Nba_Brosuf mid season to finals cherry picking

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  • NBA_Brosuf
    Restricted User
    • 02-14-11
    • 2489

    #666
    Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
    chicago game 3

    -The scores in the 4th quarter was sad at 14-10. Improvements yes (+)

    -Bulls shot 34% from the field, 61% free throws, 3 of 20 behind the arc. improvements yes (+)

    -Deng just 2 points in the 2nd half. Rose just 21 points. Bosh just 10 points, improvements yes (+)

    -Heat 3 for 13 from the arc, 75% free throws. Improvements yes (+)

    -The Heat took 14 less shots (68) and two less free throws than the Bulls in game 2. Improvements yes (+)

    -zebras assignment is showing an average of 182 (+/- 2) which is over the 179 totals. Slightly over lean (+)

    -Sequence Play

    Game3 ???
    87+86 = 173 U
    108+95 = 203 O
    95+87 = 182 O

    last 3 games that were played in Miami between these two squads and if we go by the given spread today at 179, it shows that the average for 3 of them games are about 186. Now compare that to 179 that is given tonight.

    -In the playoff and when playing in miami and if the total is set at 179, it'll look like this.
    philly game 1 over
    philly game 2 under
    philly game 5 over

    bos game 1 Over
    Bos game 2 over
    Bos game 5 over

    so techincally, when played in Miami in the playoff, the total game scores have gone over 179 about 5 to 1. (+)

    +7 means the play is over. There will be points made to make up from the horrible days that Chicago is getting in game 2.

    Chicago over 179.5 2U

    As for the sides, I'm cheering for the bulls to win. I have the bulls for the series and plus, a lost by Miami at home will set up a nice situation play for game 4 in Miami.

    No play on the sides. I'll just watch it to gain some knowledge for the next one.
    Just inching along for the winner.

    Playoffs record 45-43-1 +44u left to play

    I already got my write up for the OKC/DAL game 4 but I'm sharing it tomorrow and before the launch of game time.

    I just hope me and the rest of the sbr brothers are on the same sides again. If not then that's ok too. A small play for me as I am glued to what I am smelling in game 4 of the western conference final.
    Comment
    • alanspoil
      SBR High Roller
      • 07-17-10
      • 233

      #667
      Another good call, thank you
      Comment
      • NBA_Brosuf
        Restricted User
        • 02-14-11
        • 2489

        #668
        Originally posted by alanspoil
        Another good call, thank you
        Thank you Alan. With every ups, there will be some downs so expect a few loses here and there but like I said, I rather win the big money ticket and lose them small dinky ticket. Here goes the write up for tonight. Be warn, it is fruity though because most of the time, I really don't know what I'm talking about. LOL


        okc game 4

        If we break down all 4 quarters in game 3, you will notice that OKC is still a contender against Dallas. In 2nd quarter, okc lost by 1 point (24-25).
        In 3rd, okc won. In 4th OKC won but the deciding factor is okc came out running cold in the 1st qtr. which gives dallas a nice early advantage to
        the victory lane. Not only this, the 3 ball was killing OKC. They will improve and they shall improve. Although I'm not seeing them winning the
        series since the advantage now goes to Dallas but they might end up winning game 4 SU. This 2nd home game for OKC is a huge one and a must win for them
        to stay competitive in this series. Lets not forget that OKC has not lost a back to back game in this playoff and has a good record of winning
        back to back game coming from a loss in the regular season. They are also playing in OKC which should give OKC that extra advantage to win in game 4.
        Do remember that OKC were down by 20+ and ended up losing by 5. A come back is an indicator that even david can still slaughter the giant.
        If you can say something, just say that the OKC lost because the clock ran out. in game 3.

        Take a look at this stats here. In this 2011 playoff, When a team loses at home in game 3 SU, they come back beating the other team in game 4. Here are some
        for examples.

        atl lose at home game 3 at home to chicago then ends up beating chicago in game 4
        NO lost to LaKers in game 3 at home then ends up beating lakers in game 4
        denver lost to okc in game 3 at home then ends up beating okc in game 4
        Indy lost to chicago in game 3 at home then ends up beating chicago in game 4
        philly lost to heat in game 3 at home then ends up beating heat in game 4
        OKC lost to dallas in game 3 at home then ?????????


