LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/13/11

Oakland ML (-120) .5x (Locked) LOSS

Red Sox ML (-103) 1x (Locked) WINNER

Phil/Atl Over (7) .5x (Locked) WINNER

CWS/Oak Over (7.5) .5x (Locked) LOSS

Tor/Min Under (8) 1x (Locked)
Adding 1.5x to Tor/Min Under (got 7.5 now) for a total of 2.5x on this play WINNER

MLB 5/13/11

3 - 2 = +2.8x

In this thread:

32 - 23 = +12.8x

We cash a nice 2.5x play on the under between the Blue Jays and Twins yesterday, with both Romero and Pavano pitching really well just as predicted. Our MLB plays stay consistent with providing profit on a day to day basis. Baseball is a grind and you need to keep churning out as many plus unit days as possible. That is what we have done and plan on continuing to do. Baseball was my first love in sports as a child and it's one of my favorites to cap. Therefore, I'm really looking forward to the rest of this season. I love that MLB has returned to real baseball with pitching and defense reigning supreme. I absolutely hated the juiced ball/juiced player era with all the inflated numbers, so this return to pitching-dominance and 3-2 type games really makes it a lot more fun to cap.

[flush99]

Better tomorrow. Good luck

[Love The Action]

Better tomorrow. Good luck

You know it! I think we're going to have a hugely profitable series in the Eastern Conference Finals, both on the series play and the game by game totals bets. I may even play a few more sides that unusual.

Good luck on all your plays today.

[Love The Action]

I made this play before the playoffs as my only futures bet. I am posting here for my records, since this has essentially become my sports investing diary.

BULLS (+150) 1.5x to win the Eastern Conference (Locked)

It seems I could have waited and gotten +180 today, however, I liked the Bulls before the playoffs and I like them now. Most would probably say the Heat, however, I think the jury is out until they can win a game in Boston. Even then, if they do make it to the Bulls, I don't see them taking one in Chicago. I am contemplating adding to this play and will update accordingly. Good luck.

BULLS (+160) to Win the Easter Conference Finals over the Heat 3.5x (Locked)

Writeup to come sometime today.

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/15/11

OKC/Mem Over (191.5) 1.5x (Locked)

A risky play here for sure. This line opened up at 193 and immediately started falling. Listen, we all know why this could go under. These teams have played to two straight unders, but you could really call it four because two of the last four games have gone into overtime. Neither team has looked good offensively lately. Plus, this is a game 7 elimination game. Everything screams under.

However, I'm going to buck all those trends and ride the over here for a small 1.5x. Perhaps we add .5x more after the ref assignments are released but before the line moves back up. I'm locking it in now because I don't think we'll get the chance to get 191.5 or less moving forward. I expect some money to come in on the over and the closing line to be 192 or more.

At the end of the day, a 191.5 number for a total in this matchup provides huge value if, and that's a pretty big IF, these two teams can both play decent offensively in the same game. We won't need 50% shooting performances from these two teams to cash the over, however, we will need a collective 43% shooting percentage at the average pace for this matchup. I think we have a big performance from Durant, at home, to bounceback from a horrible day. Our game 6 over call was on pace to cash at halftime, however, OKC only scored 29 points in the second half. If Durant plays to his average, we cash that game.

I think both teams put together a solid offensive game tomorrow and this game should squeak over. I would expect a close game, but OKC coming out on top in the end. Good luck.

[tom1234]

LTA , will you have some mlb plays today

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/14/11

Sea/Cle Under (8) 1x (Locked)

Seattle ML (+120) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot with Seattle and Bedard today. Seattle has lost 7 straight, but I think Bedard shows up ready to pitch against the hot Indians. White is a young phenom type for Cleveland and I expect him to pitch well just like Bedard. I expect a low scoring game with Seattle to come out on top. Bol...

[Love The Action]

LTA , will you have some mlb plays today

I like Seattle to win and the under to hit in that game. I will have more plays later as well. Good luck.

