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What does everyone like for Thunder/Mavs game 2?Comment -
I think today's total is really tricky and might make a small play based on the line movement and a few other factors. So far, all the money has been on the over. However, that's not to say someone isn't just driving up the total in order to pound the under.
Before game one, I capped this matchup's total to be somewhere between 195 on the low end and 198 on the high end on a game-to-game basis. Therefore, if the books released a number below 195, the over would have been the play. If the number was set above 198, the under would be the play. This game is set at 200 now, so I should probably be salivating at the value on the under. However, when Dallas plays at home, the game tends to go over. At the same time, can Dallas really shoot over 55% from the field for three games in a row?
There will be unders that hit in this series, I'm just not ready to make any big plays yet. This series is just too unpredictable with respect to the total right now. That is why I may just make a small play based on where the money is.
Keep an eye on line movement today. If you see the line stay at 200 with the over juiced, I might take the over. On the other hand, if you see the line come back down below 199.5, then that would support the under. The public will be pounding the over today as money comes in throughout the course of the day. Therefore, the total should continue to rise. Consequently, if you see it fall, the under may just be the play.
Let's see what the ref assignments say. I think if we get favorable ref assignments for the under and we see some RLM, I may just make a one unit play on the under. If we see refs that favor the over and the total continues to rise, you may want to look at the over. Nevertheless, I think at some point, Dallas is going to shoot less than 50%. Unfortunately, I'm just not convinced it will be tonight. Let's see what some other factors say before we lock anything in. Good luck and play light if you are playing the total tonight.
What does everyone like on the side? On nights like this where I don't have any strong plays, I usually like to play a fun parlay or something like that for a quarter unit or whatever. Let's start to think of fun parlay opportunities we can make. We will play light tonight in what is more of a scouting opportunity to make a big play on game 3. Tonight we we will make some fun plays strictly because we love the action!Comment -
The best thing that could happen tonight is another 210+ total , wich would make an even bigger line for the game 3 in Oklahoma. And than the under will surely have a lot of value in it.Comment -
I've capped it at 201-203, so leaning the over but only for a small play. prefer a bit more leeway. eg game 1 I had it at 195-197 so was more confident going in. I'm expecting line to move up so might place my bet before it does. Good luck
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MLB 5/19/11
Indians ML (+ 115) 1x (locked)
Indians will bounce back strong after getting shut out yesterday. Even though this is a public play and the sox really need this win and should be highly motivated to do so, I think the indians killer offense returns to form tonight. More plays to come. Bol...Comment -
I will most likely play the bulls ml and spread in game 3.Comment -
Keep doing what you do LTA.
Appreciate the time you put in and your analysis has been ridiculously spot on recently.
Cashed another total and halftime with you last night.
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Love your write-ups and analysis LTA, keep up the great work!
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Ref assignments
Spooner is one of my favorite refs for the under. Washington also has an under lean, while willard has a slight lean over. All in all I would be pleased with these assignments if I were on the under.
Considering that my first instinct said under, I currently lean that way. Stay tuned...Comment -
MLB 5/19/11
Astros ML (+ 145) 1x (locked)
I will have a big mlb card today. There are a lot of plays I ready like.
Astros should win this one. Happ hasn't pitched too bad against the cards and if you are going to bert against the cards you might as well do it when mccellan is pitching. Bol...Comment -
MLB 5/19/11
Nationals/Mets under (7) (+ 105) 1x (locked)
Correlated play with my ml play on the nats. Hernandez should pitch well. Bol...Comment -
MLB 5/19/11
Angels/Mariners Over (6.5) 1x (locked)
I like justin smoak and crew to score 3 & the angels to get at least 4 today after getting shut out yesterday. Bol...Comment -
any lock on dal/okc game2Comment -
Still leaning to the under in tonights playoff game.Comment -
I'm seeing bodog is the only one that has it up at 201. I hope all else will follow.
From 197.5 to 201. That's a good telling.Comment -
This is why this totals play in tonight's game is a small unit for me.
Sure Durant and Dirk will not get their 40's and shooting behind the arc will slow down hopefully but we still have West and Kidd who did not get their fair share in game 1. Where Durant and Dirk goes down, Kidd and west goes up. It then becomes neutral so a possible repeat of the same scores of 100+ for both teams.
I'm glad this is a small play or else I'll be going crazy with this.Comment -
I will probably have at least 3x on the under. I know I said to play light earlier, but as I have looked at ther play more, I have liked it more. I will lock it in soon.Comment -
I think we should buy it at 200.5 because I'm seeing a slight half point drop at some bookies.Comment -
Nba 5/19 11
Thunder/Mavs Under (200.5) 3x (locked)
Still at work so no writeup as I'm working off my phone, but I'm rolling with the under because of the value in the high total and the high likilihood that the thunder slow the game down to limit the mavs production. I will try to get some more of my reasoning posted once I can get on the computer at home. Bol...Comment -
Mlb 5/19/11
Rockies ML (-120) 1.5x (locked)
Rockies need a win with their best pitcher at the moment going against the phillies 5th starter. Bol...Comment -
My only NBA play for today will be on the under in tonight between the Thunder and the Mavs for 3x.
