LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[FishFace5]

Good call tonight. Never in doubt.

[vinh diesel]

congrats LTA, i could won more if I didn't hedge, oh well I'll take a 1 unit win :P

thanks for the picks!

[Love The Action]

Good call tonight. Never in doubt.

[Love The Action]

congrats LTA, i could won more if I didn't hedge, oh well I'll take a 1 unit win :P

thanks for the picks!

[nmodi]

Hi LTA thanks for DAL over pick...but i might lean on over for miami game game as Miami 3 and chicago bench+Rose+Carlos back in form I doubt if they dont score 90 90....BOL for ur under on Miami/Chi GM2

[rochestertitans]

nice

[GTS925]

Congrats again LTA!

[nickos86]

Well done. Ride the trend 'til the wheels fall off.
Good call on those refs too. Joey was hyperventilating on his whistle.

[Rolo1984]

I was torn between LTA and BL but decided to go with LTA and give joey a call. telling him to blow that whistle like he never had before and for once not give me a sweat

great work LTA

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/17/11 Recap

2 - 2 = +.4x

In this thread:

36 - 31 = + 9.5x

A small profitable day. It seems some bad defensive play in the Cubs game cost us a really big profitable day. We cashed our big 2 unit play on the Diamondbacks ML and the smaller half unit play on the Cardinals ML. The Indians are just rolling right now and I should not have played the Royals last night. Onto today's card.

We have a big play on the under in tonight's Bulls/Heat game and should have some MLB plays as well. Good luck tonight.

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/18/11

Heat/Bulls Under (182) 5x (Locked)

I will most likely add 5x after reviewing the ref assignments later this morning.

When I think of this game 2, I think of the end of Rocky III, when Rocky and Apollo end up in the ring to commence the rematch requested by Apollo in return for his training of Rocky. Ding, Ding...and the first punch is thrown...

The Bulls just hit the Heat in their mouth and now we will see how the Heat respond. If they respond like I think they will, we should see a great series. Although I expect the Bulls to win a close one tonight (and the series), I think we see a much better effort, especially on the defensive end, from the Heat.

This game should be played, "first to 90 wins." While I expect a similar score out of the Heat, I do not think the Bulls will score quite as much as they did in the first game. I expect a final score of 89-86 with a thrilling Bulls win.

We need to remember the Bulls' formula for success was not based on great shooting performances or scoring a great deal of points. The Bulls' formula for success is to win with defense and that is what they pride themselves on. Furthermore, the pace of that first game will not be sustained. I expect a slower game tonight with both teams shooting under 45%. Remember, that first punch was thrown and will set the tone for this whole series. Both teams know they are now in for a fight.

There is no doubt the Heat still have matchup problems to contend with. The Bulls will own the Heat all series when it comes to the paint and the bench. However, I don't expect Lebron and Wade to just give up. It seems to me from some of the stories I have read, the Heat now realize this series will be won or lost on the defensive end. It is because of this realization, that I think we see more effort from the Heat. If you remember, their body language was horrible from about half way through the third quarter till the end of the game on Sunday. I think we see a renewed effort and Heat players that fill the lane quicker and are better at helping on Rose. A big part of NBA defense is "want-to" and I expect a much better performance and effort from the Heat tonight which is shown primarily on the defensive end. As long as certain Heat players stay out of foul trouble, expect a shorter rotation and whole lot of the "big-3." That provides for a more athletic lineup and a better chance for steals, disruptions, blocks, etc. Expect the Heat to play with a greater intensity on defense tonight and the Bulls to shoot just a hair worse. Those two factors will combine for a lower scoring game.

Let's also not forget that the Hawks and Pacers exposed the Bulls a bit when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. It's no secret that the Bulls success is significantly dependent upon Derrick Rose. However, I generally assume a great performance from him. The difference between a Bulls win and a Bulls loss lies with Deng, Boozer, Noah, Korver, Bogans, Brewer, Asik, Watson, etc. The Bulls played a great "team" game in game one with everyone providing a contribution. Although I expect the same sort of great team effort from the Bulls tonight, I just don't think we will see the same offensive output. I envision a game where every Bulls player scores about one basket less than they did in game one. This should result primarily from a slower pace and fewer attempts.

