Congrats guys, keep up the good work
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Originally posted by alanspoil
Actually I'm scared when the whole house and forum is on the under for the Boston game. I just not seeing the value with the under play here. Maybe I'm wrong but lets see what's up in my write up here. IT is just a simple write up.
The first score is the actual scores for game 1 by individual players. The second score is their usual averages.
wade 38 24.8
jones 25 5
james 22 23.8
ray allen 25 22.6
pierce 19 21.6
rondo 8 16.8
garnett 6 13.6
bosh 7 17.7
-Expecting for wade to come down to earth and he will hit around his average or less since he has trouble playing against Miami. Points loss.
-expecting Jones will not have a career high 25. The dude only average 5 points per game. Major point loss
-King James will get his numbers like usual. He will either match his 23 or higher which will give us more points.
-Allen will come down to earth and will be tallying his average.
-Pierce hits his average play but got ejected with 7 minutes left. The dude was on a roll to exceed his average. More points.
-Rhondo scored below his average. expecting him to hit his average or more in game 2.
-Garnett also went lower than average. Expecting him to hit his average or more in game 2.
-Bosh had only 7 points. HIs average is 17. The dude is going to step up to become one of the the group that makes him the elite trio. More points please.
Even with Boston shooting poorly and guys not scoring except for ray allen who is the 3 ball masters, they scored 90 points. The least they will get in this next game is 90 points if everyone on the Boston team can shoot closer to their averages. You already sux bad with stats in game 1 and yet, you are able to put up 90 points. We know that Miami can put up more than 90 points. Here is a simple scenario and I'm being generous here 90+90 aka suck+suck = 180. The total is at 182 for game 2. The play here is over if everyone can do a tad better than last game.
Boston missed 20 of its first 26 shots in the first quarter. In game 2, non of this bullchit bricking by boston which means more points expected.
Avg Points Allowed bos 91.1 mia 94.6
If you add up them average points allowed, it goes higher than the posted vegas line of 182.
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Boston's last 6 games when playing on the road against Miami
Also, this may not be of any value but if you are a sequence breaker, you will play the over. In their last 6 games from recent, it looks like this.
Game 1 - over
the one before - under
the one before - under
the one before - over
the one before - under
the one before - under
So basing it upon a sequence, it would like to go under. Do you believe that at some point, the sequence is going to break?
Will the second round be nothing but Overs?
game one chicago went over
game one memphis went over
game one boston went over
What is next???? Time for a due to hit under?
Here is something interesting about a trend that I'm seeing. When Boston or Miami hits 99+ points, it favors the over (except for 1 game where Miami hits 100 and blew out boston with 77).
Someone got to hit that 90+ points right? Well if not then good defense and I will take a loss.Comment -
I made a write up like this and for me to lose? Um-possible. LOLOriginally posted by NBA_Brosuf
Man, the whole house of regulars on sbr are on the under. Tailers all died.
I didn't tail so did I get lucky?
Once again, Boston played horrible but yet, still had 90+ points. If heats also play horrible and get 90 points, it is close to what the vegas line be pushing out.
I called it first that if someone gets 100+ points, it is going to be over. Look at their match up records. Them stats don't lie. No more tailing for me. I'll live and die on my own.
Playoffs record 25-30-1 +22u left to playComment -
Money was on memphis but yet, the line of OKC lost value at closing? I have to make a note of that. The above statement looks decent so far. Will it also work for Chicago for tomorrow? As soon as the line comes out, take chicago to win at home. SU parlay if you like. Even after AtL beat Chicago and yet, chicago is still heavy fav, no bet for me. It then becomes a trap game? We will know when the line comes out.Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
Playoffs record 26-30-1 +26u left to playComment -
Dallas +7 1U
I am continuing to play dallas to eat the spread since they are so darn good when it comes to ATS. Ride the trend here. Line out at 6.5. I'm getting it at 7 and not too sure how long that 7 will last.
Lakers ML is a good bet here. I'm betting that Lakers will win but backdoor with dirk or kidd with some junk last shot to ruin the day for some. LOL
7 point is still a whole lots of cheese to give. You give 7 points to teams like clippers, nets and them bottom feeders. You don't give no 7 points to an elite team and one who whoop your azz the previous game. Lakers needed a win here. If they don't, they are so in trouble back in Dallas for the next 2 sessions.Comment -
dallas game over 186.5 1UOriginally posted by NBA_Brosuf
Even with Kobe with his 36 points, he is going to come down to earth but don't count out on kobe as he is chasing Micheal Jordan with them playoffs +30 or more points. If Kobe can hit in the upper 20's, that is good enough for the over to hit.
Small unit play here as both teams are about neck to neck and the Vegas line is also at neck to neck. Artest only had 3 points and I'm expecting him to improve in this next game. Same can be said with Bynum who had 8. Improving pushes for the over. Kid also needs to improve his scoring as well.
