LTA's NBA Plays for Round 2, Conf. Finals & Championship

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • Love The Action
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 11-08-10
    • 10952

    #246
    Originally posted by Love The Action
    These two teams played four games this year, all of them with playoff-like intensity, and three of the four games stayed under the posted total. The ending totals of these games were as follows: 168 (under the posted total of 189), 219 (over the posted total of 183.5), 167 (under the posted total of 188.5) and 177 (under the posted total of 183). I see this series following the trends of these preceding games, with both teams focusing on a slow pace that is predicated on defense and half-court offense. In the only one of the aforementioned games which went over the posted total, both teams shot over 50%. I don't see these two defensive-minded teams shooting 50% consistently game after game in this series. Even if they do, the slow pace which results from this matchup may still allow for some unders. For example, in the last game where the teams played to a 177 total, the Heat shot 50.3% in scoring 100 points, while the Celtics shot 45.3% in scoring 77 points. Despite these high shooting percentages, the game stayed under the posted total because of the slow pace.

    I believe we will see collective field goal attempts hover around the 143 - 145 range. In the aforementioned games, we saw total field goal attempts of 143, 151, 145 and 139. With respect to three point attempts, we should expect an average of around 35 total three point attempts per game with a collective hit rate in the 30% - 40% range. Finally, we should expect around 50 free throws attempted per game as well (which, as you know, depends heavily on the ref assignments) with a collective hit-rate around 75%.

    If we are conservative and say 45 collective points will result from three point shots, that would leave us with a 135 point cushion from the approximate 113 remaining field goal and 50 free throw attempts per game which should result from the pace we expect in this series. With a solid shooting percentage of 45% on those remaining 113 remaining fg attempts (equates to about 101 total points) and 75% on the 50 free throw attempts (equates to about 37 points), we would get a total expectation of 183 points (as an fyi, this is also the number derived from my regular season deviation spreadsheet). Using those conservative numbers, we would cash the under more often than not with a total set around that magic 183 number. Remember, those are using conservative numbers; with the defensive effort expected to be put forth by these two teams in this playoff series, I expect the shooting percentages outlined above to be consistently lower. This has proven to be true in three of the last four games between these two teams.

    Unfortunately, oddsmakers understand all of this and have not given us much value on the under with this total posted so low. The line opened at 182.5 and basically stayed steady until it dropped to 182 early this morning. Currently, the action is pretty even on both the over and the under, with slightly more action on the under as I type. However, as we get closer to tip, I expect the casual bettor to pound the over and perhaps we get a half point or more to use to our advantage if we decide to add units. Nevertheless, we need to remain flexible in order to adjust to the oddsmakers adjustments. For example, if the first game ends with a total of 160 and oddsmakers go down to 175, we would probably adjust and play the over because that is where the value lies. I always try to make the play that has the most value. However, in the real world, we would never see such a huge adjustment from the oddsmakers so I expect the under will remain our play.

    I am concerned that, perhaps for this first game of the series, we see both teams run a little more than they will in the later games. After all, it's not unusual to see an over hit the very first game of any playoff series. Take a look at the first round games for evidence of that concept. However, as we get to the more important games, I fully expect both teams to really clamp down on defense and employ a slow, half-court style of offensive play.

    We have plenty of trends to support this under play. While I don't I put a ton of stock in these "publicly available" trends, I do think they are important to note in support of or against a particular play. Here are some of the trends which support the under:

    Boston:
    • Under is 5-0-1 in Celtics last 6 vs. NBA Southeast.
    • Under is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
    • Under is 7-1 in Celtics last 8 games following a S.U. win.
    • Under is 6-1 in Celtics last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
    • Under is 5-1 in Celtics last 6 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
    • Under is 13-3 in Celtics last 16 Sunday games.
    • Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 road games.
    • Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
    • Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.
    • Under is 4-1-1 in Celtics last 6 playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
    • Under is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.
    • Under is 20-6-1 in Celtics last 27 vs. Eastern Conference.
    • Under is 19-6-1 in Celtics last 26 overall.
    • Under is 11-4 in Celtics last 15 games as an underdog.
    • Under is 7-3 in Celtics last 10 Conference Semifinals games.
    • Under is 9-4 in Celtics last 13 games as a road underdog.
    • Under is 34-16-1 in Celtics last 51 games following a ATS win.
    • Under is 48-23-1 in Celtics last 72 games following a SU win of more than 10 points.

