LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[hawley]

Thats the other point

Both overs will probably be big public plays, I saw about 66% of people on the under in the last OKC game but I imagine they will be back on the over tomorrow

Not that the public don't win but I wouldn't feel comfortable, especially with 80%+ that I imagine will be on the Miami over

[Love The Action]

Thunder / Grizz totals have got me every game so far except the one that went well under.

At this stage I have little idea about either

I have been on the heat under every game I think but im not so sure about tomorrow

Both the OKC/Mem and Heat/Celts series have been a bit maddening. For me, it's under or nothing in the Heat/Celts game. I like it, but need to check a few things out first. I will probably sit the OKC/Mem game out again.

[Love The Action]

Thats the other point

Both overs will probably be big public plays, I saw about 66% of people on the under in the last OKC game but I imagine they will be back on the over tomorrow

Not that the public don't win but I wouldn't feel comfortable, especially with 80%+ that I imagine will be on the Miami over

I can't believe how many public plays have hit during these playoffs. I agree that the public generally wins 48-50% of the time. But, for some reason, most of my big plays always end up being public fades. I do feel better about my plays being on the opposite end.

Currently both games tomorrow are big public over plays. Those percentages can come down, but I doubt it. I will be monitoring public percentages, line movements, ref assignments, etc., for tomorrow and will post here.

Good luck tomorrow whatever you choose.

[hawley]

I may be wrong but I just cant believe the public will continue to win big through the rest of these playoffs

[Krazymojo]

I see the public bettin the under on the heat/celts game where do u see the opposite???

[hawley]

I see the public bettin the under on the heat/celts game where do u see the opposite???

I have 78% of action on the over?

what do you use?

[Love The Action]

I see the public bettin the under on the heat/celts game where do u see the opposite???

Sports Insights, Sports Spy and Scores/Odds all have between 75% - 85% of all bets on the over right now in both games.

Where do you see otherwise?

[Krazymojo]

well dont really use anything but saw that the line dropped half a point already started at 181.5 now down to 181 so would figure ppl are betting under

[Love The Action]

I may be wrong but I just cant believe the public will continue to win big through the rest of these playoffs

No, I don't think you are wrong. This second round has been odd. There have been abnormally high shooting percentages, including record breaking shooting performances (see Dallas) all throughout this second round. It has not been uncommon for collective percentages above 50%. That is very strange for second rounds of the playoffs. Usually, the percentages hover around 45% or lower. However, even with such good shooting, most of the Heat/Celts games should have stayed under (see OT game) or barely went over. That tells me the unders will start hitting here. And, as always, the public will be on the over...so I like our odds.

[hawley]

well dont really use anything but saw that the line dropped half a point already started at 181.5 now down to 181 so would figure ppl are betting under

Thats the whole purpose of checking these data trackers - you can't really assume which side the public is on

http://pregame.com/EN/main/sports-betting-stats/sportsbook-spy-insights/

I use that site

[Krazymojo]

thx

[Love The Action]

well dont really use anything but saw that the line dropped half a point already started at 181.5 now down to 181 so would figure ppl are betting under

That is why you need to monitor public betting trends. If you see the line drop like that, yet 70% + is on the over, you know big/smart money is on the under. That is the primary way to identify where the smart money is going. You should add this tool to your capping arsenal. It's not the most important factor, but it is one you should be using. BOL...

[Krazymojo]

i am new to the whole capping thing not a pro or have a great br but always willing to learn

[hawley]

i am new to the whole capping thing not a pro or have a great br but always willing to learn

That advice above your post is great advice

Definitely check out public betting %'s but you cant just rely purely on fading the public

[Love The Action]

Off to bed...time to picture tomorrow's games in my mind as I fall asleep. The more I look at this Miami/Celts total, the more I like the under. They only scored total of 188 last game, despite overtime, 57 free throw attempts and a collective ft hit rate above 80%. They also played a pretty slow pace after the first quarter. On the other hand, they shot about a collective 43% from the field and 27% from three point range. That's not really all that great. However, I think we can expect more of that type of low percentage shooting in tomorrow night's game where defense and half court offense will be key. I think you see the Heat score 90 - 95 points tomorrow. The question is if Boston can also as well. I sort of see a 92 - 85 type game.

[forzuto13]

Hell, I see another overtime game myself, for some reason. I know the idea for these close-out games is bet the under but Heat can put some points on the board. I see Celtics playing much better offense this game too. I'd say over or nothing. My two cents...

[dude_bg]

I dont know the Cs that well, is there a possibility if they are down by double digits at halftime to start pushing the tempo and shoot more? This sounds unlikely as they are old, but it is do or die game so don't think it fits any patters. One more thing, If game is close, lets say 5-6 points they will play the foul game and i can see like 10-12 points in the final minute.