[vinh diesel]

MLB 5/14/11

Sea/Cle Under (8) 1x (Locked)

Seattle ML (+120) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot with Seattle and Bedard today. Seattle has lost 7 straight, but I think Bedard shows up ready to pitch against the hot Indians. White is a young phenom type for Cleveland and I expect him to pitch well just like Bedard. I expect a low scoring game with Seattle to come out on top. Bol...

we have the same picks today. you should really get a twitter account.

[Love The Action]

we have the same picks today. you should really get a twitter account.

Good luck -- currently rain delayed. This thread is more of my sports investing diary than anything else, so I don't forsee any twitter accounts.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/14/11

Sea/Cle Under (8) 1x (Locked)

Seattle ML (+120) 1x (Locked)

I'm going to take a shot with Seattle and Bedard today. Seattle has lost 7 straight, but I think Bedard shows up ready to pitch against the hot Indians. White is a young phenom type for Cleveland and I expect him to pitch well just like Bedard. I expect a low scoring game with Seattle to come out on top. Bol...

SD/Col Under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I like this pitching matchup with Chacin and Harang. This total is set lower than the standard 9.5 for Colorado home games, plus most books are juicing the under with the public on the over. I think we see a lean on the under from the books here. No doubt, that lean is warranted. Although the padres have been playing to the over recently, they are generally an under team. Colorado, while usually is an over team, has been cashing unders recently. I think we see a combo of the season trends on the Padres side and the recent trends on the Rockies end to get a game that stays under 8.5. Four of Harang's seven starts have ended under 8 runs and 5 of Chacin's seven have done the same. Harang won his last start 4-3 against Arizon and I think he keeps some positive momentum rolling and the same for Chacin and his recent performance. I think this one ends 5-2 or thereabouts. Good luck.

[Krazymojo]

what about the bulls to win it all???

[Love The Action]

SD/Col Under (8.5) 1x (Locked)

I like this pitching matchup with Chacin and Harang. This total is set lower than the standard 9.5 for Colorado home games, plus most books are juicing the under with the public on the over. I think we see a lean on the under from the books here. No doubt, that lean is warranted. Although the padres have been playing to the over recently, they are generally an under team. Colorado, while usually is an over team, has been cashing unders recently. I think we see a combo of the season trends on the Padres side and the recent trends on the Rockies end to get a game that stays under 8.5. Four of Harang's seven starts have ended under 8 runs and 5 of Chacin's seven have done the same. Harang won his last start 4-3 against Arizon and I think he keeps some positive momentum rolling and the same for Chacin and his recent performance. I think this one ends 5-2 or thereabouts. Good luck.

When I typed my password to lock this in, I assumed it went through and put my phone down. Now that I went to get a check different line, I just noticed that I must have hit a typo and the play never went though. I am so fvcking pissed right now. I know I just made a 1x mistake. Damnit...

I will keep it noted in the records win or loss for purposes of the thread. But this really pisses me off.

[Love The Action]

When I typed my password to lock this in, I assumed it went through and put my phone down. Now that I went to get a check different line, I just noticed that I must have hit a typo and the play never went though. I am so fvcking pissed right now. I know I just made a 1x mistake. Damnit...

I will keep it noted in the records win or loss for purposes of the thread. But this really pisses me off.

Geez...looks like I actually lucked out to not get this one in...Harang getting shelled. Very surprising...

[Love The Action]

AZ/LAD Under (6.5) (+105) .5x (Locked)

SF/Chi Under (7.5) .5x (Locked)

[Krazymojo]

Anything for tomorrow? MLB

[Krazymojo]

or for the game 7

[Love The Action]

I made this play before the playoffs as my only futures bet. I am posting here for my records, since this has essentially become my sports investing diary.

BULLS (+150) 1.5x to win the Eastern Conference (Locked)

BULLS (+160) to Win the Easter Conference Finals over the Heat 3.5x (Locked)

Writeup to come sometime today.

