LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

Bulls -1.5 and Over 180. Take it to the bank

Here's to a profitable series.

You know it SK...we are going to make a lot of money on this series. I am really excited about the under in game 2. Neither team will shoot as well, it should be a slower pace, 90% of the public will be on the over and we should get some value at 183 or a little more. That deserves a big play.

Plus, we started our series bets out with a solid win. Everything is going perfect with this series so far...(knock on wood LOL).

[vinh diesel]

I hit both the over 180 and under 89.5 2h lol, soooo sick, perfect hit!!

[Love The Action]

got it. & dont you ever doubt on series opener to go over, ever !!!!.

You know how I do with the reverse jinx...it was getting a little scary right at the end of the third and beginning few minutes of the 4th...all's well that ends well. Great beginning to this series.

[kobstopa]

NBA 5/15/11
Now it's time to start thinking OKC/Dallas. I lean over for game 1.

Over 192.5 Points is a locked, 97 103 Dallas, gl

[Love The Action]

Over 192.5 Points is a locked, gl

[vinh diesel]

I agree as well. Usually love the under, but game 1 are perfect for overs. going to see the line move possibly in our favor for extra value on the over.

[Love The Action]

When you guys see the Bulls/Heat total for game 2, please let me know and post here. I expect early sharp money to be on the under with us, and I don't want to lose any
value. Thanks.

[Love The Action]

I just heard that Rose stood up at halftime and apologized to the entire team for turning the ball over in the 1h.

Man, that just just provides even more support for my comments about Rose in our series writeup.

[suicidekings]

It's at 181.5 at Pinnacle. Released with the juice slanted -109/-101 towards the Over. It has since moved to -106/-104.

[flush99]

Best of luck today on your plays

[Love The Action]

It's at 181.5 at Pinnacle. Released with the juice slanted -109/-101 towards the Over. It has since moved to -106/-104.

Thanks...none of my locals have a line yet. I was hoping too get 183 based on tge game one opening at 182.5 and hitting the over. It didn't exactly sail over, so I guess I shouldn't be surprised. Hopefully, public money can push it up a bit but I doubt it. If there's anything good to take out of that lower number is that the books appear to be leaning under as well.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/15/11

1 - 5 = -3.2x

In this thread:

34 - 29 = +9.1x

A tough day for sure on the bases. A lot of the pitching matchups I expected to result in low scoring games, went the complete opposite. It happens. This has been one of the few unprofitable days in baseball in this thread, and I think the first one this week. However, these types of days just can't be avoided where MLB's season is so long. We have a big Monday card with no early games, so I suspect we have a big day today. I'm looking to get back our three units. However, we're still up over 9 units in this thread with MLB plays and we had a 3 - 0 day in the NBA, so I can't complain too much.

Onto today's plays....good luck.

[Love The Action]

I think this play just comes down to value. Let's face it, this series is a 50/50 proposition because both teams could win. Consequently, there is no value in taking the Heat at -190. However, there is value in the Bulls at +160 because of the home court advantage. Here are the other reasons I like the Bulls:

