Nba_Brosuf mid season to finals cherry picking

[NBA_Brosuf]

So again Over, with you

OKC series when played in Dallas game totals
game 1 233
game 2 206
game 5 196

Lakers series
game 3 190
game 4 208

Portland series
game 1 170
game 2 190
game 5 175

So we see here that the last 5 home games for Dallas, it went over the average posted score of 188 for tomorrow's game.

Now out of the 4 teams, Lakers, OKC, Portland, Miami, which one of these teams that you do not trust their confidence when it comes to scoring?

Portland is the weakest link. Even if Dallas scores a ton, you still need for the other team to put up their end for the over to hit.

Miami's game 1 and 2 both had scores of 92 and 93 so their average for this series is at 92.5.

As long as Miami can continue to hit in their 90's and lose game 3, it is going to be an over game.

I'm not too shy about losing game 3 to the under. Once again, at least I have a reason to bet on the over and that is all more important. Also, looks like I bought at 188 when the pricing now is at 188.5 to 189. Another good value.

Good luck with our bets and like always, even with a lose, at least we had reasons to why we are betting thus ways.

[NBA_Brosuf]

With the public pounding the heat, this gives my Martingale Dallas chasing system even more value.

It doesn't matter if Dallas lose in game 3, I still have game 4 and 5 to chase Dallas again.

Actually scratch that. I have a filter to my system.

If dallas loses in game 3 and 4, the series will be 3-1 in favor of the heat. Game 5 will be an elimination game so game 5 bet goes to Miami. Since it is still in Dallas, value will be in the spread as Heat will probably be fav but not by that much.

Game 3 bet Dallas x2, if lose
Game 4 bet Dallas x5, if lose
Game 5 bet Miami 10x, if lose

Game 6 in Miami ALLL INNNNNN bet Miami, if lose I'll don't know what else to say but to quit and forget about watching game 7 because I'm done. NBA is fixed. LOL


Now, I am going to see if I can get a better line on Dallas. Hopefully more money is coming into Miami to get better value on the Dallas line.

to be continue.......

[alanspoil]

I like Dallas ML too.

[NBA_Brosuf]

I like Dallas ML too.

Ok Alan, I will tail you...


With spread now at -2 for Dallas, it is a good gamble to take the ML for Dallas.

However, if I buy the ML for Dallas 2U will give me 1.53U. For taking the ML, that is a 25% cut that I'm losing out.

I'll ride with the spread and see what's up. If it is a close game, that 2 points will not help me much and I'll be sweating bullets.

Dallas game 3 -2 2U

[NBA_Brosuf]

I'm sorry alan. I failed like always, thinking that I have some inside info but failed on the totals play. If you want to tail someone, tail LTA. I will be doing that from now on. I've learned some of my skills from him and like always, the student has yet to beat the teacher.

Now with Dallas losing first game at home, I am going to chase them again in game 2. I just have to wait to get the best line possible now.

I still think that heat is the better team but the chasing system, I must follow it or I will pull my hair out if the system wins and I chicken out from not betting on it.

I like to follow you someday. Maybe you see something good.

Playoffs record 49-54-1 +41u left to play

[NBA_Brosuf]

Whoever gets to the 3 wins marker first will win the series. So bet on the 3-x winner in the elimination game.

Until then, Dallas still has one more shot to win 1 at home somewhere, somehow.

If Miami wins game 4, game 5, Miami will let dallas win one so Miami can close it out with their fans cheering them on in game 6. The NBA does not like a 4-1 series for the final. It is rigged for a 4-2 or a 4-3.

Once I hit the Dallas winner at home, I'm going hard with Miami to close out the series. My chasing system needs to cash before I get to Play Miami.

[alanspoil]

TY, Brosuf. Iìll check LTA too

[NBA_Brosuf]

Dallas -3 5U

With system play, you don't need to do any research.

I am tailing LTA on the under chase as well. I'm hoping for such line to get inflated to beat the closure.

Chasing model = 2U, if lose, 5U, if lose, 10U and hoping that 10U will be the final game of the nba. I hate chasing anything more than 10U. I'll think about it when that time comes around. Crossing fingers and a rabbit's foot.

[alanspoil]

Yes, corossing fingers!! GL

[NBA_Brosuf]

Yes, corossing fingers!! GL

I'm crossing my toes too LOL


Under 187 2U

Chasing the under game until the final is over. This should be good.

[JR007]

A little surprised..the total has not come down more

I WOULD WATCH THE BOARD FOR A BIT BEFORE PLAYING THE TOTAL

[NBA_Brosuf]

A little surprised..the total has not come down more

I WOULD WATCH THE BOARD FOR A BIT BEFORE PLAYING THE TOTAL

yeah, public pounding over but yet, the total still remains or barely crawling.

