LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

[Love The Action]

It's official...my dream matchup...Heat and Bulls.

I know it's probably everywhere, but let's get some Bulls Heat talk going in here.

The Bulls are all business. Notice after the Heat game, BronBron and all his cohorts were crying, rolling on the ground and acting as though they won the championship. Notice after the Bulls game, it was all gentlemanly handshakes and a few congrats. Thibs, Rose and the crew know they still have a job to do. The Heat are just relieved to have made it.

I truly believe none of the Heat, except perhaps Wade, can approach Rose's competitiveness and killer instinct. Lebron may have all the physical ability, but he as not as good a competitor as Rose. Rose has the photographic memory of every bad game he has had and makes a note to exact revenge. Lebron gives Delonte West hugs after the game. Rose and Bron are just two different animals, both great athletes, but Rose has the better competitive instincts and in these series, that means everything.

Bulls should open at +120 or more. I will be playing the Bulls in the Series for at least 5x. This is going to be good. As I've been saying over the past few days, the Bulls present the biggest challenge to the Heat because (1) depth, (2) defense, (3) a fast penetrating PG in Rose and (4) Home Court advantage.

Think about all the formula to beat the Heat....and you will see the Bulls present the biggest challenge.

[suicidekings]

At the same time, today was the first time in the playoffs that the Bulls really played the game they need to play to win against the Heat. The secondary scoring supporting Rose has been very hit or miss. The more I think about it, the more I regret not laying money on the Heat NOT to win the East at +181. Too late now...

[Love The Action]

At the same time, today was the first time in the playoffs that the Bulls really played the game they need to play to win against the Heat. The secondary scoring supporting Rose has been very hit or miss. The more I think about it, the more I regret not laying money on the Heat NOT to win the East at +181. Too late now...

I would disagree with respect to the first time they have played the complete game required to beat the Heat. While it may have been the first complete effort by all major contributors (i.e. Boozer), I would argue both revenge games in the Hawks series were demolition jobs with the defense and intensity that you need. In addition, their offense had a good flow those games.

Everyone will be on the Heat and there will be no value in a series play on the Heat. With home court, I would argue all the value lies with the Bulls in this series.

[ParlayKing]

Thanks for the response LTA, keep the winners coming!

[Love The Action]

Thanks for the response LTA, keep the winners coming!

[Krazymojo]

Huge bulls fan big win!!!!!

[Love The Action]

I actually have a small lean to the over right now in the OKC/Mem game...need to check out a few things.

[kobstopa]

Love it...it's like you read my mind. I like the Bulls too...

good win today..

[nickos86]

Nice hit on the under LTA. Got 0.5units on Under 180 Live 1Q, and took the bait on Under 173/171.5 as well for 0.5units each late game.
Loved Thibbs in defensive stance on the sideline screaming constantly for his players to get up on D even with < 5 mins left and a 25 point lead.

OKC/MEM O/U 195.5. Lower line. Elimination game. How long will the energy last (one days rest + motivation - 3OT - travel).

I have just glanced at the match ups and am slightly concerned for MIA. CHI just have awkward size players for them.
Bulls best positions are out worst - point guard (Rose vs..... Bibby! & Noah will give slow Big Z headaches).

I wouldn't be surprised to see them use Anthony a lot to match the energy + Dampier (who hasn't been seen yet) simply to get some size.

A very important factor to me is Dwyane's performance @ Chicago. Dwyane is from Chicago, has family there, owns a home there and has been at times very close to signing with them from all reports. He goes there in the off season to train with M Jordan's old trainer (though everyone seems to these days). He LOVES playing at CHI, and always goes 110% even in regular season games. Wade is also deadly at home but I might be slightly bias: I own a "this is MY house" dwade t-shirt lol.

Will think more about this later. Maybe repost and ask SJ.

Have a small futures play on CHI @ 2.80 x1 unit, but looks like that will be price of series anyway. MIA price will surely be inflated.

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/12/11

1 - 0 = +5x

In this thread:

9 - 10 = +9
Playoffs so far as documented in previous threads

[Rolo1984]

I am no expert but some things puzzle me. I really do not understand the problem with the heat being happy and crying after their win. LTA, you use it somewhat as a reason to back the bulls because they are all business. For me this is a bogus reason. I can acutally understand them a bit. first of all it is dependent on the players some are more emotional than other. Secondly, let's face it the bulls had not real opposition as of yet. They have played the worst teams in the league would be strange to see them cry. On the other hand miami got a lot of heat on them this season. Lebron being booed in most stadiums. Lebron is also human and it hurts when this happens. So you figure how you would react being booed all season and then get a big playoff win against your big rival who has been beating you the season.