We only need 4 points less than the 185 points that were scored in game one. That is not a lot in a game where I expect a much better defensive effort from the Heat with multiple adjustments made in how they plan to defend the Bulls' attack. I believe we will see under 180 points tonight. I believe the early pace we saw in game one, will not continue tonight. For the most part, the Bulls will try to slow the game down and stick to the half court game in an attempt to avoid turnovers and keep the Heat from scoring in the transition. The ability to avoid both turnovers and the Heat's transition attack is vitally important to the Bulls tonight. Consequently, I think we see a slower pace tonight, especially in the second half and fourth quarter.

On defense the Bulls should continue to do what they did in game one...namely, lock down on Wade and Bosh and let Bosh get garbage baskets. Although I do expect a better game from both Lebron and Wade, I think we see both limited to under 27. Bosh should return to earth with about 18-20. The question is if you believe the Heat's role/reserve players can contribute an additional 20-30 points tonight against the Bulls. I don't think this will happen. I believe the Bulls will dominate the paint once again and continue to dominate the one-on-one matchups with their Heat counterparts. At the same time, however, I expect those same Heat players to play much better on the defensive end, and provide more of a challenge to the offense output of the Bulls' "bench mob." This should lead to 4 less points that we will need to cash the under tonight.

The line movement has been interesting. The line opened at 181.5, then dropped to 180.5 and then rose back to 181.5 where it sits now. I was lucky to get 182 through one of my locals and will have to buy the hook if I want to get that number again. However, that early drop to 180.5 is telling and shows me that that sharps pounded the under upon opening, after which the action evened out and started to come in a bit more on the over. I expect the total to go up another half point or thereabouts and then drop before tip. Even more interesting was the decision not to open up at the 182.5 we saw in the opening game, despite that game going over. That opening number of 181.5 tells me even the books expect a lower scoring game as they knew they needed to protect against early money on the under (which they saw anyway).

This line is very sharp. Whether we win or lose, I expect a final score within 5 points of the 182 number. I have this game capped around 176 to 177, therefore, I think we have good value in the under. The Bulls have a huge tendency to hit the under when facing a playoff caliber team at home and I think that trend continues tonight. The Heat were primed for a huge a letdown after they beat the Celtics and released, what I thought, was a ridiculous display of emotion. I think they now realize the Bulls are a great team and will pose a difficult challenge. Consequently, I expect the Heat's renewed effort to show itself on the defensive end and we see the under hit tonight.

Good luck on all your plays tonight gentlemen. As always, I will post updates on the line and ref assignments. As you saw in the Dallas game, the ref assignments are really important when it comes to unit size. I try not to make big plays if the refs show an opposite lean, so let's hope for a Rodney Mott type for tonight. I look forward to hearing your thoughts and questions. Let's cash this under!

[flush99]

record +15.8!! Congrats!!

[Love The Action]

Ref assignments:

Nothing to get too excited about with Mccutchen, Phillips and Stafford. None of the three have a strong lean either way. I am not aware of any history between these teams and these refs. On the bright side, I don't see any red flags such as Zorba reffing yesterdays game. Zorba is always a name I fear when on the under.

I think we are ok in assuming 50 ft attempts or less, which is what we need to cash this under.

[Love The Action]

I think we will see the line go up this morning with public money coming on on the over. Looks like we should see 182 soon. I also expect the total to drop at some time later in the day as some sharps gobble up the value on the under.

[BL]

great call on the over yesterday!

[Love The Action]

great call on the over yesterday!

Thanks BL. Good luck tonight.

[kobstopa]

Ref assignments:

Nothing to get too excited about with Mccutchen, Phillips and Stafford. None of the three have a strong lean either way. I am not aware of any history between these teams and these refs. On the bright side, I don't see any red flags such as Zorba reffing yesterdays game. Zorba is always a name I fear when on the under.

I think we are ok in assuming 50 ft attempts or less, which is what we need to cash this under.

not so fast, we got 2/3 favorable under

ref Total 184.5 or less games
Games Officiated 74
Derrick Stafford 2-4
Jason Phillips 4-3
Monty McCutchen 7-3

also we got bet money ratio at O/U = 7-6/3-4, looks like public is riding on over. All and all the wind is pointing in da right direction.

[M.W.]

nice write-up -- I'm sold

[Love The Action]

not so fast, we got 2/3 favorable under

ref Total 184.5 or less games
Games Officiated 74
Derrick Stafford 2-4
Jason Phillips 4-3
Monty McCutchen 7-3

also we got bet money ratio at O/U = 7-6/3-4, looks like public is riding on over. All and all the wind is pointing in da right direction.

Thanks for the update.

[Love The Action]

Wow..huge swing in the okc/dallas total as it opens at 198 and immediately goes up to 199.5. Interesting...