        By all means, if OKC loses, they are done and I will bet against them for the rest of the series!!!!
        Which record here will bring more ratings for the NBA with sales and revenues? Dallas 3-1 or Tie 2-2.

        By golly, I want it to tie so I can have an extra game to cap and possible to make more money or lose them all due to tilt. LOL
        The only thing that is scary in this game 4 here is knowing that Dirk did not even try (well he played well without scoring) and yet, Dallas still wins.
        Small play for me because of this Dirk might have a golden day in game 4 plus Dallas is still notorious ATS.

        OKC -4 1U

        With the total play, I am fading a particular character that I have been tracking for the longest time. He is not from sbr but from another website and this is his record here.

        -okc game 4 over ????
        -lakers -6 loser
        -memphis +6 loser
        -atl +7 loser
        -okc under 207 winner
        -chi over 189.5 loser
        -portland +3 loser
        -gsw +12 denver loser
        -lakers -5 okc loser
        -memphis -9 sac loser
        -boston +4 loser
        -sac +9 hou winner
        -indy -2 bucks lose
        -dallas +6 lakers lose
        -sac game Denver under 217 win

        As you can see, his record is a sad 3-11 and tonight, he is on the over. That means he is a fading material and so I'm playing the under.
        He might also be a squirrel who is still searching for a nut so he might win tonight, who knows but I know that I have capped this game 4 here at around the 188 marker.

        196 means that each teams need to put up 98 points. I'm not too worried about okc getting higher than 98 but lets talk about Dallas and their playoff record to how many games they gotten the 98 points team total.

        5-7-1

        So we see here that Dallas has a slight lean on the under team total of 98 or less in this playoff alone.
        Now lets see what Dallas of 98 team total points when they are away in this playoff.

        1 game over 98 and 5 games under 98

        Yet, the stats show there clearly that Dallas has a hard time getting points when they are not in their own house.

        In game 3, the total was 180 and with expected points jump up by a lacking from dirk and more 3 balls by okc and a drop in scoring from Marion and West, I'll give it another +8 points to that 180 total for an under at 188 game. Defense game in OKC still prevails. Defense should get tougher now that these two teams have been playing with each other for quite some time now. So I hope. LOL
        Also I'm fading the public here. Public on Over, I'm on the under. This is a do or die time for OKC so OKC is going to concentrate more on defense first to stop Dallas from scoring so they can have a chance to score and be back in this series. If Dallas can even get to 100+ points in game 4, OKC, you are the weakest link and might as well just give up in game 5.

        Been waiting all day just to earn half a point. Me and line movement watching is like bird watching....tweet tweet...LOL


        OKC total under 196.5 2U

        Come and give me some yum yum for the dum dum.
        Comment
        • alanspoil
          SBR High Roller
          • 07-17-10
          • 233

          #669
          Better today.
          good luck
          Comment
          • NBA_Brosuf
            Restricted User
            • 02-14-11
            • 2489

            #670
            Originally posted by alanspoil
            Better today.
            good luck
            Well both public plays won. The public must eat too to stay alive in this game. I give props to them public plays. Congrats.

            Playoffs record 45-45-1 +41u left to play

            Better luck on the Miami game tonight.

            I'll do this later. Someone out there, give me some tip leads please. I have a 4U play coming to make up for the loss from yesterday.
            Comment
            • NBA_Brosuf
              Restricted User
              • 02-14-11
              • 2489

              #671
              I'm seeing a 172 total game in Miami. Kinda low eh? Yeah I know. me too.

              I have been monitoring the line movement and noticed that the public is starting to pound some heavy money on the over to give the under about half more point. I'm buying it at that price of 179.5.

              sequence play: Last few times that these two squad meets

              game 4???
              o
              u
              o
              u
              u
              ____
              o
              u
              o
              u
              u

              wow, would you take a good look at that? Sequence is in perfect harmony that looks like this UUOUO. Chit my friend, it wants to be beautiful and go U. Well, I'll let it be beautiful to go under because under is the play. It is due to break the sequence with an over but I'm not playing the due theory. Ride the sequence until it breaks.