I think this play just comes down to value. Let's face it, this series is a 50/50 proposition because both teams could win. Consequently, there is no value in taking the Heat at -190. However, there is value in the Bulls at +160 because of the home court advantage. Here are the other reasons I like the Bulls:

1. Depth: While the Heat have two of the top three players on these two teams, the Bulls go ten deep which will allow for different matchups, spot plays and defensive adjustments that Thibodeau can use to his advantage. For example, when it was clear earlier on in the Atlanta series that Korver and Boozer were not able to match with some of the Hawks athleticism, he went with Asik and Brewer for the entire fourth quarter as a responsive adjustment that shut the Hawks down. The Heat don't have that flexibility. With Boozer healthy as evidenced by his recent performances, and Noah, Deng, Korver, Bogans, Gibson, Brewer, Asik and Watson, I think the Bulls have the flexibility to respond to in-game situations. James, Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Anthony, an old Z, Dampier, Miller and Bibby, just can't compare to the established rotation of the Bulls. What do the Heat do if Lebron and Wade both get in foul trouble early? I don't think they have a plan for such a situaiton and the Bulls will be aggressive in their offensive attack. Now, I'm not saying this isn't a close matchup. Lebron and Wade will most certainly get theirs. But for the full 48 minutes, I think the Bulls have the better rotation possibilities. This type of flexibility lends itself to the close games that we most certainly will see and the Bulls will take full advantage.
2. Defense: I give the edge just slightly to the Bulls on defense. These are two solid defensive teams. They both force turnovers in order to score in transition. On one hand, the Bulls have been exposed in these last two rounds by giving up too many unforced turnovers. If they continue this trend, they may not be able to survive. However, I think they shore up any sloppiness. Because of the athleticism, quickness, toughness and size down low, the Bulls present matchup problems for the Heat. We all expect the Bulls to cut off the Heat's access/points in the paint and force outside shots like the Celts did. However, with Deng's proven ability to defend Lebron with help and the Bulls perimeter defensive schemes, I think the Bulls will be more successful with this strategy. Miami will attempt to shut down Rose and assume no one else will hit their shots. That is what the Hawks did with some success. However, I think the Hawks posed more problems for the Bulls bench and role players than the Heat's bench. The Bulls bench will consistently outscore the Heat bench and will clamp down on the Heat's reserves when on defense. All things considered, I think the Bulls have a slight edge on defense. They will take the easy shots away from Lebron and Wade, force them to take low percentage shots and clamp down on everyone else. Thibs will have multiple schemes and this again gives us another reason to lean to the Bulls when considering overall defense.
3. Coaching: I don't think I need to go too in-depth with analysis here, do I? Thibs runs his ship with discipline and consistency. Spo, well, he tries. At the end of the day, Spo is more of a caretaker than a coach. He does not compare to the coach of the year in a lot of respects. I'm not saying Spo is horrible, but Thibs clearly has the edge in x's and o's, game-planning, in-game adjustments and game-to-game adjustments. I give the edge to the Bulls with coaching.
4. Rose: Rose presents problems for anyone, but especially for the Heat. They don't have one guy that can guard Rose. Everyone says, Chalmers and Lebron, but Rose's quickness will eat them up. I think the Bulls have a better chance of stopping Lebron than the Heat do to Rose. The problem is that the Heat can turn to Wade. This is why the Bulls depth and defense will be important to at least chip away at the superstars. Nevertheless, regardless of the Heat's superstars, the penetration created by Rose will lead to easy baskets for his teammates. If you remember, all year the formula to beat the Heat revolved around great point guards, whether it was Deron Williams with the Jazz or Rondo. However, Rose is superior to anything the Heat have faced so far. I also think Rose has the better intangibles in this matchup. He has that killer instinct and will to win that is becoming stuff of legend already. Rose has that photographic memory to respond successfully to tough situation. If he plays badly, he makes a note to correct and avenge that bad play the next time on the court. Rose helps the Bulls bounceback from losses better than any other team. If you check through regular season and post season game situations, you will see that the Bulls rarely lose two games in a row. Rose's determination will help the Bulls overcome the Heat in 7.
5. Home Court: Home court can't be underestimated and lends itself to momentum. The Bulls have one of the biggest home court advantages in the league. This is also why the Bulls price of +160 is such good value. Because this is such an even matchup, the home court advantage could potentially be big. If the Heat steal one of the first two, then I would feel a bit less confident. If the Bulls win the first two games, I would expect the Bulls to end up winning the series.
6. Heat's emotional letdown: The Heat's celebration after beating the Celts was telling. It showed they put a great deal of importance into that series and may be ripe for a letdown here. It seemed to me they thought they won something already. Whereas the Bulls were all business after clinching their series against the Hawks. The heat showed their mentality was not set on the big picture. To a man, all the Bulls said after the game was that they still have work to do. After the Heat's win, they talked of relief, getting the monkey off their back and all that nonsense. If the Heat were really that relieved to get to this point, they do not have the right mentality. This goes back to coaching and the Bulls advantage in that area. I think the Heat are set up perfectly for an emotional letdown in this spot.
7. Value: At the end of the day, the Heat's superstar effect is huge. Rose will need a big series and the Bulls will need to play great team basketball with ball movement and defense. I think they will do that. However, I don't think this series is a slam-dunk for either team (as some Heat backers would lead you to believe). This series matchup is really closer to a 50/50 proposition than anything else. Therefore, the odds should be equal. However, the Bulls getting +160 while having home court puts the value solely on the Bulls play. There is no value on the Heat at -190.
8. Hedge: By making a play on the Bulls, you leave yourself with multiple hedge opportunities down the road. This would not be the case with a play on the Heat. The plus odds on the Bulls will give you the freedom to hedge out at small price on later matchups once you know how the series is playing out. I think this bit of flexibility is huge in such a close matchup.