[kobstopa]

Off to bed...time to picture tomorrow's games in my mind as I fall asleep. The more I look at this Miami/Celts total, the more I like the under. They only scored total of 188 last game, despite overtime, 57 free throw attempts and a collective ft hit rate above 80%. They also played a pretty slow pace after the first quarter. On the other hand, they shot about a collective 43% from the field and 27% from three point range. That's not really all that great. However, I think we can expect more of that type of low percentage shooting in tomorrow night's game where defense and half court offense will be key. I think you see the Heat score 90 - 95 points tomorrow. The question is if Boston can also as well. I sort of see a 92 - 85 type game.

LT, what you looking at here is data of a game where Boston was at home. In coming Game 5, the key is connected back to Game 1 & 2 where the heats was at home, Boston had played a sound defense & they had healthy Rondo. I sense the heats will force the pace to their advantage & knowing Boston's like slow half court, also will take a few more FG attempt at home than on the road.
And I think you are on the right track that both teams is around early to mid 90's a piece & that make 182 total a very shape line, 188 would be a good under. that's my assessment, good luck either way

[flush99]

Great call and perfect 4Q!! Congrats 10X

[Love The Action]

LT, what you looking at here is data of a game where Boston was at home. In coming Game 5, the key is connected back to Game 1 & 2 where the heats was at home, Boston had played a sound defense & they had healthy Rondo. I sense the heats will force the pace to their advantage & knowing Boston's like slow half court, also will take a few more FG attempt at home than on the road.
And I think you are on the right track that both teams is around early to mid 90's a piece & that make 182 total a very shape line, 188 would be a good under. that's my assessment, good luck either way

Thanks for your insight Kob...much appreciated.

As I mentioned in a post above and in your thread, I do think the Heat will play a faster pace now that they will be back at home. In addition, if they continue to get to the FT line like they have been, that bodes well for the over. However, after thinking about it last night, I think the over/under in this game comes down to Bosh. Wade and Lebron will get their 20+. I think the issue is whether Bosh will get his?

As we know, the Heat have had trouble closing games. I tend to think they have a bit of trouble tonight closing the series and their "closing" jitters continue. I do believe the Heat win, however, I'm not convinced they will hit 100 tonight. Either way, I think the Celts and Garnett have their way with Bosh and they should stop his little 15 foot jumper. If that shot is not falling for Bosh, I do not believe he will start taking it down low as the Heat need. He just hasn't had the fortitude to take it in the paint all series, despite their need for such an inside presence. I don't see that changing tonight. As long as Bosh is limited to the 15 point range, I think we see an 89 -93 point range for the Heat. I don't think the Celts will top 90, regardless of the pace or the Heat's offensive output. Therefore, to me, this over/under comes down to Bosh's ability to hit shots at a high percentage and top the 18-20 point mark. Bosh's points will be the difference between the Heat scoring 90 and their scoring 100. If the Heat are limited to the 90 point range, the under should cash. If they hit 95 or more, I believe the over will cash.

Garnett had a bad game in game 4, both offensively and defensively. I think he comes out strong tonight and should keep Bosh to 15 and under. I believe if Bosh gets 18+, the over should cash. However, if they can keep Bosh under that 18 number, the under has a good shot. If you watched their disjointed offense at the end of all close games this season and playoffs, I think we have a good shot for a low scoring fourth quarter because the Heat don't have offensive rhythm to close out games. The Heat's offense at the end of games becomes one on one battles involving either Wade or Lebron. Those two do not have confidence in anyone else on that team at the end of close games. Because of that, we could very well see a low scoring fourth quarter.

I believe, an interesting play here could be (1) taking the 1q over and (2) taking the game under. If you notice, in most of these 2 round playoff games, they have started quickly and ended slowly. I think we could see the same here with a 50 point first quarter, but a 35-40 point fourth quarter. In such a case, we could cash both.

Good luck on your plays today Kob! I always appreciate your depth of knowledge in your thread and wherever else you share. Stay hot bud...

[Love The Action]

Ref update

I am very encouraged by the ref assignments in the Heat game tonight.

We have Foster, Garretson and Spooner wearing the stripes. All favor the under especially Garretson and Spooner. I will have a 3-5 unit play on the under. Lets see where the line goes. Looks like it may drop soon, so I may lock it in shortly.

[BL]

liking both unders plus heat as a side. BOL today

[Love The Action]

Did you guys notice the Bulls defensive adjustments last night as predicted. Both Brewer and Asik played the entire fourth quarter in place of Boozer and Korver.

This not only proved our prediction true and further backs up our play on the under yesterday, but also evidences why the Bulls depth will give the Heat big problems. The Bulls have the best formula to beat the Heat with depth, defense and a fast/penetrating point guard. Don't assume a Heat victory over the Bulls in a 7 game series.