Chicago already won big matches during regular season. Heat had problems with teams being over .500 for them this probably feels like a breakthrough. i can imagine you get emotional things finally happening after so much effort. Would it be my style no. When i played sports had some big wins but never had the urgency to cry. The thing is if chicago would have done it but because the heat does it everyone has another reason to hate the heat. as a sportsbettor I am staying objective. What people do after a game it something i could not care less about

Another thing, i really dont like people playing because of revenge. It is such a bad motivation. Because it means you sucked big time at some point in the first place.

I will probably be betting the bulls because of home court advantage, where the bulls are awesome and away the heat are less of a threath. And because matchups even i can see Rose will trainwreck the heat.

Just a queston LTA. Do you think the C's would have won if Rondon would not have been hurt. Cant imagine them having lost games 4 and 5 with a fit rondo what do you think?

[flush99]

Good work so far. Good luck

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/12/11

Bulls/Hawks under (179) 5x (Locked) WINNER

I love this elimination game under. Both teams should be motivated to play strong D in all phases and a somewhat slower pace on offense. Plus, if the Bulls by some miracle do lose in a game that goes over we have a great chase opportunity on the Bulls and under in game 7.

I may add a few units to the under once I see the refs. I may also have a very public play on the Bulls, especially if that line drops to 3 as it looks it may do this morning. Bol...

NBA 5/12/11

1 - 0 = +5x

In this thread:

9 - 10 = +9
(Playoffs so far as documented in previous threads +39.7x)

Early MLB 5/12/11

TB/cle over (7.5) .5x (locked) WINNER

AZ ML (+ 110) 1x (locked) LOSS

MLB 5/12/11

1 - 1 = -.5x

In this thread:

29 - 21 = +10x

[Love The Action]

I am no expert but some things puzzle me. I really do not understand the problem with the heat being happy and crying after their win. LTA, you use it somewhat as a reason to back the bulls because they are all business. For me this is a bogus reason. I can acutally understand them a bit. first of all it is dependent on the players some are more emotional than other. Secondly, let's face it the bulls had not real opposition as of yet. They have played the worst teams in the league would be strange to see them cry. On the other hand miami got a lot of heat on them this season. Lebron being booed in most stadiums. Lebron is also human and it hurts when this happens. So you figure how you would react being booed all season and then get a big playoff win against your big rival who has been beating you the season.

Chicago already won big matches during regular season. Heat had problems with teams being over .500 for them this probably feels like a breakthrough. i can imagine you get emotional things finally happening after so much effort. Would it be my style no. When i played sports had some big wins but never had the urgency to cry. The thing is if chicago would have done it but because the heat does it everyone has another reason to hate the heat. as a sportsbettor I am staying objective. What people do after a game it something i could not care less about

Another thing, i really dont like people playing because of revenge. It is such a bad motivation. Because it means you sucked big time at some point in the first place.

I will probably be betting the bulls because of home court advantage, where the bulls are awesome and away the heat are less of a threath. And because matchups even i can see Rose will trainwreck the heat.

Just a queston LTA. Do you think the C's would have won if Rondon would not have been hurt. Cant imagine them having lost games 4 and 5 with a fit rondo what do you think?

You asked (1) about my point respecting the Heat's celebration after beating the Celts and (2) if the C's would have won had Rondo not been hurt.

My point with respect to the Heat's ridiculous celebration goes to mentality. The Heat were acting as though they had won something, when in fact they have won nothing. It seems to me, the Heat were just relieved to have beaten the Celtics as though that was a championship in itself. That tells me they put so much emotion into the Celts series and put so much importance on that series, that we could see a big letdown in the E.Conf. Championship against the Bulls. It's all about mentality. The Heat should have understood they still have a job to do. These are professional athletes and should not care if they are booed on the road as you say. That is to be expected. In addition, by their own admission before the season, the Heat knew and expected all of the criticism that would be thrown their way this season. Therefore, why would they undertake such a celebration because they had been booed? It just doesn't make sense. The only explanation I can come up with is that they considered the Celtics their biggest challenge in getting to the championship and felt like through that Celts series win, had already achieved their goal. This is a classic letdown spot for the Heat now after having put so much into the Celts series.

For the Bulls, it's all business. They know they still have two more series to play before they win anything. Plus, the Bulls relish the underdog position and will take full advantage thereof during this Heat series. Everyone will be on the Heat, expecting the Heat to win and the Bulls can just continue to "do work."