    Heat:
    • Under is 6-0 in Heat last 6 games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
    • Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 playoff games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.
    • Under is 5-0 in Heat last 5 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
    • Under is 7-0-1 in Heat last 8 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
    • Under is 4-0 in Heat last 4 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.
    • Under is 7-1 in Heat last 8 games following a S.U. win.
    • Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
    • Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 overall.
    • Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 Sunday games.
    • Under is 6-2 in Heat last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
    • Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 vs. NBA Atlantic.
    • Under is 5-2 in Heat last 7 games as a favorite.

    In addition, this first game will be played at 3:30pm EST. These two teams are a combined 4-16 in favor of the under during games that take place during the day. Consequently, I think it is safe to say the trends favor the under in this series.

    For the foregoing reasons, I will be playing the under in this first game of the Heat/Celtics series. Because that 183 number is so important for the posted total, we will base the remainder of our plays on the adjustment of the oddsmakers away from that magic 183 number. If there is value on the over, we won't be afraid to pull the trigger. However, I believe I have laid out why the under is the better play, and as long as we do not see a large adjustment from the oddsmakers, the under will probably remain our play in this series.
    Originally posted by Love The Action
    Added 2.5x to Under (183) for a total of 7.5x on the Heat/Celts Under

    I will have a write-up on this one as I believe I have spotted an angle I really like and will exploit in this game. This will be a 10 unit play if I get the right ref assignments. This play will hit today! Write-up to come...
    Added 2x to Under (183) for a total of 9.5x on the Heat/Celts Under

    I've posted my original write-up on this series above. Much of that still applies to this game.

    The only reason we lost the game 2 under was because (1) both teams shot about 50% from three point range and (2) these two teams were given a combined 58 free throws by the refs. I don't see either team shooting as well from three point range today and I really don't see anywhere near as many foul calls by the refs happening today. We only need about ten points less from the game 2 score to cash this under and I think we can make that up by a few less three's hitting and a few less foul calls being whislted.

    In this game, I think both teams' perimeter defenses adjust and we don't see anywhere near 50% from three. In the last game, these two teams went a combined 13 for 27 from three point range. If they take the same number of 3pt attempts, but only make 10 (which is still a great percentage), we will cash this under. That's all it takes. I think both teams make some adjustments and neither team shoots as well from three point range in this game. It would be huge deviation for both teams to shoot as well as they did in the last two games from three point range and I don't see it happening once again today. I expect 1 - 3 less three pointers being made and that should help our under cash today.

    The second reason I think this goes under is the refs. In this game you have Kennedy, Javie and Delaney as the refs. Delaney and Kennedy have no lean, while Javie has a slight under lean. Because we don't have any refs that really favor the over, I don't think we see 58 free throw attempts today like we did in game 2. 58 free throw attempts is a ton of free throws for a playoff game and I do not see a repeat of that many happening here. In the last game, the refs were calling ticky tack fouls and trying to keep order after tossing Pierce in the first game. I don't think we'll see any of that today and I expect that they let these two teams play a bit in Boston. After all, the only way Boston comes back to tie this series is to play tough and physical. If they play like that and the refs call fouls, they will lose. However, if the refs allow physical play, Boston should win. Because I believe the NBA wants a Boston win here to extend the series, I think the refs will let them play tonight in Boston. I would expect somewhere closer to 50 free throws rather than 60. As long as we get 50 free throws and they make around 75%, we should cash the under.

    Finally, I like the under here because it is in Boston. If you look at the history of this matchup, these two teams have played a faster tempo and shot better when they have played in Miami. However, when they played in Boston, these two teams played to final scores in the 160's. Plus, Shaq is returning tonight and will add some size to the interior defense for Boston for the 10 -15 minute he plays. In addition, his presence will slow down the pace of the game. Because this game is in Boston, I see tonight's game having a slower pace with more emphasis on defense and half court offense. I have no doubts that tonight's game will be the first under in this second round matchup.