              Playoff is defense so where is my defense? Miami played well last game and had a team total of 96 which is the highest they had in this series. It is not going any higher because Chicago is still notorious for their defense to slow the opponent down. Chicago lost game 3 because they can not seem to get any offense going and Miami adjusted their offense by feeding the ball to the Hot hands of the trios. I think Miami is going to continue to play what works for them. They can double Rose to give him trouble and let other guys try to shoot but if they brick, miami is going to cash them bricks for the score to go the other way. Out the gate, Miami is going to play ghetto ball and by half time, we will know who will be getting the ball due to Miami's hot hand game plan. Thanks to James and the interview, Chicago now knows your scheme.

              Chicago total under 179.5 5U

              Chicago +5 1U

              Small play on chicago because I'm giving them this one chance only, a do or die like OKC last night to redeem themselves or no more playing OKC or Chicago for the rest of the conference series.

              Best of luck to me because I needed this. Gets get them and show me them bookie's money......
              Comment
              • NBA_Brosuf
                Restricted User
                • 02-14-11
                • 2489

                #672
                chicago 2H +5 1U

                Chicago total under 90 2H 1U

                Sweep or go bust. Lets go
                Comment
                • alanspoil
                  SBR High Roller
                  • 07-17-10
                  • 233

                  #673
                  Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
                  chicago 2H +5 1U

                  Chicago total under 90 2H 1U

                  Sweep or go bust. Lets go
                  OT will count?
                  Or bet voided and refunded!
                  Comment
                  • NBA_Brosuf
                    Restricted User
                    • 02-14-11
                    • 2489

                    #674
                    Originally posted by alanspoil
                    OT will count?
                    Or bet voided and refunded!
                    OT in 2H counts for me. If I were to play the 4th quarter, it will not count OT.

                    Chicago has buried me for the 2nd time in both series. I had a hard time recovering from the ATL/CHI series and now, they did it to me again in the Miami series.

                    The game starting out running with the under at hand and ended up being under down the stretch but Chicago did it to me again. Rose had the chance to be up by 1 with his free throws and he bricked the first one. James going the other way called for offensive foul. Rose the other way, I was expecting him to drive hard and see if he can get the foul for an easier win but Rose must be tired or something because his clutch shot was awful. After that OT hits, I just wanted Chicago to lose on purpose for screwing us backers. Same thing with OKC the night before, after our ticket crashed, I hoped that OKC will lose their azz off in OT for screwing us backers too.

                    I'm just torn and scorned about the NBA as of late. I was looking for some amazing things happening but I got some amazing stupid things be happening.

                    The public have been cashing by a fluke of nature.

                    I don't know if I will play tonight to recover myself because Chicago had burned me sickening and although, it is not the Chicago's series tonight, I'm still sour in the mouth about the OKC game. IT is like a nightmare that doesn't go away. With the NFL, if a game loses, you can no longer chase and that's ok. In the NBA, if you lose, a repeat of the same nightmare is still in the horizon.

                    I'll see about tonight's game. If I feel it, I'll push it.

                    Playoffs record 45-49-1 +29u left to play
                    Comment
                    • NBA_Brosuf
                      Restricted User
                      • 02-14-11
                      • 2489

                      #675
                      okc game under 199 10U

                      elimination game under despite all the figures pointing to over. Fade the public once again. Good luck public. My biggest play of the year I suppose. Go big or go home.
                      Comment
                      • NBA_Brosuf
                        Restricted User
                        • 02-14-11
                        • 2489

                        #676
                        Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
                        okc game under 199 10U winner

                        elimination game under despite all the figures pointing to over. Fade the public once again. Good luck public. My biggest play of the year I suppose. Go big or go home.
                        Finally some breathing room. Sheesh!!!!!