[ParlayKing]

Although the over is being pounded, Im still leaning towards it. Okc had no answer for dirk and they still won't, if they try to double team him like they did in game 1, he'll pass the ball and create good looks for the perimeter shooters. Dallas has been limiting their opponents to low 90's even in their losses, but okc scored 112, which meant they weren't completely able to shut them down defensively. I smell another over in this one, however it might just barely hit

[Love The Action]

Although the over is being pounded, Im still leaning towards it. Okc had no answer for dirk and they still won't, if they try to double team him like they did in game 1, he'll pass the ball and create good looks for the perimeter shooters. Dallas has been limiting their opponents to low 90's even in their losses, but okc scored 112, which meant they weren't completely able to shut them down defensively. I smell another over in this one, however it might just barely hit

I will wait till tomorrow to address this one. Good luck tonight pk.

[ParlayKing]

I'm on the under as well for the bulls game let's cash tonight LTA

[BallDontLie]

If I had won in bases today, instead of not exactly looking that great at the moment, I would probably hedge 2 units on the 2h under. However, I don't want to lose any profit on this play if it goes over 2h.

nice call on the over last night LTA. Im glad you talked me out of trying to middle on the 2H that woulda sucked. LEts keep this going and cash this under tonight

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/18/11

Heat/Bulls Under (182) 5x (Locked)

I will most likely add 5x after reviewing the ref assignments later this morning.

When I think of this game 2, I think of the end of Rocky III, when Rocky and Apollo end up in the ring to commence the rematch requested by Apollo in return for his training of Rocky. Ding, Ding...and the first punch is thrown...

The Bulls just hit the Heat in their mouth and now we will see how the Heat respond. If they respond like I think they will, we should see a great series. Although I expect the Bulls to win a close one tonight (and the series), I think we see a much better effort, especially on the defensive end, from the Heat.

This game should be played, "first to 90 wins." While I expect a similar score out of the Heat, I do not think the Bulls will score quite as much as they did in the first game. I expect a final score of 89-86 with a thrilling Bulls win.

We need to remember the Bulls' formula for success was not based on great shooting performances or scoring a great deal of points. The Bulls' formula for success is to win with defense and that is what they pride themselves on. Furthermore, the pace of that first game will not be sustained. I expect a slower game tonight with both teams shooting under 45%. Remember, that first punch was thrown and will set the tone for this whole series. Both teams know they are now in for a fight.

There is no doubt the Heat still have matchup problems to contend with. The Bulls will own the Heat all series when it comes to the paint and the bench. However, I don't expect Lebron and Wade to just give up. It seems to me from some of the stories I have read, the Heat now realize this series will be won or lost on the defensive end. It is because of this realization, that I think we see more effort from the Heat. If you remember, their body language was horrible from about half way through the third quarter till the end of the game on Sunday. I think we see a renewed effort and Heat players that fill the lane quicker and are better at helping on Rose. A big part of NBA defense is "want-to" and I expect a much better performance and effort from the Heat tonight which is shown primarily on the defensive end. As long as certain Heat players stay out of foul trouble, expect a shorter rotation and whole lot of the "big-3." That provides for a more athletic lineup and a better chance for steals, disruptions, blocks, etc. Expect the Heat to play with a greater intensity on defense tonight and the Bulls to shoot just a hair worse. Those two factors will combine for a lower scoring game.

Let's also not forget that the Hawks and Pacers exposed the Bulls a bit when it comes to the offensive side of the ball. It's no secret that the Bulls success is significantly dependent upon Derrick Rose. However, I generally assume a great performance from him. The difference between a Bulls win and a Bulls loss lies with Deng, Boozer, Noah, Korver, Bogans, Brewer, Asik, Watson, etc. The Bulls played a great "team" game in game one with everyone providing a contribution. Although I expect the same sort of great team effort from the Bulls tonight, I just don't think we will see the same offensive output. I envision a game where every Bulls player scores about one basket less than they did in game one. This should result primarily from a slower pace and fewer attempts.

We only need 4 points less than the 185 points that were scored in game one. That is not a lot in a game where I expect a much better defensive effort from the Heat with multiple adjustments made in how they plan to defend the Bulls' attack. I believe we will see under 180 points tonight. I believe the early pace we saw in game one, will not continue tonight. For the most part, the Bulls will try to slow the game down and stick to the half court game in an attempt to avoid turnovers and keep the Heat from scoring in the transition. The ability to avoid both turnovers and the Heat's transition attack is vitally important to the Bulls tonight. Consequently, I think we see a slower pace tonight, especially in the second half and fourth quarter.