    Because all we need is few less three pointers and a few less free throws, and because this game is being played in Boston where the pace has historically been slower in this matchup, I like this game to go under the posted total. Good luck!
    Comment
    • Love The Action
      SBR Posting Legend
      • 11-08-10
      • 10952

      #247
      Originally posted by Love The Action
      Also for NBA 5/7/11

      OKC/Mem Under (200) 1x (Locked)

      Adding 1x OKC/Mem Under (200) for a total of 2x on Under (Locked)

      Today is the day we finally see an under in this series. The last game was on an under pace the whole way until the fourth quarter when the refs stole the under from us. I expect the same pace today, but without the 30 foul calls. The refs today favor the under expect for Fraher. Plus, in case any of the currently scheduled refs can't go, Mott is the alternate and we all know what the means. I would expect both teams play a slower pace and we should get less fouls today. Therefore, I'm rolling with the under in this one for 2x. Good luck!
      Comment
      • Love The Action
        SBR Posting Legend
        • 11-08-10
        • 10952

        #248
        Originally posted by Love The Action
        Adding .5x to Brewers ML (+108) for a total of 1.5x (Locked)

        Minn/Boston Over (9) 1x (Locked)

        Both teams have been scoring a great deal of runs lately and Bucholtz has been getting hit pretty hard. On the other hand, Duensing has been pitching well, but his bullpen has not been helping him out. For example, he only gave up a couple runs in his last start against KC, but his pen gave up 8 in the eighth inning. Nevertheless, I like both teams to get at least 4 runs and someone has to win which will push this game over. This is a Fox game and I think both teams hitters come to play in Boston and put up some crooked numbers on a national TV game. Finally, you have 70% of all bets on the under, yet the books are protecting against the over big time. This, after opening up by doing the opposite. Therefore, despite all this action on the under, the books seem more worried about the over. I like the over in this one and it's worth 1x. Good luck!

        Mil/St. Louis Under (8.5) 1.5x (Locked)

        I expect good pitching performances from both Gallardo and Lohse with Gallardo and the Brewers coming out on top 3-2. Good luck
        Comment
        • Love The Action
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 11-08-10
          • 10952

          #249
          I would have liked the lines not to have gone up a half point in each game. However, I don't put much stock in it because it's just the weekend over bettor pounding the over in both games. If you notice, there are more bets in these two games than there were during the week. Most of the action coming in today was public money as most sharps already got down. Not worried and still love Heat/Celts under and really like the OKC/Mem under. Good luck!
          Comment
          • Love The Action
            SBR Posting Legend
            • 11-08-10
            • 10952

            #250
            More mlb

            Atlanta ML (+ 100) 1x (Locked)



            Young stud going for Braves...I like playing debuts. Gl...
            Comment
            • Love The Action
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 11-08-10
              • 10952

              #251
              This under would be cashing so damn easy if it wasnt for these teams shooting over 50% combined....
              Comment
              • EntengKabisote
                SBR Rookie
                • 03-07-11
                • 22

                #252
                Man not feeling good about the under.I hope they wont shoot like this 2nd half.
                Comment
                • Love The Action
                  SBR Posting Legend
                  • 11-08-10
                  • 10952

                  #253
                  Hedge out if your not feeling it...
                  Comment
                  • Love The Action
                    SBR Posting Legend
                    • 11-08-10
                    • 10952

                    #254
                    Can the reserves keep shooting so well? I don't think so.
                    Comment
                    • skaterplayer808
                      SBR High Roller
                      • 03-06-11
                      • 104

                      #255
                      LTA you still feel good about it or what?
                      Comment
                      • EntengKabisote
                        SBR Rookie
                        • 03-07-11
                        • 22

                        #256
                        Winner!! Thank goodness I didnt hedge. Thanks again LTA.
                        Comment
                        • chevy6
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 04-06-11
                          • 476

                          #257
                          yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh its a sweep
                          Comment
                          • Love The Action
                            SBR Posting Legend
                            • 11-08-10
                            • 10952

                            #258
                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                            Added 2x to Under (183) for a total of 9.5x on the Heat/Celts Under WINNER

                            I've posted my original write-up on this series above. Much of that still applies to this game.