For the foregoing reasons, I am rolling with the Bulls in this series against the Heat at +160. If anyone can articulate for me why they would take the Heat at -190 I would love to hear. I'm not against backing the Heat, but that should done in a game-by-game basis and not as a series play. If you want to make a series play, the value says the play is on the Bulls or no play at all. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

Anything for tomorrow? MLB

Yes, I will have MLB plays. Check the thread about 10-20 minutes before the game time.

[Love The Action]

or for the game 7

I'm on the over tomorrow in the OKC/Mem elimination game 7 for 1.5x.

[suicidekings]

Excellent writeup on the ECF series. I have 3.5u risked on the series as well, with a bit of that on exact results, and 1u on the Bulls -1.5 in Game 1 as these are obviously highly correlated plays. It's going to be a great series.

[flush99]

BOL on your plays today

[Love The Action]

Excellent writeup on the ECF series. I have 3.5u risked on the series as well, with a bit of that on exact results, and 1u on the Bulls -1.5 in Game 1 as these are obviously highly correlated plays. It's going to be a great series.

Glad to see you on this play as well. I am very much looking forward to this series. If the Heat do end up wrestling control of the series, we will have a ton of hedge possibilities because of the series price we have and the low price on the side that will be attributed to each team in this series on a game by game basis. You are never going to catch a spread more than 3 points or a ML more than the -155 range. From an investing view, the Bulls were the only choice because of the flexibility you will have. That's why I just can't get my my head around those that took the Heat at -190. If you like the Heat, just bet the individual games and leave the series play alone. The Bulls were the only series play. I also agree taking the Bulls -1.5 in game 1 is a good play -- if you like them in the series, you have to like them in this first game. The Bulls know they cannot give up the home court advantage and must win every home game. Good luck on all of your plays.

[Love The Action]

I think our over play on today's OKC/Mem game comes down to Durant. If he gets 27+, I believe this over hits. All the value has been sucked out of the under. I am starting to think even more confidently about this play. I would really like to get my hands on the ref assignments with the number at 191 right now.

What does everyone think about today's total play on the Bulls/Mia game. I am leaning over based on the "opening game over" trend of this year's playoffs. While I think the under is generally the right side for this series as a whole, I think the current 180 number has more value for the over because it's the first game of the series.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/15/11

Seattle ML (+105) 1x (Locked)

We went 1-1-1 yesterday after losing on the Rockies/SD under, but winning the AZ/LAD under. We would have cashed the SF/Cubs under, but that one got called in the 8th inning so that one gets wiped off the books. All together in this thread, we are 33 - 24 for a profit of +12.3 units.

