Added 2x to Under (183) for a total of 9.5x on the Heat/Celts Under
I've posted my original write-up on this series above. Much of that still applies to this game.
The only reason we lost the game 2 under was because (1) both teams shot about 50% from three point range and (2) these two teams were given a combined 58 free throws by the refs. I don't see either team shooting as well from three point range today and I really don't see anywhere near as many foul calls by the refs happening today. We only need about ten points less from the game 2 score to cash this under and I think we can make that up by a few less three's hitting and a few less foul calls being whislted.
In this game, I think both teams' perimeter defenses adjust and we don't see anywhere near 50% from three. In the last game, these two teams went a combined 13 for 27 from three point range. If they take the same number of 3pt attempts, but only make 10 (which is still a great percentage), we will cash this under. That's all it takes. I think both teams make some adjustments and neither team shoots as well from three point range in this game. It would be huge deviation for both teams to shoot as well as they did in the last two games from three point range and I don't see it happening once again today. I expect 1 - 3 less three pointers being made and that should help our under cash today.
The second reason I think this goes under is the refs. In this game you have Kennedy, Javie and Delaney as the refs. Delaney and Kennedy have no lean, while Javie has a slight under lean. Because we don't have any refs that really favor the over, I don't think we see 58 free throw attempts today like we did in game 2. 58 free throw attempts is a ton of free throws for a playoff game and I do not see a repeat of that many happening here. In the last game, the refs were calling ticky tack fouls and trying to keep order after tossing Pierce in the first game. I don't think we'll see any of that today and I expect that they let these two teams play a bit in Boston. After all, the only way Boston comes back to tie this series is to play tough and physical. If they play like that and the refs call fouls, they will lose. However, if the refs allow physical play, Boston should win. Because I believe the NBA wants a Boston win here to extend the series, I think the refs will let them play tonight in Boston. I would expect somewhere closer to 50 free throws rather than 60. As long as we get 50 free throws and they make around 75%, we should cash the under.
Finally, I like the under here because it is in Boston. If you look at the history of this matchup, these two teams have played a faster tempo and shot better when they have played in Miami. However, when they played in Boston, these two teams played to final scores in the 160's. Plus, Shaq is returning tonight and will add some size to the interior defense for Boston for the 10 -15 minute he plays. In addition, his presence will slow down the pace of the game. Because this game is in Boston, I see tonight's game having a slower pace with more emphasis on defense and half court offense. I have no doubts that tonight's game will be the first under in this second round matchup.
Because all we need is few less three pointers and a few less free throws, and because this game is being played in Boston where the pace has historically been slower in this matchup, I like this game to go under the posted total. Good luck!
I've posted my original write-up on this series above. Much of that still applies to this game.
The only reason we lost the game 2 under was because (1) both teams shot about 50% from three point range and (2) these two teams were given a combined 58 free throws by the refs. I don't see either team shooting as well from three point range today and I really don't see anywhere near as many foul calls by the refs happening today. We only need about ten points less from the game 2 score to cash this under and I think we can make that up by a few less three's hitting and a few less foul calls being whislted.
In this game, I think both teams' perimeter defenses adjust and we don't see anywhere near 50% from three. In the last game, these two teams went a combined 13 for 27 from three point range. If they take the same number of 3pt attempts, but only make 10 (which is still a great percentage), we will cash this under. That's all it takes. I think both teams make some adjustments and neither team shoots as well from three point range in this game. It would be huge deviation for both teams to shoot as well as they did in the last two games from three point range and I don't see it happening once again today. I expect 1 - 3 less three pointers being made and that should help our under cash today.
The second reason I think this goes under is the refs. In this game you have Kennedy, Javie and Delaney as the refs. Delaney and Kennedy have no lean, while Javie has a slight under lean. Because we don't have any refs that really favor the over, I don't think we see 58 free throw attempts today like we did in game 2. 58 free throw attempts is a ton of free throws for a playoff game and I do not see a repeat of that many happening here. In the last game, the refs were calling ticky tack fouls and trying to keep order after tossing Pierce in the first game. I don't think we'll see any of that today and I expect that they let these two teams play a bit in Boston. After all, the only way Boston comes back to tie this series is to play tough and physical. If they play like that and the refs call fouls, they will lose. However, if the refs allow physical play, Boston should win. Because I believe the NBA wants a Boston win here to extend the series, I think the refs will let them play tonight in Boston. I would expect somewhere closer to 50 free throws rather than 60. As long as we get 50 free throws and they make around 75%, we should cash the under.
Finally, I like the under here because it is in Boston. If you look at the history of this matchup, these two teams have played a faster tempo and shot better when they have played in Miami. However, when they played in Boston, these two teams played to final scores in the 160's. Plus, Shaq is returning tonight and will add some size to the interior defense for Boston for the 10 -15 minute he plays. In addition, his presence will slow down the pace of the game. Because this game is in Boston, I see tonight's game having a slower pace with more emphasis on defense and half court offense. I have no doubts that tonight's game will be the first under in this second round matchup.
Because all we need is few less three pointers and a few less free throws, and because this game is being played in Boston where the pace has historically been slower in this matchup, I like this game to go under the posted total. Good luck!