                            The only reason we lost the game 2 under was because (1) both teams shot about 50% from three point range and (2) these two teams were given a combined 58 free throws by the refs. I don't see either team shooting as well from three point range today and I really don't see anywhere near as many foul calls by the refs happening today. We only need about ten points less from the game 2 score to cash this under and I think we can make that up by a few less three's hitting and a few less foul calls being whislted.

                            In this game, I think both teams' perimeter defenses adjust and we don't see anywhere near 50% from three. In the last game, these two teams went a combined 13 for 27 from three point range. If they take the same number of 3pt attempts, but only make 10 (which is still a great percentage), we will cash this under. That's all it takes. I think both teams make some adjustments and neither team shoots as well from three point range in this game. It would be huge deviation for both teams to shoot as well as they did in the last two games from three point range and I don't see it happening once again today. I expect 1 - 3 less three pointers being made and that should help our under cash today.

                            The second reason I think this goes under is the refs. In this game you have Kennedy, Javie and Delaney as the refs. Delaney and Kennedy have no lean, while Javie has a slight under lean. Because we don't have any refs that really favor the over, I don't think we see 58 free throw attempts today like we did in game 2. 58 free throw attempts is a ton of free throws for a playoff game and I do not see a repeat of that many happening here. In the last game, the refs were calling ticky tack fouls and trying to keep order after tossing Pierce in the first game. I don't think we'll see any of that today and I expect that they let these two teams play a bit in Boston. After all, the only way Boston comes back to tie this series is to play tough and physical. If they play like that and the refs call fouls, they will lose. However, if the refs allow physical play, Boston should win. Because I believe the NBA wants a Boston win here to extend the series, I think the refs will let them play tonight in Boston. I would expect somewhere closer to 50 free throws rather than 60. As long as we get 50 free throws and they make around 75%, we should cash the under.

                            Finally, I like the under here because it is in Boston. If you look at the history of this matchup, these two teams have played a faster tempo and shot better when they have played in Miami. However, when they played in Boston, these two teams played to final scores in the 160's. Plus, Shaq is returning tonight and will add some size to the interior defense for Boston for the 10 -15 minute he plays. In addition, his presence will slow down the pace of the game. Because this game is in Boston, I see tonight's game having a slower pace with more emphasis on defense and half court offense. I have no doubts that tonight's game will be the first under in this second round matchup.

                            Because all we need is few less three pointers and a few less free throws, and because this game is being played in Boston where the pace has historically been slower in this matchup, I like this game to go under the posted total. Good luck!
                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                            Also for NBA 5/7/11

                            OKC/Mem Under (200) 1x (Locked)

                            Adding 1x OKC/Mem Under (200) for a total of 2x on Under (Locked) WINNER

                            Today is the day we finally see an under in this series. The last game was on an under pace the whole way until the fourth quarter when the refs stole the under from us. I expect the same pace today, but without the 30 foul calls. The refs today favor the under expect for Fraher. Plus, in case any of the currently scheduled refs can't go, Mott is the alternate and we all know what the means. I would expect both teams play a slower pace and we should get less fouls today. Therefore, I'm rolling with the under in this one for 2x. Good luck!
                            NBA 5/7/11

                            2 - 0 = + 13.5 units

                            In this thread:

                            6 - 5 = + 15.9 units

                            We hit another big play with a huge 9.5x winner in the Heat/Celts under and a nice 4 unit winner with the OKC/Mem under despite OT in that one.

                            We are killing the playoffs so far with over 46 units of profit earned in the playoffs alone (15.9 in this thread).

                            Let's keep the profit train rolling with our two plays tomorrow. I hope a few of you got on these plays today.

                            Good luck tomorrow!
                            Comment
                            • Love The Action
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 11-08-10
                              • 10952

                              #259
                              Originally posted by EntengKabisote
                              Winner!! Thank goodness I didnt hedge. Thanks again LTA.