As I stated earlier, prior to game 1, I capped this matchup's total to be somewhere between 195 on the low end and 198 on the high end on a game-to-game basis. Therefore, if the books released a number below 195, the over would have been the play. If the number was set above 198, the under would be the play. That is what I planned before the series, so I need to stick with my original plan despite the recent scoring output by the Mavs.
In fact, I think the Mavs recent scoring reinforces this play. The Mavs have shot around 57% combined for their last two games and over 50% from three point range in that same time frame. Simple math tells me they can't keep this up and will revert to a more human level. The question is whether that reversion comes tonight or if it comes in game 3. I expect both teams to shoot around 47% tonight, which would be just enough to keep this game under the high total.
On the other side, I believe OKC will want to slow the game down and play more of a half-court game. This will allow them to keep the ball out Dirk and Co.'s hands in order to keep the scoring down. I think it was clear to the whole world that the way to beat the Mavs at home is not to run and gun up and down the court. That style plays into the Mavs hands as they can use their length and shooting prowess to knock down shots. However, by slowing the game down and playing a more intense brand of defense, you at least give yourself a shot against the Mavs high-powered attack. Consequently, I think you will see a similar game to when OKC played Denver where they slowed the game down and played strong defense.
The refs favor the under tonight with Spooner and Washington. Spooner is one of my favorite refs to have when playing the under. The third ref, Willard, also has some attributes that lean under, although, he is more even-handed. Regardless, I don't think the NBA wants to see a ton of fouls called tonight based on the negative reaction from game one and all the bad foul calls made in that game. Consequently, I think we see 50 ft attempts or under tonight.
Based on the foregoing, plus a few other factors, I like the under for 3x tonight. Good luck.
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thanks LTA and bolComment -
Good luck with the Mavs today folksComment -
Once again thanks for the write up LTA....I've tailed ya few times now with 1 unit bets...This time I tailin' ya w/ the 3 unit bet
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I'm on the under again as well.
Lets get it LTAComment -
Good luck to you LTA. I'm playing the over Here. This one sails over with 30s leftComment -
Adding 1x Under (200) for total of 4x (3x at 200.5 and 1x at 200) (locked)Nba 5/19 11
Thunder/Mavs Under (200.5) 3x (locked)
My only NBA play for today will be on the under in tonight between the Thunder and the Mavs for 3x.
As I stated earlier, prior to game 1, I capped this matchup's total to be somewhere between 195 on the low end and 198 on the high end on a game-to-game basis. Therefore, if the books released a number below 195, the over would have been the play. If the number was set above 198, the under would be the play. That is what I planned before the series, so I need to stick with my original plan despite the recent scoring output by the Mavs.
In fact, I think the Mavs recent scoring reinforces this play. The Mavs have shot around 57% combined for their last two games and over 50% from three point range in that same time frame. Simple math tells me they can't keep this up and will revert to a more human level. The question is whether that reversion comes tonight or if it comes in game 3. I expect both teams to shoot around 47% tonight, which would be just enough to keep this game under the high total.
On the other side, I believe OKC will want to slow the game down and play more of a half-court game. This will allow them to keep the ball out Dirk and Co.'s hands in order to keep the scoring down. I think it was clear to the whole world that the way to beat the Mavs at home is not to run and gun up and down the court. That style plays into the Mavs hands as they can use their length and shooting prowess to knock down shots. However, by slowing the game down and playing a more intense brand of defense, you at least give yourself a shot against the Mavs high-powered attack. Consequently, I think you will see a similar game to when OKC played Denver where they slowed the game down and played strong defense.
The refs favor the under tonight with Spooner and Washington. Spooner is one of my favorite refs to have when playing the under. The third ref, Willard, also has some attributes that lean under, although, he is more even-handed. Regardless, I don't think the NBA wants to see a ton of fouls called tonight based on the negative reaction from game one and all the bad foul calls made in that game. Consequently, I think we see 50 ft attempts or under tonight.
Based on the foregoing, plus a few other factors, I like the under for 3x tonight. Good luck.
I really like the late line movement and added 1x for a total 4x play on this under. The value in the under here is too good to pass up and I have to jump on it for an aggressive 4x play. I'm excited. Let's keep our hot streak going! Good luck!Comment -
Pinny just went to 199.5 with juice on the under
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