I think the mentality of the two teams going into this series is just one tiny part why the Bulls win in 7, not the main reason. However, it is important because, while the Heat were just relieved to have gotten to this point, the Bulls expected to be here and understand there is more work to be done. That tells me the Heat are ripe for a mental letdown in this series against the Bulls.

You also asked whether I think the Celts would have won with a healthy Rondo. I said at the start of the series, that the Celts needed to win one of the first two games to have a shot. Once they didn't win one of those first two games in Miami, I knew the Celts were finished. Consequently, I don't think a healthy Rondo in the last couple games would have drastically changed the outcome. The Celts lost because they couldn't steal one of the first two in Miami.

[Love The Action]

I'm going to be offline for most of today if not all. I have the day off from work and need to attend to some family matters.

I'm going to try to get all of my plays in both NBA and MLB up in the next couple hours.

[aussieH]

Good discussion guys. Should be a great match up. I am hoping for a bulls win over the heat. How highly are boozer and deng. I think they are the keys in the series

[Dexter]

wow....didnt even know you had a thread. great work LTA!

[Love The Action]

FYI...I will most likely take the over tonight in OKC/Mem for between 1 - 3x. As usual, I want to see the ref assignments and I want to get 195 or lower.

I don't have much time to give you all of my reasons, but needless to say I think Memphis shoots much better than the last two games where they were at about 35%. I think we see a fast pace and big game from ZBo. Even though OKC should win at the end, I believe this game hits 197 or more. I like the final score around 102 - 97. Good luck. I will lock it in when I think I have the most value on the line.

I will try to sneak on to let you know when that is. I may not have any MLB plays, not sure yet. Good luck today.

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/13/11

OKC/Mem Over (195) (-120) 2x (Locked)

I will not have any time to monitor lines or go online today as I have a family commitment.

Consequently, I locking this in now and just buying the hook rather than waiting for a line shift. In addition, the lines have moved to even juice, so 195 may never materialize without buying the hook. In the playoffs, I do not mind paying a little extra juice and in this game that hook could be very important. I expect a final score somewhere between 193 and 202 total points. However, I think with the line set so low, we are offered a little more value on the over in this elimination game as opposed to the under, so I am going to roll with the value.

Memphis will play an upbeat and uptempo pace with energy on both ends of the court. They understand its win or go home. Everyone has been talking about ZBo's lack of stamina due to playing a ton of minutes and I think he will come out ready to play well. They will not hold back and I predict this leads to a fast pace.

Memphis has shot well below 37% the last two games. That can be attributed to horrible shot selection, no offensive rhythm and the defensive adjustments of OKC. I expect Memphis to shoot much better today, and that percentage up to 43%+ on over 80 fg attempts. With a little better three point shooting, we should see this game squeak over today.

OKC will score 100+ today. I have no doubt they will come out ready to play. They have been a bit more consistent than Memphis and I believe we can rely on them to hit 45% of their shots tonight.

Consequently, based on the history of quicker pace between these two teams and the liklihood that Memphis shoots better than the previous two games, I think there is some good value in the over here set at the number of 195 or lower.

The ref assignments feature Davis, Foster and Garretson. This presents a fair assignment for the over. Davis and Foster generally favor the over just slightly and Garretson has just a slight under lean. Therefore, I think there is a chance we get 50+ free throws today.

Based on the foregoing factors, I will be rolling with the over for 2x. I am bucking the elimination game under trend because I think there is more value in the 195 number on the over. Therefore, it is important you try to get 195 or lower if you can. Good luck today guys.

[MysteryMung]

goin in with you brother - sounds like monay

[hoyas2007]

I like Memphis a lot in this spot, but hard to see OKC not score. I'm going to take Memphis and also put in a small parlay of Memphis with the over. I agree with you that they will shoot well tonight and OKC will need to score to keep up, which they should do.

[NBA_Brosuf]

yes, about time LTA and me seeing things on the same page. I have to make a mental note that if I and others are not on the same page, it is a no play for me.

I have good faith that memphis will score more than the 70's foolish points they gave out last time around. Durant and west hardly play and they posted up 19 and 11 and yet, the team total is already up at 99. Everything I'm seeing is pushing for the over game and that total at the 195ish range is just too generous or maybe it is a trap by vegas? They wanted us to take the over?

Who cares, I'm riding with LTA for once. LOL

[Love The Action]

Back home for an hour or so before heading to a party. I saw the total in tonight's game has gone up in a few places to 196 and otherwise seems steady at 195.5. Glad I bought that hook.