                        Playoffs record 46-49-1 +39u left to play
                        Comment
                        • alanspoil
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 07-17-10
                          • 233

                          #677
                          Good pick Under. Congrats
                          Comment
                          • NBA_Brosuf
                            Restricted User
                            • 02-14-11
                            • 2489

                            #678
                            Originally posted by alanspoil
                            Good pick Under. Congrats
                            Thanks alan

                            I have no play tonight because I'm confused. My heart says one thing but my stats are looking the other way.

                            -Ref Greg Willard is a whistle happy calling machine. He must be reffing these OKC/Dallas series to jack up his points per game at 200+? (+)

                            -I saw the line movement where either the public or sharps be buying the over last night and it was at 82% which drives the prices up by half a point to 180, considering that it opens at 179.5. Right now, looks like the public is buying the under to give it equal actions on both sides. If it is indeed the sharps who are buying early for the lean on the over then I guess that is the play? (+)

                            -The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against Chicago (-)

                            -In regulation from game 4, the total ended at 85+85=170. That is about 10 less than the total that we are looking at. Can both teams do a little bit better to make up for that 10 points differential? The trio got their usual 70 points like always so no matter if if james is hot one game and cold the next, there is always bosh or wade to make up the difference. Rose had a bad game. Shot poorly at the 3 ball. If anything, Rose is a competitor and when he sunk, he is going to try to do better in the next. Will Rose make up for the 10 points difference that will push for the over at 180? Also chicago shot 77% from the free throw line. That's not good. Both teams shot around 40 to 42%. Good defense there but good defense in Miami. Now we are going to Chicago so is the tempo going to change? Now lets see something here. I will use the 180 as a grading scale for all them games where chicago played miami in Chicago in 2011.

                            Game 2 Under at 160
                            Game 1 Over at 185
                            Feb 24th Over at 182
                            Jan 15th Over at 195

                            So we have 3-1 over factor at 180 total when playing in Chicago against Miami in 2011. (+)

                            -The elimination game under theory (-)

                            Sequence play

                            Game 5???
                            O
                            O
                            U
                            O
                            U
                            U
                            O
                            U
                            O
                            U

                            So we see here that there has not been a 3peat of the OOO or UUU. It looks like it wants to go U (-)

                            +3 and -2 = +1 Small lean on the over?

                            Chicago total Over 179.5 1U

                            I do not believe in a back to back OT so the Over value for OT here is a non factor. SBR friends and families are on the under and once again, I'm torn in between.


                            Chicago +165 series 5U to win 8.25U


                            I am confused to what to do with the sides or how to hedge my way out of this. Either Let Chicago run and hope for a win tonight or bet against Chicago to hedge myself out of it. If Chicago wins tonight, I'll bet on Miami for the next one? I don't know and I need to ask for a help line to how to play the hedging system.
                            Comment
                            • NBA_Brosuf
                              Restricted User
                              • 02-14-11
                              • 2489

                              #679
                              After some good tips from our SBR members, I decided to play Miami for 3U.

                              So if Miami wins tonight ATS, I'll be down less. If Miami loses tonight, my series bet is still good and I need to play the next game to recovery the loss. I'll probably be asking for more tips if there is a game 6.

                              Miami +3.5 3U

                              Yeh, Miami just gained an extra half a point although I think that Chicago is going to play tough and win tonight. Who knows, I am not in a position to make such call. Beggars don't have a choice.
                              Comment
                              • JR007
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 02-21-10
                                • 5279

                                #680
                                Comment
                                • Love The Action
                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                  • 11-08-10
                                  • 10952

                                  #681
                                  Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
                                  After some good tips from our SBR members, I decided to play Miami for 3U.

                                  So if Miami wins tonight ATS, I'll be down less. If Miami loses tonight, my series bet is still good and I need to play the next game to recovery the loss. I'll probably be asking for more tips if there is a game 6.

                                  Miami +3.5 3U

                                  Yeh, Miami just gained an extra half a point although I think that Chicago is going to play tough and win tonight. Who knows, I am not in a position to make such call. Beggars don't have a choice.

