u like anything for the mem/okc game???
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Cash the over guys. Surprised you keep going against the trend. Remember - the trend is your friend!Comment -
Mem ML (1x)
Mem/Okc Under 197 (1x)
MLB
Angels/White Sox Under 8 (1x)
SF/AZ SF-1.5 (1x)Comment -
I am so glad this Miami/Celts series is over. It's been nothing but a huge drag on my profit stream between overtime beats and other BS one or two point losses on the under. I am still up well over 35 units in the playoffs, but it couild be SO much more if I just was able to hit that one overtime loser and perhaps one of the other unders that lost by a few points. Oh well, no need to dwell on it. I have no play in the OKC game, so I will enjoy that and prepare for a play on the Bulls game tomorrow.
As I stated earlier, don't sleep on the Bulls and think Miami will roll. It won't happen.Comment -
From 5/10/11 MLB
2 - 4 = =-1.2x
In tis thread:
25 - 19 = +7.5x
NBA 5/10/11
1 - 0 = + 10x
In this thread
8 - 9 = + 7.3x
NBA 5/11/11
0 - 1 = -3.3x
In this thread:
8 - 10 = +4x
(Playoffs so far as documented in previous threads +34.7x)
Man, if it wasn't for all of those losers on the under in the Heat series, my NBA record would have four less losses and I would up well over 20x in this thread alone (over 50x for the playoffs).
Oh well, glad that Heat series is done with...time to get back on that profit train...
MLB 5/11/11
3 - 1 = +3x
In this thread:
28 - 20 = + 10.5x
So far total, between both NBA and MLB in this thread we are up +14.5x. Not bad, but we expect better, especically from the NBA. We're profitable in both sports in this thread, but we should be up way more in the NBA (again that stupid Heat/Celts series screwed us LOL). The thread is only 11 days old, so we are up more than 1x per day, which is what I try to average. Therefore, we are on schedule despite certain chances to be way ahead of schedule. My MLB plays are really shaping up, so I hope some of you have taken advantage when I have had enough time to post early.
I will have a play in tomorrow's Bulls game...perhaps two. Good luck....Comment -
NBA 5/12/11
Bulls/Hawks under (179) 5x (Locked)
I love this elimination game under. Both teams should be motivated to play strong D in all phases and a somewhat slower pace on offense. Plus, if the Bulls by some miracle do lose in a game that goes over we have a great chase opportunity on the Bulls and under in game 7.
I may add a few units to the under once I see the refs. I may also have a very public play on the Bulls, especially if that line drops to 3 as it looks it may do this morning. Bol...Comment -
best of luck today !!Comment -
Why dont you narrow daily MLB picks to a few games to study thenComment -
I do that now. I have the same process that I follow to investigate each game and matchup on the card. Then I apply further filters to qualify my final plays. That process never changes regardless of total number of available investment opportunities.
The point of my previous post was that smaller cards provide me with extra time because there are not as many games to apply the process. In turn, if my day job affords me the opportunity, I can apply this saved time to even further delve into the qualifying plays to perhaps find some more value to warrant the addition of units to the already qualifying wager.Comment -
Refs for tonight's game -- J. Crawford B. Delaney E. MalloyComment -
Thanks....
I don't expect much help from these assignments as they definitely dont lean under. Regardless, we cashed game 5's under despite the teams shouting relatively well. I expect an even lower scoring affair tonight. Both teams should have a lot of defensive intensity from the outset Bol...Comment -
Gl today. I will be tailingComment -
Deleted...duplicate post.Comment -
Really like the elimination under as well, let's get paid here
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At some point in the next couple days, I will draft a post and/or new thread specifically about why I think the Bulls beat the Heat in a series of seven games.
Lets start thinking about that matchup...Comment -
Good luck with the under play.Comment -
Early MLB 5/12/11
TB/cle over (7.5) .5x (locked)
Bol.....Comment -
LTA, just out of curiosity are you bias towards unders? Ive been in and out of your thread time to time and i see that you love going for unders. Not bashing on your picks, but tonights game i feel has a chance of going over the total. The total has gone over twice in the hawks arena and i see that as a trend that might be of concern. Gl tonight thouComment -
Not at all. Not sure if you remember my previous threads during the first round when I cashed multiple overs on san antonio/memphis or even in this thread when I cashed the first game over in okc/mem.
If you read my opening series summary on this bulls/hawks, you would see that I evaluated this series to be similar to the magic/hawks series with a gravy train on the under. I have been very profitable so far with this series betting the under, especially in the two bulls revenge games where we cashed 25 units total.
I just feel the probabilities favor the under here. In addition, other factors play in as well such as the history of unders hitting more often than not in the playoffs and with defensive minded teams. Just check the results of the first round for evidence of this trend.
The problem is that the books know that many sharps will generally bet the under during the playoffs and the public will be on the over. Therefore, the books consistently protect against the under as they have more exposure that side than the public over side and the lines will be very sharp. Consequently, under bettors may lose by just a few points.
Another reason why I have bet the under in this series and the heat/celts series is the high odds that an under will hit, thereby providing profitable chase opportunities. As you know, in a series, where teams go over in one game because of an abnormally great shooting performance or some other abnormal reason, we generally get the opposite. That gives us a good probability of profit on the under after an over hits. Therefore, I just think most factors give us the edge on the under in these recent series.
The public has cashed more overs these last couple weeks than I can remember. This has not followed nba historical trends. I think we see a return to the unders for these upcoming games like we saw in the first round.
I will take an over where I see value, however, all of my capping factors have pointed under and I have to stick with what has been profitable in the past. Bol....Comment -
good luck my friendComment -
I really like Cain in that matchup but BOLComment -
As is my strategy in ATL/CHI games (esp in ATL) - WAIT
If ATL show up the game goes over, if they don't usually under (+/- few points). Both ATL 1Q score at home has been high.
May grab a nice live line of under 188 or so again - I feel much more confident in that. Also I am sick of hitting the over by 1pt lol.Comment -
Good luck tonight everyone.
Ill be offline doing some family stuff.
The late line movement is wrong! Lets cash this under!Comment -
And for any american bettors...will pinny give me action and if so, what is the best way to fund my account. ThanksComment -
Looking good...55 pt cushion heading into the 4th quarter...Comment -
Nice call LTA, what do you think of tomorrow's game?Comment
Love it...it's like you read my mind. I like the Bulls too...