I was just checking out the Bulls/Heat total for Sunday. That opened at 182.5 and big money knocked it down to 181 right away, despite 80%+ on the over.

Despite that fact, I may be riding the first game of series over trend in that first game. Especially if the total continues to drop to 180 or so. I doubt it will, but if we can get a little more value, I believe the over might be the play. No decision yet though as I have not even begun to look into everything for my initial series summary and how I expect it to play out.

I plan to have a couple writeups pertaining both to the series and my predictions on totals in that series. I think we're going to have a really profitable Eastern Conference Finals.

[asdfghasdfgh]

I like the under and Memphis here, good luck. Unders in elimination games have done well in past playoff series.

On a random note, I love Breaking Bad. It's literally the only thing I watch on TV besides sports and summer can't come soon enough.

[Love The Action]

I like the under and Memphis here, good luck. Unders in elimination games have done well in past playoff series.

On a random note, I love Breaking Bad. It's literally the only thing I watch on TV besides sports and summer can't come soon enough.

Best show on TV...that's why Mr. White aka Heisenberg is on my avatar...can't wait for the new season.

Good luck tonight...

[smarsh816]

i think the over is a good play they wont shoot that bad today and u can prolly see 10 or more points in the final minute

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/13/11

Oakland ML (-120) .5x (Locked)

Red Sox ML (-103) 1x (Locked)

Phil/Atl Over (7) .5x (Locked)

CWS/Oak Over (7.5) .5x (Locked)

Tor/Min Under (8) 1x (Locked)

Good luck tonight guys. I had some time to go over the MLB card before I had to leave and saw a few plays worth playing light. No time for writeups, but I think we will have a nice profitable night tonight in MLB.

[Joweman]

You are always on the unders so the fact that ur on an over makes me very interested in this pick

[Love The Action]

The total in the OKC/Mem game came down to 195. I may add a .5x to 1x to our current 2x play on the over. Gotta leave soon for the family party. Good luck tonight.

[Love The Action]

You are always on the unders so the fact that ur on an over makes me very interested in this pick

You're right that I have been on a lot of unders lately. However, I usually play where I think the value lies in a particular matchup. To me, it was under or nothing for both the Heat/Celts and Atl/Chicago series.

This OKC/Mem series is different in a lot of ways. Plus, I just think we have seen such bad shooting by Memphis in the last couple games, that they should rebound with a nice shooting night at home. I also expect a very fast pace. Because we are getting value on this line 195, I have to take it. I have this capped around 197-198, so I will take a shot on the over. I do hate going against the elimination game under trend, but it's not a 100% trend and I can see a lot of factors why that trend does not hold up tonight. BOL...

[Love The Action]

MLB 5/13/11

Oakland ML (-120) .5x (Locked)

Red Sox ML (-103) 1x (Locked)

Phil/Atl Over (7) .5x (Locked)

CWS/Oak Over (7.5) .5x (Locked)

Tor/Min Under (8) 1x (Locked)

Good luck tonight guys. I had some time to go over the MLB card before I had to leave and saw a few plays worth playing light. No time for writeups, but I think we will have a nice profitable night tonight in MLB.

Adding .5x to Tor/Min Under (got 7.5 now) for a total of 2.5x on this play

I realy like Pavano's pride to show up here and pitch a good game for once. Romero is pitching for Toronto and like him to have a bounceback performance from a few bad outings. Minnesota has been trending under, and although Toronto's been hitting well and cashing overs lately, I really like this play to cash. BOL..

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/13/11

OKC/Mem Over (195) (-120) 2x (Locked)

I will not have any time to monitor lines or go online today as I have a family commitment.

Consequently, I locking this in now and just buying the hook rather than waiting for a line shift. In addition, the lines have moved to even juice, so 195 may never materialize without buying the hook. In the playoffs, I do not mind paying a little extra juice and in this game that hook could be very important. I expect a final score somewhere between 193 and 202 total points. However, I think with the line set so low, we are offered a little more value on the over in this elimination game as opposed to the under, so I am going to roll with the value.

Memphis will play an upbeat and uptempo pace with energy on both ends of the court. They understand its win or go home. Everyone has been talking about ZBo's lack of stamina due to playing a ton of minutes and I think he will come out ready to play well. They will not hold back and I predict this leads to a fast pace.

Memphis has shot well below 37% the last two games. That can be attributed to horrible shot selection, no offensive rhythm and the defensive adjustments of OKC. I expect Memphis to shoot much better today, and that percentage up to 43%+ on over 80 fg attempts. With a little better three point shooting, we should see this game squeak over today.