                                  I thought of hedging out of my Bulls series bet as well. However, upon all considerations, I chose against it. My big play on the total, as long as it hits, will still show profit for this series regardless of the outcome on the side of this game.

                                  The reason I didn't hedge is because I think the Bulls probably win in this spot and a bet on Miami would just result in losing more units.

                                  Plus, why not bet the ML instead of the total? Here is my thinking:

                                  • If the Bulls don't cover, they are not going to win.
                                  • Therefore, the Heat ML is the better play if you like the Heat.
                                  • The +155 would have allowed you to put one less unit at risk to win the same amount.
                                  • If you really felt confident in your play on the over, you could have also parlayed the Heat ML plus your play on the over and risked 1x to win 3.5x.

                                  I sort of liked those options better than just playing a 3 points spread. It would have allowed you to win as much or more, by risking less units. Just my opinion though.

                                  Good luck on all of your plays.
                                  Comment
                                  • JR007
                                    SBR Hall of Famer
                                    • 02-21-10
                                    • 5279

                                    #682
                                    Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
                                    After some good tips from our SBR members, I decided to play Miami for 3U.

                                    So if Miami wins tonight ATS, I'll be down less. If Miami loses tonight, my series bet is still good and I need to play the next game to recovery the loss. I'll probably be asking for more tips if there is a game 6.

                                    Miami +3.5 3U

                                    Yeh, Miami just gained an extra half a point although I think that Chicago is going to play tough and win tonight. Who knows, I am not in a position to make such call. Beggars don't have a choice.
                                    HOPE I DID NOT GIVE YOU THE WRONG ADVICE...
                                    Comment
                                    • NBA_Brosuf
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 02-14-11
                                      • 2489

                                      #683
                                      Originally posted by Love The Action
                                      I thought of hedging out of my Bulls series bet as well. However, upon all considerations, I chose against it. My big play on the total, as long as it hits, will still show profit for this series regardless of the outcome on the side of this game.

                                      The reason I didn't hedge is because I think the Bulls probably win in this spot and a bet on Miami would just result in losing more units.

                                      Plus, why not bet the ML instead of the total? Here is my thinking:

                                      • If the Bulls don't cover, they are not going to win.
                                      • Therefore, the Heat ML is the better play if you like the Heat.
                                      • The +155 would have allowed you to put one less unit at risk to win the same amount.
                                      • If you really felt confident in your play on the over, you could have also parlayed the Heat ML plus your play on the over and risked 1x to win 3.5x.

                                      I sort of liked those options better than just playing a 3 points spread. It would have allowed you to win as much or more, by risking less units. Just my opinion though.

                                      Good luck on all of your plays.
                                      I was going to ask you for a second look into it too but time was ticking for me. I still have a gang load to learn about this hedging system play. Oh well, losing is a part of learning. I'll do better next time. Thanks LTA

                                      HOPE I DID NOT GIVE YOU THE WRONG ADVICE
                                      the advice is good but not the best value after I did some further thinking. No problem Jr. Got to make the move somehow JR. Thanks for everything.

                                      Now back to the 2H .
                                      Comment
                                      • NBA_Brosuf
                                        Restricted User
                                        • 02-14-11
                                        • 2489

                                        #684
                                        Miami +1 5U 2H

                                        Looking forward to a Miami runner for a back door cover. Chicago win but by less than 3? LOL
                                        Comment
                                        • NBA_Brosuf
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 02-14-11
                                          • 2489

                                          #685
                                          Chicago total Over 179.5 1U Loser
                                          Looks like my strength in capping total is not all that great. So why didn't it go over? Wade choking? Turnovers? Trio not getting their 70 points between the 3? Rose choking? Free throws doing poor? You know that if there is another game, I'll play the over again right? LOL

                                          Playoffs record 46-50-1 +38u left to play

                                          Miami +3.5 3U winner
                                          Playoffs record 47-50-1 +41u left to play

                                          Miami +1 5U 2H winner
                                          Playoffs record 48-50-1 +46u left to play

                                          Chicago Series 5U loser
                                          Playoffs record 48-51-1 +41u left to play

                                          Ended up hedging myself out of this series. Thanks to SBR tippers. Gutsy move by me to buy more at 2H.