What is interesting about game one is that them Lakers scored only 2 points in the final 3:32 of regulation. That means points loss but yet, the total in that game went over. Now if you hold everything else constant and give Lakers another chance with 3:32 minutes left, they will pack up them points for a super over. LOL
Lakers shot only 26% behind the arc in game 1. They are going to improve that number and improvement pushes for a super super duper over than game 1 over. LOL
I capped game totals very fruity but yet, as long as it makes me money, it is all good. I would love to give this play here another unit but the situation with Kobe and his ankle is a small unit play for me. If the dude is cold, I'm sure he should get at least a double digit figure points. He has been getting double digits points like 80 something consecutive games now. With Kobe not making them points, and with them factors that I mentioned above should even things out with a repeat of a game one total, It is going over. I'm betting with confidence. Never say lock but say with confidence. LOL
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Adding 1 more Unit to the Lakers game going over for a total of 2U
I just noticed that the totals in game 1 went over by just 2 points, despite Lakers only scored 2 points in the last 3:32 minutes of regulation. Lakers only shot 26% beyond the arc, artest had only 3 points and yet, the total is still 2 points on the over?
When you have a bad day and it barely goes over the over, expect it to go super over on the next game when everyone can just improve a teeny tiny little bit. LOLComment -
Let's have some winners todayComment -
Originally posted by alanspoil
I'm confident with my lakers over play but not the dallas or the chicago over that i"m capping.
Lets make you some money. LOL
-joe made all 5 3 pointers and 5-5 from the free throw line
-rose did not made his first shot until the 4 minute marker of the 2nd quarter.
JOe is not going to produce them better days for himself on a back to back. It is hard to do so unless you are of an elite caliber. I think Joe only averages about 20 points per game. That's average, not elite.
Rose is going to perform better in game 2 if Chicago wants a win here at home. The guy did not even shoot a free throw and in game 2, expect him to shoot some and more.
Joe points coming down to earth and Rose points increases for a push. (+ and - = 0)
-Hawks shot 51.3 percent from the field and 53.8 percent (seven for 13) from 3-point range.
-The Bulls missed their nine field goal attempts and shot 28.6 percent (six for 21) in the first quarter.
51% shooting wins game. It is hard to keep it at 50% on a back to back game. Average is in the 40ish percents. Come down to earth ATL and you are not going to be in the 50% range behind the arc. Chicago is going to adjust to this defense scheme here.
Horrible shooting in the 1st quarter by them bulls. They can not go any worse and I'm betting that they will improve no doubt.
Once again, you have minus points and plus points which equals to a 0.
So when you have a 0 and another 0, I see no value to play the bulls game.
Chicago shot horrible but yet, they are able to get 95 points. 95 x 2 = 190 which then points to an over game.
chicago over 180.5 1U
To smell the water since watching a game without placing a wager is just boring. LOLComment -
you are small fish baby easy to eat this game finish under ...Originally posted by NBA_BrosufComment -
yeah I know. The bookie wants their money back and I don't mind giving some back to them.Originally posted by nbaprofosor
I give back small but when I'm feeling it and hitting hard, that is when it counts the most.
If you or anybody bets large while I bet small the other way, I hope that you guys cash it because you guys are riding on it larger than I do. I want us all to be successful at the finish line.Comment -
lLakers are the playComment -
Respect JR.Originally posted by JR007
I just can't pull the trigger on lakers giving 7 point spread. Lakers win but scared of closer like Dirk or possible 3 ball by Kidd to ruin the party for some.
Lakers to win SU for game 2 is a better bet. When a home team loses game one, their 2nd game is a must win and they will win SU or suffer down the road.
I also saw some stats where if a team wins game one and it goes to game seven, they have a super duper higher percentage to win SU in that last game. Just food for thoughts.Comment -
I'm on the over Lakers/Dallas game as well.... I wish I had it at 186.5 though.... I'm at 188 ouch! Still like it for 1u though
Good Luck!
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you give some back alrightOriginally posted by NBA_Brosuf
)))) how did you go last night 1-3. i see you are best capper alright)))) .yo small fish its ok you swim in your small pool .but dont come and try to eat that sharks.in the big oceans.
yeah you are right they should tail you.....Originally posted by NBA_BrosufComment -
Lakers are pure trash!!! No moreComment -
Come on now professor E, this forum all knows who is the most famous for being a fluke. It is either you or me but I'm sure you and your awesome threads are more famous than I am. LOLOriginally posted by nbaprofosoryou give some back alright)))) how did you go last night 1-3. i see you are best capper alright)))) .yo small fish its ok you swim in your small pool .but dont come and try to eat that sharks.in the big oceans.
yeah you are right they should tail you.....