[JR007]

Right now i see the play on the side as being dallas

[NBA_Brosuf]

Right now i see the play on the side as being dallas

You have to teach me some of them skills someday.

Right now, I see that more public's money pounding on the over which drives the total pricing up half a point.

[JR007]

Sure...total still favors the over on sportspy but the side is tightening up.....

[NBA_Brosuf]

push and winner on the under

Playoffs record 50-54-2 +43u left to play

Push ruins my system play. Well at least I'm over this whole dallas winning at home stats theory. No more betting on dallas this series. I just can not bet on a team that run tie games when the other team be shooting 39% first half.

The under cashed on my first try with the under system play so there is no more chasing the under.

Overall, today is a small winning day. Could of cash on the 2h under news that dirk has the flu and when 1st half scores high, 2nd half is a slow play. It just that my cards are already riding on a total of 7U and didn't want to up bet on it. Money management right?

Time to do some research for the next game and you bet that my money is not riding on Dallas. I lost all hope with that team. They only wins if the other team be choking with their come from behind fiasco.

Can't wait for game 6 in Miami. I'm gonna pound on Miami at home and possible an elimination game. If Dallas loses in game 5, I'm expecting game 6 spread to be more than -4 or something higher.

[NBA_Brosuf]

I have enough of riding on Dallas's donkey diick. LOL

If you hold a Dallas card, can you honestly tell me that you think the Mavs played better today? When your go to guy Dirk, he be bricking, how is your confidence when he be bricking?

Once again, the confidence bet is on Miami. Even with a run, the Heat is still contending and Dallas be scared shietless knowing that they are coming for them.

First half, Heat shooting 39% against Mavs 50% and yet, the game is still tied. That there shows you the power of Miami.

I gave Dallas chances to shine but they still can't deliver. The most they ever gave me is a tie. LOL

Wait for the elimination game, in Miami and bet on Miami for the win. Confidence is there and if Dallas comes from behind and win it all, I don't mind losing on such ticket either. If Dallas can break all odds and records in the making just to win, I'll still be happy for Dallas and I'll be happy that I lost.

[alanspoil]

4q saved us. Crossed fingers helped!!!

[alanspoil]

Game 5: I'll stay away. GL to you, Brosuf!

[NBA_Brosuf]

Game 5: I'll stay away. GL to you, Brosuf!

I think I will tail you on this one. This game 5 here is questionable with the lines being unstable.

I'm looking at Dallas +1.5 now? It opens at -2. You are talking about Dal losing big time value about 3.5 points.

Need more research to see who's out like Haywood and Dirk is really ill or something.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Game 5 Over 184.5 2U

Sides playing is all crazy how money be pouring into Mia camp. Since I am not going to play Dallas, I can't play Mia if they are not playing at home.

This is not an elimination game so both sides are guaranteed for 1 more game. Whoever wins, I don't care. I'm playing total in this game. Dallas arena is still due for an over game. When it goes back to MIA, expect adjustment on both sides and it'll hit the under. If the over hits tonight, the total line for Vegas will get slightly inflated to hold the value for the under in Miami for game 6.

Best of luck to myself since Alan chickened out. LOL justkidding bro.

[JR007]

they finally dropped the line after all those unders....I like your contrarian..thinking......most will be sucked in to the under play...given the way the series has gone...but tough to bet against a under play the way the defenses have been playing...169 points the last game.

[NBA_Brosuf]

they finally dropped the line after all those unders....I like your contrarian..thinking......most will be sucked in to the under play...given the way the series has gone...but tough to bet against a under play the way the defenses have been playing...169 points the last game.

Yes, totally understandable but what I am betting on is giving the dallas arena one more chance since tonight might be their last night to play at the high scoring dallas arena.

I'm not satisfy with a 188 total points at the dallas arena in this series. Something tells me that such arena is itching to get more. Good defense is preventing that but I'm also paying to see more fouls shootings which will make up for them good defensive drives. I will be looking at the 24 second shot clock and hoping that both teams play their plays before the 10 seconds marker is up and if you can not convert a basket, at least get a foul and shoot for 2.

I'm giving the Dallas arena just 1 more chance for it to happen. I already gave the Dallas team their chances but now, I'm giving the dallas arena just 1 more chance to make it or break it.

I tossed a coin and it says over so yeah. LOL

[JR007]

Just a thought...i do not bet on-line but Dallas 1Q might be worth a look......Dallas has not got off to a good start all series

[NBA_Brosuf]

Just a thought...i do not bet on-line but Dallas 1Q might be worth a look......Dallas has not got off to a good start all series

Due theory eh?