1. Depth: While the Heat have two of the top three players on these two teams, the Bulls go ten deep which will allow for different matchups, spot plays and defensive adjustments that Thibodeau can use to his advantage. For example, when it was clear earlier on in the Atlanta series that Korver and Boozer were not able to match with some of the Hawks athleticism, he went with Asik and Brewer for the entire fourth quarter as a responsive adjustment that shut the Hawks down. The Heat don't have that flexibility. With Boozer healthy as evidenced by his recent performances, and Noah, Deng, Korver, Bogans, Gibson, Brewer, Asik and Watson, I think the Bulls have the flexibility to respond to in-game situations. James, Wade, Bosh, Chalmers, Anthony, an old Z, Dampier, Miller and Bibby, just can't compare to the established rotation of the Bulls. What do the Heat do if Lebron and Wade both get in foul trouble early? I don't think they have a plan for such a situaiton and the Bulls will be aggressive in their offensive attack. Now, I'm not saying this isn't a close matchup. Lebron and Wade will most certainly get theirs. But for the full 48 minutes, I think the Bulls have the better rotation possibilities. This type of flexibility lends itself to the close games that we most certainly will see and the Bulls will take full advantage.
2. Defense: I give the edge just slightly to the Bulls on defense. These are two solid defensive teams. They both force turnovers in order to score in transition. On one hand, the Bulls have been exposed in these last two rounds by giving up too many unforced turnovers. If they continue this trend, they may not be able to survive. However, I think they shore up any sloppiness. Because of the athleticism, quickness, toughness and size down low, the Bulls present matchup problems for the Heat. We all expect the Bulls to cut off the Heat's access/points in the paint and force outside shots like the Celts did. However, with Deng's proven ability to defend Lebron with help and the Bulls perimeter defensive schemes, I think the Bulls will be more successful with this strategy. Miami will attempt to shut down Rose and assume no one else will hit their shots. That is what the Hawks did with some success. However, I think the Hawks posed more problems for the Bulls bench and role players than the Heat's bench. The Bulls bench will consistently outscore the Heat bench and will clamp down on the Heat's reserves when on defense. All things considered, I think the Bulls have a slight edge on defense. They will take the easy shots away from Lebron and Wade, force them to take low percentage shots and clamp down on everyone else. Thibs will have multiple schemes and this again gives us another reason to lean to the Bulls when considering overall defense.
3. Coaching: I don't think I need to go too in-depth with analysis here, do I? Thibs runs his ship with discipline and consistency. Spo, well, he tries. At the end of the day, Spo is more of a caretaker than a coach. He does not compare to the coach of the year in a lot of respects. I'm not saying Spo is horrible, but Thibs clearly has the edge in x's and o's, game-planning, in-game adjustments and game-to-game adjustments. I give the edge to the Bulls with coaching.
4. Rose: Rose presents problems for anyone, but especially for the Heat. They don't have one guy that can guard Rose. Everyone says, Chalmers and Lebron, but Rose's quickness will eat them up. I think the Bulls have a better chance of stopping Lebron than the Heat do to Rose. The problem is that the Heat can turn to Wade. This is why the Bulls depth and defense will be important to at least chip away at the superstars. Nevertheless, regardless of the Heat's superstars, the penetration created by Rose will lead to easy baskets for his teammates. If you remember, all year the formula to beat the Heat revolved around great point guards, whether it was Deron Williams with the Jazz or Rondo. However, Rose is superior to anything the Heat have faced so far. I also think Rose has the better intangibles in this matchup. He has that killer instinct and will to win that is becoming stuff of legend already. Rose has that photographic memory to respond successfully to tough situation. If he plays badly, he makes a note to correct and avenge that bad play the next time on the court. Rose helps the Bulls bounceback from losses better than any other team. If you check through regular season and post season game situations, you will see that the Bulls rarely lose two games in a row. Rose's determination will help the Bulls overcome the Heat in 7.
5. Home Court: Home court can't be underestimated and lends itself to momentum. The Bulls have one of the biggest home court advantages in the league. This is also why the Bulls price of +160 is such good value. Because this is such an even matchup, the home court advantage could potentially be big. If the Heat steal one of the first two, then I would feel a bit less confident. If the Bulls win the first two games, I would expect the Bulls to end up winning the series.
6. Heat's emotional letdown: The Heat's celebration after beating the Celts was telling. It showed they put a great deal of importance into that series and may be ripe for a letdown here. It seemed to me they thought they won something already. Whereas the Bulls were all business after clinching their series against the Hawks. The heat showed their mentality was not set on the big picture. To a man, all the Bulls said after the game was that they still have work to do. After the Heat's win, they talked of relief, getting the monkey off their back and all that nonsense. If the Heat were really that relieved to get to this point, they do not have the right mentality. This goes back to coaching and the Bulls advantage in that area. I think the Heat are set up perfectly for an emotional letdown in this spot.
7. Value: At the end of the day, the Heat's superstar effect is huge. Rose will need a big series and the Bulls will need to play great team basketball with ball movement and defense. I think they will do that. However, I don't think this series is a slam-dunk for either team (as some Heat backers would lead you to believe). This series matchup is really closer to a 50/50 proposition than anything else. Therefore, the odds should be equal. However, the Bulls getting +160 while having home court puts the value solely on the Bulls play. There is no value on the Heat at -190.
8. Hedge: By making a play on the Bulls, you leave yourself with multiple hedge opportunities down the road. This would not be the case with a play on the Heat. The plus odds on the Bulls will give you the freedom to hedge out at small price on later matchups once you know how the series is playing out. I think this bit of flexibility is huge in such a close matchup.