                                          I have to say that Chicago choked. Miami was shooting horribly and you can't event take their loss for your gain? You dance with them without putting them out and they will still be a dangerous team along the stretch. What a game indeed. I will never forget this game. I can not bet on Chicago because they have killed me and scorned me so much. I can not bet against them because they are still the Chicago team to beat. I'm glad Chicago is out so now we can focus on a new series.

                                          Should I buy the Final series? I think I shall not because I do not know how to hedge when on the losing end. I ended up up 2 units after all said and done. What a lucky night for me.
                                          Comment
                                          • alanspoil
                                            SBR High Roller
                                            • 07-17-10
                                            • 233

                                            #686
                                            Great calls! Congratulations
                                            Comment
                                            • JR007
                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                              • 02-21-10
                                              • 5279

                                              #687
                                              Comment
                                              • NBA_Brosuf
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 02-14-11
                                                • 2489

                                                #688
                                                Originally posted by alanspoil
                                                Great calls! Congratulations
                                                Originally posted by alanspoil
                                                Great calls! Congratulations
                                                Originally posted by JR007
                                                Thank you and Thank you to Jr. He gave me the insider to go with Miami last night.

                                                For the first game of the Final

                                                Opened at 188 and strong money so far riding on the under. I do not have the tools to see whether it is sharp's money or the public money but it is someone's money.

                                                186 is a good buy and I don't think it will drop any further. If it is going to drop further because the public will pound the under, I will have to buy more units at such value.

                                                Dallas has weapons and with weapons, they are going to score. Miami trio had an off night to win them bulls. I'm sure the trio in miami at home is not going to skunk with their personal points per game like they did in Chicago. You are at home and you feed off your crowd so you will light that show off. Dallas has been putting up some ridiculous top notch points just to stay competitive with OKC. You can say that OKC is a team that Dallas is using to up their points and to better themselves. I have not seen Dallas putting up them high points in consecutive games since a few months ago where they were doing 100+ points per game, back to back.

                                                The Chicago series spread dances around the 179 to 181. It is given because Chicago is all about defense. With Dallas, they have some defense but not enough because they do allowed OKC to jack them points up as well. Now with the spread dancing around the 186 marker, which is just 5 points higher than the chicago series but a fully dangerous and depth Dallas team, that line is a fluke of nature and probably a mistake by them Vegas odds.

                                                The last 10 times that these two goonies played and if you set the total at 186, it goes over 8-2.

                                                Dallas game over 186.5 3U

                                                If the ref assignments or total dropping because of a massive move to the under by the public, I will buy 2 more units later.

                                                Defense comes later. First game is always an exhibition game with both teams not knowing how to scheme the other team. In other words, good chances that 1 team will be hot and they will take care of the over total for us.
                                                Comment
                                                • Love The Action
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 11-08-10
                                                  • 10952

                                                  #689
                                                  Good call on you Miami plays yesterday.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • alanspoil
                                                    SBR High Roller
                                                    • 07-17-10
                                                    • 233

                                                    #690
                                                    With you on ths Over. I like it
                                                    Comment
                                                    • alanspoil
                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                      • 07-17-10
                                                      • 233

                                                      #691
                                                      Any picks today?
                                                      I'll wait for a while. Thank you
                                                      Comment
                                                      • NBA_Brosuf
                                                        Restricted User
                                                        • 02-14-11
                                                        • 2489

                                                        #692
                                                        Originally posted by alanspoil
                                                        Any picks today?
                                                        I'll wait for a while. Thank you
                                                        I already bought over when it was at 186.5

                                                        Now it goes up to 188 to 188.5 which gives me more value on my over. I'm not buying anymore though. Maybe a 2H play but we will see.