[migz]

What's your lean on OKC/MEM under?

[Love The Action]

Nba 5/11/11

Heat/Celts under (181) 3x (Locked)


Busy at work...good luck. Possible addition of one unit. Reasoning above. No lean in okc/mem yet....

[Love The Action]

Refs favor the over in okc/mem....

[Love The Action]

Early MLB 5/11/11

Astros ML (+ 100) 1.5x (Locked)

Padres ML (+ 110) 1.5x (Locked)



Bol....

[d2bets]

Did you guys notice the Bulls defensive adjustments last night as predicted. Both Brewer and Asik played the entire fourth quarter in place of Boozer and Korver.

This not only proved our prediction true and further backs up our play on the under yesterday, but also evidences why the Bulls depth will give the Heat big problems. The Bulls have the best formula to beat the Heat with depth, defense and a fast/penetrating point guard. Don't assume a Heat victory over the Bulls in a 7 game series.

Excellent post. The Bulls frontcourt depth could be devastating to Miami. Both Indy and ATL had the size and depth upfront to give Boozer and Noah et al issues. Miami's frontcourt really does not. Noah was injured for their first matchup and just getting back and healthy for their next two games. His energy and action underneath that he brings is going to be tough for Miami to neutralize. I don't see Anthony or Ilgauskas getting it done. Miami has gone small against Boston because they can, Boston doesn't have a true center. Ilgauskas has hardly played. Can Anthony match Noah's energy (and Asik as well). That's a huge ? to me. Boozer as well, has looked better the last couple games. Not a good matchup for Bosh and neither is Taj Gibson. Which then leads to who guard Rose. If they put Lebron on him for extended periods, then who guards Deng? Miami's best bet might be going to a bigger lineup and scratching a true poing guard and letting Wade and Lebron handle the backcourt. So you have Wade, Lebron, James Jones, Bosh and Anthony. I think Miami will need the extra size defensively.

It's going to be an interesting chess match. Wade and James are not easy for any team to stop, but I think the Bulls match up adequately with possibly their best defenders at those positions with Bogans/Brewer and then Deng on James, with Deng a very underrated defender and has done a decent job on him in the past. The concern would be if he got into foul trouble. Korver on James is a no-no. Might even see a little Rasual Butler in such a case, who has barely played.

Again, the matchups here are really interesting. Coaching is going to be big. And I'd trust Thibodeua in the chess match over Spoelstra.

[Love The Action]

Excellent post. The Bulls frontcourt depth could be devastating to Miami. Both Indy and ATL had the size and depth upfront to give Boozer and Noah et al issues. Miami's frontcourt really does not. Noah was injured for their first matchup and just getting back and healthy for their next two games. His energy and action underneath that he brings is going to be tough for Miami to neutralize. I don't see Anthony or Ilgauskas getting it done. Miami has gone small against Boston because they can, Boston doesn't have a true center. Ilgauskas has hardly played. Can Anthony match Noah's energy (and Asik as well). That's a huge ? to me. Boozer as well, has looked better the last couple games. Not a good matchup for Bosh and neither is Taj Gibson. Which then leads to who guard Rose. If they put Lebron on him for extended periods, then who guards Deng? Miami's best bet might be going to a bigger lineup and scratching a true poing guard and letting Wade and Lebron handle the backcourt. So you have Wade, Lebron, James Jones, Bosh and Anthony. I think Miami will need the extra size defensively.

It's going to be an interesting chess match. Wade and James are not easy for any team to stop, but I think the Bulls match up adequately with possibly their best defenders at those positions with Bogans/Brewer and then Deng on James, with Deng a very underrated defender and has done a decent job on him in the past. The concern would be if he got into foul trouble. Korver on James is a no-no. Might even see a little Rasual Butler in such a case, who has barely played.

Again, the matchups here are really
interesting. Coaching is going to be big. And I'd trust Thibodeua in the chess
match over Spoelstra.

Spot on analysis...thank you.

[Love The Action]

Early MLB 5/11/11

Astros ML (+ 100) 1.5x (Locked)

Padres ML (+ 110) 1.5x (Locked)



Bol....

Sea/bal over (7.5) .5x

Cubs ML (-120) .5x



Two more small mlb plays..no need to go bigger since we already started 2-0 today with wins on astros and padres. Bol...

[Love The Action]

Don't worry guys...we will cash this under...think positive!

[Krazymojo]

was getting worried lol

[NFL49ers]

Don't worry guys...we will cash this under...think positive!

[Krazymojo]

bahhhh

[hawley]

Hey LTA

I looked close to tip off but did the late line movement favor the over today? did you see?

I thought the over went from + money to juiced but didn't pay much attention because I didn't play this over