For the foregoing reasons, I am rolling with the Bulls in this series against the Heat at +160. If anyone can articulate for me why they would take the Heat at -190 I would love to hear. I'm not against backing the Heat, but that should done in a game-by-game basis and not as a series play. If you want to make a series play, the value says the play is on the Bulls or no play at all. Good luck.

Game 1 Recap:

We're definitely not getting overconfident for this series play. However, much of what we predicted in our writeup has proved true.

I just went through the boxscore for the first time since last night. It was clear the Bulls won with the exact formula we predicted.

The Bulls' depth killed Miami in game one. If you look at the Boxscore, you will see that the Bosh had 30, Wade 18, Lebron 15 and the rest of the team had 19. The Bulls outrebounded the Heat 19 - 6 on the offensive glass and 45 - 33 overall. Plus, the Bulls had 20+ more second chance points than the Heat. All of that can be directly attributed to the Bulls depth in the paint and elsewhere just as we predicted. It was clear, Gibson and Asik will play huge rolls this series. Overall, the Bulls "bench mob" as they are called, will prove the x factor in this series. If Wade, Lebron or Bosh get into foul trouble, Miami just doesn't have the horses. Depth was proven to be a key factor in game one and will continue to be one throughout this series.

The Bulls' defense shut down Miami's game. Lebron went 5 -15 and Wade 7 -17. This can be directly attributed to Deng and the Bulls superior help defense just like we predicted. The Bulls fill the lane and help better than any other team. After the game, even Barkely acknowledged that the Bulls defensive prowess is special and can really make the difference in this series. Listen, Wade and Lebron will have some big games. The Bulls won't be able to stop them every time out. However, it's pretty clear that the Heat will be contested every time they get the ball and the Bulls's athleticism and toughness will give Miami big problems. The Bulls are a faster, tougher, bigger and stronger version of the always-tough Celtics defense. Miami just got punched in the mouth and let's see how they respond. My guess is that the Bulls take game 2 in a game that stays below 180.

The coaching proved superior by Thibs just as we predicted. Miami's rotations are limited and there's not much Spo can do. However, if you watch that team in huddles during timeouts, you can see a difference between their game-planning and the Bulls' huddles under Thibs. I think there is an issue with respect. The Bulls respect and fully believe in Thibs. I'm not sure the Heat feel the same.

Finally, just as we predicted, the Heat will have trouble guarding Rose. I think we can all see that they won't have an answer for him during this series. As long as he cuts down on the turnovers, for which he apologized to his teammates about, and his teammates continue to hit the open shots he creates for them, Rose will continue to dominate this series and prove himself to be the biggest difference-maker on the floor. He is the better competitor between he and Lebron and will continue to prove that.

We're up 1 - 0 for the series so far as the Bulls take care of game one. This game is over now and it's time to solely concentrate on game 2. Don't get too high and don't get too low. We always try to stay even keel and definitely don't get overconfident. We need a big win in game 2 to take control of this series. I think we see an intense, defensive-minded battle in game 2. I'm really contemplating a big play on the under. If we can get 183 or so, I would make it a 10x play. If we are stuck in the 181 range, we will probably make it a 5x play. It's looking lower as Pinny opened at 181.5. In a weird way, that actually bodes well for us as they open lower than the 182.5 that game one opened at. That tells me the books lean under for game 2, which backs up our play.

For game 1 of Dal/OKC, I'm thinking over. I still have some things to review. Good luck....

[freshguy222]

hey LTA!
my book bwin has the total at 182.5, i usually bet there and they nearly always have 0.5points more on the total than for example pinny and they are very slow (i know you often try to lock in your play early to not to lose value)

[Love The Action]

Interesting comments by wade and rose after the game which highlight the difference between the two.