                              Good choice
                              Comment
                              • Love The Action
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 11-08-10
                                • 10952

                                #260
                                Originally posted by chevy6
                                yeahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh hhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh its a sweep

                                Comment
                                • Love The Action
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-08-10
                                  • 10952

                                  #261
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  MLB 5/7/11

                                  Brewers ML (+110) 1x (Locked) WINNER

                                  Everyone will be on the Cardinals in this one and rightfully so based on recent performance. However, I see an upset here as Gallardo faces Lohse in what is a must-win situation for the Brewers. The BrewCrew got blanked yesterday and we always like to back a team after getting shutout. After getting swept in a doubleheader a few days ago by Atlanta, you have over 80% of all ML bets on the Cards. Yet, the price for Milwaukee is getting worse after opening at +120 and the Cardinals price has gotten more attractive. Why do you think the books are pushing the Cardinals here and making them more enticing? I'll tell you why, it's because Milwaukee is in a classic bounceback spot here. I'm rolling with the Brewers for 1x right now, but will probably add once I get a better look at the rest of the games and see what else will be on my card. BOL...
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Adding .5x to Brewers ML (+108) for a total of 1.5x (Locked) WINNER

                                  Minn/Boston Over (9) 1x (Locked) LOSS

                                  Both teams have been scoring a great deal of runs lately and Bucholtz has been getting hit pretty hard. On the other hand, Duensing has been pitching well, but his bullpen has not been helping him out. For example, he only gave up a couple runs in his last start against KC, but his pen gave up 8 in the eighth inning. Nevertheless, I like both teams to get at least 4 runs and someone has to win which will push this game over. This is a Fox game and I think both teams hitters come to play in Boston and put up some crooked numbers on a national TV game. Finally, you have 70% of all bets on the under, yet the books are protecting against the over big time. This, after opening up by doing the opposite. Therefore, despite all this action on the under, the books seem more worried about the over. I like the over in this one and it's worth 1x. Good luck!
                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Mil/St. Louis Under (8.5) 1.5x (Locked) WINNER
                                  I expect good pitching performances from both Gallardo and Lohse with Gallardo and the Brewers coming out on top 3-2. Good luck
                                  More mlb

                                  Originally posted by Love The Action
                                  Atlanta ML (+ 100) 1x (Locked) LOSS
                                  MLB 5/7/11

                                  2 - 2 = + 1.2 units

                                  In this thread:

                                  18 - 10 = + 8.9 units

                                  Our MLB profit train continues as we cash our 1.5 unit bets on Mil and the Mil under. Atlanta couldn't pull out their game and Boston/Minn didn't put up the runs like we expected, but we'll take a little over one unit a day of profit any day. Our MLB plays are filing on all cylinders right now so I hope a few of you out there are taking advantage of these plays. Good luck!
                                  Comment
                                  • hawley
                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                    • 05-10-10
                                    • 14270

                                    #262
                                    Bulls under tomororw LTA?
                                    Comment
                                    • Love The Action
                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                      • 11-08-10
                                      • 10952

                                      #263
                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                      NBA 5/8/11

                                      LAL/Dal Under (188) 5x (Locked)

                                      Chi/Atl Under (179) 5x (Locked)

                                      I really like both unders in this spot. Both games barely went over yesterday and I expect the zig zag to be in full effect for the unders tomorrow. Atlanta will be motivated to play better defense after getting embarrassed yesterday and the Lakers must play better defense or they will be eliminated. I locked them in now because I don't want to risk losing any value, despite the chance that both lines do go up a bit. These will be both public fades as I expect the public to be on both overs at about 80%+ just like they were for game 2 when we cashed both unders. Write-ups to come.

                                      I may also have a play on the side in the Bulls game. The ML is currently -160 and I rarely play favorites that big on the ML. Perhaps a buy-down from 3.5 to 3 on the spread would be better. I need to do some math and look at the game a bit more. Good luck!

                                      Here are our plays for tomorrow that we put in earlier today. I will try to get you guys write-ups, but rest assured we put our work in making these plays and I really like both. Let's check out what the ref assignments say and perhaps we add a unit or two. Neither of these will be more than 6 unit plays most likely, but I do expect to hit them both. Good luck!
                                      Comment
                                      • Love The Action
                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                        • 11-08-10
                                        • 10952

                                        #264
                                        Originally posted by hawley
                                        Bulls under tomororw LTA?