On defense the Bulls should continue to do what they did in game one...namely, lock down on Wade and Bosh and let Bosh get garbage baskets. Although I do expect a better game from both Lebron and Wade, I think we see both limited to under 27. Bosh should return to earth with about 18-20. The question is if you believe the Heat's role/reserve players can contribute an additional 20-30 points tonight against the Bulls. I don't think this will happen. I believe the Bulls will dominate the paint once again and continue to dominate the one-on-one matchups with their Heat counterparts. At the same time, however, I expect those same Heat players to play much better on the defensive end, and provide more of a challenge to the offense output of the Bulls' "bench mob." This should lead to 4 less points that we will need to cash the under tonight.

The line movement has been interesting. The line opened at 181.5, then dropped to 180.5 and then rose back to 181.5 where it sits now. I was lucky to get 182 through one of my locals and will have to buy the hook if I want to get that number again. However, that early drop to 180.5 is telling and shows me that that sharps pounded the under upon opening, after which the action evened out and started to come in a bit more on the over. I expect the total to go up another half point or thereabouts and then drop before tip. Even more interesting was the decision not to open up at the 182.5 we saw in the opening game, despite that game going over. That opening number of 181.5 tells me even the books expect a lower scoring game as they knew they needed to protect against early money on the under (which they saw anyway).

This line is very sharp. Whether we win or lose, I expect a final score within 5 points of the 182 number. I have this game capped around 176 to 177, therefore, I think we have good value in the under. The Bulls have a huge tendency to hit the under when facing a playoff caliber team at home and I think that trend continues tonight. The Heat were primed for a huge a letdown after they beat the Celtics and released, what I thought, was a ridiculous display of emotion. I think they now realize the Bulls are a great team and will pose a difficult challenge. Consequently, I expect the Heat's renewed effort to show itself on the defensive end and we see the under hit tonight.

Good luck on all your plays tonight gentlemen. As always, I will post updates on the line and ref
assignments. As you saw in the Dallas game, the ref assignments are really important when it comes to unit size. I
try not to make big plays if the refs
show an opposite lean, so let's hope for
a Rodney Mott type for tonight. I look
forward to hearing your thoughts and
questions. Let's cash this
under!

Adding 5x Heat/Bulls Under (182) (-120) (Locked) for total of 10x

Pinny started juicing the under again so we might see a drop soon. I couldn't get 182 again without buying the hook. However, as I have said before, I think its better to buy the hook during playoff time when the lines are so sharp than losing because of it. I generally don't recommend buying points, especially on totals, but when its a big play and the final score could be close, I think its a wise investment. Good luck tonight.

[nmodi]

Hi LTA...BOL for your under play....I m staying away from this one...As Mia went over several time against BOS defence so I dont feel like to get into under for today...

[lurk]

Yes good luck on the under today, I have a much smaller play on the under. My big play was on the over last night...I made a medium sized play and then avoided your thread because I respect your picks and I was sure you were going to be on the under, didn't want to start feeling worse about my pick and in the short time that I've been here you've been making great cases for the unders. Finally read what you had to say and increased my play before the game, thanks for the pick!

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/18/11

Cubs/Marlins Under (7.5) (+ 100) 1x (locked)

Angels/Mariners Under (6.5) 1x (locked)


Dempster should pitch well, especially against his former team.

Weaver should control the Mariners.

I will have some more mlb moneyline plays a little later. Bol...

[Love The Action]

I actually lean to the 1q over 46 in the bulls/heat game. I expect a furious start by the heat which really slows down after the first quarter. I doubt I will play it though.

[Love The Action]

Anyone know if Ilgauskas will play tonight? I hope so as that should help the under...

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/18/11

Cubs/Marlins Under (7.5) (+ 100) 1x (locked)

Angels/Mariners Under (6.5) 1x (locked)

Orioles ML (-115) 1x (locked)

Royals ML (+ 110) 1x (locked)

Padres ML (+ 110) 1x (locked)


I think that's everything for tonight. Good luck!

[chihawks]

BOL on the under

[Love The Action]

I may also play the braves/dbacks under...still tbd...

[NBA_Brosuf]

I have 3U riding on the under and I will wait for half time to buy 2 more units for a 2H play.

If pace is riding slow in 1H, I let it ride. If pace is high like 100+ points total 1h, I'm buying the under 2H.

LTA got all the moves..... loving it when we all dances together to win or cry together.

[Love The Action]

Total down to 181 just as predicted...