Instead of accepting responsibility for his poor performance, wade simply placed the blame on the heats bench saying they need to play better. On the other hand, rose blamed himself in comments after the game for the turnovers and concentrated on things he would need to do better.

Bottom line is that rose would never throw his teammates under the bus like wade and is the better leader and competitor.

Pretty weak move by wade....

[nmodi]

LTA any MLB play 2night?

[Love The Action]

hey LTA!
my book bwin has the total at 182.5, i usually bet there and they nearly always have 0.5points more on the total than for example pinny and they are very slow (i know you often try to lock in your play early to not to lose value)

That's a great number based on what I have seen...I would take that.

[Love The Action]

LTA any MLB play 2night?

Yep..I usually post mlb about ten or twenty minutes before first pitch. Bol...

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/17/11

OKC/Dallas Over (193) 2x (Locked)

NBA 5/18/11

Heat/Bulls Under (182) 5x (Locked)



I should have some writeups for these plays, especially for the bulls game. I got stuck with a crappy number on the over, but was pleased to get 182 for the under considering most books have 181.5.

As always, we want to review the ref assignments before we contemplate adding units. Good luck.

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/16/11


Astros ML (+ 200) 1x (Locked)



Classic letdown spot for braves after beating the phillies to take that series. Brett Myers should pitch well. Bol...

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/16/11


Astros ML (+ 200) 1x (Locked)



Classic letdown spot for braves after beating the phillies to take that series. Brett Myers should pitch well. Bol...

White Sox ML (-130) 1x (Locked)
Royals ML (+ 100) 1x (Locked)
Phillies/cards under (7) (+ 105) 1x (Locked)

[jacer333]

Rolling with with White Sox tonight too.

Hoping to get some coin back playing this Chi/Mia under that I lost in game 1.

[NBA_Brosuf]

NBA 5/18/11

Heat/Bulls Under (182) 5x (Locked)

Don't mind me if I'm tailing you with this play here because I'm seeing something again. LOL

Looking forward for your write up as I am making the attempt to post my bet and a small write up.

[Love The Action]

White Sox ML (-130) 1x (Locked)
Royals ML (+ 100) 1x (Locked)
Phillies/cards under (7) (+ 105) 1x (Locked)

Oakland ML (-140) 2x (Locked

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/16/11
Phillies/cards under (7) (+ 105) 1x (Locked)

Astros ML (+ 200) 1x (Locked)

Classic letdown spot for braves after beating the phillies to take that series. Brett Myers should pitch well. Bol...

Phillies/Cards under hits easily. Remember, whenever Westbook pitches against another topline pitcher after getting shelled in the previous game, that game against the good pitcher will go under. That's a great little trend you should pay attention to.

Oh man, so close. The Stros lose 3-2 by giving up the winning run in the eight inning. Just as I predicted, Myers pitched great. The under was a correlated play here that I wanted, but I stuck with the big reward ML instead. I should have played the under as well...

MLB 5/16/11
1 - 1 = 0x (3 more plays pending)

[Love The Action]

A lot of my MLB total leans hit today...so frustrating when leans that you don't play hit...especially when the plays you do make don't hit.

Anyone know if they are going to get this Oakland A's game started? It's currently on rain delay....

Getting excited about the NBA total plays I locked in earlier. I do believe I will be adding to both.

[nmodi]

LTA My only concern for Dal?OKC game is ut's GM1 of d western conf final...asking them to score 95 95 isnt it 2 much?

[flush99]

Good luck for today plays.

[Rolo1984]

curious to see your writeups. Since Bl is on the other side

bleh means it is a nobet for me. Not going on either side when my two favorite cappers are torn

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/16/11

2-3 = -.1x

36 - 32 = +9x

We could have had a huge day if the Astros pulled out that game, but alas, they lost 3-2. Such is life when you enjoy betting big MLB dogs. A miniscule .1x loss on the day means nothing. It's time to get back on the MLB profit train for today. Good luck.

[MrXYZ]

Hey LTA, I'm on the OKC/DAL over as well, for 1 unit. Did my analysis and it's definitely the play, even though it's a big public favourite. Good luck today.