Small unit lose no problem here. Can't win it all the time and can't put a gun to them Lakers head so they can shoot them 3's better or play any better. I was expecting them to improve but Laker's a fluke of nature.
I heard what you say alanspoil. Lakers didn't keep up on their end. Barely getting over 80 points and calling yourself a team to be feared? Lakers a joke until they proven otherwise. They shot horrible 3 ball in game 1 and in game 2, 2 for 20?Lakers are pure trash!!! No more
Even if my model of play says that Lakers will improve, I have little faith in a team who skunk 2 times to produce them stats. No more betting on unstable teams.
What I am going to bet on is the hot streak by Dallas as they are notorious for beating against the spread. They are only fav by 2 points and they get home court advantage. In one of these 2 games at home, dallas is going to win at least 1 out of the 2 games so if I lose tomorrow, I double my bets and bet them again in game 4. Here is why I'm playing Dallas.
-We know that Artest is out. A plus for Dallas.
-When losing Games 1 and 2 of a best-of-seven series, the Lakers are 2-16 all time. In NBA history, teams that go on to win the first two games on the road have won the series 15 of 18 times.
-The Lakers are a frustrated team right now. Even their home court fans are booing Pau Gasol. They have no team chemistry.
-The Lakers played terrible and they were 11-for-20 from the free throw line. I'm like come on man. If only they make some 3's and shoot better from the line, that over was nice in game 2.
Dallas -2 2u
and like I say, if lose, double up in the next game and continue to ride Dallas out. I believe Dallas also has a good home court record. Bank on Dallas and leave them hopeful plays for them Lakers make a wish foundation fans. LOL
Playoffs record 27-32-1 +24u left to playComment -
With you on Dallas -2. Thank youComment -
Originally posted by alanspoil
oh yeah? well ok then.
Upgrading dallas for 1 more unit.
Dallas -2 3U total
When My picking and cappers pickings are lining up, I have to give my bet an upgrade.
GG, LC, SJ all on dallas.
Lets hope so.Comment -
Playoffs record 28-32-1 +27u left to playOriginally posted by NBA_BrosufComment -
Memphis -3 1U
Memphis is 22-5 when coming off a loss!
Memphis is pretty good ATS.
Memphis game over 200 1U
The over has gone over in memphis/okc last 7 2011 games. Yes, no kidding, all over.
Even Zack had only 15 points and only made 2 baskets, the rest is on free throws, memphis still had 100+ points. Now game 3 here, I'm expecting for zack to get more than 15 points and that's a given.
boston game over 183 1U
The stats all points to an under game but I'm seeing this game hitting in the upper 188.
Miami had 99+ points in 2 games and holding boston to a 90 or so score. To get the over to hit, someone has to get their 99 or more points or if it is a close game in the 90's then it will go over. I don't have a problem with them celtics hitting the 90s again. They shoot poorly in game 2 with Ray allen only 7 points due to a good defensive job by wade and yet, they scored 90 points. If you take 90+90, you get 180 and the spread is at 183. I have talked about this in the last write up. You can only improve in your game when you already skunk out unless you are like them lakers, skunk even worse on their back to back games. LOL
No play for me on the sides for I smell a trap. Miami is underdog at Boston and yet, check out this betting trend.
Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Stats say that Boston will get the job done but it is hard to bet on a 0-2 team aka a must win team. The lakers can't do it, why should boston?
Best of luck to all of us.Comment -
Great Dallas. Poor LakersComment -
Memphis game over 200 1U
OT can't even save the over total in Memphis. LOL
under backers, good job and a good call. My lost.
Playoffs record 28-33-1 +26u left to play
Memphis -3 1U
winner on this one here.
Playoffs record 29-33-1 +27u left to playComment -
Like Oh am gee. Add a 6 to that stats right there. Miami 0-6 SU and ATS when playing against Boston and in Boston.Miami is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
Miami is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Boston
boston game over 183 1U Loser
The over was on route at the end though. Boston just played the clock in the last 3 minutes and I blamed on Miami for not keeping up to par with their own scores. How horrible the big trio of Miami played? Worst than average I say. I'm asking for a little bit more effort to get the over going and Miami choked. Props to Celtics big three though. It is like a reverse action totally. Pierce and Garnet, upper 20's and what a game for them two. I'll take a lost here and try again harder.
Playoffs record 29-34-1 +26u left to playComment -
Man....you love those overs. Remember, as you get to the later games of these series, you will see more unders as defensive adjustments are made, more pressure is on the players and individual familiarities are heightened. Overs will generally hit early and unders late. Also remember that when you get great individual performances in one game, you can expect the opposite in the next game. Good luck on your plays tomorrow!Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
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Loving the tips there boss.Originally posted by Love The ActionMan....you love those overs. Remember, as you get to the later games of these series, you will see more unders as defensive adjustments are made, more pressure is on the players and individual familiarities are heightened. Overs will generally hit early and unders late. Also remember that when you get great individual performances in one game, you can expect the opposite in the next game. Good luck on your plays tomorrow!