OKC will score 100+ today. I have no doubt they will come out ready to play. They have been a bit more consistent than Memphis and I believe we can rely on them to hit 45% of their shots tonight.

Consequently, based on the history of quicker pace between these two teams and the liklihood that Memphis shoots better than the previous two games, I think there is some good value in the over here set at the number of 195 or lower.

The ref assignments feature Davis, Foster and Garretson. This presents a fair assignment for the over. Davis and Foster generally favor the over just slightly and Garretson has just a slight under lean. Therefore, I think there is a chance we get 50+ free throws today.

Based on the foregoing factors, I will be rolling with the over for 2x. I am bucking the elimination game under trend because I think there is more value in the 195 number on the over. Therefore, it is important you try to get 195 or lower if you can. Good luck today guys.

Adding .5x to Over at 195 (-110) (Locked)

Good luck tonight! I'm out for the evening. Let's cash this elimination game OVER!

[NBA_Brosuf]

Adding .5x to Over at 195 (-110) (Locked)

Good luck tonight! I'm out for the evening. Let's cash this elimination game OVER!

I'll tail you

I'm buying some more on the over because you said so.

[flush99]

Best of luck today on your plays

[Love The Action]

NBA 5/13/11

OKC/Mem Over (195) (-120) 2x (Locked)
Adding .5x to Over at 195 (-110) (Locked) LOSS

I will not have any time to monitor lines or go online today as I have a family commitment.

Consequently, I locking this in now and just buying the hook rather than waiting for a line shift. In addition, the lines have moved to even juice, so 195 may never materialize without buying the hook. In the playoffs, I do not mind paying a little extra juice and in this game that hook could be very important. I expect a final score somewhere between 193 and 202 total points. However, I think with the line set so low, we are offered a little more value on the over in this elimination game as opposed to the under, so I am going to roll with the value.

Memphis will play an upbeat and uptempo pace with energy on both ends of the court. They understand its win or go home. Everyone has been talking about ZBo's lack of stamina due to playing a ton of minutes and I think he will come out ready to play well. They will not hold back and I predict this leads to a fast pace.

Memphis has shot well below 37% the last two games. That can be attributed to horrible shot selection, no offensive rhythm and the defensive adjustments of OKC. I expect Memphis to shoot much better today, and that percentage up to 43%+ on over 80 fg attempts. With a little better three point shooting, we should see this game squeak over today.

OKC will score 100+ today. I have no doubt they will come out ready to play. They have been a bit more consistent than Memphis and I believe we can rely on them to hit 45% of their shots tonight.

Consequently, based on the history of quicker pace between these two teams and the liklihood that Memphis shoots better than the previous two games, I think there is some good value in the over here set at the number of 195 or lower.

The ref assignments feature Davis, Foster and Garretson. This presents a fair assignment for the over. Davis and Foster generally favor the over just slightly and Garretson has just a slight under lean. Therefore, I think there is a chance we get 50+ free throws today.

Based on the foregoing factors, I will be rolling with the over for 2x. I am bucking the elimination game under trend because I think there is more value in the 195 number on the over. Therefore, it is important you try to get 195 or lower if you can. Good luck today guys.

NBA 5/13/11

0 - 1 = -2.7x

In this thread:

9 - 11 = +7.3x

It was a frustrating loss last night. We had the right projections with Memphis as they shot 43% on over 80 fg attempts just as predicted. However, OKC just really let us down. OKC scored 54 points in the first half, 33 points in the second quarter alone, and then go on to score only 29 points the rest of the game. They only scored 14 in the third quarter and 15 in the fourth quarter. Just pathetic.

I did not get a chance to watch the game. Can anyone fill me in on why OKC played so bad in the 2h? It looks as though the cause was Durant's horrible game with only 11 points. If he gives you his average, the over cashes.

I sort of have an early lean to the over in game 7, but think it will be hard to pull the trigger. Durant should have a big game. The question is if Memphis will be able to score in OKC...

We are still up well over 35 units from the start of the playoffs as documented in past threads. However, we have been up and down in this second round. We have killed the Bulls/Hawks series, cashing over 30 units. However, the Heat/Celts series really hurt us as we lost a big play on the under because of overtime and few other unders that lost by just a few points. If we could have gotten a few more unders in the Heat series, we would be up over 20x for this second round. However, we can't make excuses, it is what it is, and we need to move on. We're still up a healthy 7x in the second round games and profit is profit so we can't complain too much. Plus, we remain hot in the MLB so the overall profit in this thread remains consistent on a day to day basis.