Umm no

There are some due theory that I like to play but I only use the due theory as last resort but only if it can intensify the confidence on my play. In other words, I wrap the due theory around what I already planning to pick. LOL

Dallas has not gotten a lot of things done and I'm not betting that they are going to make their own records in this game here. Maybe some other games but not this game. This game just smells bad thus all. From -2 to +2 in 2 days. That smells bad for business there.

[NBA_Brosuf]

game 5 under 2H 92.5 1U

Hedging my play? LOL

Tired feet will slow down. Wade hurt not being productive. Can't shoot lights out again or 3 ball so good in 2H. Buy with confidence.

[NBA_Brosuf]

Winner on total game and loser on 2H.

I can't believe how much energy these two teams had in the 2H. It is not even the same team sort of but oh well, at least it falls into my play for the next one. It will be interesting to see how generous the total line for the next game.

to be continue......


Playoffs record 51-55-2 +44u left to play

[Love The Action]

I will have a big play in game 6..perhaps my second biggest play of this season ...how about you?

[NBA_Brosuf]

I will have a big play in game 6..perhaps my second biggest play of this season ...how about you?

I too will have a big play in game 6 but no need to ask for my opinion, I'm with you.


Just roughly 2 more games left and maybe next game is possible it for Dallas, Got to up my Units and start shooting some bullets.

Write it up LTA.. I'm down to learn how you are doing it. See you in your thread soon.

[JR007]

nice call dude !!!!!!!!!

[alanspoil]

Waiting for the big play!!

[alanspoil]

Best of luck tomorrow guys

[alanspoil]

m on Dallas +5.GL

[NBA_Brosuf]

m on Dallas +5.GL

I will tail you alan. Even if nba is fix for a mia win, Dallas will keep it close and take a back door cover. Game 1 and 2 in Mia, it was close enough.


Dallas game 6 +5 3U


Stats represent the playoff vs. game 5

Dallas shooting 68% behind the arc when their playoff average is about 40% .
Miami shooting 40% behind the arc when their playoff avg is about 35%. They both will come down to earth.

both teams shot 53% to 56% FG in game 5. miami and dallas averages about 44% FG. They both will come down to earth.

mia avg 91.8 ppg and dal avg 92.6 ppg. 92.6+91.8= 184.4. This is lower than the posted total.

Dirk will continue to get his points.
Terry had 21. Terry will come down to earth.
JJ had 17. JJ do not get 17 consistently so JJ will come down to earth.
Chandler had 13. No Chandler, you should get 6 if you're lucky.

Bosh had 19 which is about right.
James had 17. At his house, he is going to try to get some more. About 25 or so.
Wade had 23. He too is going to get a little bit more about 27.
Chalmer can shoot indeed and he had 15. That is 5 3's. No more of that Chalmer. You will get 3 if you're lucky in game 6.
Miller went 3-4 behind the arc. Miller should be cold. 2 or less for miller.

What I like about both teams is that they both only took around 70 shots per team. I like for them to continue to play
the slow game to eat off the shot clock and to continue to take 70 or lesser attempts at that basket. With horrible
shootings expected by both teams, it will be an under game. The under game is the trend to follow in this series.

Game 1 in mia total was 176
Game 2 in mia total was 188
The averages between these two games in mia is 182 which is lower than the posted total for game 6.

2 ref favoring the under and 1 is slightly over at 190. Averages of these refs giving me a 185 which is still lower than the posted total of 187. Ref small lean on the under.

Elimination factor is big on the final games for the under. The game is back to Mia and if Mia be leading, expecting them
to slow the pace down to a crawl to eat up the clock (it is miami style) in the 2H.

I bet with confidence that both teams are not going to lay 100+ points per team on a back to back run like this. Their series stats does
not show this trend so why should they do another 100+ game now? Is this the OKC/DAL series or what?

Bottom line, defense win's championship so whoever wants to win, they are going to think about defense first and offense later.

What I'm shooting for is if the over hits, I want Miami to win so that we can have another final game 7 to play the under again. All in under in that game.
If game 6 over hits by a yard again, the total will continue to go up more which will give us more value on the under.

Been tracking the line for the total and honey just doesn't move after the initial under buy by sharps. Once it stayed at 187, honey continues to stay there for days.

Elimination game 6 under 187 10U

Go big or go home. If lose, hope Mia win game and 20U in game 7.

Bet with confidence and Tailing with my other srb buddies. Good luck and lets break them bookies guys.

[NBA_Brosuf]

alan, you got it right again...

maybe you should cap games and allow me to follow.

This was a fun journey and I'll look forward to see the next run in the NFL and that is only if there is one. I'll be looking out for someone to tail for the NFL. Till then, see you guys around.

Playoffs record 52-56-2 +37u ending up the season with a little bit on the positive side which is always a good side.