I think I am going to tail someone (wink) when I'm not too sure sure about my total plays. I'm still learning how to sharpen it up. This is my very first year doing research for nba cappings and boy, I'm loving it. Like always, I still have a lot to learn.
Saw you on a good runner and a big one too. Wish I saw it earlier to ride the waves with you. I think Imma post my plays after you post your plays. When capping and tailing combines, you know what I'm saying? LOLComment -
Lakers under 188 2U
Elimination game means tougher defense right?
Weird how I'm seeing the total to this game in the 169 arena and line is at 188 which gives me about 19 points to be wrong. LOL
Dallas sweep or a zig zag to bring game back to Lakers? Who cares, I'm on the total and I'm rooting for a slow game, more brick shots or 1 guy like Kobe hogging the ball and getting all his shots and leaving the rest of his teammates wondering when will they get to see that basketball. LOL
If there is a fixing game, they'll fix the game and not the total.
Scores are from game 3.
Dirk will not get no 30+ scoring
Terry will not get no 23
stojakovic will not get no lucky 15
Dallas will not be in the high 41% behind the arc
bynum will not get 21
odom not getting 18 since Artest is back
Only scary part is Kobe. The dude will get more than 17 points.
and them lakers are going to shoot more 3's than just 3 from behind the arc in game 3.
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of the LA Lakers last 14 games on the roadComment -
Chicago -3.5 2U
Wouldn't it be good for Chicago if they win game 4 and take it back to their home court and fans to win the series? How bad does Chicago wants to do this?
Also -3.5 is also a gift. Game one crawford and Johnson got a lucky streak thus all. If they are of an elite caliber, they can score and continue to score high at all the time. Ever see Dirk and Kobe scores fluctuate so much? No luck here. It is either they shoot better or record best. I'm not scared if Crawford or Johnson puts up a lights out show like game one again. Maybe against them Wizards or something but not these Bulls. Buying early because I have a good feeling that the line will hit -4 or more down the stretch.Comment -
Good luck with your picks.Comment -
Adding 1 more Unit to this under game here. Dallas game under 3U totalOriginally posted by NBA_Brosuf
I'm adding because the whole house is on them lakers under. I don't think anyone is going to get 95 points in this game. 95+95 = 190 = over so Dee up.......Comment -
Who would of thought about a record breaking 3 ball game? Lose by the 3 ball game.Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
Playoffs record 29-35-1 +23u left to playComment -
Down for the day so buying 2 More units and hoping for the best.Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
Playoff style, play aggressive. Chicago 4U total
Lets gooooooComment -
One day you are hot, the next you're not. Chicago has lost all confidence with me in this playoff. Even if they can blow out teams by 200+ points, I will not and I will repeat, I will not bet on Chicago. I'm totally done with Betting on chicago, the over rated team for real.Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
No betting on unstable teams.
Playoffs record 29-36-1 +19u left to playComment -
Boston game over 181 3U
I'm keeping my composure and not chasing after a loss and not going on tilt.
I'm seeing that to get 181, both teams need to shoot about 90 points each. In all 3 games, both teams are able to shell out 90 points each except for game 3 by Miami who only scored 81. This here shows that it is possible for both teams to hit their 90 points mark for the over to hit.
I'm tired of hearing this under in playoff with defense bureaucrat mumbo jumbo. It didn't happen in the dallas elimination game nor did it happen in the chicago bull blow out game so over and under are capable of hitting in this second round.
I'm expecting Miami to adjust and recover from their poor shooting in the last game and improve their scores. James only had 15 points. Kind of low there son. The only thing that is scary is Boston were shooting lights out by GArnett and Pierce and Anthony and the score is only 97 points. I'm not expecting for them to shoot well in the next game so a loss of points can be seen here.
The over and under trend is peculiar in this one.
The last 10 times these two teams played with the recent on top, it looks like this.
game 4 ?????
u
o
o
u
u
O
u
u
o
o
With the exception for the one in bold, it looks like the sequence is a stacking uu/oo. This game 4 here is asking for another under to follow the sequence but I'm betting that such sequence will break somehow. Maybe it will not break the sequence in game 4 but if the sequence continues to follows, I will bet the other way in game 5 on the under.
Lets see how fruity I'm capping this total in the most oddest ways in hoping to get a break from my slump.
Even sbr forums best cappers can't help me, who is going to help me now? I'll just help myself until I finally give up. LOLComment -
why you even make this thread you are public man)))))))))))) any way enjoy what ever you do))))
it must be suck, loosing a bet after a big write up)
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