                                                        Good luck with our bets.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • alanspoil
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 07-17-10
                                                          • 233

                                                          #693
                                                          Better tomorrow (only 4q was right!!)
                                                          Thank you again
                                                          Comment
                                                          • NBA_Brosuf
                                                            Restricted User
                                                            • 02-14-11
                                                            • 2489

                                                            #694
                                                            Originally posted by alanspoil
                                                            Better tomorrow (only 4q was right!!)
                                                            Thank you again
                                                            Playoffs record 48-52-1 +38u left to play

                                                            Sorry alan... I guess I missed reading the early line movement for clues.

                                                            Right now, early line showing that some money is pounding the over. It has reflected and goes up half a point. Lean is on the over but the question now is when to buy to get the best value.

                                                            I think 186 will be as low as it will go so I'm buying now. This final series is good with the martingale system. Since I lost last game, I am going to double up my wager and roll the dice.

                                                            Important information that I remember reading is that someone on the Dallas team said how horrible they shot in the 1st and 3rd quarter. 17 points each. That's pathetic and they will improve in next game. If not then Heat wins the series and play heat martingale until they win the final.

                                                            Final game 2 total over 186 6U

                                                            System A: Game 3 and 4, Martingale and picking Dallas to cover and ATS to win either 1 of the 2 games. If NBA is fix or zig zag, I will win.

                                                            Note: Filter if Dallas does not score more than 17 in 1st or 3rd quarters of game 2, do not play system A. Play Heat until they win series.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • NBA_Brosuf
                                                              Restricted User
                                                              • 02-14-11
                                                              • 2489

                                                              #695
                                                              System A: Game 3 and 4, Martingale and picking Dallas to cover and ATS to win either 1 of the 2 games. If NBA is fix or zig zag, I will win.

                                                              Note: Filter if Dallas does not score more than 17 in 1st or 3rd quarters of game 2, do not play system A. Play Heat until they win series.
                                                              This game 2 is a no play on sides for me. I rather watch it out to see my next position on who to pick in game 3.

                                                              Although I would prefer dallas to win for an easier game 3 in Dallas for them to win again. If Dallas lose game 2, it will be hard to trust dallas to win at home so my betting formula will look like this.

                                                              If Heat win, game 3, play dallas small 1x

                                                              If dallas win, game 3, play dallas a little bigger 2x

                                                              This would set me up for a martingale chase in game 4, riding on Dallas again.

                                                              I'm betting that the league is not allowing for a sweep.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • NBA_Brosuf
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 02-14-11
                                                                • 2489

                                                                #696
                                                                game 2 totals winner
                                                                Playoffs record 49-52-1 +44u left to play

                                                                Originally posted by NBA_Brosuf
                                                                This game 2 is a no play on sides for me. I rather watch it out to see my next position on who to pick in game 3. Although I would prefer dallas to win for an easier game 3 in Dallas for them to win again. If Dallas lose game 2, it will be hard to trust dallas to win at home so my betting formula will look like this. If Heat win, game 3, play dallas small 1x If dallas win, game 3, play dallas a little bigger 2x This would set me up for a martingale chase in game 4, riding on Dallas again. I'm betting that the league is not allowing for a sweep.
                                                                As soon as the line opens on my side, I'm taking dallas 2x. With this system play, no need to do any research. Trust the playoff statistics?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • alanspoil
                                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                                  • 07-17-10
                                                                  • 233

                                                                  #697
                                                                  And Over cashed. TY
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • NBA_Brosuf
                                                                    Restricted User
                                                                    • 02-14-11
                                                                    • 2489

                                                                    #698
                                                                    Originally posted by alanspoil
                                                                    And Over cashed. TY

                                                                    I'm just pissed that over backers had to sweat it out at the last few minutes. Some over backers got tied at 188 and some even loss at buying it later at 188.5 and beyond. Although it is a win for us, I'm a people's person and I want us all to cash if we play the same side. I blamed on Miami for not getting the job done. James bricked a technical freebie and Miami played the clock just to brick with 4 minutes left. If you are playing the clock, at least give the ball to your hot hand of the game, Wade. James be holding that ball with 3 seconds left just to brick or gets a traveling called. In the Nba, a traveling is the most embarrassing thing ever. Traveling is something that a 5th grader would do. Grown men in the Pro league should not be traveling.