Our first play today is on the Mariners to snap their losing streak. The fan in me loves the pitching matchup here with Pineda v. Tomlin, but the investor in me tells me the price on Pineda in this spot is the right play. Crappy weather may affect the game and I like Seattle to sneak away with one here. Bol...

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/15/11

OKC/Mem Over (191.5) 1.5x (Locked)

A risky play here for sure. This line opened up at 193 and immediately started falling. Listen, we all know why this could go under. These teams have played to two straight unders, but you could really call it four because two of the last four games have gone into overtime. Neither team has looked good offensively lately. Plus, this is a game 7 elimination game. Everything screams under.

However, I'm going to buck all those trends and ride the over here for a small 1.5x. Perhaps we add .5x more after the ref assignments are released but before the line moves back up. I'm locking it in now because I don't think we'll get the chance to get 191.5 or less moving forward. I expect some money to come in on the over and the closing line to be 192 or more.

At the end of the day, a 191.5 number for a total in this matchup provides huge value if, and that's a pretty big IF, these two teams can both play decent offensively in the same game. We won't need 50% shooting performances from these two teams to cash the over, however, we will need a collective 43% shooting percentage at the average pace for this matchup. I think we have a big performance from Durant, at home, to bounceback from a horrible day. Our game 6 over call was on pace to cash at halftime, however, OKC only scored 29 points in the second half. If Durant plays to his average, we cash that game.

I think both teams put together a solid offensive game tomorrow and this game should squeak over. I would expect a close game, but OKC coming out on top in the end. Good luck.

Great looking refs for the under in OKC. Callahan, Malloy and Javie get it done from an under bettors point of view. If you have the under, you should feel a little better. I don't think I will be adding to my play on the over but you never know what developments we will see before tip.

The refs are a bit more favorable to the over in the Heat/Bulls game, but I don't forsee all that much help. Crawford isn't bad for the over, but Mauer has a big under lean. I tend to look at Smith as more of a help on the under if anything, but he can call some ticky tack stuff.

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/15/11

Heat/Bulls Over (180) 1x (Locked)

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/15/11

Reds/Cards Under (8) (+100) 1x (Locked)

Sunday afternoon with playoff intensity tends to go under. Carpenter and Wood should pitch well.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/15/11

Baltimore ML (+110) 1x (Locked)

I think we see Baltimore steal a series in TB today. Arieta should pitch better than Sonnestein. Bol...

[ColdBeerHere]

LTA, I've seen your write ups on games in other threads and now I found this one....I enjoy reading them....I'm just curious do you ever put up a running total of your units ? thanks

[Love The Action]

LTA, I've seen your write ups on games in other threads and now I found this one....I enjoy reading them....I'm just curious do you ever put up a running total of your units ? thanks

Every day I usually update my records and unit counts...just gotta check the thread at the start or end of every day.

I'm up over 35 units for the NBA playoffs as documented in various threads, with +7.3 units of that profit earned in this particular thread (which includes all NBA plays from the second round on). In MLB, we are +12.3 units in this thread and over +20 units on the season.

Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/15/11

FLA/Wash Under (7.5) (+100) .5x (Locked)

Late line movement play. I hate Vazquez unders, but Marquis has been pitching well so I'll take a shot that late money is right here.

[Love The Action]

I may play the Bulls on the ML tonight as well.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/15/11

Pit/Mil Under (7.5) 1x (Locked)

Greinke makes his third start after stumbling out of the gate but improving in his second start. I think this is when he should round into shape. Correia is going for the Bucs and I like his game. He's got a low 3's ERA and low 1.16 WHIP, so I expect him and Greinke to boht have quality starts. Both teams favor the under and I like that trend to continue. Bol...

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/15/11

FLA/Wash Under (7.5) (+100) .5x (Locked)

Late line movement play. I hate Vazquez unders, but Marquis has been pitching well so I'll take a shot that late money is right here.

Uh...no. Never again with Vazquez and the under. I took him one before on an under this year and got shelled. That's why I only went half unit here. Now, never again after he gets shelled in the first