                                        You know it Hawley! I like Atlanta to come out playing really hard tomorrow and clamping down on the Bulls reserves. A big reason why the Bulls won in the last game and the game went over, was because of the Bulls bench. The "bench mob" as they are called, killed it for over 30 points. However, I don't see quite the same success for them tomorrow. In addition, I don't see Rose going off for another 40 point game. He may hit 30, but I don't see 40 in the cards.

                                        Atlanta needs to come out strong and play some good perimeter defense if they want to win. The same with the Bulls, they need to keep Atlanta under their thumb. I see the Bulls winning 91 - 85 and the under cashing.

                                        Will you be on it as well?

                                        BOL to you!
                                        Comment
                                        • NBA_Brosuf
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 02-14-11
                                          • 2489

                                          #265
                                          Originally posted by Love The Action
                                          You know it Hawley! I like Atlanta to come out playing really hard tomorrow and clamping down on the Bulls reserves. A big reason why the Bulls won in the last game and the game went over, was because of the Bulls bench. The "bench mob" as they are called, killed it for over 30 points. However, I don't see quite the same success for them tomorrow. In addition, I don't see Rose going off for another 40 point game. He may hit 30, but I don't see 40 in the cards.

                                          Atlanta needs to come out strong and play some good perimeter defense if they want to win. The same with the Bulls, they need to keep Atlanta under their thumb. I see the Bulls winning 91 - 85 and the under cashing.

                                          Will you be on it as well?

                                          BOL to you!
                                          Like always, I would like to cross exam the under in the Chicago game. Yeah I know, me and my over. LOL

                                          Rose is not going to get another back to back 40+ game and that is reasonable however, Noah only had 2 points and Deng only had 7 points. Are they going to play better in game 4? If so then that points to more points which then makes it an over game.

                                          On atl side. Both Crawford and Joe Johnson played horrible in game 3. ATL also had 1-6 or 16% being the arc. If ATL can improve on their side, the score on their side will help to push for an over game.

                                          This is a must win game for ATL. A lost here will give Chicago fans an elimination game at home court.

                                          What we need to know is if ATL is going to try to win this game with defense (under game) or try to outscore Chicago with offense (over game) as we seen in game 1. To which now is to be determine.
                                          Comment
                                          • rochestertitans
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 12-14-09
                                            • 8149

                                            #266
                                            good luck
                                            Comment
                                            • flush99
                                              SBR Hustler
                                              • 03-20-11
                                              • 80

                                              #267
                                              nice job today guys
                                              Comment
                                              • Love The Action
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 11-08-10
                                                • 10952

                                                #268
                                                Originally posted by rochestertitans
                                                good luck
                                                And to you...
                                                Comment
                                                • Love The Action
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                  • 10952

                                                  #269
                                                  Originally posted by flush99
                                                  nice job today guys

                                                  Comment
                                                  • Love The Action
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                    • 10952

                                                    #270
                                                    We start Mother's Day expecting another profitable day. After a bit of a stumble on Monday and Tuesday, the profit train has been rolling and we are currently up 13 units this week from our NBA and MLB plays heading into Sunday's games.

                                                    Currently, we have two pending plays in the NBA for 5x each on the LAL/Dal Under 188 and Chi/Atl Under 179. I may also have a play on the Bulls side.

                                                    I have already previewed the MLB card and have pinpointed my leans. I am going to delve into those games right now to pick out some more profitable investment opportunities for us. Good luck on everyone's plays today!
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Fishballs
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 02-01-10
                                                      • 526

                                                      #271
                                                      likes the play, got both under and chiML. BOL
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Love The Action
                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                        • 10952

                                                        #272
                                                        Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                        More mlb


                                                        MLB 5/7/11

                                                        2 - 2 = + 1.2 units

                                                        In this thread:

                                                        18 - 10 = + 8.9 units

                                                        Early MLB 5/8/11

                                                        Toronto ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

                                                        Minnesota ML (+175) .6x (Locked)

                                                        Hou/Pit Under (8) 1x (Locked)

                                                        More plays to come. I like Toronto after getting no-hit yesterday to bounceback against Penny at a decent price for a home team. I also like the odds on Pavano going against Boston here because he was fired up after last game and will be pumped to pitch today. Mcdonlad is pitching well for the Pirates and both teams should keep it under 3 runs today. GL...
                                                        Comment
                                                        • tom1234
                                                          SBR Sharp
                                                          • 08-06-09
                                                          • 325

