risked. The problem is, I'm just not sold on the Heat winning this game. I do not deny in any way that the Bulls have been thoroughly exposed for not having anyone that can make a clutch shot or create off the dribble other than Rose. Even his play has been spotty and suspect. However, in Chicago, after losing three in a row, I just think the Bulls might pull this off to lose in 6 in Miami. I would hate to bet the Heat tonight and actually have the Bullls win. Consequently, I may just put my future stake at risk and not hedge tonight. If I can hit the under tonight, I still will have profited on this series regardless of my futures outcome (it basically makes my under wager worth 5x if the Heat win tonight as long as the under hits as well). If I look at it that way, I don't feel so bad. Profit is profit...

                                            I need to think long and hard about this situation...if you can, please post what you decide to do in here at some point before tip. Thanks.
                                            Comment
                                            • Love The Action
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-08-10
                                              • 10952

                                              #1212
                                              Originally posted by flush99
                                              Very good call on Arizona. WOW
                                              Thanks...Kennedy had been pitching lights out lately, while Hammel had been getting shelled. Plus, Arizon as a team was hot going in against a cold Rocks team. Nevertheless, to go up in the four game series 2-1 was big for the Diamondbacks. I'll take it. Wish I would have put more at stake to make up for that damn Pirates game
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #1213
                                                Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf

                                                Well you have to teach me more about this line movement thingy because I'm seeing early line with sharps(?) buying the over heavily which drives up that total prices. Public will play by tomorrow and it will be interesting if public and sharps on the same side or opposite end.

                                                I don't know. Maybe LTA can share some light into this.
                                                What makes you think early sharp money is on the over? The total opened at 180 and has stayed there. Pinny opened at -105 on both sides, but is now juicing the under heavier than the over despite more total action on the over. The same with Matchbook. 5D opened at -110, started juicing the under at -107 to the over at -103, and is now juicing both at -105. Bookmaker opened lower than the rest of the books by opening at 179.5. The move up to 180 for them was more about having the same number as the rest of the market as opposed to receiving a ton of money on the over. I would suspect that right now, despite taking more bets on the over, the books are receiving equal or more money on the under.

                                                While I expect the line to go up to 180.5 at some point today, I also expect it to drop back down to 180 or 179.5 before tip. If you don't have time to monitor the lines, you should buy now at 180 if you like the under. Good luck bud...
                                                Comment
                                                • Love The Action
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                  • 10952

                                                  #1214
                                                  Who do you guys like in the Marlins/Giants matchup today. Despite Vogelsong pitching so well lately (no runs in last three starts), I think Sanchez gets the better of him today. However, can the Giants really gets swept at home after losing in extra innings. Usually, this is a spot that I would love backing the Giants. Unfortunately, my gut tells me the fish get it done today. Thoughts?

                                                  I also lean Oakland and KC on the ML. Perhaps a few totals in MLB today as well. Good luck.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #1215
                                                    So...the Phillies and Reds played 18 innings yesterday and depleted both bullpens. Does that lead to the over today or does hot pitching Bailey and Lee shut the teams tired offenses down today? I can't decide, but I think we may see 8 or fewer runs today. The line is currently 7 but looking to rise, so that is something to keep an eye on.

                                                    Does anyone know the long term trends for runs scored in the game following an extra inning game of 15 innings or more? I would assume the trend favors the over, but not sure. We need to factor in that the position players may be tired as well.

                                                    As an FYI, SF and the Marlins also played to 12 innings yesterday. So we have a similar situation there. Something to keep an eye on. In each of the games, all four starters will need to go at least 7 innings for the unders to have any chance.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Krazymojo
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 12-01-10
                                                      • 444

                                                      #1216
                                                      I like Sanchez
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Krazymojo
                                                        SBR Sharp
                                                        • 12-01-10
                                                        • 444

                                                        #1217
                                                        how bout the royals?
                                                        Comment
                                                        • migz
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 02-11-10
                                                          • 1160

                                                          #1218
                                                          Refs are out -- M. Davis S. Foster G. Willard
                                                          Comment
                                                          • GTS925
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 11-06-10
                                                            • 1158

                                                            #1219
                                                            I think the Bulls can win 4-3. Tonight is the night where they will unleash the Beast. Brian Scalarine. The man, the myth, the legend.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Love The Action
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 11-08-10
                                                              • 10952

                                                              #1220
                                                              Originally posted by Krazymojo
                                                              how bout the royals?
                                                              I do lean royals, but not sure quite yet.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • IceSlipper
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 05-26-11
                                                                • 117

                                                                #1221
                                                                Thoughts on refs for bulls heat LTA? My book currently has the o/u at 180.5! about to lock it!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • GTS925
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 11-06-10
                                                                  • 1158

                                                                  #1222
                                                                  Why aren't the public pounding the over?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Love The Action
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                                    • 10952

                                                                    #1223
                                                                    Originally posted by migz
                                                                    Refs are out -- M. Davis S. Foster G. Willard
                                                                    Yeah...no big help or hindrance. Let me take a closer look later this morning. Thanks.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • IceSlipper
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 05-26-11
                                                                      • 117

                                                                      #1224
                                                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                                      Yeah...no big help or hindrance. Let me take a closer look later this morning. Thanks.
                                                                      Hmm.. Thought Willard slightly favored the over.. Nevertheless, gonna be locking the under at 180.5, so i can head to bed and get up before the game (Australia !). BOL guys!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Love The Action
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                                        • 10952

                                                                        #1225
                                                                        Originally posted by GTS925
                                                                        Why aren't the public pounding the over?
                                                                        Its about 60/40 favoring the over everywhere, but the line is about to drop as the books are starting to juice the under pretty heavy. All good signs. God luck!
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        Search
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...