                                                                    This next total play here, If I were you alan, I wouldn't play it because I'm on my own with this one.

                                                                    I really hate going against LTA with the totals and I'm like 0-5 when I go against him.

                                                                    But, I do have my reasons for going against him.

                                                                    Playoff is getting tougher and defense is gonna step up however, the way I see it is that dallas had a dry spell and turn overs which kills a lot of that time off the clock and miami obviously choking and scoring just 5 points in the last 7 minutes, another time losing factor but yet, the total still creeped up to 188 with minimum fouling game. This will be as low as you can go and if you allow history to repeat itself on a back to back, you are the weakest link and I will curse you forever. LOL

                                                                    Miami took 30 shots behind the arc and only connecting 9. That is way too many attempts. Those failed attempts could have been saved for them 2 balls.

                                                                    Dallas, when played in their own house and if we set the total of 188 throughout, they are something like 6-2 riding on the over in this playoff.

                                                                    Both teams did not get to the line much but yet, the total still creep to 188.

                                                                    The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Dallas.

                                                                    Dirk plays better at home. Another possible 30+ games which means more points.

                                                                    Bosh and James did not hit their average in game 2. Possible they both will inch on up to beat their game 2 portfolio.

                                                                    Since I'm going against LTA, I am riding small on this one.

                                                                    game 3 totals over 188 1U

                                                                    In game 3 here, everything is pointing to Dallas. Dallas is something like 7-1 at home SU. Dallas has a flawless record playing their home opener in any of their series. Dallas is still good ATS.

                                                                    However, the only thing that is scary to think about is that Miami has a revenge mentality going into game 3. They will show Dallas no mercy and they will not kill the clock like they have done so and choked in game 2. If Miami is going to win, it will be by a mile. The revenge theory is good here because Miami let Dallas to stole one at their home.

                                                                    I am leaning on Miami for game 3 but my system play does not allow me to pick Miami.

                                                                    I still have a few days to monitor this line movement to see where the public play.

                                                                    to be continue......
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • NBA_Brosuf
                                                                      Restricted User
                                                                      • 02-14-11
                                                                      • 2489

                                                                      #699
                                                                      Dallas is still good ATS. They are undefeated at home opener in every series.

                                                                      If you take away all of them turn overs by the Dallas squad that leads to Miami's point, you still have an even ball game with Dirk being cold for most of the game.

                                                                      It is wise to buy dallas for the series now. The team who wins the first away game usually wins the series about 70 something percentage of the time.

                                                                      I would not count out Dallas yet. They are starting to play some effective schemes and who knows what else or tricks they have in their bag for game 3.

                                                                      One thing I know for sure. With stars on heat, I am already smelling a power trip. James thinks that he's team captain when Wade is obviously the better player. So who holds the ball and tell people to clear on out so they can kill off that shot clock and brick? It is non other than Lebrick. It should be wade doing that since he had the hot hands for the game. Miami's weapon is to feed the trio who has the hot hands for such game. Lebrick calls for travels, bricking desperate shots cost them the game. Not only that, how the hell do you miss a freebie technical? So embarrassing like them traveling calls. My last traveling violation came in 5th grade. Those are fundamentals violations to learn at a younger age. You do not make those mistakes at the professional level. Same thing can be said about hitting gutter balls in the PBA for bowlers. Chit happens I know but that is an indicator that you're no good.

                                                                      Miami needs to fix their stupid breakdowns if they want to continue to win. Miami is still the better team. Game 1 and 2 is nothing but Heat's espn highlights but still, the only mentioning highlight that is still fresh in my mind is that last shot by Dirk. 1 freaking Dallas highlights going up against Heats by a ton of highlights.

                                                                      If Dallas is depending on Heat to choke to win, I think Dallas is the handicap in this series.

                                                                      Heat is no OKC where OKC does not learn their lesson. Heat still tough and the stats be showing Dallas. I'm torn in between.
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • alanspoil
                                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                                        • 07-17-10
                                                                        • 233

                                                                        #700
                                                                        So again Over, with you
                                                                        Comment
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