                                                          #273
                                                          LTA ,are you gonna add more units on under NBA games, thanks
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Love The Action
                                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                                            • 11-08-10
                                                            • 10952

                                                            #274
                                                            Originally posted by Love The Action
                                                            Early MLB 5/8/11

                                                            Toronto ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

                                                            Minnesota ML (+175) .6x (Locked)

                                                            Hou/Pit Under (8) 1x (Locked)

                                                            More plays to come. I like Toronto after getting no-hit yesterday to bounceback against Penny at a decent price for a home team. I also like the odds on Pavano going against Boston here because he was fired up after last game and will be pumped to pitch today. Mcdonlad is pitching well for the Pirates and both teams should keep it under 3 runs today. GL...

                                                            A's ML (-115) .5x (Locked)

                                                            Late addition....
                                                            Comment
                                                            • NBA_Brosuf
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 02-14-11
                                                              • 2489

                                                              #275
                                                              Liking the lakers under at 188 but bulls and 179 is just too scary for me.

                                                              What is the deal with Chicago totals be in the 170ish in many of their games.....as ifffffff

                                                              It'll be good to see what the total would be if chicago faces up with high scoring rocket like OKC. I need for the total to get out of the 170ish slump for me to make a play.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Love The Action
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 11-08-10
                                                                • 10952

                                                                #276
                                                                Originally posted by Love The Action

                                                                Early MLB 5/8/11

                                                                Toronto ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

                                                                Minnesota ML (+175) .6x (Locked)

                                                                Hou/Pit Under (8) 1x (Locked)


                                                                A's ML (-115) .5x (Locked)

                                                                Cubs ML (-110) 1x (Locked)

                                                                Cincy/Cubs Under (7.5) 1x (Locked)


                                                                Comment
                                                                • Love The Action
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                                  • 10952

                                                                  #277
                                                                  Originally posted by tom1234
                                                                  LTA ,are you gonna add more units on under NBA games, thanks

                                                                  Probably not. I feel 5 units is aggressive enough for both these games and I don't see as many factor pointing to the under, as I did, for example, in game 2 of Bulls/Hawks or game 3 of the Heat/Celts (both big under plays that cashed).

                                                                  Although, it might not be a bad idea. All of the refs today generally have no lean or favor the under. You gotta love that. And, the line movement has generally favored the under with both games falling a half point while the majority of all bets on the under. That is a great formula for a winning play and we have it in both games. However, I think 5 units are pretty good sized bets already and you need to pick and choose your spots when to go big. You can't go big on every play or you will get burned.

                                                                  I will post if I add though. Good luck!
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Love The Action
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 11-08-10
                                                                    • 10952

                                                                    #278
                                                                    Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
                                                                    Liking the lakers under at 188 but bulls and 179 is just too scary for me.

                                                                    What is the deal with Chicago totals be in the 170ish in many of their games.....as ifffffff

                                                                    It'll be good to see what the total would be if chicago faces up with high scoring rocket like OKC. I need for the total to get out of the 170ish slump for me to make a play.

                                                                    You need to get that whole "I'm scared of taking unders in the 170's" thinking out of your head.

                                                                    Granted, you don't have much wiggle room with totals set that low. However, ask yourself why the books are setting them that low? The answer is because they expect a low scoring game.

                                                                    The books WANT you to stay away from totals in the 170's because of the high liklihood that they stay in the 160s. I can go on and on why yours is flawed thinking, but I will just advise that I won a great deal of profit this year from pounding low-total unders. Remember, think outside the box with respect to sports investing and you will be better off. Good luck...
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • GTS925
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 11-06-10
                                                                      • 1158

                                                                      #279
                                                                      I bet the Bucks won you so much money!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • Love The Action
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 11-08-10
                                                                        • 10952

                                                                        #280
                                                                        Originally posted by GTS925
                                                                        I bet the Bucks won you so much money!



                                                                        Yep! And Atlanta, Orlando, New Orleans, Boston, Portland, Bulls, Bobcats, and others...
                                                                        Comment
                                                                        Search
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        SBR Contests
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                        Collapse
                                                                        Working...