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/17/11

OKC/Dallas Over (193) 2x (Locked)

Adding 2x for total of 4x on OKC/Dal Over (193) (Locked)

Another ugly public over play. Nevertheless, as long as it's an ugly public over play that cashes, I am happy. It's no secret I'm not a fan of jumping in bed with the public, especially when they are at 80% on the over and I didn't get the opening number of 192. However, I have this capped at 195 and I think we see this one squeak over. I think the "opening game" over trend is in full effect today and the over should cash.

One downside is that the Mavs have been off 8 days since their demolition of the Lakers. If you remember, the Lakers were swept because of Dallas' record shooting performance from behind the arc (attributable primarily to Stojakovic and Terry). However, we don't need a 122 points like that night, all we need is about 100. I think the Mavs can get there and so can OKC. I expect the Mavs to hit 100-103 on their home court and OKC to be in the mid 90's. This would get us to the 194 we need.

So far in these playoffs, these two teams have followed the opening game over trend and it's currently hitting at over 80% for the playoffs as a whole. Those are numbers I cannot ignore. However, it's numbers put up by the Mavs at home that really cinch this play for me. Bottom line is that the Mavs have averaged over 100 at home during the playoffs and I think that is what we see tonight despite their long layoff. Everyone cites the layoff as the reason why they will struggle. However, I don't buy into that. All of the Mavs players had a chance to rest up, get healthy and will be firing from the start. For a veteran team, that rest will only help. The Mavs will have fresh legs, which will lead to an uptempo and aggressive pace.

If you look at the regular season games between these two teams for reference (and I don't much stock into regular season games but they are a good starting point), you will see that each game they played hit over 193. Most of those games sailed over 193. I understand both teams will want to establish defense, however, as we have seen, these opening games have not been profitable for the under and I expect the pace to be quick tonight. The opening game is usually the highest scoring game of the series and I expect the same tonight. Defense will come later, tonight these teams will run.

We will see well over 160 fg attempts, with over 35 of those three point attempts. Both of these teams, and especially the Mavs, will be aggressive driving to the hole and hopefully we get some foul calls from the refs. If both teams can shoot around 45% with about 33% from three point range and 75% on 54 ft attempts, we should cash this over. Based on both season matchups and these teams' recent playoff performances, those numbers are more than attainable.

The trends are pretty split, with the over favoring Dallas and the under favoring OKC.

I generally think we will make some good money on the under in this series in a few select spots. However, we need to be flexible and make adjustments when the books adjust on us. In the first round, we saw a ton of unders. The books adjusted and shaved just a hair off the totals for round 2. What ensued was a bevy of public overs, especially in that Heat/Celts series. Remember, we need to be able to adjust and spot the value. In this case, the value is on the over because this line should be in the mid 190's and not the low 190's. I will bet with the value every time, because that will make you profitable over the long haul.

Finally, I think this is a case where you have sharp and square money on the same side. This line opened up at 192 and almost immediately shot up to 192.5 and then 193. Public money wasn't betting this game at the open...that was the so-called sharps.

I'm not afraid to take the value when it's presented to me and I will take it today for 4x. I am very confident inn this play. I added units now because I have a busy workday and won't have time to monitor lines. I do want to see the ref assignments, and that may result in one more unit.

I may be adding to my 5x under play on the Bulls as well pretty soon before that one drops. Good luck tonight. As always, please feel free to let me know why you like the under.

[Love The Action]

Ref update:

I am very pleased with the ref assignments for tonights game. Crawford, Kennedy and Zarba all favor the over. Zarba especially calls a lot of ticky tack stuff. I hate when I see his name in games where I play the under.

In addition, the line has gone up another half point to 193.5. Regardless of the public percentages, if there was big money on the under tonight, we would not have seen the line jump as much as it has.

Based on the ref assignments, line movement, the opening game over trend, the two teams' shooting ability, the expected fast pace and dallas' home game over trend, I am roiling with the over for 4x. Good luck!

[FishFace5]

I'm following you tonight big man.
Total is a little higher than I would like and I got a shitty number but hopefully I'll be ok.
Keep doing what you do.

[rochestertitans]

good luck